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International Economics Li Yumei Economics & Management School of Southwest University.

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1 International Economics Li Yumei Economics & Management School of Southwest University

2 International Economics Chapter 7 Economic Growth and International Trade

3 Organization 7.1 Introduction 7.2 Growth of Factors of Production 7.3 Technical Progress 7.4 Growth and Trade: The Small-Country Case 7.5 Growth and Trade: The Large-Country Case 7.6 Growth, Change in Tastes, and Trade in Both Nations Chapter Summary Exercises

4 7.1 Introduction Previous Chapters discussed the basic three questions of international trade mostly in a static point of view in nature Cost Theory ( absolute and comparative advantage) — Classical Trade Theory H-O-Model — Modern Trade Theory Economics of Scale and Intra-industry Trade (different technology) — New Trade Theory  Economics of Scale  Imperfect Competition  Different Technology

5 7.1 Introduction Chapter 7 analyze in detail the effect of changes in factor endowments, technology, and tastes on the comparative advantage of each nation, the volume of trade, the terms of trade, the welfare of each nation through time The change of factor endowments and international trade The change of technology and international trade The change of taste and international trade

6 7.2 Growth of Factors of Production Labor Growth and Capital Accumulation Over Time The Rybczynski Theorem Conclusion

7 Labor Growth and Capital Accumulation Over Time Labor Growth Through time a nation’s population usually growths and with it the size of its labor force. Capital Accumulation Over Time Through time a nation’s stock of capital can be increased by utilizing part of its resources to produce capital equipment. Capital refers to all the man-made means of production, such as machinery, factories, office buildings, transportation, and communications, as well as to the education and training of the labor force, all of which greatly enhance the nation’s ability to produce goods and services.

8 Labor Growth and Capital Accumulation Over Time The Change of Labor and Capital and the Types of PPF Shifts In this topic the labor and capital of a nation are assumed to be homogeneous experiencing growth in two commodities (X labor intensive goods and Y capital intensive goods) under Constant returns of scale. The type and degree of the PPF shift depend on the rate at which L and K grow. There are three situations:  Balanced Growth If L and K grow at the same rate, the nation’s PPF will shift out evenly in all directions at the rate of factor growth. The slope of the old and new PPF will be the same at any point where they are cut by a ray from the origin.

9 Labor Growth and Capital Accumulation Over Time  Only the endowment of labor growth When only L growth, the output of commodity X grows proportionately more than the output of commodity Y. This is because L is used in the production of both commodities and L can be substituted for K to some extent in the production of both commodities, but X is the labor intensive goods, more labor flows to the production of X.  Only the endowment of capital growth When only K growth, the output of commodity Y grows proportionately more than the output of commodity X. This is because K is used in the production of both commodities and K can be substituted for L to some extent in the production of both commodities, but Y is the capital intensive goods, more capital flows to the production of Y.

10 Labor Growth and Capital Accumulation Over Time Illustration of Three Types of PPF Shift FIGURE 7-1 Growth of Labor and Capital Over Time

11 Labor Growth and Capital Accumulation Over Time Explanation of Figure 7-1  Left Panel of Figure 7-1— balanced growth With the double of L and K growth, the output of X and Y is doubled.  Right Panel of Figure 7-1 — unbalanced growth 1. With the double of L growth, the output of X is less than doubled L (140 and 275, 5 going to Y) 2. With the double of K growth, the output of Y is less than doubled K (70 and 130, 10 gong to X)

12 Labor Growth and Capital Accumulation Over Time Growth and International Trade  Balanced Growth: constant returns of scale, unchanged productivity, real per capital income and the welfare of the nation  If only L growth ( or L grows proportionately more than K), K/L will falls, the productivity of L, the returns of L, and real per capital income will fall;  If only K growth ( or K grows proportionately more than L), K/L will rise, the productivity of L, the returns to L, and real per capita income will rise.

13 The Rybczynski Theorem Content This theory means that at constant commodity prices, an increase in the endowment of one factor will increase by a greater proportion the output of the commodity intensive in that factor and will reduced the output of the other commodity. Reason With the growth of one factor, factor prices must also remain constant. It means that only K/L and the productivity of L and K also remain constant in the production of both commodities. The only way is the decline of the output of unchanged factor- intensive goods in order to release enough factor resources to remain the constant commodity prices.

14 The Rybczynski Theorem Illustration FIGURE 7-2 The Growth of Labor Only and the Rybczynski Theorem

15 The Rybczynski Theorem  Explanation of Figure Only considering the L double growth; 2. Before growth, the nation’s equilibrium point at B ( 130X and 20Y); 3. After growth, the nation’s equilibrium point at M ( 270X and 10Y); 4. The output of X is more than double while the decline of Y output;  Reason Labor growth will lead to the increase of X output, at the same time some labor and capital are also transferred from the production of Y to X in order to remain the constant prices. This is called the magnification effect. This is similar with only K growth.

16 Conclusion With constant returns to scale and constant prices, if L and K grow at the same rate (balanced growth), the nation’s PPF will shift out evenly in all directions at the rate of factor growth, and output per worker will remain constant. If L grows faster than K, the nation’s PPF will shift proportionately more in the direction of the L-intensive commodity, and output per worker will decline. The opposite is true if K grows faster than L. The Rybczynski Theorem postulates that at constant commodity prices, an increase in the endowment of one factor will increase by a greater proportion the output of the commodity intensive in that factor and will reduce the output of the other commodity.

17 7.3 Technical Progress Neutral, Labor-Saving, and Capital- Saving Technical Progress Technical Progress and the Nation’s Production Frontier Conclusion

18 Neutral, Labor-Saving, and Capital-Saving Technical Progress John Hickesian (British Economist) Technical Progress Theory Technical progress is usually classified into neutral, labor saving, or capital saving three types of technical progress.  Neutral technical progress It means the increase of the productivity of L and K in the same proportion, so that K/L remains the same after the neutral technical progress as it was before at unchanged relative factor prices (w/r). This happens is that a given output can now be produced with less L and less K.

19 Neutral, Labor-Saving, and Capital-Saving Technical Progress  Labor-saving technical progress The increase of the productivity of K proportionately more than the productivity of L. As a result, K is substituted for L in production and K/L rises at unchanged w/r. It means the more used K per unit of labor, this is called labor saving. With a given output, the fewer units of L and K used and higher K/L  Capital-saving technical progress The increase of the productivity of L proportionately more than the productivity of K. As a result, L is substituted for K in production and L/K rises at unchanged w/r. It means the more used L per unit of capital, this is called capital saving. With a given output, the fewer units of L and K used and higher L/K ratio.

20 Technical Progress and the Nation ’ s Production Frontier The technical progress causes the nation’s PPF shift outward With the technical progress, it improves the productivity and saves the factor used amount to produce the given output. The type and degree of the shift depend on the type and rate of technical progress in either or both commodities. Here only the neutral technical progress is analyzed Neutral Technical Progress With the same rate of neutral technical progress in the production of both commodities, the nation’s PPF will shift out evenly in all directions at the same rate at which technical progress takes place.

21 Technical Progress and the Nation ’ s Production Frontier Illustration of Neutral Technical Progress (Figure 7.3)  The comparison of a nation’s PPF before technical progress and after technical progress (the productivity of L and K doubles in the production of commodity X or commodity Y  When the productivity of L and K doubles in the production of commodity X only, the output of X doubles for each output level of commodity Y  When the productivity of L and K doubles in the production of commodity Y only, the output of Y doubles for each output level of commodity X See Figure 7.3

22 Technical Progress and the Nation ’ s Production Frontier See Figure 7.3 FIGURE 7-3 Neutral Technical Progress

23 Conclusion All technical progress reduces the amount of L and K required to produce any given output, shifts the production frontier outward, and tends to increase the nation’s welfare. Hicksian neutral technical progress increases the productivity of L and K in the same proportion and has the same effect on the nation’s PPF at balanced factor growth. As a result, K/L remains unchanged at constant relative factor prices (w/r). L- saving technical progress increases the productivity of K proportionately more than the productivity of L. As a result, K is substituted for L in production so that K/L rises at unchanged w/r. K-saving technical progress is the opposite of L-saving technical progress. Case study 7-1 and 7-2 (page 206=208): the change over time in relative factor endowment in various countries and regions.

24 7.4 Growth and Trade: The Small-Country Case The Effect of Growth on Trade Illustration of Factor Growth, Trade, and Welfare Technical Progress, Trade, and Welfare Conclusion

25 The Effect of Growth on Trade Small-country Case It means the country is too small to affect the relative commodity prices at which it trades (price-taker) PPF Change and International Trade Factor growth and technical progress result in an outward shift of a nation’s PPF. How about the change of consumption, trade volume and national welfare? Here, the analysis has two different situation: small-country case and large-country case.

26 The Effect of Growth on Trade Factor Growth and Technical Progress and International Trade The volume of trade depends on the rates at which the output of the nation’s exportable and importable commodities grow and on the consumption pattern of the nation as its national income expands through growth and trade.  Protrade( 正向 ), Antitrade ( 负向 )and Neutral Trade( 中性 ) Protrade: If the output of the nation’s exportable commodity grows proportionately more than the output of its importable commodity at constant relative commodity prices, the growth tends to lead to greater than proportionate expansion of trade; Antitrade: If the expansion of output leads to the lower rate of expansion of trade; Neutral Trade: If the expansion of output leads to the same rate of expansion of trade

27 The Effect of Growth on Trade  Production can be Protrade( 正向 ), Antitrade ( 负向 )and Neutral Trade( 中性 ) Protrade: If the output of the nation’s exportable commodity increases proportionately more than the output of its importable commodity at constant relative commodity prices; Antitrade: If the output of the nation’s exportable commodity increases proportionately less than the output of its importable commodity at constant relative commodity prices; Neutral Trade: If the output of the nation’s exportable commodity increase proportionately same with the output of its importable commodity at constant relative commodity prices

28 The Effect of Growth on Trade  Consumption can be Protrade( 正向 ), Antitrade ( 负 向 )and Neutral Trade( 中性 ) Protrade: If the output of the nation’s importable commodity increases proportionately more than the output of its exportable commodity at constant relative commodity prices; Antitrade: If the output of the nation’s importable commodity increases proportionately less than the output of its exportable commodity at constant relative commodity prices; Neutral Trade: If the output of the nation’s importable commodity increases proportionately same with the output of its exportable commodity at constant relative commodity prices

29 The Effect of Growth on Trade Conclusion Since growth can result from different types and rates of factor growth and technical progress, and production and consumption can be protrade, antitrade, or neutral, the effect of growth on trade and welfare will vary from case to case. In a word, with the growth the volume of trade depends on the net effect of the production effect and consumption effect.

30 Illustration of Factor Growth, Trade, and Welfare Figure 7.4 (page 210)  Top panel It shows that after L doubles, Nation 1 exchanges 150X for 150Y at P M =P B =1 (Constant prices with growth). With both production (the output of commodity X increased while the output of commodity Y declined) and consumption (the consumption of commodity Y increased proportionately more than the consumption of commodity X) protrade, the volume of trade expanded proportionately more than the output of commodity X.  Bottom panel It shows that with free trade before growth, Nation 1 exchanged 60X for 60Y at P X =P Y =P B =1. With free trade after growth, Nation 1 exchanges 150X for 150Y at P X /P Y =P B =1.

31 Top Panel of Figure 7.4 FIGURE 7-4 Factor Growth and Trade: The Small-Country Case

32 Bottom Panel FIGURE 7-4 (continued)

33 Illustration of Factor Growth, Trade, and Welfare  Explanation 1. Top panel: the fact that consumption of both commodities increased with growth and trade means that both commodities are normal goods. If commodity Y had been an inferior good would Nation 1 have consumed a smaller absolute amount of Y (at point E’); If commodity X had been an inferior good would Nation 1 have consumed a smaller absolute amount of X ( at point E’’) 2. Bottom panel: the offer curves to show the same growth of trade for Nation 1 at constant terms of trade. The straight line showing the constant terms of trade also represents the straight-line segment of Nation 2’s offer curve ( or the rest of the world) since Nation 1 is small country.

34 Illustration of Factor Growth, Trade, and Welfare  Conclusion Nation 1 is worse off after growth because its labor force doubled while its total consumption less than doubled. 1. Before growth: point E with 70X and 80Y 2. After growth: Point Z with 120X and 160Y Therefore, the consumption and welfare of Nation 1’s citizen decline as a result of this type of growth.

35 Technical Progress, Trade, and Welfare Neutral technical progress at the same rate in the production of both commodities leads to a proportionate expansion in the output of both commodities at constant relative commodity prices  Neutral expansion of production and consumption leads to the same rate of expansion of trade  With neutral production and protrade consumption, the volume of trade would expand proportionately more than production  With neutral production and antitrade consumption, the volume of trade would expand proportionately less than production  The welfare of the nation will increase with constant L and population and constant terms of trade

36 Technical Progress, Trade, and Welfare Neutral technical progress in the production of the exportable commodity only is protrade The volume of trade will expand and the welfare rises with a constant population and labor force. Neutral technical progress only in the production of commodity Y is antitrade The volume of trade will tends to decline, but national welfare increases. Case Study 7-3 (page 213)

37 Conclusion Production and consumption can be protrade, antitrade, or neutral Production is protrade if the output of the nation’s exportable commodity increases proportionately more than the output of its importable commodity. Consumption is protrade if the nation’s consumption of its importable commodity increases proportionately more than consumption of its exportable commodity. Volume of trade It depends on the net result of the production and consumption. Social welfare The increases of the total consumption of the nation is proportionate with the factor growth and technical progress or not.

38 7.5 Growth and Trade: The Large-Country Case Growth and the Nation’s Terms of Trade and Welfare Immiserizing Growth Illustration of Beneficial Growth and Trade Conclusion

39 Growth and the Nation ’ s Terms of Trade and Welfare Large Country It means that the country is sufficiently large enough to affect the relative commodity prices at which it trades, so its terms of trade also change). Growth and the Nation’s Terms of Trade and Welfare  Terms of trade effect growth Growth expands the nation’s volume of trade at constant prices, its terms of trade tend to deteriorate; Growth reduces the nation’s volume of trade at constant prices, its terms of trade tend to improve

40 Growth and the Nation ’ s Terms of Trade and Welfare  Wealth effect The effect of growth on the nation’s welfare depends on the net result of the terms of trade effect and a wealth effect. Wealth effect: It refers to the change in the output per worker or per person as a result of growth— Positive wealth effect and Negative wealth effect. 1. Positive wealth effect: it tends to increase the nation’s welfare; 2. Negative wealth effect: it tends to decline or remain unchanged.

41 Growth and the Nation ’ s Terms of Trade and Welfare  Nation’s Welfare 1. If the wealth effect is positive and the nation’s terms of trade improve as a result of growth and trade, the nation’s welfare will definitely increase; 2. If both of the wealth and the terms of trade are unfavorable as a result of growth and trade, the nation’s welfare will definitely decline; 3. If the wealth and the terms of trade effect move in opposite directions, the nation’s welfare may deteriorate, improve, or remain unchanged depending on the relative strength of these two opposing forces. Illustration of Growth and Trade: The Large- Country Case Figure 7.5 (page 215)

42 Growth and the Nation ’ s Terms of Trade and Welfare FIGURE 7-5 Growth and Trade: The Large-Country Case (Figure continues on next slide)

43 Growth and the Nation ’ s Terms of Trade and Welfare FIGURE 7-5 Growth and Trade: The Large-Country Case

44 Growth and the Nation ’ s Terms of Trade and Welfare Explanation of Figure 7.5 (page 215)  Nation 1 is assumed to be large enough to affect the terms of trade;  With growth and trade, Nation 1’s terms of trade deteriorates from PB=PM=1 (constant prices) to PN=1/2(export 140X for 70 Y), the indifference curve Ⅳ ;  Since curve Ⅳ is lower than curve Ⅶ, the nation’s welfare will decline even more now;  The bottom shows with offer curves the effect of this types of growth on the volume of trade, the terms of trade when Nation 1 affects its terms of trade and when it does not.

45 Immiserizing Growth Immiserizing growth is termed by Jagdish Bhagwati. It means that even if the wealth effect itself tends to increase the nation’s welfare, the terms of trade may deteriorate so much as to lead to a net decline in the nation’s welfare. Illustration of Figure 7.6  The wealth effect, by itself, would increase Nation 1’s welfare at constant prices because Nation 1’s output increases while its labor force (L) and population remain constant;  The technical progress tends to increase the volume of trade, Nation 1’s terms of trade tend to deteriorate (See Figure 7.6)

46 Immiserizing Growth FIGURE 7-6 Immiserizing Growth.

47 Immiserizing Growth Explanation of Figure 7.6  The terms of trade deterioration (from PB=1 to PC=1/5)  The nation’s welfare decline (from higher curve Ⅲ to lower curve Ⅱ ) The Situation of Immiserizing Growth occurrence  Growth tends to increase substantially Nation 1’s exports at constant terms of trade;  Nation 1 is so large that the attempt to expand its exports substantially will cause a deterioration in its terms of trade;  The income elasticity of Nation 2’s demand for Nation 1’s exports is very low, so Nation 1’s terms of trade will deteriorate substantially  Nation 1 is so heavily dependent on trade that a substantial deterioration in its terms of trade will lead to a reduction in national welfare

48 Illustration of Beneficial Growth and Trade Growth that improve nation 1’s terms of trade and welfare  If K ( nation 1’s scarce factor) doubled in Nation 1, the wealth effect, by itself, tends to increase the nation’s welfare,;  This type of growth tends to reduce the volume of trade at constant prices, Nation 1’s terms of trade tend to improve;  With both the wealth and terms of trade effects favorable, Nation 1’s welfare definitely improves. See Figure 7.7 (page 217)

49 Illustration of Beneficial Growth and Trade Illustration of Figure 7.7(Top Panel) (Figure continues on next slide) FIGURE 7-7 Growth That Improves Nation 1’s Terms of Trade and Welfare

50 Illustration of Beneficial Growth and Trade Illustration of Figure 7.7 (Bottom Panel) FIGURE 7-7 (continued)

51 Illustration of Beneficial Growth and Trade Explanation of Figure 7.7  Top panel: If K doubled in Nation 1, production would take place at point R at the unchanged terms of trade of P R =P B =1. Nation 1 would exchange 15X for 15Y with Nation 2 and consume at point U on indifference curve Ⅴ ; If Nation 1 is large, its terms of trade will improve because it is willing to export less of X at P R =P B =1. At PS=2, Nation 1 produces at point S, exchanges 20X for 40Y with Nation 2, and consumes at point W on indifference curve Ⅵ. Nation 1’s welfare increases because of both a favorable wealth and terms of trade effect.  Bottom panel: it shows with offer curves the effect of this type of growth on the volume and the terms of trade when Nation 1 does not and when does affect its terms of trade.

52 Conclusion If growth, regardless of its source and type, increases the nation’s volume of trade at constant prices, the nation’s terms of trade tend to deteriorate. Otherwise, the nation’s terms of trade tend to remain unchanged or improve. The effect of growth on the nation’s welfare also depends on a wealth effect. This refers to the change in output per worker or per person as a result of growth. If both the terms of trade and wealth effects of growth are favorable, the nation’s welfare will definitely improve. Otherwise, it will remain the same or decline, depending on the net result of these two effects. The case where an unfavorable terms of trade effect overwhelms even a favorable wealth effect and leads to a decline in the nation’s welfare is known as “immiserizing growth”.

53 7.6 Growth, Change in Tastes, and Trade in Both Nations Introduction Growth and Trade in Both Nations Change in Tastes and Trade in Both Nations Conclusion

54 Introduction Up to now, we have assumed that growth took place only in Nation 1. As a result, only Nation 1’s PPF and offer curve shifted Now the analysis incorporates growth in both nations  PPF and offer curves of both nations shift;  To use offer curves to analyze the effect of growth and change in tastes (this is different from previous topics) in both nations

55 Growth and Trade in Both Nations Growth and Trade in Both Nations (Figure 7.8) FIGURE 7-8 Growth and Trade in Both Nations

56 Growth and Trade in Both Nations Explanation of Figure 7.8  Both nations are large enough to affect the terms of trade;  With the original pregrowth offer curves 1 and 2, Nation 1 exchanges 60X for 60Y with Nation 2 at PB=1 (point E 1 );  If L doubles in Nation 1, its offer curve rotates clockwise ( 顺时 针 ) from 1 to 1 ﹡ and Nation 1 exports 140X for 70Y (point E 2 ), the terms of trade deteriorate to ½ while Nation 2 terms of trade improve to 2;  If growth occurs only in Nation 2 and its offer curve rotates counterclockwise ( 逆时针 ) from 2 to 2 ﹡ and Nation 2 exports 140Y for 70X (point E 3 )with Nation 1, the terms of trade deteriorate to ½ while Nation 1 terms of trade improve to 2;  With growth in both nations and offer curves 1 ﹡ and 2 ﹡,new equilibrium point E 4, the volume of trade expands to 140X for 140Y, the terms of trade remain at 1 in both nations;

57 Growth and Trade in Both Nations Conclusion With balanced growth or neutral technical progress in the production of both commodities in both nations, both nation’s offer curves will shift outward and move closer to the axis measuring the nation’s exportable commodity. In that case, the volume of trade will expand and the terms of trade can remain unchanged or improve for one nation and deteriorate for the other, depending on the shape of each nation offer curve and on the degree by which each offer curve rotates.

58 Change in Tastes and Trade in Both Nations Introduction In fact through time the economic growth not only affects the nation’s PPF and also affects the nation’s tastes. In other word, growth has an impact on the nation’s offer curve and the change in tastes also has an impact on the nation’s offer curve. Change in tastes and trade in both nations See Figure 7.8  If Nation 1’s desire for commodity Y increases, Nation 1’s terms of trade deteriorate;  If Nation 2’s desire for commodity X increases, Nation 2’s terms of trade improve.

59 Change in Tastes and Trade in Both Nations Figure 7.8 FIGURE 7-8 Growth and Trade in Both Nations

60 Change in Tastes and Trade in Both Nations Explanation  If Nation 1’ desire for commodity Y increases, Nation 1 will be willing to accept less of commodity Y for a given amount of commodity X that it exports. Nation 1’s offer curve rotates clockwise from 1 to 1 ﹡, causing an increase in the volume of trade but a decline in Nation 1’s terms of trade.  If Nation 2’ desire for commodity X increases, Nation 2 will be willing to accept less of commodity X for a given amount of commodity Y that it exports. Nation 2’s offer curve rotates counterclockwise from 2 to 2 ﹡, causing an increase in the volume of trade but a decline in Nation 2’s terms of trade.

61 Conclusion With growth and /or a change in tastes in both nations, both nations’ offer curves will shift, changing the volume and /or the terms of trade. Regardless of its source, a shift in a nation’s offer curve toward the axis measuring its exportable commodity tends to expand trade at constant prices and reduce the nation’s terms of trade. Opposite shifts in the nation’s offer curve tend to reduce the volume of trade at constant prices and improve the nation’s terms of trade. For a given shift in its offer curve, the nation’s terms of trade will change more the greater the curvature is of its trade partner’s offer curve. Case Study 7-4 (page 221), 7-5 (page 222)

62 Chapter Summary In the long run, growth in factor endowments will influence a nation’s PPF The nation’s PPF will shift outward. In the long run, growth in technical progress will influence a nation’s PPF The nation’s PPF will shift outward. With the growth of factor endowments and technical progress, how about the effect of growth on trade volume and welfare (large and small country cases)  Small country case: Trade volume increases while social welfare declines  Large country case: Trade volume increases while terms of trade will deteriorate and social welfare will decline.

63 Chapter Summary In the long run, the change in tastes will influence a nation’s PPF, how about the effect of this change on trade volume and terms of trade  A shift in a nation’s offer curve toward the axis measuring its exportable commodity tends to expand trade at constant prices and reduce the nation’s terms of trade;  The opposite shifts in the nation’s offer curve tend to reduce the volume of trade at constant prices and improve the nation’s terms of trade

64 Exercises Discussion Problems: Page 225 to 226 from 1 to 14 questions

65 Exercises Additional Reading Important papers on the topics of growth, trade, and welfare are:  T.M.Rybczynski, “Factor Endowments and Relative Commodity Prices,” Economica, November 1955, pp  J.N. Bhagwati, “ Immiserizing Growth,” Review of Economic Studies, June 1958, pp  B.Balassa, “ The Changing Pattern of Comparative Advantage in Manufactured Goods.” Review of Economics and Statistics, May 1979, pp  G.M.Grossman and E.Helpman, “ Trade, Innovation, and Growth,” American Economic Review, May 1990, pp  G.M.Grossman and E.Helpman,”Comparative Advantage and Long-Run Growth,” American Economic Review, September 1990, pp

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