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0 ABC Holdings Ltd Interim Results to June 2009. 1 HIGHLIGHTS BWPJune 09% changeJune 08Dec 08 Attributable profits (‘000s)36,49450%73,63885,818 Basic.

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Presentation on theme: "0 ABC Holdings Ltd Interim Results to June 2009. 1 HIGHLIGHTS BWPJune 09% changeJune 08Dec 08 Attributable profits (‘000s)36,49450%73,63885,818 Basic."— Presentation transcript:

1 0 ABC Holdings Ltd Interim Results to June 2009

2 1 HIGHLIGHTS BWPJune 09% changeJune 08Dec 08 Attributable profits (‘000s)36,49450%73,63885,818 Basic EPS (thebe)25.450 %51.260.3 Dividend per Share ( thebe)--8.00 Cost to income ratio (%)72% 22 %  50%59% Net asset value (‘000s)505,28122 % 412,852437,654 NAV per share (thebe)3.5122 %2.873.04 Total assets (‘000s)4,083,08122 %3,338,6413,967,938

3 2 HIGHLIGHTS African Banking Corporation successfully re-branded to BancABC across all operating territories Total income 9% up to BWP 235 m (H108: BWP 215 m) Cost to income ratio increased to 72% (H108: 50%)  Retail banking development  Dollarisation of the Zimbabwe economy and costs iro strengthening the existing operations Attributable profit of BWP 36.5 m (H108: BWP 73.6 m), and EPS of 25.4 thebe (H108: 51.2 thebe) Strong operational and financial performance in Mozambique entrenches BancABC’s positioning in that market Retail banking development progressing well - branch network to be rolled out H209.


5 4 ECONOMIC OVERVIEW GLOBAL GDP GROWTH Asian Crisis Dot-com Crisis Source: IMF

6 5 Global economy is projected to decline by 1.4% in 2009 SSA economic growth suffering from the negative impact of global recession but still projected to grow at 1.5% in 2009, outperforming global economy Negative growth in Botswana Zimbabwe expected to registered GDP growth for the first time in 10 yrs Commodity prices weakened significantly in sympathy with the global economic downturn resulting in weak export earnings Inflation pressures have generally been low on the backdrop of weak global demand and subdued oil prices Zimbabwe burst the inflation bubble following the adoption of multi-currency system – hyperinflation turned to deflation ECONOMIC OVERVIEW KEY INDICATORS

7 6 Country GDP (USDm) 2009 GDP Growth rate 2009 est Banking Deposits (USDm) Jun 2009 Banking Credit (USDm) Jun 2009 Banking Assets (USDm) Jun 2009 Population 2009 est (m) No. of banks Botswana12,200-10.4%4,8832,5736,5801.812 Mozambique10,3804.3%2,8761,9624,10921.212 Tanzania21,8542.5%4,7394,6266,77040.636 Zambia13,9314.0%2,0591,5352,94212.914 Zimbabwe3,4983.7%7062631,00912.628 ECONOMIC OVERVIEW COUNTRY OPPORTUNITY Source: Central Banks, Ministries of Finance and Central Statistical Offices

8 7 SSA currencies are recovering from significant declines against the USD experienced in Q408 and Q109 Volatility in forex markets higher than previously experienced Zimbabwe presents great growth opportunity despite low asset base Depreciation of ZMK has reduced deposit base Banking assets however continued to grow, albeit at a slower pace ECONOMIC OVERVIEW COUNTRY OPPORTUNITY

9 8 ECOMOMIC OVERVIEW INFLATION AND INTEREST RATES Country Inflation Rate June-2009 Avg. TB Yield Rate June-2009 Avg. Prime Lending Rates 2009 Avg. Prime Lending Rates 2008 Zimbabwe*0.6%---9.6 %3,700% Botswana7.0 %11.4 %15.5 %16.6% Mozambique2.7 %11.5 %16.4 %20.1% Zambia14.4 %14.0 %20.9 %25.2% Tanzania10.7 %11.6 %13.5 %13.6% *Monthly inflation


11 10 COUNTRY OVERVIEW ATTRIBUTABLE PROFIT BWP’000sJune 09 % contribution June 08 % contribution Dec 08 % contribution BancABC Botswana5,95941%5,96812%13,19323% BancABC Mozambique17,475120%7,34015%16,64429% BancABC Tanzania1,67812%2,6667%10,09617% ABC Zambia*(12,669)-87%4,71010%(7,223)-13% BancABC Zimbabwe2,13314%27,61356%25,33844% Banking operations14,556100%48,297100%58,048100% H.O. and other21,93825,34127,770 TOTAL36,49473,63885,818 *includes Microfin Africa

12 11 COUNTRY OVERVIEW BOTSWANA Economy severely impacted by declining diamond prices Loan book declined by 9% from Dec 08 but up 17% from June 08 Impairments contained at prior year levels Total income increased by 15% to BWP 39.1 m Net interest income marginally down to BWP 16.9 m (H108: BWP 18.2m) Other income increased significantly to BWP 22.3 m (H108: BWP 15.8m), predominantly foreign exchange trading income Retail expansion and staffing costs impacted profitability Attributable profit stable at BWP 6.0m

13 12 COUNTRY OVERVIEW MOZAMBIQUE Impressive performance with attributable profit up 140% to BWP 17.5 m Net interest income up 57% to BWP 21.5m Loan book grown by 25% from Dec 08 and 75% from June 08 Other income up 162% to BWP 28.6 m Increase in business volumes Higher margins owing to high volatility Foreign exchange trading income Low levels of impairments due to economy’s lesser dependence on commodity prices Banc ABC’s strong niche position in market place reinforced

14 13 COUNTRY OVERVIEW TANZANIA Net interest income increased to BWP 14.2 m (H108: BWP 11.6 m) Loan book grew 43% YOY but declined 14% since Dec 08 Other income grew by 32% to BWP 11.9 m Impairments significantly higher at BWP 5.6 m (H108: BWP 1.0 m) Attributable profit lower at BWP 1.7 m (H108: BWP 2.7 m)

15 14 COUNTRY OVERVIEW ZAMBIA Zambian economy very hard hit by slump in copper prices during 2008, significant lag effect into broader economy and support sectors High levels of impairments of BWP 22m due to resulting economic impact Net interest income stable at BWP 32.4 m, but other income declined due to limited liquidity Management changes implemented Merger of Microfin and ABC Zambia operations expected to produce synergistic cost savings

16 15 COUNTRY OVERVIEW ZIMBABWE Overall income down vs. H108, but improved from H208 Net interest income BWP 2.6 m (H108: BWP 8.6m) Other income BWP 12.8m (H108: BWP 32.1m) due to reduced investment property income and tight liquidity Attributable profit of BWP 2.1 m (H108: BWP 27.6 m) Significant cost increase due to dollarisation Decision taken to divest of investment portfolio to fund banking operations Promising signs of banking sector recovery in Zimbabwe Stabilising Zimbabwe economy presents great growth opportunities off a very low base


18 17 FINANCIAL OVERVIEW INCOME STATEMENT Net interest income up 11% to BWP 78.7m Non interest income up 8% to BWP 156.5m, driven by forex income Total income up 9% to BWP 235 m (H108: BWP 215 m); Net interest income contribution to total income stable at 33% Cost to income ratio increased to 72% (H108: 50%) due to the retail banking development, dollarisation of the Zimbabwe economy and strengthening of human capital across the Group Net interest income covered 47% of costs Basic EPS 25.4 thebe (H108: 51.2 thebe); Average return on equity remains positive at 16% (H108: 39%);

19 18 FINANCIAL OVERVIEW INCOME SPLIT Income composition consistent for last three years Interest income to contribute proportionally more going forward Expected return to stability in the global markets Redeployment of capital from non-core assets to interest earning assets

20 19 FINANCIAL OVERVIEW OTHER INCOME BWP’000sJune 09June 08 % change Gains from investment activities71,56959,04021% Dividends received211,444-99 % Fee and commission income37,03326,98237 % Fx trading income and currency revaluation44,04617,015159 % Fair value gains on investment properties(12,478)32,901-138 % Fair value adjustment: derivative instruments9,762(4,254)329 % Rental and other income6,58911,693-44 % Total156,542144,8218 % Significant growth in foreign exchange trading volume, especially in Mozambique and Botswana

21 20 FINANCIAL OVERVIEW 5 YEAR EARNINGS Trend shows effect of inflation adjusted accounting in Zimbabwe Bar Zambia, all banking operations remain profitable

22 21 FINANCIAL OVERVIEW BALANCE SHEET Deposits increased by 4% from Dec 08 and 26% from June 08 to BWP 1.9 billion Region’s high exposure to commodities impacted significantly on business growth and debt servicing Group impairments as a result increased by 215% to BWP 41m, with Tanzania and Zambia increasing by 340% and 460% respectively Strengthening of Group credit department and systems ongoing Group balance sheet grew by 24% from June 08 and 4% from December 08 to BWP 4.1 billion Loans and advances up by 38% to BWP 2.2 billion compared to June 08, but declined by 4% since December 08 due to deliberate policy to curtail lending NAV per share increased by 15% from December 2008 and 22% from June 2008, to 3.51 thebe per share;

23 22 FINANCIAL OVERVIEW DEPOSIT GROWTH 26% growth in deposits Botswana, Mozambique and Tanzania grew by over 30% Zambia recorded a decline


25 24 FINANCIAL OVERVIEW LOAN BOOK GROWTH Net loans increased by 38% from June 08 All subsidiaries registered significant growth with the exception of Zambia which grew marginally


27 26 FINANCIAL OVERVIEW 5 YEAR NAV TREND NAV per share increased 22% Consistent NAV growth over the last 5 years Zimbabwe operations positive contribution to capital in 2009

28 27 FINANCIAL OVERVIEW CAPITAL BWP ’ 000 Capital* June 09 FCTR June 09CAR Capital* June 08 FCTR June 08 BancABC Botswana 119,950-17% 105,810 - BancABC Mozambique 157,288 (5,514) 20% 113,533 (1,379) BancABC Tanzania**130,045(10,603)14% 104,044 3,790 ABC Zambia***65,596(2,968)14%146,48426,900 BancABC Zimbabwe92,922(197)45%103,105(157,058) * including Tier II ** including TDFL ***including Microfin

29 28 FINANCIAL OVERVIEW CAPITALISATION Mutually agreed not to draw down the proposed US$25 m investment by CVCI Zimbabwe investment portfolio of equity and real estate assets to be liquidated to fund banking operations – original capital preservation strategy for Zimbabwe no longer necessary The proceeds are expected to meet the Group’s funding needs Planned rights issue postponed IFC to disburse 50% of US$13.5 m convertible loan Balance to be drawn down over the next 12 months

30 29 RETAIL BANKING Significant investment in retail banking made in systems and human capital BWP 22 m in direct expenses Investment in IT systems of US$3.2 m Retail Banking head office now appropriately staffed, but contributed to overall higher employee costs 9 branches to be opened by the end of 2009 Costs expected to continue to increase as project rolls out Retail banking expected to contribute meaningfully in 2nd half of 2010 Branch profitability estimated at between 18 to 24 months

31 30 OUTLOOK CHALLENGES Economies across the region beginning to show signs of recovery Strengthening commodity prices especially copper, nickel and diamonds Expected improvement in incidence of bad debts Major thrust continues to be consolidation and ensuring modest growth notwithstanding high costs as a result of retail banking Continued proactive management of the loan book Merger of Zambia operations should result in cost savings and turn around Deposit mobilization remains a key focus area for the group, particularly in Zambia Dollarisation of the Zimbabwe economy brings liquidity challenges, but presents huge opportunities



34 33 ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT GRAIN PRICES International Grain PricesRegional Grain Prices Source: World Bank



37 36 ECOMOMIC ENVIRONMENT EXCHANGE RATES To 1 BWP 30 Jun-0931 Dec-0830 June-08 United States Dollar0.150.130.15 Mozambique Metical3.953.383.96 South African Rand1.141.251.20 Tanzania Shilling193174180 Zambian Kwacha765636494 Zimbabwe Dollar-88 Quad*24.9 billion* ZWD Old Mutual implied rate ZWD revalued in 2008

38 37 ECOMOMIC ENVIRONMENT EXCHANGE RATES To 1 US dollar 30 Jun-0931 Dec-0830 June-08 Botswana Pula7.767.546.53 Mozambique Metical27.1325.5024.05 South African Rand7.719.407.83 Tanzania Shilling1 3031 3151 173 Zambian Kwacha5 1704 7953 225 Zimbabwe Dollar-665 Quad*162.6 billion* ZWD Old Mutual implied rate ZWD revalued in 2008

39 38 FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE: NET INTEREST INCOME Ave. Yield on IEA Ave. Cost Spread 2009 Spread 2008 ABC Botswana12.3%11.3%1.0%1.3% ABC Mozambique10.8%5.1%5.7%5.4% ABC Tanzania10.9%7.2%3.7% ABC Zambia14.4%9.3%5.1%4.9% ABC Zimbabwe21.4%3.7%17.7%20.5% Microfin Zambia67.6%22.3%45.3%43.9%

40 39 ECONOMIC OVERVIEW COMMODITY PRICES Commodity prices have recovered significantly from Dec-08 prices Source: World Bank

41 40 INTERNATIONAL BANKS MARKET CAPITALISATION Modest recovery in banks mkt cap indicates that the worst of the banking crisis could be behind us

42 41 INTERNATIONAL EQUITY MARKET CAP US$ BILLIONS International equity markets also showing signs of recovery

43 42 STOCK MARKET CAPITALIZATION SSA Countries US$ m JSE capitalisation up from US$485bn in Dec 08 to US$667bn in July 09 Mkt Cap: Dec 2008 Mkt Cap: Jul 2009 Zim Zambia BotswanaTanzania Kenya Nigeria

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