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Dr. Donald A. Wilhite School of Natural Resources University of Nebraska-Lincoln.

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Presentation on theme: "Dr. Donald A. Wilhite School of Natural Resources University of Nebraska-Lincoln."— Presentation transcript:

1 Dr. Donald A. Wilhite School of Natural Resources University of Nebraska-Lincoln

2 HMNDP Leadership! FAO WMO UNCCD

3 hmndp.org

4 School of Natural ResourcesApplied Climate Sciences Steps to HMNDP 16 th Session WMO Congress, 2011 Expert Meeting, Compendium of Best Practices on NDP, George Mason University, 2011 International Symposium on Integrated Drought Information Systems, Casablanca, st IOC meeting, Geneva Briefing session, Diplomatic Missions, April nd IOC meeting, Brasilia, October, 2012 Rio +20 Side Event, Rio de Janeiro, October 2012 Meeting with key sponsors to finalize program, November, 2012

5 School of Natural ResourcesApplied Climate Sciences Presentation Outline The ENIGMA OF DROUGHT — a sense of urgency – Drought as hazard, characteristics, definition – Hydro-illogical Cycle/Crisis Management Our CHANGING CLIMATE— CHANGING VULNERABILITY Building SOCIETAL RESILIENCE – Drought monitoring, early warning and information systems – Vulnerability/risk/impact assessments – Mitigation and response measures Moving towards a POLICY FRAMEWORK that enhances preparedness and risk reduction – Integrated Drought Management Programme (IDMP) – Compendium of best practices in support of NDP – Projected goals and outcomes of HMNDP: Recommendations for Future Actions

6 The Enigma of Drought

7 School of Natural ResourcesApplied Climate Sciences Drought—as hazard a normal part of climate.

8 School of Natural ResourcesApplied Climate Sciences Drought—as hazard a normal part of climate. occurs in virtually all climatic regimes. Mexico City, Mexico Addis Ababa, Ethiopia Adelaide, Australia

9 School of Natural ResourcesApplied Climate Sciences Drought—as hazard a normal part of climate. occurs in virtually all climatic regimes. characteristics vary between regions. definitions must be region and application specific. impacts are a good measure of severity and an indicator of societal vulnerability or resilience.

10 Defining Drought Drought is a deficiency of precipitation (intensity) from expected or “normal” that extends over a season or longer period of time (duration)..... Meteorological Drought -Hundreds of definitions—application and region specific Precipitation Time (months, years) Mean or Median Rainfall deciles

11 School of Natural ResourcesApplied Climate Sciences It’s so dry...

12 Defining Drought Drought is a deficiency of precipitation (intensity) from expected or “normal” that extends over a season or longer period of time (duration)..... Meteorological Drought and is insufficient to meet the demands of human activities and the environment (impacts). Agricultural, Hydrological and Socio-economic Drought -Hundreds of definitions—application and region specific

13 Evolution of Drought Types What are the indices and indicators? Cascading Impacts

14 Natural and Social Dimensions of Drought Rainfall Deficiencies Heat Stress Meteorological Soils Crops Range Livestock Forests Agricultural Water Supply Snow Depth Irrigation Recreation Tourism Hydropower Hydrological Socio-economic Increasing complexity of impacts and conflicts Societal Impact Drought Risk Reduction Decreasing emphasis on the natural event (precipitation deficiencies) Increasing emphasis on water/natural resource management & policy Time/Duration of the event

15 Drought compared to other natural hazards slow onset, “creeping phenomenon” –drought’s onset and end difficult to determine –commonality with climate change

16 Drought– it sneaks up on you!

17 Drought compared to other natural hazards slow onset, “creeping phenomenon” –drought onset and end difficult to determine –commonality with climate change absence of a universal definition impacts are nonstructural and spread over large areas severity and impacts best defined by multiple indices and indicators impacts are complex, affect many people, and vary on spatial and temporal timescales, multiple and migrating epicenters

18 30 month animation—USDM,

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20 Breaking the Hydro-illogical Cycle: An Institutional Challenge for Drought Management Crisis Management If you do what you’ve always done, you’ll get what you’ve always got. We MUST adopt a new paradigm for drought management!

21 Our Changing Climate IPCC

22 Mean Temperature Increase & Impact on Extreme Temperatures

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24 Hansen, NASA’s GISS, 2013 Shifting Distribution of Summer Temperature Anomalies

25 Adapting to Changing Extremes WMO The previous two decades recorded highest number of national 24 hour precipitation records Highest number of broken National maximum T°records in compared to the previous three decades Lowest number of broken National minimum T° records in compared to the previous four decades ( Source: WMO country data. Fits with IPCC  more hot days and more heat waves  Fewer cool nights  Intensification of heavy rainfall Highest Max. Temp. Lowest Min. Temp. Highest 24h Precipitation

26 Impacts of Global Climate Change: Increased frequency of extreme weather events Storms Floods Droughts along with heat waves, snow storms, etc. Managing for Climate Variability

27 School of Natural ResourcesApplied Climate Sciences The Climate Challenge for Drought Management Increasing mean temperature High temp. stress and heat waves/longer growing seasons Increased evapotranspiration Changes in precipitation amount, distribution and intensity Reduced soil moisture Changes in groundwater recharge Reduced runoff/stream flow resulting from reduced snowpack/sublimation Are droughts increasing in frequency, intensity and duration?

28 Drought impacts are more complex today as more economic sectors are affected, creating more conflicts between water users, i.e., societal vulnerability is dramatically different and changing. Agricultural production Food security Energy Transportation Tourism/Recreation Forest/rangeland fires Municipal water Water quality/quantity Environment Ecosystem services Health Changes in Societal Vulnerability

29 Meteorological events (Storms, etc.) Hydrological events (Flood, mass movement) Geophysical events (Earthquake, tsunami, volcanic eruption ) Number © 2013 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE – As at January 2013 Natural Catastrophes Worldwide Number Source: Munich Re

30 Insured losses in 2012 US$: 970bn Meteorological events (Storms, etc.) Hydrological events (Flood, mass movement ) Climatological events (Extreme temp, drought, forest fire) Geophysical events (Earthquake, tsunami, volcanic eruption) Extreme weather events affect the core business of the insurance industry! Natural Catastrophes Worldwide, Distribution of insured losses to different perils Source: Munich Re

31 Natural Disasters in the U.S Number of Events, Annual Totals Meteorological events (Storm) Hydrological events (Flood, mass movement) Climatological events (Extreme temperature, drought, forest fire) Geophysical events (Earthquake, tsunami, volcanic eruption) 2011 Total 171 Events © 2011 Munich Re Source: MR NatCatSERVICE 31

32 Drought Disaster Designations October 10, 2012 $16 billion in crop insurance indemnities Total drought impacts ~ $35-77 billion Superstorm Sandy ~ $50 billion

33 School of Natural ResourcesApplied Climate Sciences Emergency response has a place in drought risk management, but it can also lead to: greater vulnerability/decreased resilience to future drought events increased reliance on government and donor interventions.

34 School of Natural ResourcesApplied Climate Sciences Building Societal Resilience through National Drought Policies and Preparedness Plans: The Way Forward

35 School of Natural ResourcesApplied Climate Sciences

36 School of Natural ResourcesApplied Climate Sciences

37 The Cycle of Disaster Management proactive reactive Crisis management treats the symptoms, not the causes. Risk management increases coping capacity, builds resilience.

38 Reducing Societal Vulnerability Improve drought awareness Develop/improve monitoring, early warning and information delivery systems Improve decision support tools Complete risk assessments of vulnerable sectors, population groups, regions Improve understanding and quantification of drought impacts vs. mitigation costs Develop and implement drought preparedness plans Create national drought policies based on the principles of risk reduction

39 Follow-on Actions—HMNDP Integrated Drought Management Programme (IDMP) –Global Water Partnership/WMO initiative Project—Capacity Development to support National Drought Management Policies (UN-Water, WMO, UNCCD), Bucharest, July 2013 Soliciting donor support for HMNDP declaration recommendations Publication of key papers from HMNDP

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41 IDMP Objectives At global level, the IDMP will contribute to best practices related to drought risk management through: –Better scientific understanding of, and inputs for, drought management; –Improved knowledge base, with better access to information and products; –Drought risk assessment, monitoring, prediction, and early warning; –Policy and planning for drought preparedness and mitigation across sectors; and –Drought risk reduction and response.

42 School of Natural ResourcesApplied Climate Sciences National Drought Policy Goals  Proactive mitigation and planning measures, risk management, public outreach and resource stewardship.  Greater collaboration to enhance the national / regional / global observa­tion networks and information delivery systems to improve public unders­tanding of, and preparedness for, drought.  Incorporation of comprehensive governmental and private insurance and financial strategies into drought preparedness plans.

43 School of Natural ResourcesApplied Climate Sciences National Drought Policy Goals  Recognition of a safety net of emergency relief based on sound stewardship of natural resources and self-help at diverse governance levels.  Coordination of drought programmes and response in an effective, effi­cient and customer-oriented manner.

44 School of Natural ResourcesApplied Climate Sciences Resources Available Expert meeting to develop a compendium of best practices on national drought policy – Promoting standard approaches to Vulnerability and Impact Assessments – Implementing effective Drought Monitoring and Early Warning Systems – Enhancing Preparedness and Mitigation Actions – Implementing Emergency Response and Relief measures that reinforce National Drought Policy – Understanding the Cost of Inaction.

45 School of Natural ResourcesApplied Climate Sciences HMNDP Plenary Sessions Drought monitoring, early warning and information systems Drought prediction and predictability Drought vulnerability and impact assessment Enhancing drought preparedness and mitigation Planning for appropriate response and relief within the framework of National Drought Policy Constructing a framework for National Drought Policy: The way forward

46 Takeaway Messages Climate is changing—climate state and climate variability. Extreme climate events are increasing in frequency globally, managing impacts critically important. Time is NOW to change the paradigm from crisis to drought risk management. Time is NOW for all drought-prone nations to adopt appropriate drought policies that will reduce the impacts of future drought episodes through risk-based management.

47 School of Natural ResourcesApplied Climate Sciences Thanks for your attention! Contact Information: School of Natural Resources University of Nebraska-Lincoln


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