Presentation on theme: "ODRA CASE STUDY RESEARCH FOR MODELLING. Narrative storylines Structured description of agents based on interviews’ transcripts. What does it look like???"— Presentation transcript:
ODRA CASE STUDY RESEARCH FOR MODELLING
Narrative storylines Structured description of agents based on interviews’ transcripts. What does it look like???
I LAND USE
LAND USE CHANGE He has been farming here since 1977 Started with 1,3ha, than increased acreage to 35ha. Next they decreased acreage, because there were floods every two years and droughts in the meantime and no help from the State was provided In 1987 they rented their meadows to someone, because they didn’t have enough cattle anymore and in 1997 they ploughed them.
LAND USE NOW Now he grows wheat and barley, because their production is the cheapest. On the previous meadows he grows wheat now since he has no cattle to graze. He's got 5 ha of fallow lands because it's impossible to seed everything at once - not enough time, equipment, seeds. He has 1,5ha of meadows and 25 ares of forests - "they are just as they were".
LAND USE PLANS He intends to afforestate land because he has10ha of V and VI class soils. He will plant more strawberries if he finds a buyer. He plans to assign 8 ares to his daughter, so that his wife could get the structural pension from EU.
II LANDSCAPE CHANGE PERCEPTIONS The acreage of meadows decreases due to ploughing. It happens because demand for hay diminished as a result of decrease in cattle stock. Some meadows were ploughed (and land reclamation destroyed), since farmers felt they did not have enough arable lands.
III LAND RECLAMATION
GENERAL OPINIONS LR doesn't work. Dikes and culverts were not repaired after flood. LR doesn't exist at all because ditches are overgrown. Ditches are not cleaned. One of his neighbors has a pond, so he cleans these ditches which serve him to let water off.
FLOODS/DROUGHTS Their fields are flooded always when snow starts melting in spring, because ditches are obstructed. Losses due to floodings come up to 70-80%. Yields were higher before fishponds were created. Now water stagnates in basins and the reaction of plants is immediate. In case of drought losses are from 20-30% to 60% depending on grain type and drought intensity.
PERSONAL CARE 008 has never maintained his LR, agent 028 did it on his fields. 009 has ditches along the fields. He does not maintain them because he pays fees and expects this work to be done for him. 013 does not maintain his LR because he doesn't know its construction and operation. To protect his crops against flooding 016 has been cleaning ditches on the fields of other farmers as well as State Forests since 1997.
WATER PARTNERSHIP Participation in a WP is obvious for her, since non-obstructed ditches are a crucial issue for farmers. Personally he wants the WP to be created. He would share in a WP if he was sure that local officials and other farmers support him. She wouldn't be able to be too active in a WP due to problems with health, but she would pay dues if a WP existed.
IV SOCIAL ISSUES
NETWORKS He asks only family for help. He exchanges products with two people. He asks family and professional advisers for information and advice.
DECISION MAKING MECHANISMS Farmers fit crop types to conditions on a given field. People just do what they always did - "they do not make any decisions, just seed". No one asks anybody about anything - "maybe son asks his father, that's all". Some farmers watch programs about farming on TV. Farmers are guided by their own experience and habits, they "do the same things as their parents did”. They ask professional advisers.
PERSONAL SOCIAL ACTIVITY 016 participates in village gatherings, in order to know what’s going on and because he likes to share his knowledge with others too. 013 is not engaged in the life of the local community, because of the lack of people in the same age in the village. 021 is strongly engaged in the life of local community, because she likes it.
AGENTS AND RULES
Agent propertyProperty valuesUPTFBFNPFPOWPIWPTF Land ownershipBig farmer Small farmer Part-time farmer No farmland Fish farmingYes No ++++ Activity related to LRS maintenance Take leadership Member of or willing to join WP Not member of WP but cleaning ditches Do nothing but willing Do nothing and unwilling Agricultural knowledge High Middle Low ++++ Social network integration High Low +
BFNPFarming- related IF * THEN keepFarmlandAsIs IF (haveGrassLand OR haveFallowLand) AND goodSoilQuality AND suffEconomicBalance THEN plow (-> turnLandToArable) IF (haveGrassLand OR haveFallowLand) AND badSoilQuality AND suffEconomicBalance THEN afforestate (->turnToForest) IF (haveGrassLand OR haveFallowLand) AND suffEconomicBalance THEN buildPond LRS relatedIF bigLosses THEN considerLRSActivity IF considerLRSActivity AND existsWorkingWP THEN joinWP IF considerLRSActivity AND noWPExists THEN cleanDitches Network- related IF askedByLeaderToJoinWP THEN considerLRSActivity (observe network neighbors in a given social context) IF goodLRSCond AND lessLosses THEN considerLRSActivity
SOIL CLASS RULES IF HAVE MEADOWS IF VI or V class meadow AND no afforestation subsidies AND cattle breeding profitable THEN keep meadow IF VI or V class meadow AND no afforestation subsidies AND cattle breeding not profitable THEN abandon meadow OR IF direct payments/hectare THEN keep meadow IF VI or V class meadow AND afforestation subsidies AND cattle breeding not profitable THEN afforestate IF VI or V class meadow AND afforestation subsidies AND cattle breeding profitable THEN afforestate OR IF have big farm and cattle husbandry THEN keep meadow IF IV class meadow AND cattle breeding profitable THEN keep meadow IF IV class meadow AND cattle breeding not profitable THEN abandon OR IF direct payments/hectare OR growing grains very profitable THEN turn into arable