2Maritime Sovereignty, Security and Natural Hazards Andreas Schiller, CSIRO Alexander Babanin, Swinburne University and Contributing Authors
3Contents Propositions Introduction & Definitions Scope Science Needs Bathymetric MappingNatural HazardsMonitoring and ForecastingPropositionsDeep water domainContinental shelfLittoral zone & coastline
4Australia’s total area of maritime responsibility: 14% of the world’s oceans3rd largest EEZRefer to Australian SAR region (MH370).
5Sovereignty, Security and Safety Sovereignty… means a state or a governing body has the full right and power to govern itself without any interference from outside sources or bodiesSecurity is the degree of resistance to, or protection from, harmSafety is… the condition of being protected against… types or consequences of… which could be considered non-desirableby WikipediaSafety and Natural Hazards:Safety can also be defined to be the control of recognized hazards to achieve an acceptable level of riskThis can take the form of being protected from the event or from exposure to something that causes health or economical lossesIt can include protection of people or of possessions.by Wikipedia
6Definitions littoral zone Definition: for the purpose of this paper we will regard the ocean as a spatial and temporal continuum from the deepwater to the estuaries and on time scales from hours to weeks. Some specific science challenges require a more detailed definition like “coastal” which can be defined as covering domains from the upper continental shelf into the head of estuaries, that is, the part of the ocean that is significantly affected by tides. A sub-region to “coastal” is the very nearshore or littoral zone, which can be approximately described as that part of the ocean where the effects of surface waves are felt at the sea bed (with the potential to cause significant sediment resuspension).
7Scope Maritime sovereignty, national security and safety: require accurate information about ocean, atmosphere and hazard domainssupport prediction, prevention, mitigation and compliance activitiesscales: global to littoral zone & weeks to hours
8Users of Information Offshore Industry Short-termneeds reliable metocean hind- and forecastsdesign criteria include 1/10000 years events, requires robust and accurate modelsLong-termwill advance to hundreds of kilometers offshore and to oceanic depthsunderstanding of subsurface dynamicsCoastal engineering, aquaculture and fisheries, shipping, tourism, recreational boating, …Governments: Emergency Services, Defence, EPAs, …
9Research Community Universities, e.g. Swinburne, UNSW, UTas, UWA, … dedicated funding for research programs (ARC)dedicated teaching programs in marine scienceLeading federal and state government R&D providers: AIMS, BoM, CSIRO, DSTO, GA, SARDI, …mission-driven, multidisciplinary and operational (BoM)creating opportunities for Australian research students and graduates
10Linkages With Other NMSC Themes InfrastructureEnergy securityMarineSovereignty,Security &SafetyUrban coastal environmentsFood securityOptimal resource allocationBiodiversity conservationand ecosystem healthDealing with changing climateThemes: Grand Challenges, and cross-cutting issuesMSSS supports all other themes by providing information about the state of the ocean: physical, biogeochemical and hydrographic information (+ sediments/morphodynamics [interaction seafloor-hydrodynamics] in littoral zone)Because of close links between this theme and others there is some overlap in science needs.1. Sovereignty, security, natural hazards: enhancing operational oceanographic forecasting, increased effort on fine-scale hydrographic data and charts2. Energy security: support for developing energy resources, particularly liquid natural gas and renewable energy, and mapping and modelling to find and develop carbon sequestration3. Food security: research to support a booming aquaculture industry, data and tools to manage wild-catch fisheries better4. Biodiversity conservation and ecosystemhealth: support to describe biodiversity in unexplored areas, develop functional understanding of ecological communities of seabed and water column habitats to find and develop national efforts in environmental monitoring, anddevelopment of tools to predict the nature and consequences of changes in biodiversity as a result of human interventionDealing with changing climate: refine understanding of the impacts of sea level rise,increasing sea temperature, the role of the ocean as a carbon sink and ocean acidificationto support government efforts to mitigate and adapt to climate change. Links with MSSS:extreme events/natural hazards.6. Optimal resource allocation: address critical policy and management issues by integrating social, economic and environmental information and developing tools and skills to assist in transparent, robust and accountable decision-making.7. Urban coastal environments: managing coastal development and the built marine environment; ecosystem health and human impacts in an urban context; identifying and improving low impact shipping, dredging, fishing, waste disposal and recreational processes; integrating diverse and localised research and end user communities on a national scale.8. Infrastructure: Vessels, Observing System(in-situ, satellite), e-Research (data, compute, tools, networks), Experimental Facilities
11Bathymetric MappingAustralia’s continental shelf almost completely defined(“Legal Continental Shelf”). Exceptions:Australian Antarctic Territory (AAT)Joey Rise at north-western corner of Exmouth PlateauWilliams Ridge, part of Kerguelen PlateauCoastline and Territorial Sea Baseline: comprehensive mappingprogram underway (GA, State Govt’s, AHS). Scale: 1:1000But significant gaps exist in high-resolution bathymetric data:e.g. Great Barrier Reef is least well mapped area of Australian jurisdiction needed for many scientific & operational applications, e.g. inundation forecastingCollection of multibeam data, shallow seismic and sub-bottom profiler data on the AAT slope and rise should be supported as a national interest activity, since it contributes to any possible future examination of Australia’s national shelf and demonstrates Australia’s ongoing commitment the Antarctic.Bathymetric cover of the reef should be priority, by LADS (Laser Airborne Depth Sounder) or satellite bathymetry. Poor tidal modelling of the GBR also has an impact on the operational envelope of vessels that need to enter these areas.Key to understanding the tsunami potential, is to determine landslide movement velocity, which requires long-term monitoring of seabed movement.
12Natural HazardsNatural hazards are severe and extreme weather and climate events that occur naturally in all parts of the world, although some regions are more vulnerable to certain hazards than othersNatural hazards become natural disasters when people's lives and livelihoods are destroyedby WMO
13Marine Hazards in Deep Water Destructive windsfor example, tropical cyclonesLarge, steep and breaking wavescan reach more than 10 m in mean wave heightRogue wavesat least twice as high as the mean waves, unexpectedWave-current interactionssteepen the waves, cause rogue wavesUnderstanding & prediction, deep water:Not everything is due to the storms (rogue waves, currents)Tropical cyclones – missing physics, lack of measurementsRogue waves – very rare, most destructive. Statistics unreliable, sound physical models neededWave-current interactions – last element of loose physics in wave models
14Marine Hazards in Coastal Domain Large wavesRogue wavesRip currentsCoastal erosionStorm surgesSea level riseTsunamisUnderstanding and prediction, coastal:Not everything is due to the stormsRogues waves, rip currents – not predicted. Cause of deaths of rock fishermen, beach goersStorm surge – prediction needs improvement: coupling with wave models; breaking of waves modifies currents (additional to wind stress)Storm surges, coastal erosion are likely to increase in the sea level rise scenarioTsunamis are a low threat, but Australia has regional responsibilities
15Marine Subsurface Hazards Abnormal currentscan be two orders of magnitude greater than the meanInternal wavesUnderwater landslides: tsunamisPoorly understood, not predictedThreats of failure or damage for offshoreindustry, underwater pipelines, submarineoperationsAbnormal currents created by, e.g.,Interactions of tides with surrounding currents (e.g. in topographically confined areas)Density/turbidity currents near the sea floor
16Marine Biological Hazards Algal bloomsCoral bleachingInvasive speciesCan be accelerated, enhanced or initiated by changesto the geophysical environment, such astropical cyclones over the Great Barrier Reefglobal warming
17Marine Hazards: Science Issues Common topics: interaction of wind, waves and currents,landslides/tsunamis and sea level rise (& biological hazards)General science questions:Climatological: what is the general nature of wave and current patterns and how do these vary in time?Operational: what impact will present and predicted waves and currents have on specific activities?Design: what is the statistical character and probability of extreme winds, waves and currents and how might these impact coastal ocean infrastructure and adjacent settlements?
18Marine Hazards: Science Approach Statistical approaches and extrapolations are not reliable forrare and extreme eventsFundamental research into the nature of hazards andextremesPhysical modelling of extreme eventsObservations:In situ observations, consistent and long-termRemote sensing, satellites, aircraft, radarsDedicated observations within the natural extremeenvironments and eventsApproach:Define mean values and trendsIdentify extreme and unexpected properties and eventsFill the gaps in observationsFundamental research and process studiesIntegrated/coupled modellingIdentify priorities and fast track for operational implementation of the priorities
19National SecurityINDESO,Indonesia“The operational Navy requires accurate ocean and wave predictions to support Search and Rescue, anti-piracy initiatives, route planning, mine warfare, anti-submarine warfare, and amphibious operations.”Allard et al., 2014 (US Naval Research Laboratory)Navy:From the special issue of Oceanography on the US Navy Operational ModelsRecent example of Rapid Transition to Production projects: regional tropical cyclone model; surge and inundation capability for stormsThe future (10 years):coupled models along with greater reliance on ensembles (ocean-wave, ocean-ice, air-wave, air-ocean-ice-wave)longer forecasts (out to seasonal predictions) of ocean currents, thermal structure, waves, ice cover and atmospheric conditionsHigh-impact forecast modeling system for use nationwide, operational by 2018
20Scale of information provided by BLUElink tools BeachSeamless prediction across scales from global to ocean basin, regional to shelf and down to beach.Eddy rich ocean from global down to local scales, changing over days down to hours on the beach.
21Ocean and Wave Hind- & Forecasting Global Ocean Modelling and Data AssimilationNRT Ocean AnalysisRegional Modellingand Data Assimilation(plus Littoral Ocean Modelling)Ocean ReanalysisBluelink partnership (BoM, CSIRO, RAN) has delivered a world-class ocean forecasting system.Bluelink is the only global to regional scale ocean forecasting system in the southern hemisphere among a handful of systems which cover these scales like the UK MetOffice, US Navy and Mercator Ocean (France).Run operationally by the BoM and supported by CSIRO.Provides robust service to meet needs of regional and industry users as well as Navy’s specific operational requirements to ensure efficiency and safety of defence activities.BoM: operational ocean forecasting and public service delivery21
22Modelling and Forecasting for Security: International Status “Future versions of COAMPS [US Navy Coastal Ocean-Atmosphere Modelling and Prediction System] represent the first successful step toward a fully coupled modelling environment, where exchanges between the ocean, atmosphere, ice, land, hydrosphere, biosphere, and space occur in real time.”Bub et al., 2014 (US Naval Oceanographic Office)US Navy schedule 2016: (1/25)o [~ 4 km at Equator] operational global ocean forecasting systemUS Naval Office: Earth Systems model for shorter time scales
23Modelling and Forecasting for Security: National Challenges Australia:Need for nationally coordinated approach in coastal ocean predictions, including the abilityto quantify contemporary and future coastline variabilityBluelink: resource limitations – imminent risk of losing connection to leading-edge science;dependence on overseas systems (global-regional-littoral)R&D required:coupled ocean-wave-ice-atmosphere-biogeochemical (incl. nutrients and carbon module)global explicit tidesenhanced data assimilation (ensemble prediction), e.g. HF radar, sea-ice,biological/biogeochemical observationsroutinely produced error estimatesup-to-date production of ocean reanalyses
24Propositions (1)Comprehensive national bio-physical-sediment observing system, from deep water to coastal to littoral zone, in situ and remote sensing. National database, ongoing and consistente.g. dense (nation-wide) coastal HF-radar network to observe currents and waves for research, forecasting services and border security applicationsShort-to-medium range (days to weeks) uncoupled and coupled atmosphere/ocean/ice /waves/land/biogeochemical models in forecast and reanalysis mode, from deep water to coastal to littoral zone, initialised by observationsUtilising and tailoring overseas experiences and expertise wherever possible and appropriateSome or parts of above recommendations are already being addressed through, e.g., AODN, IMOS etc.
25Time Scales: Shelf-Scale Monitoring & Modelling 0-5 years:Improve modelling and understanding of processes and interactions of physical& biogeochemical parameters on continental shelf scalesContinue to leverage existing international efforts such as GODAE OceanView,CLIVAR and IMBER5-10 years:Sustained marine observing systemsDevelop and implement hazard impacts prediction services, building on knowledgeDevelop and implement fully coupled atmosphere/ocean/waves/bottom/coastmodelling, high resolution, with assimilation of, e.g., in-situ data, coastal radarsystems and satellite observationsDevelopment and implementation of coastal ocean interpretative tools to facilitateuser uptake (linked to global and littoral zone tools)20 years:Operationally sustain marine observing and forecasting/reanalyses systems
26Propositions (2)Increasingly, service delivery to private and public sector key to uptakeEstablish Centre of Excellence on Marine Extreme Events (related to White Paper about “Establishment of a national coastline observatory facility”); fill gap between TERN & IMOS (littoral zone)National Committee for short-term fast track priority implementation, between government, research community, industry, Navy etc.
27SummaryEnhance capabilities in national hydrographic, operational oceanographic and marine hazard forecasting, including coastal and littoral zone componentsMonitoring, analyses and forecasting of deep water, ocean waves, tsunamis, cyclones etc. require long-term commitments to meet growing public and private sector requirements (e.g. growing populations in coastal margins)Aspirations need to be supported by- a wide range of observations and- national computational infrastructureto feed into forecasting and compliance systems
28Andreas Schiller, CSIRO Alexander Babanin, Swinburne University Thank you!Andreas Schiller, CSIROAlexander Babanin, Swinburne UniversityAcknowledgements: contributing authors; photos: Will Drennan, George Forristal, Victor Shrira, SMH, anonymous