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Azmat Hayat Khan Director Pakistan Meteorological Department EARLY WARNING SYSTEM IN PAKISTAN FOR DISASTER MANAGEMENT.

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Presentation on theme: "Azmat Hayat Khan Director Pakistan Meteorological Department EARLY WARNING SYSTEM IN PAKISTAN FOR DISASTER MANAGEMENT."— Presentation transcript:

1 Azmat Hayat Khan Director Pakistan Meteorological Department EARLY WARNING SYSTEM IN PAKISTAN FOR DISASTER MANAGEMENT

2 PMD Seismology Meteorology Hydrology 2

3  Early Warnings of hazards due to Meteorological, Hydrological & Geophysical Phenomena such as Tropical Cyclones, Heavy Rains, Floods & Tsunamies etc. A KEY OBJECTIVE PMD 3

4 The provision of timely & effective information through identified institutions, that demands individuals exposed to hazard to take action to avoid or reduce their risk and prepare for effective response The Early Warning PMD 4

5 Risk Knowledge Monitoring & Warning Service Tools & Technologies for Monitoring Capacity to analyze info. Capacity for reliable prediction Dissemination & Communication Response Capacities Components of Early Warning System PMD 5

6 PMD 6

7 PMD 7

8 Improved Data Acquisition System An integrated observing system composed of remote-sensing, telemetric and automatic observation platforms has gradually become in shape, which are space-based, airborne and land-sited, so as to measure continuously multiple parameters of the climate system from all dimensions, with higher spatial and temporal resolution and with higher accuracies.

9 Khuzdar Zhob Astore Chhor Jiwani Larkana Nawabshah Sibbi D.I.Khan Bannu Parachinar Balakot Muzaffarabad Automation of Meteorological Observing Network Central data archiving Station Automatic Weather Stations 9

10 RADAR NETWORK OF PMD 5 cm radar at Islamabad 10 cm radar at FFD Lahore Area covered by Doppler radar at Lahore DIK IBD RHK KHI LHRPMD 10

11 PMD is maintaining satellite ground stations (HRPT, DVB, SADIS) at Islamabad, Quetta and Karachi. WEATHER & PRECIPITATION MONITORING USING THE EARTH SATELLITES 11

12 Automation of weather Data analysisPMD 12

13 Automation of weather Data analysisPMD 13

14 Adoption of New tools and technologies for effective Role

15 NWP Facilities GRIB data NetCDF data GrADS data etc.. datasets in any format supported by WMO Formats Result cache holds temporary data (uploaded, generated by a previous operation, or transferred directly from another server) for use in remote analysis PMD High Speed Server performs analysis operations manages sessions, translates dataset names supports extended request types for analysis, upload internet data and requests client libraries GrADS Matlab IDL etc.. data appears to client as local file, in a standard format (i.e, NetCDF, etc.) Client Encapsulated Analysis Requests 15

16 Meteorological Information Fog /Rain prediction for road safety Water resource management Heat Wave /Cold Wave Prediction Fisheries/ Marine Safety Flash flood monitoring Flood Warnings Cyclone Warnings Meteorological service for Hazard Mitigation Agromet Advisories Drought Monitoring Energy

17 LINKAGE TO OTHER MINISTRIES AVIATION METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES MINISTRY OF DEFENCE FLOOD FORECASTING SERVICES MINISTRY OF WATER & POWER AGROMETEOROLOGICAL SERVICES MINISTRY OF AGRICULTURE NEW MOON PREDICTION & ASTRONOMICAL DATA ANALYSIS MINISTRY OF RELIGIOUS AFFAIRS R & D & RENEWABLE ENERGY RESOURCES MINISTRY OF SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY FORECASTING & CLIMATOLOGY PLANNING DIVISION & DISASTER MITIGATION ORGANIZATIONSPMD 17

18 D.O. No.F /FAM Ministry of Water & Water Federal Flood Commission, Riaz AhmadIslamabad the Chairman Dear Doctor Sahib I feel honoured to acknowledge the accuracy of Meteorological Department’s recent flood forecast during August, 1997 record rainfall. Early warnings and consequent pre-releases from Mangla Dam saved the country from flood damages of the tune of approximately 5 billion rupees. With best regards, sd/ (RIAZ AHMAD)

19 D.O. No.F /FAM Ministry of Food, Agriculture & Livestock Government of Pakistan, Mian Abdul Sattar LalekaIslamabad the Minister My Dear General Sahib I feel pleasure in informing you that this year the country has been able to save about Rs crores on account of pesticides sprayed on cotton crops, because of the precise and timely weather forecast / advisories of Met. Office. I have already briefed the Prime Minister about this overwhelming success. With best regards, Yours sincerely (Abdul Sattar Laleka)

20 Water & Power Development Authority National Power Control Centre No.CENPCC/2080 Islamabad the Director General, Meteorological Department H-8/2, Islamabad Subject:IMPORTANCE OF WEATHER REPORTS FOR LOAD FORECAST. Thanking you for the proposal attention to our requests. It will be appreciate to explain that daily weather reports help this centre in accurate Load Forecasts for the day. Based on Load Forecasts demand is placed on IPP’s thermal units. On WAPDA saved Rs.12.3 million for not demanding HUBCO unit, as your report had a forecast of Rain at Lahore, which proved correct. Concerned with weather of each city related to Load in turn, the undersigned shall be grateful if you supply us every minute weather details. (HABIB ULLAH) Chief Engineer NPCC

21 Weather Services For MOUNTAINEERINGPMD

22 PMD’s Tropical Cyclone Early Warning SystemPMD 22

23 PMD has recently establishment a Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre (TCWC) at Karachi with a backup support at its main forecasting office Islamabad. Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre (TCWC) Karachi KarachiPMD 23

24 PMD made use of various tools and techniques in order to better predict the behaviour of the system (deep depression) especially prediction of track.  Climatology (data, history, precedents)  The synoptic situation  Upper air pressure profile (Isohypse and Isallohypse at different heights)  Upper air wind profile  Satellite imagery/products  Model outputs and Analysis of other regional and global centers, and etc. Tracking of TC PMD 24

25 PMD AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY UNDER GMDSS AS PER WMO CHARTER (Global Maritime Distress & Safety System (GMDSS)PMD 25

26 Details about Cyclone 03B – YEMYIN (24 th -26 th June, 2007)PMD 26

27 June 22, 2007 at 1300 PST Sindh: A strong Monsoon weather system (deep depression) over India is likely to approach Sindh coast in next hours. Widespread, heavy to very heavy rainfall is likely in Sindh especially in Southern Sindh and coastal areas including Karachi. Sea conditions will be extremely rough along Sindh coast. Fishermen are advised to stop fishing activities from 24th afternoon till 27th afternoon. Irrigation authorities may reduce the canal discharges. Balochistan: Later the Monsoon weather system is expected to move towards Balochistan coast. It may produce heavy to very heavy rainfall in Balochistan especially in coastal areas including Gawadar, Jiwani, Pasni, Ormara, Lasbella etc. Hilly areas especially in Southern Balochistan may experience flash floods. Due to very rough sea conditions, fishermen are advised not to venture into the Sea from June, Special Bulletins were regularly issued on subsequent development and movement of the tropical cyclone until its dissipation on June 26, Information dissiminated regarding Cyclone 03B First Bulletin

28 June PST UPDATE: Weather Advisory No.5 for Sindh / Balochistan (Tropical Cyclone Warning) Tropical Cyclone 03B (YEMYIN) now lies at about 100 km* from Karachi and likely to move in a North-Westerly direction in the next 6-12 hours and likely to intensify further and cross Balochistan coast in the evening of 26th June 2007 between 62.0° E 65.5° E Evacuation from coastal towns of Balochistan is highly recommended. Tropical cyclone is likely to cause widespread destruction and coastal flooding along Balochistan coast due to extremely heavy rainfall, gale winds and associated storm surge. Evacuation from coastal towns of Balochistan is highly recommended.PMD 28

29 Modified Track Forecast By PMD First Track Forecast By PMD Observed Track 06 GMT 06/25/ N 67.3E 40 Tropical Storm 12 GMT 06/25/ N 66.4E 40 Tropical Storm 18 GMT 06/25/ N 66.3E 50 Tropical Storm 00 GMT 06/26/ N 65.2E 60 Tropical Storm 06 GMT 06/26/ N 64.2E 50 Tropical Storm 12 GMT 06/26/ N 63.0E 45 Tropical Storm 18 GMT 06/26/ N 62.6E 35 Tropical Depression Tracking info for Tropical Cyclone 03B Time Lat/ Lon Wind(mph) Storm type Pasni 29

30 Details about Cyclone 02A – GoNU (4 th -7 th June, 2007)PMD 30

31 Date : 04/06/2007 Time: 2000 PST TROPICAL CYCLONE-02A (GONU) WATCH ADVISORY NO:02 This morning Tropical Cyclone 02-A (GONU) moves towards Coast of Oman. It is likely to continue to move in northwesterly direction, during next 12 hours, towards Coast of Oman. Presently none of land areas of Pakistan is under threat. However, the sea conditions are likely to become very rough. Fishermen are advised not to venture into the open sea beyond 20 km from Sindh Cast during next 36 hours. Fishermen of Balochistan coast especially of Gawadar and Jiwani coastal areas are advised to suspend their fishing activities from Tuesday morning 31

32 Cyclone Annimation 32

33 Early Warning Information Dissemination Flow-chart NDMA PMD PDMA DDMA TMA UCs Communities Federal Ministries / Departments / Armed Forces Electronic & Print MediaPMD 33

34 FLOOD FORECASTING & DISSIMINATION SYSTEM FLOOD FORECASTING & DISSIMINATION SYSTEMPMD 34

35 Flood Forecasting Division (FFD) Lahore is a specialized unit of PMD for this purpose. ResponsibilitiesResponsibilities i.Flood Forecasting ii.River stream flow forecasting iii.Water Management at Dams specially during Monsoon HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL SERVICES AND FLOOD FORECASTING PMD 35

36 Flood Forecasting System  10-cm Doppler Radar at (FFD) Lahore  QPM Radar at Sialkot  Nationwide Network of Weather Surveillance Radars.  Satellite Ground Station  Computer Models  Meteorological Analysis CentrePMD 36

37 REMOTE SENSING REMOTE SENSING of the rainfall amounts from upper catchments of rivers as input data to the rainfall-runoff models is done through SatelliteRadarPMD 37

38 RANGE 450 KMS (RANGE & HEIGHT 3D)PMD 38

39 FLOOD CATEGORIES 39

40 CATEGORY - I FLOODS 40

41 F.F.D LAHORE 41

42 F.F.D LAHORE 42

43 F.F.D LAHORE 43

44 F.F.D LAHORE 44

45 F.F.D LAHORE 45

46 F.F.D LAHORE 46

47 F.F.D LAHORE 47

48 CATEGORY - II FLOODS 48

49 D 49

50 D 50

51 D 51

52 D 52

53 D 53

54 D 54

55 D 55

56 D 56

57 D 57

58 D 58

59 CATEGORY - III FLOODS 59

60 D 60

61 D 61

62 D 62

63 D 63

64 D 64

65 D 65

66 D 66

67 D 67

68 D 68

69 D 69

70 D 70

71 D 71

72 FLOOD WARNING SYSTEM 72

73 D 73

74 D 74

75 D 75

76 D 76

77 D BLUE ALERT 77

78 D BLUE ALERT 78

79 D BLUE ALERT YELLOW ALERT 79

80 D BLUE ALERT YELLOW ALERT 80

81 D BLUE ALERT YELLOW ALERT RED ALERT 81

82 D BLUE ALERT YELLOW ALERT RED ALERT 82

83 D BLUE ALERT YELLOW ALERT RED ALERT 83

84 D BLUE ALERT YELLOW ALERT RED ALERT 84

85 COLOUR CODED QUALITATIVE FORECAST BLUE ALERT YELLOW ALERT RED ALERTPMD 85

86 FLOOD FORECAST 86

87 87

88 PMD 88

89 DESSIMINATION of FLOOD FORECAST 89

90 90

91 91

92 PMD 92

93 PMD 93

94 PMD 94

95 PMD 95

96 PMD 96

97 Drought/Environment monitoring and early warning system in PakistanPMD 97

98 The most complex natural hazards, affecting more people than any other natural hazard. DROUGHT...PMD 98

99 Spatial ExtentPMD 99

100 Drought/Environment Monitoring & Early Warning Centre Additional data generation Resources in this project AWS in Sindh & Balochistan 40 Rain-guage stations500 Soil Moisture & Under Ground Water situation Monitoring Regional Drought Centre National Centre for Drought/ Environment Monitoring Project Components PMD 100

101 1.Serve as a hub for the collection, consolidation and analysis of drought related data from all possible sources in the country 2.Prepare and issue weekly drought monitors & moisture stresses in different regions of country based on various indices. 3.Advising government agencies on drought related matters including drought declaration. 4.Conduct research in drought related issues and develop statistical models for improved drought prediction. OBJECTIVES OF THE PROJECT OBJECTIVES OF THE PROJECTPMD 101

102 The Data acquisition ItemQuantityTarget Area AWS with Soil Moisture Sensors 40Southern half of country Self Recording Rain Gauges 38Catchment areas of Dams Ordinary Rain Gauges 500Southern half of country Remote Sensing & GIS 1Whole CountryPMD 102

103 Present Procedure For Drought Monitoring & Early WarningPMD 103

104 Drought advisories are prepared using; SPI calculated from point rainfall data Water availability in reservoirs Soil Moisture data where available ETo data River & Stream Flow Data Field reports Drought AdvisoriesPMD 104

105 PMD 105

106 PMD 106

107 Drought Conditions as on November, 2004 Balochistan Scenario Six districts of western Balochistan have been affected by Severe Drought. Population statistics depicts that 1.3 million people are drought affecties at present. Areas of Western Balochistan under Severe DroughtPMD 107

108 Conclusion Drought is still around - we will be again in stress period like in 2004 if: –we did not receive winter rains we should be ready for response/ relief –Indications are already there. Current ScenarioPMD 108

109 We may Reduce Impacts By: Understanding Dangers and Risks Integrate, Simplify & Expedite Processes Disseminate Warnings to vulnerables Decide & Act on Latest AssessmentsRecommendationsPMD 109

110 110


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