Presentation on theme: "School of Natural Resources University of Nebraska-Lincoln"— Presentation transcript:
1 School of Natural Resources University of Nebraska-Lincoln Managing Drought Risk in a Changing Climate: The Role of National Drought PolicyDr. Donald A. WilhiteSchool of Natural ResourcesUniversity of Nebraska-Lincoln
4 Steps to HMNDP 16th Session WMO Congress, 2011 Expert Meeting, Compendium of Best Practices on NDP, George Mason University, 2011International Symposium on Integrated Drought Information Systems, Casablanca, 20111st IOC meeting, GenevaBriefing session, Diplomatic Missions, April 20112nd IOC meeting, Brasilia, October, 2012Rio +20 Side Event, Rio de Janeiro, October 2012Meeting with key sponsors to finalize program, November, 2012Applied Climate SciencesSchool of Natural Resources
5 Presentation Outline The ENIGMA OF DROUGHT — a sense of urgency Drought as hazard, characteristics, definitionHydro-illogical Cycle/Crisis ManagementOur CHANGING CLIMATE—CHANGING VULNERABILITYBuilding SOCIETAL RESILIENCEDrought monitoring, early warning and information systemsVulnerability/risk/impact assessmentsMitigation and response measuresMoving towards a POLICY FRAMEWORK that enhances preparedness and risk reductionIntegrated Drought Management Programme (IDMP)Compendium of best practices in support of NDPProjected goals and outcomes of HMNDP: Recommendations for Future ActionsApplied Climate SciencesSchool of Natural Resources
7 Drought—as hazard a normal part of climate. Applied Climate Sciences School of Natural Resources
8 Drought—as hazard a normal part of climate. occurs in virtually all climatic regimes.Addis Ababa, EthiopiaMexico City, MexicoAdelaide, AustraliaApplied Climate SciencesSchool of Natural Resources
9 Drought—as hazard a normal part of climate. occurs in virtually all climatic regimes.characteristics vary between regions.definitions must be region and application specific.impacts are a good measure of severity and an indicator of societal vulnerability or resilience.Applied Climate SciencesSchool of Natural Resources
10 Defining Drought Rainfall deciles -Hundreds of definitions—application and region specificDrought is a deficiency of precipitation (intensity) from expected or “normal” that extends over a season or longer period of time (duration)Meteorological DroughtRainfall decilesAll droughts begin with a ‘deficiency of precipitation’, sometimes also associated with high temperatures, high winds, etc.When these conditions extend over a long period of time, they begin to affect many economic sectors and the environment.PrecipitationMean or MedianTime (months, years)
11 It’s so dry . . .Applied Climate SciencesSchool of Natural Resources
12 Defining Drought Meteorological Drought Agricultural, Hydrological and -Hundreds of definitions—application and region specificDrought is a deficiency of precipitation (intensity) from expected or “normal” that extends over a season or longer period of time (duration)Meteorological Droughtand is insufficient to meet the demands of human activities and the environment (impacts).Agricultural,Hydrological andSocio-economic Drought
13 Evolution of Drought Types Cascading ImpactsWhat are the indices and indicators?
14 Natural and Social Dimensions of Drought Decreasing emphasis on the natural event (precipitation deficiencies)Increasing emphasis on water/natural resource management & policyIncreasing complexity of impacts and conflictsRainfallDeficienciesHeat StressSoilsCropsRangeLivestockForestsWater SupplySnow DepthIrrigationRecreationTourismHydropowerDrought RiskReductionHydrologicalAgriculturalMeteorologicalSocio-economicSocietal ImpactTime/Duration of the event
15 Drought compared to other natural hazards slow onset, “creeping phenomenon”drought’s onset and end difficult to determinecommonality with climate change
17 Drought compared to other natural hazards slow onset, “creeping phenomenon”drought onset and end difficult to determinecommonality with climate changeabsence of a universal definitionimpacts are nonstructural and spread over large areasseverity and impacts best defined by multiple indices and indicatorsimpacts are complex, affect many people, and vary on spatial and temporal timescales, multiple and migrating epicenters
20 Breaking the Hydro-illogical Cycle: An Institutional Challenge for Drought Management Crisis ManagementIf you do what you’ve always done, you’ll get what you’ve always got.We MUST adopt a new paradigm for drought management!
22 Mean Temperature Increase & Impact on Extreme Temperatures Box TS.5, Figure 1. Schematic showing the effect on extreme temperatures when the mean temperature increases, for a normal temperature distribution.
24 Shifting Distribution of Summer Temperature Anomalies Hansen, NASA’s GISS, 2013
25 Adapting to Changing Extremes Highest 24h Precipitation WMOHighest Max. Temp.Highest number of broken National maximum T°records in compared to the previous three decadesFits with IPCC more hot days andmore heat wavesLowest Min. Temp.Lowest number of broken National minimum T° records in compared to the previous four decades Fewer cool nightsHighest 24h PrecipitationThe previous two decades recorded highest number of national 24 hour precipitation recordsIntensification of heavy rainfall(Source: WMO country data.
26 Managing for Climate Variability StormsImpacts of Global Climate Change:Increased frequency of extreme weather eventsFloodsDroughtsalong with heat waves, snow storms, etc.
27 The Climate Challenge for Drought Management Increasing mean temperatureHigh temp. stress and heat waves/longer growing seasonsIncreased evapotranspirationChanges in precipitation amount, distribution and intensityReduced soil moistureChanges in groundwater rechargeReduced runoff/stream flow resulting from reduced snowpack/sublimationAre droughts increasing in frequency, intensity and duration?Applied Climate SciencesSchool of Natural Resources
28 Changes in Societal Vulnerability Drought impacts are more complex today as more economic sectors are affected, creating more conflicts between water users, i.e., societal vulnerability is dramatically different and changing.Agricultural productionFood securityEnergyTransportationTourism/RecreationForest/rangeland firesMunicipal waterWater quality/quantityEnvironmentEcosystem servicesHealth
30 Natural Catastrophes Worldwide, 1980-2012 Distribution of insured losses to different perilsInsured losses in 2012 US$: 970bnExtreme weather events affect the core business of the insurance industry!Meteorological events(Storms, etc.)Hydrological events(Flood, mass movement)Climatological events (Extreme temp,drought, forest fire)Geophysical events (Earthquake, tsunami, volcanic eruption)Source: Munich Re
33 greater vulnerability/decreased resilience to future drought events Emergency response has a place in drought risk management, but it can also lead to:greater vulnerability/decreased resilience to future drought eventsincreased reliance on government and donor interventions.Applied Climate SciencesSchool of Natural Resources
34 Building Societal Resilience through National Drought Policies and Preparedness Plans: The Way ForwardApplied Climate SciencesSchool of Natural Resources
35 RISK Hazard Vulnerability Risk x = EXPOSURE Severity/Magnitude - Intensity/DurationFrequencySpatial extentTrends- Historical- FutureImpactsEarly warningSOCIAL FACTORSPopulation growthPopulation shiftsUrbanizationTechnologyLand use changesEnvironmentaldegradationWater use trendsGovernmentpoliciesawarenessRISKApplied Climate SciencesSchool of Natural Resources
36 RISK Hazard Vulnerability Risk x = EXPOSURE SOCIAL FACTORS Applied Climate SciencesSchool of Natural Resources
37 The Cycle of Disaster Management Risk management increases coping capacity, builds resilience.proactivereactiveCrisis management treats the symptoms, not the causes.
38 Reducing Societal Vulnerability Improve drought awarenessDevelop/improve monitoring, early warning and information delivery systemsImprove decision support toolsComplete risk assessments of vulnerable sectors, population groups, regionsImprove understanding and quantification of drought impacts vs. mitigation costsDevelop and implement drought preparedness plansCreate national drought policies based on the principles of risk reduction
39 Follow-on Actions—HMNDP Integrated Drought Management Programme (IDMP)Global Water Partnership/WMO initiativeProject—Capacity Development to support National Drought Management Policies (UN-Water, WMO, UNCCD), Bucharest, July 2013Soliciting donor support for HMNDP declaration recommendationsPublication of key papers from HMNDP
41 IDMP ObjectivesAt global level, the IDMP will contribute to best practices related to drought risk management through:Better scientific understanding of, and inputs for, drought management;Improved knowledge base, with better access to information and products;Drought risk assessment, monitoring, prediction, and early warning;Policy and planning for drought preparedness and mitigation across sectors; andDrought risk reduction and response.
42 National Drought Policy Goals Proactive mitigation and planning measures, risk management, public outreach and resource stewardship.Greater collaboration to enhance the national / regional / global observation networks and information delivery systems to improve public understanding of, and preparedness for, drought.Incorporation of comprehensive governmental and private insurance and financial strategies into drought preparedness plans.Applied Climate SciencesSchool of Natural Resources
43 National Drought Policy Goals Recognition of a safety net of emergency relief based on sound stewardship of natural resources and self-help at diverse governance levels.Coordination of drought programmes and response in an effective, efficient and customer-oriented manner.Applied Climate SciencesSchool of Natural Resources
44 Resources AvailableExpert meeting to develop a compendium of best practices on national drought policyPromoting standard approaches to Vulnerability and Impact AssessmentsImplementing effective Drought Monitoring and Early Warning SystemsEnhancing Preparedness and Mitigation ActionsImplementing Emergency Response and Relief measures that reinforce National Drought PolicyUnderstanding the Cost of Inaction.Applied Climate SciencesSchool of Natural Resources
45 HMNDP Plenary Sessions Drought monitoring, early warning and information systemsDrought prediction and predictabilityDrought vulnerability and impact assessmentEnhancing drought preparedness and mitigationPlanning for appropriate response and relief within the framework of National Drought PolicyConstructing a framework for National Drought Policy: The way forwardApplied Climate SciencesSchool of Natural Resources
46 Takeaway MessagesClimate is changing—climate state and climate variability.Extreme climate events are increasing in frequency globally, managing impacts critically important.Time is NOW to change the paradigm from crisis to drought risk management.Time is NOW for all drought-prone nations to adopt appropriate drought policies that will reduce the impacts of future drought episodes through risk-based management.
47 Thanks for your attention! Contact Information:School of Natural ResourcesUniversity of Nebraska-LincolnApplied Climate SciencesSchool of Natural Resources