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FOR DISASTER MANAGEMENT

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Presentation on theme: "FOR DISASTER MANAGEMENT"— Presentation transcript:

1 FOR DISASTER MANAGEMENT
EARLY WARNING SYSTEM IN PAKISTAN FOR DISASTER MANAGEMENT Azmat Hayat Khan Director Pakistan Meteorological Department

2 PMD Seismology Meteorology Hydrology

3 PMD A KEY OBJECTIVE Early Warnings of hazards due to Meteorological, Hydrological & Geophysical Phenomena such as Tropical Cyclones, Heavy Rains, Floods & Tsunamies etc.

4 The Early Warning PMD The provision of timely & effective information through identified institutions, that demands individuals exposed to hazard to take action to avoid or reduce their risk and prepare for effective response

5 Components of Early Warning System
PMD Risk Knowledge Monitoring & Warning Service Tools & Technologies for Monitoring Capacity to analyze info. Capacity for reliable prediction Dissemination & Communication Response Capacities

6 PMD

7 PMD

8 Improved Data Acquisition System
An integrated observing system composed of remote-sensing, telemetric and automatic observation platforms has gradually become in shape, which are space-based, airborne and land-sited, so as to measure continuously multiple parameters of the climate system from all dimensions, with higher spatial and temporal resolution and with higher accuracies.

9 Automation of Meteorological Observing Network
Astore Balakot Muzaffarabad Parachinar Bannu D.I.Khan Zhob Sibbi Central data archiving Station Automatic Weather Stations Khuzdar Larkana Nawabshah Jiwani Chhor

10 PMD IBD DIK RHK KHI LHR RADAR NETWORK OF PMD 5 cm radar at Islamabad
10 cm radar at FFD Lahore Area covered by Doppler radar at Lahore LHR

11 WEATHER & PRECIPITATION MONITORING USING THE EARTH SATELLITES
PMD is maintaining satellite ground stations (HRPT, DVB, SADIS) at Islamabad, Quetta and Karachi.

12 Automation of weather Data analysis
PMD

13 Automation of weather Data analysis
PMD

14 Adoption of New tools and technologies for effective Role

15 NWP Facilities PMD High Speed Server Client internet
datasets in any format supported by WMO Formats PMD High Speed Server performs analysis operations supports extended request types for analysis, upload GrADS data GRIB data manages sessions, translates dataset names NetCDF data etc.. internet Result cache holds temporary data (uploaded, generated by a previous operation, or transferred directly from another server) for use in remote analysis client libraries GrADS Matlab IDL etc.. data appears to client as local file, in a standard format (i.e, NetCDF, etc.) Client data and requests Encapsulated Analysis Requests

16 Meteorological service for Hazard Mitigation
Flood Warnings Cyclone Warnings Drought Monitoring Fisheries/Marine Safety Meteorological Information Flash flood monitoring Heat Wave /Cold Wave Prediction Fog /Rain prediction for road safety Energy Economic sectors may get specialized meteorological services to acquire benefits and avoid or reduce economic losses. Water resource management Agromet Advisories

17 LINKAGE TO OTHER MINISTRIES
PMD AVIATION METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES MINISTRY OF DEFENCE FLOOD FORECASTING SERVICES MINISTRY OF WATER & POWER AGROMETEOROLOGICAL SERVICES MINISTRY OF AGRICULTURE NEW MOON PREDICTION & ASTRONOMICAL DATA ANALYSIS MINISTRY OF RELIGIOUS AFFAIRS R & D & RENEWABLE ENERGY RESOURCES MINISTRY OF SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY FORECASTING & CLIMATOLOGY PLANNING DIVISION & DISASTER MITIGATION ORGANIZATIONS

18 Ministry of Water & Water
D.O. No. F /FAM Ministry of Water & Water Federal Flood Commission, Riaz Ahmad Islamabad the Chairman Dear Doctor Sahib I feel honoured to acknowledge the accuracy of Meteorological Department’s recent flood forecast during August, 1997 record rainfall. Early warnings and consequent pre-releases from Mangla Dam saved the country from flood damages of the tune of approximately 5 billion rupees. With best regards, sd/ (RIAZ AHMAD)

19 D.O. No. F /FAM Ministry of Food, Agriculture & Livestock Government of Pakistan, Mian Abdul Sattar Laleka Islamabad the Minister My Dear General Sahib I feel pleasure in informing you that this year the country has been able to save about Rs crores on account of pesticides sprayed on cotton crops, because of the precise and timely weather forecast / advisories of Met. Office. I have already briefed the Prime Minister about this overwhelming success. With best regards, Yours sincerely (Abdul Sattar Laleka)

20 National Power Control Centre
Water & Power Development Authority National Power Control Centre No.CENPCC/ Islamabad the Director General, Meteorological Department H-8/2, Islamabad Subject: IMPORTANCE OF WEATHER REPORTS FOR LOAD FORECAST. Thanking you for the proposal attention to our requests. It will be appreciate to explain that daily weather reports help this centre in accurate Load Forecasts for the day. Based on Load Forecasts demand is placed on IPP’s thermal units. On WAPDA saved Rs.12.3 million for not demanding HUBCO unit, as your report had a forecast of Rain at Lahore, which proved correct. Concerned with weather of each city related to Load in turn, the undersigned shall be grateful if you supply us every minute weather details. (HABIB ULLAH) Chief Engineer NPCC

21 PMD Weather Services For MOUNTAINEERING

22 PMD’s Tropical Cyclone Early Warning System

23 Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre (TCWC)
Karachi PMD PMD has recently establishment a Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre (TCWC) at Karachi with a backup support at its main forecasting office Islamabad.

24 Tracking of TC PMD PMD made use of various tools and techniques in order to better predict the behaviour of the system (deep depression) especially prediction of track. Climatology (data, history, precedents) The synoptic situation Upper air pressure profile (Isohypse and Isallohypse at different heights) Upper air wind profile Satellite imagery/products Model outputs and Analysis of other regional and global centers, and etc.

25 PMD (Global Maritime Distress & Safety System (GMDSS)
PMD AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY UNDER GMDSS AS PER WMO CHARTER

26 PMD Details about Cyclone 03B – YEMYIN (24th -26th June, 2007)

27 Information dissiminated regarding Cyclone 03B
First Bulletin June 22, 2007 at 1300 PST Sindh: A strong Monsoon weather system (deep depression) over India is likely to approach Sindh coast in next hours. Widespread, heavy to very heavy rainfall is likely in Sindh especially in Southern Sindh and coastal areas including Karachi. Sea conditions will be extremely rough along Sindh coast. Fishermen are advised to stop fishing activities from 24th afternoon till 27th afternoon. Irrigation authorities may reduce the canal discharges. Balochistan: Later the Monsoon weather system is expected to move towards Balochistan coast. It may produce heavy to very heavy rainfall in Balochistan especially in coastal areas including Gawadar, Jiwani, Pasni, Ormara, Lasbella etc. Hilly areas especially in Southern Balochistan may experience flash floods. Due to very rough sea conditions, fishermen are advised not to venture into the Sea from June, 2007. Special Bulletins were regularly issued on subsequent development and movement of the tropical cyclone until its dissipation on June 26, 2007.

28 PMD June 26 0300 PST UPDATE: Weather Advisory No.5 for Sindh / Balochistan (Tropical Cyclone Warning) Tropical Cyclone 03B (YEMYIN) now lies at about 100 km* from Karachi and likely to move in a North-Westerly direction in the next 6-12 hours and likely to intensify further and cross Balochistan coast in the evening of 26th June 2007 between 62.0° E 65.5° E Tropical cyclone is likely to cause widespread destruction and coastal flooding along Balochistan coast due to extremely heavy rainfall, gale winds and associated storm surge. Evacuation from coastal towns of Balochistan is highly recommended.

29 First Track Forecast By PMD Observed Track
Modified Track Forecast By PMD Tracking info for Tropical Cyclone 03B Time Lat/ Lon Wind(mph) Storm type 06 GMT 06/25/ N 67.3E Tropical Storm 12 GMT 06/25/ N 66.4E Tropical Storm 18 GMT 06/25/ N 66.3E Tropical Storm 00 GMT 06/26/ N 65.2E Tropical Storm 06 GMT 06/26/ N 64.2E Tropical Storm 12 GMT 06/26/ N 63.0E Tropical Storm 18 GMT 06/26/ N 62.6E Tropical Depression Pasni

30 PMD Details about Cyclone 02A – GoNU (4th -7th June, 2007)

31 TROPICAL CYCLONE-02A (GONU) WATCH ADVISORY NO:02
 This morning Tropical Cyclone 02-A (GONU) moves towards Coast of Oman. It is likely to continue to move in northwesterly direction, during next 12 hours, towards Coast of Oman. Presently none of land areas of Pakistan is under threat. However, the sea conditions are likely to become very rough. Fishermen are advised not to venture into the open sea beyond 20 km from Sindh Cast during next 36 hours. Fishermen of Balochistan coast especially of Gawadar and Jiwani coastal areas are advised to suspend their fishing activities from Tuesday morning Date : 04/06/2007 Time: 2000 PST

32 Cyclone Annimation

33 Early Warning Information Dissemination Flow-chart
PMD Early Warning Information Dissemination Flow-chart NDMA PMD PDMA DDMA TMA UCs Communities Federal Ministries / Departments / Armed Forces Electronic & Print Media

34 PMD FLOOD FORECASTING & DISSIMINATION SYSTEM

35 HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL SERVICES AND FLOOD FORECASTING
PMD Flood Forecasting Division (FFD) Lahore is a specialized unit of PMD for this purpose. Responsibilities i. Flood Forecasting ii. River stream flow forecasting iii. Water Management at Dams specially during Monsoon

36 Flood Forecasting System
PMD 10-cm Doppler Radar at (FFD) Lahore QPM Radar at Sialkot Nationwide Network of Weather Surveillance Radars. Satellite Ground Station Computer Models Meteorological Analysis Centre

37 PMD REMOTE SENSING REMOTE SENSING of the rainfall amounts from upper catchments of rivers as input data to the rainfall-runoff models is done through Satellite Radar

38 PMD (RANGE & HEIGHT 3D) RANGE 450 KMS

39 FLOOD CATEGORIES

40 CATEGORY - I FLOODS

41 F.F.D LAHORE

42 F.F.D LAHORE

43 F.F.D LAHORE

44 F.F.D LAHORE

45 F.F.D LAHORE

46 F.F.D LAHORE

47 F.F.D LAHORE

48 CATEGORY - II FLOODS

49 D

50 D

51 D

52 D

53 D

54 D

55 D

56 D

57 D

58 D

59 CATEGORY - III FLOODS

60 D

61 D

62 D

63 D

64 D

65 D

66 D

67 D

68 D

69 D

70 D

71 D

72 FLOOD WARNING SYSTEM

73 D

74 D

75 D

76 D

77 D BLUE ALERT

78 D BLUE ALERT

79 D YELLOW ALERT BLUE ALERT

80 D YELLOW ALERT BLUE ALERT

81 D RED ALERT YELLOW ALERT BLUE ALERT

82 D RED ALERT YELLOW ALERT BLUE ALERT

83 D RED ALERT YELLOW ALERT BLUE ALERT

84 D RED ALERT YELLOW ALERT BLUE ALERT

85 COLOUR CODED QUALITATIVE FORECAST
PMD COLOUR CODED QUALITATIVE FORECAST BLUE ALERT YELLOW ALERT RED ALERT

86 FLOOD FORECAST

87

88 PMD

89 DESSIMINATION of FLOOD FORECAST

90

91

92 PMD

93 PMD

94 PMD

95 PMD

96 PMD

97 Drought/Environment monitoring and early warning system
PMD Drought/Environment monitoring and early warning system in Pakistan

98 PMD DROUGHT. . . The most complex natural hazards, affecting more people than any other natural hazard.

99 PMD Spatial Extent

100 PMD Drought/Environment Monitoring & Early Warning Centre
Project Components National Centre for Drought/ Environment Monitoring Regional Drought Centre Additional data generation Resources in this project AWS in Sindh & Balochistan 40 Rain-guage stations 500 Soil Moisture & Under Ground Water situation Monitoring

101 OBJECTIVES OF THE PROJECT
PMD OBJECTIVES OF THE PROJECT Serve as a hub for the collection, consolidation and analysis of drought related data from all possible sources in the country Prepare and issue weekly drought monitors & moisture stresses in different regions of country based on various indices. Advising government agencies on drought related matters including drought declaration. Conduct research in drought related issues and develop statistical models for improved drought prediction.

102 PMD The Data acquisition Item Quantity Target Area
AWS with Soil Moisture Sensors 40 Southern half of country Self Recording Rain Gauges 38 Catchment areas of Dams Ordinary Rain Gauges 500 Remote Sensing & GIS 1 Whole Country

103 Drought Monitoring & Early Warning
PMD Present Procedure For Drought Monitoring & Early Warning

104 PMD Drought Advisories Drought advisories are prepared using;
SPI calculated from point rainfall data Water availability in reservoirs Soil Moisture data where available ETo data River & Stream Flow Data Field reports

105 PMD

106 PMD

107 Drought Conditions as on November, 2004 Balochistan Scenario
PMD Areas of Western Balochistan under Severe Drought Six districts of western Balochistan have been affected by Severe Drought. Population statistics depicts that 1.3 million people are drought affecties at present.

108 PMD Current Scenario Conclusion
Drought is still around - we will be again in stress period like in 2004 if: we did not receive winter rains we should be ready for response/ relief Indications are already there.

109 PMD We may Reduce Impacts By: Recommendations
Understanding Dangers and Risks Integrate, Simplify & Expedite Processes Disseminate Warnings to vulnerables Decide & Act on Latest Assessments

110 Thank You Very Much for Attention


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