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© Research & Development Unit. After the military war is over, the Economic War will begin…

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Presentation on theme: "© Research & Development Unit. After the military war is over, the Economic War will begin…"— Presentation transcript:

1 © Research & Development Unit

2 After the military war is over, the Economic War will begin…

3 What is this Economic War?

4 This war is all about ensuring …

5 No Sri Lankan goes to bed hungry Cheap food strategy - so that the people will have enough to eat All Sri Lankans should have access to good health facilities and medicine Ensuring that all the citizens have access to good quality education at least up to secondary school level.

6 Educating girls should be emphasized – paving the way for them to be educated mothers in the future. English, ICT, Science, Technology and Math should be given pride of place in the sphere of education. Attract good quality Foreign Direct Investments and not fly-by-night investors who only come to rob the country. Good quality public transport should be available to all, i.e. buses, railway, MRT, etc... Good quality infrastructure is a sine qua non for rapid economic development. Therefore, wide roads, development of renewable sources of energy, good quality garbage disposal mechanism and minimizing environmental pollution paving the way for sustainable development, are areas that deserve greater emphasis.

7 The Savings habit should be improved through greater public awareness so that the country could reduce its dependence on foreign sources to fund its investments. Micro lending and SME lending should be promoted on a much bigger scale, with greater participation of women entrepreneurs on the lines of the ‘Grameen’ scheme of Bangladesh. Expand broadband connectivity throughout the country so that rural small businesses can better compete and all Sri Lankans will have access to knowledge & information. Maintain fiscal discipline.

8 O P P O R T U N I T I E S INFRASTRUCTURE DEVELOPMENT Physical Infrastructure Human Infrastructure

9 Southern Expressway-2011 Rs.20,158 Mn. by GOSL (Government of Sri Lanka) and Rs.47,037 Mn. by ADB & JBIC. Colombo-Kandy Expressway-2012 Rs.13, 000 Mn. by GOSL and Rs.52,000 Mn. Foreign. Colombo-Katunayake Expressway-2012 Rs.5,000 Mn. by GOSL and Rs.22,000 Mn. Foreign. Katunayake-Anuradhapura Road-2012 Rs.940 Mn. by GOSL and Rs.3,758 Mn. by Government of Korea. The National Highway Network-Road Improvement (A and B) – 2012 Rs.5,700 Mn. by GOSL and Rs.13,300 Mn. Foreign. Northern Expressway – 2017 Rs.90,000 Mn. Construction of Flyovers flyovers are to be constructed in Colombo city and its suburbs. Rs.6,000 Mn. by GOSL and Rs.14,000 Mn. Foreign. The Flyovers at railway crossing in Kelaniya, Pannipitiya, Orugodawatta and Gampaha The flyover at Nugegoda (Funded by the British Government at a cost of Rs. 878 Mn.) - Completed PHYSICAL INFRASTRUCTURE Construction of several Bridges - Bentota & Manampitiya (Completed) - Katuatugastota, Mannar, etc… Outer Circular Roads-2011 Rs.40,065 Mn. by GOSL and Rs.46,817 Mn. by JBIC.

10 Physical Infrastructure (Cont…) Power Generation Projects Kerawalapitiya Power Plant Rs.90 Mn. by GOSL (Funded by CEB) Rs.34,177 Mn. committed by West Coast Power Pvt Ltd. Upper Kotmale Hydro Power Plant – 2009/10 Rs.5,952 Mn by GOSL and Rs.32,267 Mn committed by JBIC. Norochcholai Coal Fired Power Plant – Phase 1 (2010/11) Rs.1,500 Mn. by GOSL and Rs.50,050 Mn. committed by EXIM Bank of China. Colombo Port Expansion Rs.19,800 Mn. by GOSL and Rs.33,000 Mn. committed by ADB and the balance Rs.33,100 Mn from Private sector Ports and Aviation Weeravilla International Air Port – 2010 Rs.19,250 Mn. by GOSL. Oluvil Port Development – 2010 Rs.1,238 Mn. by GOSL & Rs. 4,950 Mn. by the Government of Denmark Hambantota Port Development – 2011 Rs. 8,442 Mn. by GOSL and Rs.33,9770 Mn. committed by EXIM Bank of China. The Contractor M/s China Harbour Engineering Co. and SynoHydro Corporation (Joint Venture) Galle Port Development Rs.3,382 Mn. by GOSL and Rs.13,530 Mn. committed by JBIC. The consultancy contract has been awarded to M/s Pacific Consultants

11 Physical Infrastructure (Cont…) Upgrading of Colombo – Matara Railway Line Rs. 3,800 Mn. by GOSL and Rs.15,200 Mn. Foreign. Transportation Matara-Kataragama Railway Line Extension (Stage 1 & 2) Rs. 6,000 MN. by GOSL and Rs.24,000 Mn. Foreign. Light Rapid Transit (LRT) Railway System Rs.30,500 Mn. Foreign. Eastern Railway Line Rehabilitation – 2012 Rs. 900 Mn. by GOSL and Rs.3,600 Mn. Foreign. HUMAN INFRASTRUCTURE To improve the productivity of the people SL should enhance ;  Access to good health care  Access to cheaper but quality food  Access to good quality education Furthermore, year 2009 has been declared as the year of English & ICT.

12 Positioning Sri Lanka as a Knowledge Hub  Sri Lanka to be positioned as a centre for education  Private Universities – A MUST (With or without foreign collaboration). This would help SL economy by:  Reducing Foreign Exchange outflow for educational purposes  Encouraging Foreign Exchange inflow (foreign students coming to study here).  Already Sri Lanka has a pool of very knowledgeable University lecturers and professors.  The quality of our knowledge of English has to be vastly enhanced by utilizing foreign resources – preferably, the services of British trainers should be obtained to train our teachers. Human Infrastructure (Cont…)

13 2009 – YEAR OF ENGLISH & ICT Improvement of English and ICT is a pledge embedded in the Mahinda Chintana policy statement. Two task forces have been set up to promote English and ICT in 2009, which has been declared as the ‘Year of English and ICT. The Information and Communication Technology Agency (ICTA) of Sri Lanka as the apex body of Information and Communication Technology (ICT) in the country, assists the task forces. Other ICT related organisations also work with the task forces. The key focus of the ‘Year of English and ICT’ is to  Make the general public proficient in English so that, inter alia, they will have greater access to world knowledge and opportunities /capabilities in the ICT sector.  Increasing the English and ICT literacy rate  Ensuring that Sri Lanka has sufficient English teachers and ICT instructors, thereby laying the foundation for English and ICT led development.  Creating ICT awareness in Sri Lanka. Source: Human Infrastructure (Cont…)

14 How are we going to develop our exports ? Diversifying exports. Certain industries have been identified as thrust industries which are capable of crossing the US$ 1bn threshold. Greater emphasis should be accorded to these industries eg: Rubber, spices, Leather and Gem and Jewellery. Sri Lanka must also promote the export of services including those connected to construction, banking, insurance and IT sectors. Export Development

15 Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) High tech technology transfer Using local resources Goods for which there is a demand in the world market Value addition Skill development We should avoid fly-by-night investors

16 SL had Received US$ 889 mn. of FDIs in Sector-Wise Analysis CountryUS$ MnCountryUS$ Mn Malaysia150USA57 India126Sweden38 Netherlands117China27 UK87Singapore21 Luxembourg82Japan17 Hong Kong74Belgium13 Sector US$ Mn % of Total Services / Infrastructure % Telecom Sector % Power Sector889.90% Housing & Property Development202.25% IT/BPO141.58% Other222.47% Manufacturing % Textiles & Apparel Sector728.10% Rubber Products353.94% Agro-Products151.69% Electrical & Electronics151.69% Non Metallic Mineral Products121.35% Fabricated Metal101.12% Garment Accessories80.90% Other222.47% Agriculture sector30.34% Source : BOI, Sri Lanka  However, 62.2% of this was received for Telecom sector, while the broader category of Services / Infrastructure accounted for 78.4%.  The important Manufacturing sector attracted only 21.26% of total FDIs in Main Contributors to FDI

17 Harvesting Marine Resources  All this time a vast area of the coastline was inaccessible due to LTTE activities. Now,the coast line is free.  Tapping Fisheries Resources  Sri Lanka becoming self sufficient in fish  Excess to be exported - the possibility of establishing Canned fish factories in appropriate locations should be probed. At present SL’s sea territory is 08 times larger than the country and in near future the sea territory possessed by Sri Lanka would be 23 times larger than the country.

18 SME Sector Developments Developing the SME sector, which is mostly concentrated out of the Western Province, will result in the creation of employment and contribute to the development of rural areas in the country. SMEs are also important in Sri Lanka as they make up more than 80% of all businesses, account for about 35% of employment and about 20% of total industrial value addition.

19 Agricultural Developments The Agricultural Sector is the cornerstone in Sri Lanka’s economy with more than 70% of the population living in rural areas depending on agriculture for their livelihoods. Currently this sector accounts for 18% of the GDP and 30% of the employment. AGRICULTURE SECTOR – GROWTH In 2008 agriculture sector including fishing had expanded by 7.5% from 3.4%n in Paddy production had risen 23.5% and a return to peace in the eastern Sri Lanka had increased maize production and fishing. Rubber production increased by 10.3% against 4.2% in Tea increased 4.3% against a contraction of 1.8% in The coconut sector grew at 5.2% against 5.1% in AGRICULTURE SECTOR – GROWTH In 2008 agriculture sector including fishing had expanded by 7.5% from 3.4%n in Paddy production had risen 23.5% and a return to peace in the eastern Sri Lanka had increased maize production and fishing. Rubber production increased by 10.3% against 4.2% in Tea increased 4.3% against a contraction of 1.8% in The coconut sector grew at 5.2% against 5.1% in Agri Sector Share of GDP % Tea1.2% Rubber0.2% Coconut1.4% Minor Export Crops 0.4% Paddy1.8% Agri Exports Earnings (2008) 22.7% Tea15.6% Rubber1.5% Coconut2.1% Other3.5%

20 Agricultural Developments – opportunities (Cont…)  The Cargills Group has invested Rs. 500 mn. in the recently cleared - eastern province. The ‘Food City’ company has already set up two outlets in Trincomalee and plans to open six more Food City outlets in the three districts including Batticaloa and Ampara. Plans are also afoot to start vegetables & fruit purchasing centres in the east plus a rice milling plant in Ampara.  A Public-Private Partnership (PPP) between Hayleys & USAID is underway to introduce new crops such as pickles, gherkins and pineapple to the Eastern & Uva farmers. According to the US embassy the project will teach modern agricultural practices and help farmers boost incomes by switching to cash crops.  The Hayleys Group is the sole exporter of gherkins from Sri Lanka and the second largest in Asia, processing more than 8,000 tons a year. It accounts for 50% of the market for bottled pickles in Japan and is a major supplier to renowned international brands such as McDonalds, Burger King, Unilever and Heinz.  The increased levels of mechanization in farming and good demand for agriculture related equipment, particularly in the country’s Eastern Province where farmers generally farm larger areas, have boosted agri-equipment sales.

21  Government has made arrangements for farmers who own paddy lands in the Ariyalai East High Security Zone (HSZ) (Jaffna) to commence cultivation. Earlier, access was restricted in the area due to security concerns.  The CBSL's decision requesting commercial banks to dedicate 10% of their lending portfolio to agriculture.  Tea - SL is one of the world's biggest exporters of black tea. However, the island's tea producers and exporters have been increasingly attracted by green tea, for which demand is growing in Western consumer markets. Green teas also fetch higher prices, especially since the health benefits of green tea drinking have begun to be popularised.  Lifestyle retail marketing is playing a growing role in the selling of tea. Traditional tea houses were growing in sophistication and new forms like tea bars and tea kiosks had emerged. These outlets offer a modern ambience to attract sophisticated, young consumers in the same way as coffee bars. The new generation which recognizes quality is willing to pay a premium for a superior quality product.  There is growing value addition in smarter packaging, flavoured teas and ethnic teas. Chilled ready-to-drink teas were a growing segment of significant importance. Agricultural Developments – opportunities (Cont…)

22 Tourism has gone forward from packaged beach holiday attracting a low-cost, low-value market segment, to the niche markets focusing on value addition and offering specialized products such as Eco, MICE, Adventure, and Ayurveda/Spa tourism. Sri Lankan Diversity >>> TOURISM Sri Lanka “A land like no other” known as an attractive destination for travel and tourism has emerged as the 4 th highest Forex earner for Sri Lanka.

23  East Coast Developments (Rs. 7 Bn.)  Nilaweli  Passikudah  Arugam Bay Considering the huge potential for developing tourism in the Eastern Province, it is proposed to establish 03 Tourism Zones in Nilaweli, Passikudah & Arugam Bay by the year  The Kalpitiya Integrated Tourism Development Project (KITDP) - Year 2010 (Rs.15 Bn.) The Dutch bay, Portugal bay and the most attractive islands such as Karaiitive, Ippantive and Periyarachchi etc… will be developed through this initiative.  Tourism Resource Improvement (Rs.2.9 Bn) – Year 2010 This includes Negombo, Sigiriya, Anuradhapura & Nuwara Eliya, areas. The objective of the project is to attract up market tourists in the Asian Region especially Japanese tourists.  Pinnawala Open Zoo GOSL has allocated Rs. 80 Mn. to launch the Pinnawela Open Zoo project, off Rambukkana & would be the first open zoo in South East Asia  East Coast Developments (Rs. 7 Bn.)  Nilaweli  Passikudah  Arugam Bay Considering the huge potential for developing tourism in the Eastern Province, it is proposed to establish 03 Tourism Zones in Nilaweli, Passikudah & Arugam Bay by the year  The Kalpitiya Integrated Tourism Development Project (KITDP) - Year 2010 (Rs.15 Bn.) The Dutch bay, Portugal bay and the most attractive islands such as Karaiitive, Ippantive and Periyarachchi etc… will be developed through this initiative.  Tourism Resource Improvement (Rs.2.9 Bn) – Year 2010 This includes Negombo, Sigiriya, Anuradhapura & Nuwara Eliya, areas. The objective of the project is to attract up market tourists in the Asian Region especially Japanese tourists.  Pinnawala Open Zoo GOSL has allocated Rs. 80 Mn. to launch the Pinnawela Open Zoo project, off Rambukkana & would be the first open zoo in South East Asia End of War… Tourism Developments (Cont…)  According to Tourism authorities, if the ongoing conflict is resolved, Sri Lanka can annually attract over one million tourists after 2010.

24 GENERAL INFORMATION – Northern Province (2007) – Districts 05 DS Divisions15 GN Divisions435 No. of Villages 1,208 Population (1981) 738,788 Est. Population (2007) 1,237,360 Area 8,884 sq.km. Area as % 13.6% Population as % (07)6.5% Source:

25 Flourishing North (Cont…) Historically, Jaffna has been a vibrant economic hub, with an educated population and an entrepreneurial workforce. The population now stands at around 559,619, down a quarter since According to official figures, around 27,647 were internally displaced in Jaffna by September 2008, mainly due to the conflict, with a fraction due to the tsunami. Jaffna can become a strong growth contender. Robust economic development in the peninsula will improve living standards and naturally engender peace in the area. But it is imperative to learn lessons from the ongoing Eastern province development experience and apply the right mix of policies. Potential Drivers 50% of SL’s red onion 30% of fisheries and 5% of milk and eggs. Improving market linkages and infrastructure essential. Education and training in high demand, ‘knowledge’ businesses are future growth drivers. Potential Drivers 50% of SL’s red onion 30% of fisheries and 5% of milk and eggs. Improving market linkages and infrastructure essential. Education and training in high demand, ‘knowledge’ businesses are future growth drivers.

26 Flourishing North (Cont…) CORE ECONOMIC ACTIVITIES - Northern Province -  Crop Agriculture  Livestock  Fisheries  Agriculture sector – 20% of the NP GDP, but it employs over 50% of the workforce.  Fisheries sector employs 12% of the workforce Potential agri-businesses opportunities in palmyrah (jaggery, palm sugar, arrack and fibre products) and fruits and vegetables (processed/pickled/dehydrated) must also be pursued, as recognised in a 2003 ‘Jaffna Plan’ initiative. Agriculture, Fisheries & Livestock The agriculture & fisheries sector of the Northern economy responded the strongest, with average annual growth in being 2 ½ times faster than in the previous period. As infrastructure and other fundamentals are still weak, the industries and services sector are yet to show any real boost.  Jaffna farmers require information on the efficient utilisation of agricultural/farming capacity including new seed varieties, modern fertiliser application and better livestock management.  Additionally, securing property rights to farmland so that it can be used as collateral, improving access to finance and easing borrowing constraints through micro-funding schemes and small business loan guarantees should also be addressed.  The re-opening of the A9 will improve market linkages, a key to reviving Jaffna’s economic fortunes, but these must be catalysed via private-public partnerships. Currently as much as 40% of perishable produce is lost due to the lack of connectivity. Northern Contribution to the National Production Red Onion54%10.5% Chilli10%2% Potato11%0.6% Milk & Eggs4% Fisheries29% (1980)9%

27 The Vadamarachchi East area of the Jaffna peninsula is said to be endowed with large deposits of silica sand, which can be used in the manufacturing of glass products. Some of the limestone deposits in the Kankesanthurai area are already being tapped by the cement factory situated there, but more is possible. Jaffna can further benefit from its proximity to the Pulmodai mineral sand deposit and the Seruwavila iron copper deposit. Flourishing North (Cont…) Agriculture, Fisheries & Livestock (Cont…)  Setting up a Dedicated Economic Centre (DEC) e.g. Dambulla Economic Centre. Medawachchiya has been identified as a potential trading hub for Jaffna produce.  Improving storage facilities.  Setting up collection centres on identified location.  Setting up a Dedicated Economic Centre (DEC) e.g. Dambulla Economic Centre. Medawachchiya has been identified as a potential trading hub for Jaffna produce.  Improving storage facilities.  Setting up collection centres on identified location. The road link is essential not only for Jaffna farmers to sell to other markets, but also for Jaffna consumers to access cheaper goods. The cost of sea transport means that a typical basket of goods cost on average about a fifth more in Jaffna than in Colombo. Measures Under Consideration FISHERIES SECTOR No. of Fishing Families 17,751 No. of Active Fishermen 15,840 No. of fishermen allowed for fishing per day in ,371 Mining Large deposits of construction sand in Jaffna have not been systematically tapped, but will be a very useful resource when the revival of the Northern Province takes off. Re-establishment of  Kankasenthurai – Cement Factory  Paranthan – Chemical Factory Re-establishment of  Kankasenthurai – Cement Factory  Paranthan – Chemical Factory Tourism Jaffna boasts of a number of historically important sites, as well as places of religious worship that attract thousands of people. Tourism Activities  Nallur Kovil  Nagadeepa Vihara

28 Flourishing North (Cont…) Literacy is estimated at around 92.5%, which is only lower than the Western and North Western Provinces, and performance at national exams like O Level and A Level is encouraging; the A/Level pass rate in 2004 was 58%, higher than the national average of 55%. EDUCATION The conflict has greatly impacted on the education system, though performance is still good in comparison with the rest of the country. The changing aspirations of the youth of Jaffna also need attention, with their interests lying more in services than agriculture, fisheries or even manufacturing. Employment is shifting towards the services sector, with over 45% of the Northern Province workforce being employed in it. This enthusiasm for more skills and vocational training and for higher education must be catered for, and this must be championed by the private sector. Having traditionally enjoyed high levels of educational achievement, knowledge-based businesses (IT, legal and accountancy) may be the way forward for Jaffna. 85% of youth respondents want to pursue higher education, and a further 7% want to follow vocational training. Only around 6% sought work in the primary sector. Half the students are keen on computer studies and nearly a quarter on accountancy. Meanwhile 37% of firms stated that lack of English language skill is the main problem among their employees, with 23% wanting IT awareness. Source: Point Pedro Institute for Development

29 Flourishing North (Cont…) Electricity To ease electricity constraints and avoid the regular power cuts in Jaffna, a 30MW power plant at Chunnakam has just been constructed and is to be commissioned shortly. The peninsula needs around 24MW and the excess electricity generated by this new plant will help power the Jaffna islands. Northern Province Statistics >>>  lowest road density in the country.  63% of households have electricity (regional avg. 75%).  1% of households have land phone connections, (4%-Eastern, 12%-Southern and 42%-Western province).  highest mobile phone usage rates, with high spending on international calls. Infrastructure Development  Allocation of Rs. 3 bn. – to rebuild 80,000 houses  Rs. 500 million - for resettlement programmes. Jaffna will benefit from this in addition to the other three districts of Kilinochchi, Mullaitivu and Vavuniya.  Allocation of 8 acre land for a proposed industrial processing zone at Achchuveli.  The main seaport at Kankasanthurai, the airport at Palaly as well as the road links to these hubs need to be improved, if manufacturing businesses are to be attracted to the proposed industrial zone.  Allocation of 8 acre land for a proposed industrial processing zone at Achchuveli.  The main seaport at Kankasanthurai, the airport at Palaly as well as the road links to these hubs need to be improved, if manufacturing businesses are to be attracted to the proposed industrial zone. ‘Re-awakening’ Particularly important to the Jaffna farming community is the World Bank’s ‘Re-awakening’ project (formerly the North-East Irrigated Agriculture Project) which aims to restore the irrigation network in the peninsula and boost the retention of fresh water whilst preventing sea water encroachment, at Thondaimanaru and Valukkai aru.

30 Flourishing North (Cont…) Jaffna has proven itself resilient, and will undoubtedly find its way back to its past glories with a little help from private and public sector players, catalysed by business chambers. Though Jaffna is more prosperous than other districts in the Northern Province, much remains to be uncovered on the status of poverty in the region now, and the health and nutrition needs of vulnerable groups of the population. Epitome – Jaffna Some attention could usefully be placed on innovative measures to attract investment and business interest from the Jaffna diaspora, converting the accumulated financial and human capital among the diaspora into assets in the development process. From a strategic point of view, the people of Jaffna, and the agencies aiding their recovery, need to identify where Jaffna’s key strengths lie and then work aggressively to bolster them. Jaffna can propel the Northern Province to contributing 6% to national GDP, twice its current level. The challenge is how the private and public sectors work together to address these, and reap a sustainable peace dividend in the peninsula. About 75% of the Tamil population who left Sri Lanka are believed to hail from the Northern Province, and in particular from the Jaffna peninsula. Foreign remittances from the Tamil Diaspora living overseas, would further strengthen the economic development in the Northern Province.

31 GENERAL INFORMATION – Eastern Province – Districts 03 DS Divisions45 GN Divisions1,052 No. of Villages 2,378 Population (1981) 975,251 Est. Population (2007) 1,460,939 Area 9,950 sq.km. Area as % 15.2% Population as % (07)7.3% Nagenahira Navodaya - Eastern Revival - Source:

32 Nagenahira Navodaya Eastern Revival: Three Year Eastern Province Development Plan ‐ The total investment required for implementation of the proposed strategies has been estimated at Rs. 197 billion (US$ 1,840 million) of which 52% is to be met from foreign aid. The remainder is to be financed by the Government, private sector and other volunteer organizations.  Resettlement of Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs)  Revitalizing Productive Sectors and the Regional Economy ‐ Crop Agriculture ‐ Irrigation ‐ Fisheries ‐ Livestock ‐ Industries ‐ Tourism ‐ Minor, Small and Medium Scale Enterprises (MSME)  Improving Economic Infrastructure ‐ Electricity ‐ Transport (Roads, Railways) ‐ Ports ‐ Water Supply and Sanitation ‐ Rural Infrastructure Development  Strengthening Social Infrastructure and Fostering Social Services ‐ Education ‐ Health ‐ Youth Affairs and Sports ‐ Culture ‐ National Heritage ‐ Social Protection  Development of Human Settlements ‐ Environment ‐ Urban Development ‐ Housing Facilities  Rebuilding the Capacity of Public Institutions in the Province Major sectors covered by this initiative.

33 Yes my friend, It’s time to RE-WRITE history, Just look around Sri Lanka…

34 So many things are happening, that Isn’t it high time someone got negative about negativity, according to the pessimists should never have happened,

35 YES! all that is required is Curiosity, an open mind and a willingness to take risks Sri Lanka CAN… YES!!YES!!!

36 Its better to light a candle than to curse the “darkness”

37 Research & Development Unit ©New Story – The information contained in this presentation has been drawn from sources that we believe to be reliable. However, while we have taken reasonable care to maintain accuracy/completeness of the information, it should be noted that Commercial Bank of Ceylon PLC and/or its employees should not be held responsible, for providing the information or for losses or damages, financial or otherwise, suffered in consequence of using such information for whatever purpose. The views expressed in the presentation are not necessarily those of the Management of Commercial Bank of Ceylon PLC


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