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IPCC and Carbon Management Responding to Climate Change, Spring 2011 Peter Schlosser, Juerg Matter.

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Presentation on theme: "IPCC and Carbon Management Responding to Climate Change, Spring 2011 Peter Schlosser, Juerg Matter."— Presentation transcript:

1 IPCC and Carbon Management Responding to Climate Change, Spring 2011 Peter Schlosser, Juerg Matter

2 2 Carbon Reservoir Sizes

3 3 Carbon Cycle

4 The problem Developed and developing countries are using increasing amounts of primary energy Most of this primary energy is produced by burning of fossil fuel This has already led to significant increases in the atmospheric concentrations of the greenhouse gas CO 2 accounting for roughly one half of the anthropogenically induced Greenhouse Gas Effect Future projections point towards at least doubling of the natural atm CO 2 concentrations (560 ppm) The projected global warming would be in the vicinity of 3 degrees Celsius (IPCC 2007)

5 IPCC 2007 Recognizing the problem of potential global climate change, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) established the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in It is open to all members of the UN and WMO. The role of the IPCC is to assess on a comprehensive, objective, open and transparent basis the scientific, technical and socio-economic information relevant to understanding the scientific basis of risk of human-induced climate change, its potential impacts and options for adaptation and mitigation. The IPCC does not carry out research nor does it monitor climate related data or other relevant parameters. It bases its assessment mainly on peer reviewed and published scientific/technical literature. Its role, organisation, participation and general procedures are laid down in the "Principles Governing IPCC Work"

6 IPCC 2007

7 IPCC 2007

8 IPCC 2007

9 Global Fossil Fuel CO 2 emissions Fossil fuel CO 2 emissions based on data of Marland and Boden (DOE, Oak Ridge) and British Petroleum. Source: Hansen and Sato, PNAS, 98, 14778, 2001.

10 Global Fossil Fuel CO 2 emissions Global fossil fuel CO 2 emissions with division into portions that remain airborne or are soaked up by the ocean and land. Source: Hansen and Sato, PNAS, 101, 16109, 2004.

11 Primary Energy sources Source: EIA International Energy Outlook, 2006

12 Keeling curve images/2009/01/700px- mauna_loa_carbon_dioxide.png

13 IPCC 2007

14 IPCC 2007

15 IPCC 2007

16 Virgin Earth Challenge

17 Carbon Capture and Storage Why And How? Contributions from Klaus S. Lackner Columbia University Earth Institute School of Engineering & Applied Sciences

18 Norway USA France UK Brazil Russia India China $0.38/kWh (primary) Energy, Wealth, Economic Growth EIA Data 2002

19 Energy, Wealth, Economic Growth EIA Data 2002

20 IPCC Model Simulations of CO 2 Emissions

21 Energy Will Not Run Out H.H. Rogner, 1997

22 Fossil Fuel Resources Source: BP, Stat. Review 2005 bnboe = billion barrels of oil equivalent USA Total Oil Consumption: 7.5 billion barrels per year

23 currently world’s 2 nd largest producer and consumer 50% of U.S. electricity generation total consumption projected to increase ~30% by 2030 U.S. Coal Facts

24 Coal Facts  fastest growing energy source in the world  plentiful and inexpensive compared to oil and natural gas  10 billion metric tons of CO 2 emissions per year (global CO 2 emissions are 25 billion metric tons per year)  USA: 154 new 500 megawatt, coal-fired electricity plants between 2005 and 2030  China: Construction of the equivalent of one large coal-fired power plant per week

25 U.S. Coal Regions Source: USGS,

26 U.S. Electric Power Generation

27 Cumulative CO 2 Emissions  Lifetime fossil fuel emissions from existing and planned power plants by 2030 will be comparable to the sum of all emission from the past 252 years

28 The Mismatch in Carbon Sources and Sinks 44 33 11 22 55 Fossil Carbon Consumption to date 180ppm increase in the air 30% of the Ocean acidified 30% increase in Soil Carbon 50% increase in biomass

29 Carbon as a Low-Cost Source of Energy H.H. Rogner, 1997 Lifting Cost Cumulative Gt of Carbon Consumed US1990$ per barrel of oil equivalent Cumulative Carbon Consumption as of1997

30 Refining Carbon Diesel Coal Shale Fossil fuels are fungible Tar Oil Natural Gas Jet Fuel Heat Electricity Ethanol Methanol DME Hydrogen Synthesis Gas

31 The Challenge: Holding the Stock of CO 2 constant Constant emissions at 2010 rate 33% of 2010 rate 10% of 2010 rate 0% of 2010 rate Extension of Historic Growth Rates 560 ppm 280 ppm

32 What do we know? Demand for energy services will grow –Increased demand can be accommodated Environmental constraints will tighten –Bigger output, less tolerance for pollution –Climate change threat Cost of carbon dioxide emissions will rise –Very difficult to saturate demand for CO 2 emission reductions

33 What do we not know? Price of carbon –Form of regulation is highly uncertain –Time line is difficult to estimate could be very fast Tipping point has been reached Price of oil and gas –Are we at Hubbert’s Peak? –Gas could last much longer than thought Deep sources, hydrates Technology Advances –Fuel cells, Carbon Capture and Storage, Nuclear Ultimate Efficiency and Energy Intensity –Surprises could go both ways M. King HubbertM. King Hubbert's original 1956 prediction of world petroleum production rates

34 Options Greater efficiency / Reduction in consumption Change fuel mix Substitute renewables for fossil fuels Nuclear Carbon capture and storage

35 Introduction of Carbon Free Sources Renewable Energy –Hydro Electricity –Tides and Waves –Wind –Geothermal –Biomass –Waste Energy –Solar Energy Nuclear Energy –Fission –Fusion Driven by Fossil Fuel Prices and Carbon Price

36 Stabilization Wedges - A Concept and Game "Stabilization Wedges: Solving the Climate Problem for the next 50 Years with Current Technologies,” S. Pacala and R. Socolow, Science, August 13, 2004.

37 Billions of Tons Carbon Emitted per Year Historical emissions Historical Emissions Source: Carbon Mitigation Initiative

38 1.6 Interim Goal Billions of Tons Carbon Emitted per Year Historical emissions Flat path Stabilization Triangle The Stabilization Triangle Source: Carbon Mitigation Initiative

39 1.6 Interim Goal Billions of Tons Carbon Emitted per Year Historical emissions Flat path Stabilization Triangle The Stabilization Triangle Tougher CO 2 target ~500 ppm ~850 ppm Easier CO 2 target Source: Carbon Mitigation Initiative

40 1.6 Billions of Tons Carbon Emitted per Year Current path = “ramp ” Historical emissions Flat path GtC/y Eight “wedges” Goal: In 50 years, same global emissions as today The Stabilization Triangle Source: Carbon Mitigation Initiative

41 What is a “Wedge”? A “wedge” is a strategy to reduce carbon emissions that grows in 50 years from zero to 1.0 GtC/yr. The strategy has already been commercialized at scale somewhere. 1 GtC/yr 50 years Total = 25 Gigatons carbon Cumulatively, a wedge redirects the flow of 25 GtC in its first 50 years. A “solution” to the CO 2 problem should provide at least one wedge.

42 Energy Efficiency & Conservation (4) CO 2 Capture & Storage (3) Stabilization Triangle Renewable Fuels & Electricity (4) Forest and Soil Storage (2) Fuel Switching (1) 15 Wedge Strategies in 4 Categories Nuclear Fission (1) GtC/y 16 GtC/y Triangle Stabilization Source: Carbon Mitigation Initiative

43 Efficiency -> E, T, H / $ 1. Double fuel efficiency of 2 billion cars from 30 to 60 mpg. 2. Decrease the number of car miles traveled by half. 3. Use best efficiency practices in all residential and commercial buildings. 4. Produce current coal-based electricity with twice today's efficiency. E, T, H / $ Sectors affected: E = Electricity T = Transport H = Heat Cost based on scale of $ to $$$ Source: Carbon Mitigation Initiative

44 Fuel Switching -> E, H / $ Photo by J.C. Willett (U.S. Geological Survey).  Substitute 1400 natural gas electric plants for an equal number of coal-fired facilities.  Requires an amount of natural gas equal to that used for all purposes today. Source: Carbon Mitigation Initiative

45 Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) -> E, T, H / $$ Graphic courtesy of Alberta Geological Survey Implement CCS: 800 GW coal electric plants or 1600 GW natural gas electric plants or 180 coal synfuels plants or 10 times today’s capacity of hydrogen plants  There are currently three CCS projects that inject 1 million tons of CO 2 per year.  We need 3500 CCS projects by Source: Carbon Mitigation Initiative

46 Nuclear Electricity -> E / $$  Triple the world’s nuclear electricity capacity by 2055  The rate of installation required for a wedge from electricity is equal to the global rate of nuclear expansion from 1975 – Source: Carbon Mitigation Initiative

47 Wind Electricity -> E, T, H / $-$$  Install 1 million 2 MW windmills to replace coal-based electricity  Use 2 million windmills to produce hydrogen fuel  A wedge worth of wind electricity will require increasing current capacity by a factor of 30. Source: Carbon Mitigation Initiative

48 Solar Electricity -> E, T, H / $-$$ Courtesey: www.  Install 20,000 square kilometers for dedicated use by 2054  One wedge of solar electricity would mean a 700 times increase in current capacity Source: Carbon Mitigation Initiative

49 Biofuels -> T, H / $$  Scale up current global ethanol production by 30 times  Using current practices, one wedge requires planting an area the size of India with biofuel crops. Source: Carbon Mitigation Initiative

50 Carbon Capture and Storage Capture at the plant Capture from the air Long term disposal Driven solely by carbon price

51 Dividing The Fossil Carbon Pie 900 Gt C total 550 ppm Past 10yr

52 Removing the Carbon Constraint 5000 Gt C total Past

53 Options exist Triad of large options Myriad small contributors How does one create the right incentives?

54 A Triad of Large Scale Options Solar –Cost reduction and mass-manufacture Nuclear –Cost, waste, safety and security Fossil Energy –Zero emission, carbon storage and interconvertibility Markets will drive efficiency, conservation and alternative energy

55 Small Energy Resources Biomass –Sun and land limited Wind –Stopping the air over Colorado every day? Geothermal –Geographically limited Tides, Waves & Ocean Currents –Less than human power generation

56 Net Zero Carbon Economy CO 2 from distributed emissions Permanent & safe disposal CO 2 from concentrated sources Capture from power plants, cement, steel, refineries, etc. Geological Storage Mineral carbonate disposal Capture from air

57 CO 2 extraction from air Permanent & safe disposal CO 2 from concentrated sources Net Zero Carbon Economy

58 Lake Michigan 21 st century carbon dioxide emissions could exceed the mass of water in Lake Michigan

59 Storage Life Time 5000 Gt of C 200 years at 4 times current rates of emission Storage Slow Leak (0.04%/yr) 2 Gt/yr for 2500 years Current Emissions: 6Gt/year

60 Underground Injection statoil

61 Underground Injection

62 US Geologic Storage Capacity  Assumption: only 1 – 4% of geologic capacity can be used for CO 2 storage.  total estimated geological CO 2 storage: 3,600 – 12,900 billion tons of CO 2.  To put that in perspective, the United States’ current annual CO 2 emissions are about ~ 7 billion tons per year.

63 Source: Risk of Leakage

64 Killer Lake In 1986, an explosion of CO 2 from Lake Nyos, West of Cameroon, killed more than 1700 people and livestock up to 25 km away. Two lakes still contain large amounts of CO 2 (10 and 300 millions m 3 in Monoun and Nyos, respectively)

65 Gravitational Trapping Subocean Floor Disposal With Buoyancy Cap

66 Locations for injections

67 Energy States of Carbon Carbon Carbon Dioxide Carbonate 400 kJ/mole kJ/mole The ground state of carbon is a mineral carbonate

68 Rockville Quarry Mg 3 Si 2 O 5 (OH) 4 + 3CO 2 (g)  3MgCO 3 + 2SiO 2 +2H 2 O(l) +63kJ/mol CO 2

69 IPCC, 2005: Carbon Capture and Storage Special Report

70 CO 2 extraction from air Permanent & safe disposal CO 2 from concentrated sources Net Zero Carbon Economy

71 CO 2 N 2 H 2 O SO x, NO x and other Pollutants Carbon Air Zero Emission Principle Solid Waste Power Plant

72 Many Different Options Oxyfuel Combustion (ready for sequestration) –Naturally zero emission Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle –Difficult as zero emission AZEP Cycles (Advanced Zero Emission Plants) –Mixed Oxide Membranes Fuel Cell Cycles –Solid Oxide Membranes

73 Hydrogenation

74 CO 2 extraction from air Permanent & safe disposal CO 2 from concentrated sources Net Zero Carbon Economy

75 Relative size of a tank Electrical, mechanical storage Batteries etc. hydrogen gasoline

76 Air Flow Ca(OH) 2 Calcium hydroxide solution CO 2 diffusion CO 2 mass transfer is limited by diffusion in air boundary layer Ca(OH) 2 as an absorbent CaCO 3 precipitate

77 CO 2 1 m 3 of Air 40 moles of gas, 1.16 kg wind speed 6 m/s moles of CO 2 produced by 10,000 J of gasoline Volumes are drawn to scale

78 Air Extraction can compensate for CO 2 emissions anywhere Art Courtesy Stonehaven CCS, Montreal 2NaOH + CO 2  Na 2 CO 3

79 60m by 50m 3kg of CO 2 per second 90,000 tons per year 4,000 people or 15,000 cars Would feed EOR (Enhanced Oil Recovery) for 800 barrels a day. 250,000 units for worldwide CO 2 emissions

80 Wind area that carries 22 tons of CO 2 per year Wind area that carries 10 kW 0.2 m 2 for CO 2 80 m 2 for Wind Energy How much wind? (6m/sec) 50 cents/ton of CO 2 for contacting

81 Hydrogen or Air Extraction? Coal,Gas Fossil Fuel Oil HydrogenGasoline Consumption Distribution CO 2 TransportAir Extraction CO 2 Disposal

82 Take Home Messages IPCC: certainty about connection between human activity, increased greenhouse gases and global warming is increasing Carbon Management: There are technical options to influence the atmospheric CO 2 concentration –Sequestration schemes –CO 2 Extraction from atmosphere Hydrogen or Carbon based energy cycles? Virgin Earth Challenge: incentive for invention that leads to action Real hurdles not in science and engineering but in policy

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