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WMO Drought Activities Robert Stefanski Chief, Agricultural Meteorology Division WMO.

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Presentation on theme: "WMO Drought Activities Robert Stefanski Chief, Agricultural Meteorology Division WMO."— Presentation transcript:

1 WMO Drought Activities Robert Stefanski Chief, Agricultural Meteorology Division WMO

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3 Source: Atlas of Mortality and Economic Losses from Weather, Climate and Water Extremes (1970–2012), WMO, WMO- No WMO/CRED Analysis using EM-DAT data Main Distribution of (a) number of reported disasters, (b) reported deaths and (c) reported economic losses (1970–2012) (a)(b)(c) Global

4 WMO/CRED Analysis using EM-DAT data Main Global Source: Atlas of Mortality and Economic Losses from Weather, Climate and Water Extremes (1970–2012), WMO, WMO- No. 1123

5 Main WMO/CRED Analysis using EM-DAT data Source: Atlas of Mortality and Economic Losses from Weather, Climate and Water Extremes (1970–2012), WMO, WMO- No Regional Intercomparisons AFRSAMNCAPACEURASIA

6 6 Global Framework for Climate Services WORLD CLIMATE CONFERENCE - 3 Geneva, Switzerland 31 August–4 September 2009  Goal: Enable better management of the risks of climate variability and change and adaptation to climate change at all levels, through development and incorporation of science-based climate information and prediction into planning, policy and practice.

7 7 Why a Framework for Climate Services? Many countries lack the infrastructural, technical, human and institutional capacities to provide high-quality climate services. Infrastructural Capacities of Countries as of Aug 2010 to provide Basic, Essential, Full and Advanced Climate Services.

8 GFCS Priorities  Agriculture  Disaster risk reduction  Water  Health

9 9 GFCS Components  User Interface Platform (UIP)  Climate Services Information System (CSIS)  Observations and Monitoring  Research, Modeling and Prediction  Capacity Building

10 10 High-Level Meeting on National Drought Policies  March  Over 414 participants from 87 countries  Main Partners – UNCCD, FAO, WMO  Key message: Help countries move from reactive to proactive drought policies  12 representatives of UN agencies and international and regional organizations (UNU, IFRC, IOM, CBD, WFP, IAEA, UNECA, JRC, ICARDA, GWP, ACMAD, ISDR)  Final Declaration adopted –

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13 13 Regional National Drought Management Policy Workshops  Central & Eastern Europe, Romania - July 2013  Latin America and Caribbean, Brazil, Dec 2013  Asia-Pacific, Vietnam, May 2014  Eastern & Southern Africa, Ethiopia, Aug 2014  North Africa and SW Asia, Egypt, Nov 2014  West Africa / Wrap up – 2015

14 14 National Drought Management Policy Workshops - Sessions  Country Reports  Keynote Presentation – Don Wilhite  Drought monitoring and early warning systems - WMO  Vulnerability and risk assessment – UNCCD  Biodiversity and Drought – CBD  Drought preparedness, mitigation and responses – FAO 

15 15 Users of Agrometeorological Information Any drought decision-maker:  International officials (i.e. Red Cross, WFP, ISDR)  Government officials  Ag Extension agent, Water resource manager  Farmers, ranchers, foresters, fishers  Media  General public

16 Indicators & Triggers Definitions  Indicators: Variables to describe drought conditions. Examples: precipitation, streamflows, groundwater, reservoir levels, soil moisture, Palmer indices, …  Triggers : Specific values of the indicator that initiate and terminate each level of a drought plan, and associated management responses. Example: precipitation below the 5th percentile for two consecutive months is a Level 4 Drought. Source: Svoboda, 2009

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18 Integrated Drought Management Programme - IDMP

19 The Cycle of Disaster Management Source: National Drought Mitigation Center, University of Nebraska-Lincoln

20 IDMP Objectives  To support stakeholders at all levels by providing policy and management guidance and by sharing scientific information, knowledge and best practices for Integrated Drought Management.  Contributes to global coordination of drought-related efforts of existing organizations & agencies:  Better scientific understanding & inputs for drought management;  Drought risk assessment, monitoring, prediction and early warning;  Policy and planning for drought preparedness and mitigation across sectors; and  Drought risk reduction and response

21 IDMP Areas of Work 1)Development of Tools 2)Capacity Building 3)Demonstration Projects 4)Responding to Regional and National Needs 5) Development of Drought HelpDesk

22 Drought Help Desk Two function areas Help Yourself -Drought Management Tools -Questions and Answers bank -Reference Centre databases -Discussion group using social media Get Help -Personal assitance for Drought Management (policies, laws, strategies) -Capacity building -A rapid guidance to the tools of the Help Yourself

23 Current Actions - IDMP  Established at HMNDP – March 2013  Donor funding to IDMP  Technical Support Unit created Jul-Aug 2013  Advisory Committee & Management Meeting Sep 2014  IDMP regional projects  Central and Eastern Europe  West Africa  East Africa  South Asia Drought Monitoring System (IWMI)

24 Organizations interested to participate in IDMP (Status November 2014) Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD) Australian Bureau of Meteorology Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) International Center for Agricultural Research in the Dry Areas (ICARDA) International Commission for Irrigation and Drainage (ICID) International Water Management Institute (IWMI) Joint Research Centre (JRC) Mexico’s National Water Commission (CONAGUA) Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI) U.S. National Drought Mitigation Center (NDMC) UNDP Cap-Net United Nations Development Progamme (UNDP) United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNISDR) University of Nebraska Daugherty Water for Food Institute University of Southern Queensland UN-Water Decade Programme on Capacity Development World Bank

25 IDMP CEE (Central and Eastern Europe)  Executed by GWP CEE. Implementation well on its way with 64 agreements with 28 partner institutions. Implementation started in June Fundraising for continuation beyond 2015 ongoing.  Focus of the IDMP CEE:  Awareness raising  National Drought Policies/ Action Plans:  Guidelines for preparation of the drought management plans within river basin management plans according to European Union Water Framework Directive  National consultation dialogues to discuss preparation of drought management plans  Drought monitoring platform with information for the region on the status of drought  Demonstration projects testing innovative solutions for better resilience to drought  Capacity building trainings and workshops on national and regional levels  Documentation: Compendium of good practices

26 South Asian Drought Monitoring System a collaboration of GWP-WMO-IWMI as part of the WMO/GWP Integrated Drought Management Programme (IDMP)  Regional Drought Monitoring System to support regionally coordinated drought mitigation efforts that can be further tailored to the national level  Moving from crisis management to risk management  User ownership through GWP South Asian Regional Water Partnerships with the Country Water Partnerships in Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka to work with relevant actors from Government, research and civil society in the region to ensure the system addresses need.  Technical development by CGIAR International Water Management Institute integrating remote sensing and ground truth data (vegetation indices, rainfall data, soil information, hydrological data) for  Government support through WMO Climate Outlook Fora, Regional Climate Centers and HydroMet Services as platforms for knowledge exchange and user involvement

27 South Asian Drought Monitoring System Expected Outputs  Enhanced understanding and quantification of drought’s magnitude, spatial extent, and potential impact to capture the complexity of drought onset, progression, and extremity;  Produce historical to current high spatial and temporal drought risk maps to provide current view of drought propagation on a weekly-basis;  Identify drought hotspots, support preparedness and drought mitigation and provide early warning at regional, national, state and community level  Operational drought monitoring system(s) installed in national center(s) and regional hub  National capacity in drought monitoring built in all participating countries to address the gaps identified through needs assessment  Regional sharing and dissemination of operational drought information the users can download at country level for subsequent analysis

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29 29 Outcomes of Sep 2014 IDMP Meetings  Proposed publications:  Integrated Drought Management Framework Document  Drought Indices Handbook  Series of Case Studies  Engage with partners to exchange information on drought to further enhance HelpDesk  Develop cooperation mechanism with partners to allow contributions to IDMP in consistent way avoiding duplications.  Consider organizing an international conference on drought management in 2016

30 Seminar - Mali Met Service Presentation

31 Seminar – Farmers ask Questions

32 Seminar – Demonstration of Raingauge

33 33 Distribution of Rainguages to Nigerian Farmers

34  Goal: increased self-reliance of rural farmers by raising awareness of effective weather & climate risk management and sustainable use of weather and climate information and services for agricultural production.  ( ) involved 15 countries organized over 350 seminars  14,300 farmers participated including 1,400 rural women  7,000+ rain gauges were distributed METAGRI Project - Roving Seminars on Weather, Climate and Farmers in West Africa

35 S2S structure 35

36  Daily real-time forecasts + re-forecasts  3 weeks behind real-time  Common grid (1.5x1.5 degree)  Variables archived: about 80 variables including ocean variables, stratospheric levels and soil moisture/temperature  Archived in GRIB2 – NETCDF conversion available  Database to open in early 2015, initially with 3 models (ECMWF, NCEP and JMA)  Database Description

37 Time- range Resol.Ens. SizeFreq.HcstsHcst lengthHcst FreqHcst Size ECMWFD 0-32T639/319L91512/weekOn the flyPast 18y2/weekly11 UKMOD 0-60N96L854dailyOn the fly /month3 NCEPD 0-45N126L6444/dailyFix /daily1 ECD x0.6L4021weeklyOn the flyPast 15yweekly4 CAWCRD 0-60T47L1733weeklyFix /month33 JMAD 0-34T159L6050weeklyFix /month5 KMAD 0-60N216L854dailyOn the fly /month3 CMAD 0-45T106L404dailyFix1992-nowdaily4 Met.FrD 0-60T127L3151monthlyFix monthly11 SAWSD 0-60T42L196monthlyFix monthly6 HMCRD x1.4 L2820weeklyFix weekly10 S2S partners

38 Summary related to GDIS Issues  Global Drought Research / Forecasting important (WCRP, S2S, GFCS-CSIS)  Regional Monitoring can be linked to existing projects & capacity development at regional / national projects  Users / partners includes RCCs / RCOFs, UN (WFP, FAO), CCAFS, FEWSNET, GEOGLAM  Focus on areas not covered  Data issues need to be addressed at several levels (GFCS, WIGOS, GDIS partners)

39 Thank you for your attention

40 WMO/CRED Analysis using EM-DAT data Main Global Source: Atlas of Mortality and Economic Losses from Weather, Climate and Water Extremes (1970–2012), WMO, WMO- No. 1123

41 WMO Main WMO/CRED Analysis using EM-DAT data Source: Atlas of Mortality and Economic Losses from Weather, Climate and Water Extremes (1970–2012), WMO, WMO- No Regional Intercomparisons AFRSAMNCAPACEURASIA


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