Presentation on theme: "Development-Oriented Approach to Climate Risk Management"— Presentation transcript:
1Development-Oriented Approach to Climate Risk Management Milen DyoulgerovDisaster Management and Adaptation CoordinatorGFDRRSeptember 21, 2010
2The climate is already changing Adaptation to these changes in the long term starts with improved current climate and disaster risk management capacityApproaching climate change adaptation (CCA) and disaster risk reduction (DRR) work as a continuum, as do our developing country partnersCCA analysis and measures in DRR interventions is increasingly a basic issue of due diligence, while CCA investments that do not address current climate risks could fall short of meeting countries’ development needs
3Linking Disaster Risk Reduction and Climate Change Adaptation Most climate change impacts, especially in the short to medium term, will materialize through variability and extremesReducing disaster risk is thus a no-regrets CCA strategyDRR and CCA should largely be managed as one integrated agenda:Climate Risk ManagementTo date, CCA and DRR communities have largely operated in isolation. This must change as a matter of urgency.Climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction have similar aims and mutual benefits. They are two complementary approaches for sustainable development with areas of overlap offering opportunities for synergies. However, to date the climate change and disaster risk reduction communities have operated largely in isolation from each other – for a number of reasons. A global concern exists about the high transaction costs of working in silos and failing to capture important synergies (focal points for the two tracks often reside in different ministries within governments or different departments within organizations).
4Some terminology (cont.)…. Climate Risk Managementtreats economic development, DRR, and CCA as a continuumconsiders both short- and long-term climate variability and risks in an integrated mannerfocuses not only on avoiding adverse outcomes but also on maximizing opportunities in climate-sensitive sectors – e.g., farmer productivitycovers a broad range of potential actions, such as land use planning and zoning, financial instruments, infrastructure design and capacity building, climate and weather information systems, early-response systems, strategic diversification, dynamic resource-allocation rules, etc.
5Climate Risk Management (CRM): How partner countries see it most developing country partners rarely make a distinction between development assistance targeting current versus longer-term climate variability and riskdifferentiation in financing modalities and sources can add confusion and deepen institutional capacity and coordination issuesmost CASs/CPCs address DRR and CCA in conjunction, if at allcountries like the Maldives and Vietnam take leadership by adopting integrated national CRM strategies and platforms; other countries in the process of doing soBasis for establishing the national platformNational Strategy for Natural Disaster Prevention, Response and Mitigation to 2020.Action plan for implementing National Strategy for Natural Disaster Prevention, Response and Mitigation to 2020.Community Based Disaster Risk Management ProgramNational target program to respond to climate change.Climate change and sea level rising scenariosAction Plan Framework adapting to Climate change of Agricultural and Rural development sector in stageLaw of Disaster Management (under construction)Maldives ---- STRATEGIC NATIONAL ACTION PLAN FOR DISASTER RISK REDUCTION AND CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATIONThe huge costs of disasters in terms of lost lives, property and productivity are expectedto be exacerbated by climate change impacts during the coming decades. There is,therefore, good sense in finding an approach that will address both concerns withsimplicity and comprehensiveness, and extra benefits as well. Climate change adaptationand disaster risk reduction (DRR) have similar aims and may utilize the same tools thathave proven effective over the years.VietnamCurrent impact: ~1.5%GDPCC projections: 1 of 5 worst affected countriesNational Disaster Risk Reduction platform for information sharing, institutional development, coordinated planning, sector work, and investments, including donor programs and aid, related to all aspects of climate risk managementCentral government coordination mechanism at the Vice-minister level chaired by Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development that brings together central and local governments, academia, NGO/IGOs, and donors.
6Climate Risk Management: How we see It The climate is already changing: from shifting seasonal patterns of precipitation and extreme weather events to unprecedented floods, droughts, and heat wavesadaptation to these changes in the long term starts with improved current climate and disaster risk management capacitysimilarly, CCA investments should increase resilience to current climate variability while preparing for future shifts in climate conditionsFrom development perspectiveintegrating CCA analysis and measures in DRR interventions is increasingly becoming a basic issue of due diligenceCCA investments that do not simultaneously address current climate risks could fall short of meeting countries’ development needsFrom operational perspectiveshared analytical and methodological tools/approachescommon risk financing toolkit of policies and productsDRR often an entry point for CCA engagementpost-disaster reconstruction as an opportunity for climate-smart (re)development
7Climate Risk Management: How we see It Opportunities in recoveryreduction of climate vulnerability to future hazardsclimate risks addressed in recovery plansPost Disaster Needs Assessment (PDNA) to guide disaster and climate resilient recovery planningestimates of the damages and losses in all social and economic sectorsbase for a comprehensive recovery and reconstruction strategyexamples: Namibia, Bangladesh, Haiti, CAR, Myanmar, Cambodia, Lao PDR, Senegal, Burkina Faso…risk assessments as a basis for post-disaster land use planning and building codesexamples: Yemen, Madagascar
8Malawi Econ Vulnerability and Risk Assessment Climate Risk Management: How we see Itmajority of Bank analytical and programming work on adaptation at both country and regional levels has been either initiated or co-financed by DRR resources as integrated CRM initiatives—a similar trend emerges with investment operationsCRM approach built in the PPCR country programs in Bangladesh, Zambia, Mozambique (among others), based on existing DRR and CCA analytical and capacity-building workClimate Risk Financing advanced by Treasury, GFDRR, and Regions in an integrated manner to meet partner countries’ DRR and CCA needsMalawi Econ Vulnerability and Risk AssessmentNorth Africa Adaptation Action Plansassessing most threatening climate hazards, floods and droughts, followed by a probabilistic risk analysis and projection of economic impacts as a foundation for CRM capacity-building and investmentCRM AAA financed with both DRR and CCA dedicated funds to assess climate risks with horizon and propose adaptation and preparedness options for Alexandria, Casablanca, and TunisMoldova Disaster and CRM projectMoldova PDNAto strengthen national Hydromet Service's ability to forecast severe weather and improve Moldova's capacity to prepare for and respond to climate disasters and future climate risks in the agriculture sector in particularin the aftermath of extreme floods preceded by extreme draughts, a window of opportunity to build back better, incorporating climate-smart water resource management and infrastructure
9Climate Risk Management: How we see It ICM interventions bring high economic returnsA GFDRR-WB Study on Economics of Hydro-meteorological Services in Central Asia :Investment in information and knowledge: each € 100 spent in meteorological systems yields at least € 200 in avoided damagesSource: World Bank.
10Adaptive Risk Governance Climate Risk Management (CRM): Changing nature of riskClimate Risk ManagementRisk AssessmentRisk ReductionRisk Financing.Disaster Preparedness and RecoveryAdaptive Risk GovernanceOptions-based management and adaptive decision-makingAdded temporal and political risk dimensionsAdded factors:temporalspatialpolitical economyAdded factorspoliticalintergeneration equityAdded factorstemporal limitationnot to substitute for development financingSlow outset, long term structural shifts in everyday and in extensive risksadaptive functionsIn Mekong river delta area, there are 12 provinces with 33 industrial parks, or 10% of all industrial park nationwide,So far for last 50 years o C, and SLR of about 20 smClimate change : more severe and/or frequent natural disasters, especially cyclonic storms, floods and droughts becoming more extreme in Vietnam.low emission high emissionMean surface temperature – – 3.6 C inRainfall – 5.2% %SLR sm 100smIf the sea level rises by 1 meter, 90% of the Mekong River Delta area will be flooded during the flood season, and 71% will be salted during the dry season, and about 20 million people will be affected in terms of housing.
11Climate Risks are changing The major developmental challenges and main drivers of underlying disaster risks are also the major determinants for adaptation actionweak urban governance, vulnerable rural livelihoods, and declining ecosystems,Climate Risks are changingquantitative shifts, in frequency and scale of extreme eventsqualitative shifts, in risk types and threshold statesspatial shifts, with countries’ risk profiles changingThere can be no sustainable development without integrated and fully mainstreamed climate risk managementThe approaches to managing these risk need to evolveIntegrated climate risk management approach as a development- enabling factor
12From concepts to development practices Strong methodological and operational base for integrating climate adaptation in national strategies as well as in the critical window of post-disaster recovery planning and operations, established at the global level in cooperation with the UN, RMDBs, and the ECBuilding on needs and synergies in terms of geospatial and climate risk information, GFDRR and the Climate Change Team have initiated country adaptation profiles for all Bank Regions -- an operational tool for practitioners for just-in-time reference information, to be later expanded with sector-specific climate risk guidance
13Building on its strong partnership with the WBG Treasury and the Insurance Group, GFDRR is establishing a center of expertise for catastrophic risk financing and insurance for providing analytical and operational supportRecognizing Social protection as a critical component of climate risk management, GFDRR seed funding has enabled pioneering work on the social dimensions of climate change in Africa and is now supporting multi-country analysis on adaptation for the urban poor.On-going work on results measurement and indicators
14Helping Partners Stay Ahead Understand risks and prioritiesDevelop hazard and risk analysis, use improved climate data, adaptation needs assessmentsEncourage a shift toward climate-resilient growth across all sectorsMainstreaming in existing strategies ensures that objectives are met; use sectoral strategies to reach local governments and communities; build on existing platformsProvide budget allocation for:Climate-resilient public infrastructure (e.g., roads, dams)Preparedness and emergency response to extreme eventsInformation to help citizens in their everyday decisions (e.g., early warning systems, seasonal forecasts)R&D and extension services in agricultureProvide for unforeseen events; create contingency funds, sign contingent loans, and/or buy insurance for emergency responses to climatic disastersDesign policiesSupport line ministriesPlan ahead with contingency funds
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