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“Future Directions for Hydrogen Energy Research and Education”

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Presentation on theme: "“Future Directions for Hydrogen Energy Research and Education”"— Presentation transcript:

1 “Future Directions for Hydrogen Energy Research and Education”

2 Outline u Premises u Air Quality u Energy u Climate u Hydrogen Challenges u Research, Development and Demonstration Needs u Potential Commercialization Drivers

3 Fundamental Premises u Managing our carbon cycle represents the single greatest challenge to the next 3 generations u The pace of oil and natural gas resource depletion and climate change are accelerating faster than the rate of viable sustainable strategies u There is an unprecedented need for the NSF to help develop precise tools and strategies to address these issues

4 The Need to Diversify our Energy Economy Stems from Several Long Term Challenges: u Attain & Maintain Air Quality Standards u Abrupt or Profound Climate Change u Oil resource depletion u Toxic air pollution concerns (especially diesel) u Growth in fuel use u Population, VMT & economic growth u Oil & Auto “Supra-national” Corp. R & D priorities u Growing geopolitical instability

5 Fundamental Global Carbon Trends: u Global Population Grows by 100 MM /yr u 79 MM Bls / day of oil Consumed in 2003 u 32 MM Bls / day of oil Discovered in 2003 u The Atmosphere is 12 Miles Thick u 8 Billion Tons of CO 2 accumulate per year – 6.5 B from fossil fuels B from deforestation u 3.2 B tons of CO 2 is unbuffered and remains in the atmosphere u It took 100 million years to accumulate biomass for petroleum u It may take only 200 years to deplete it…

6 The Perfect Storm ? Air Quality OPEC Imports Climate Change Market Power Energy Diversity Refinery Capacity

7 AIR QUALITY CONCERNS

8 Model Estimated Risk Excluding Diesel Sources

9 Model Estimated Risk From All Emission Sources

10 Diesel Exposure Also Tracks Cancer Risk & Poverty…

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12 ENERGY CONCERNS

13 Underlying Energy Issues u Historic high demand for gasoline, diesel, & NG u Tight supplies of oil, NG & electricity generation u Expected growth in international demand u Declining fleet fuel economy u Increasing demand for higher vehicle weight & power u Reduced production margins for petroleum fuels, NG and electricity u Reduced storage inventories of petroleum fuels and NG

14 Underlying Energy Issues (cont.) u Reduced availability of hydro-electric generation u US energy costs near all-time highs for NG & oil u Increased market concentration of major oil co’s. u Increased importance of commodity market traders u Lack of integrated state and national energy policy to foster: – transportation fuel diversity, – energy efficiency – Low and zero carbon fuel commercialization – Viable pathways for solar, renewable alcohol, hydrogen and fuel cell technology pathways

15 How Have We Used our Energy Technology “Bounty”? % Change, % 19% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% Fuel Economy Horsepower Acceleration Weight

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18 Market Structure of Oil Majors is also Relevant to Alternative Fuel Development Mergers between u Exxon + Mobil u Chevron + Texaco u BP + Amoco + ARCO u Conoco + Phillips u Total + Petrofina + Elf Why? Three-year Average Ratio of Reserve Replacement for these 5: – % – %

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20 Motor Vehicle Use Increases Proportionate to Income GDP per capita (‘95 USD), 1970 to 1996 Motor Vehicles per 1,000, 1970 & 1996 China Japan Korea India Brazil Thailand USA

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22 North American Natural Gas Reserves < 10 years source: BP Statistical Review of World Oil, years

23 Tracking Carbon Intensities is Needed California And Selected Countries Source: Draft Greenhouse Gas Inventory Update, California Energy Commission, 2001

24 Climate Concerns

25 “The most important graph in the history of science.” Carl Sagan

26 Global warming from 1861 to 1994 average globe temperature, IPCC

27 Hotter Days Lead To Higher Emissions And More Smog Source: Air Resources Board, 2000 Ozone (ppm) Temperature ( o F) ) Los Angeles Ozone Levels ( ) California Ozone Standard Source: California Environmental Protection Agency

28 Kosa (“Yellow Sand”) in Asia April 1, 1998

29 Asian Dust in North America April 28, 1998

30 Asian Dust over the Caribbean Sea SEAWifs April 2001 NRL Monterey

31 Hydrogen Challenges

32 What Will “Drive” Energy Diversification with Respect to Hydrogen: u Exploration & Production Costs for Oil & Natural Gas u Vehicle Capital Costs – conventional vs AFV’s u Infrastructure Storage Distribution and Dispensing Costs u Reforming and Electrolyzer Efficiencies u Diesel Competition u Relative Upstream & Downstream Efficiencies u Aggregate Well to Wheels Efficiency u Viable H2 Production, Storage, Dispensing & O-B storage u System-wide Carbon-equivalent Reduction Effectiveness u Marketability of CO2 reduction credits u Future Oil and Gas Price Expectations u Current R D & D Benchmarks

33 Commercialization Risk and Technological Maturity Commercialization Threshold Proof of Concept Lab Prototype Development Prototype Demonstration Prototype Commercial Scale Demonstration Pilot Production Demonstration Pilot Production Development Mass Market Commercialization Large Volume Production & Demonstration Full-Scale Production Verification Time CNG H2 FCV’s Gasoline P-ZEV’s Hybrid P-ZEV’s Viable H2 storage, PEM membranes & efficient electrolysis

34 Science Breakthroughs Needed: u 150,000 + mile durable PEM membranes u H2 handling equivalent to retail liquid fuels: – Bulk & On-Board Storage – Transport – Hybrid-equivalent range u 5-10 x improvement in electrolyzer efficiencies u Competitive first cost ALL OF THESE NEEDED SIMULTANEOUSLY !

35 Research, Development and Demonstration Conundrums: Deployment History as of 2004

36 Some Lessons Learned from R D & D u There are always more stages of testing needed to compete with fully mature conventional technology u The competitive benchmarks keep getting tougher u Simultaneous achievement of several challenging benchmarks (such as recharge time, first cost, energy density, power density and battery cycle life) can plague a technology’s development for decades. u Technology push ≠ demand pull u The most important synergies are often unplanned and unexpected

37 Technology Synergies: u Batteries for BEV’s & Hybrids u Electric Motors / Controllers for FC’s u Fuel Reforming / Catalyst Formulations u 42 Volt Electronics for Gasoline u Zero Emission Evaporative Systems u Enhanced Fuel Economy u Production Engineering Cost Reductions

38 10 Meaningful RD & D Outcomes: 1) Gain non-OEM user experience to identify durability and reliability issues 2) Obtain up-to-date benchmarking data to better understand the status of a particular technology in a specific duty cycle or use environment. 3) Incentive for OEM’s to take a small step toward commercialization 4) Help concentrate engineering resources on key component development and testing 5) Provide user feedback unattainable in OEM test track environments

39 Meaningful R D & D Outcomes (cont.) 6) Identify “soft” barriers like consumer understanding and anxiety 7) Reinforce non-petroleum fuel technology development at a time of very low conventional fuel prices. 8) Foster technology “fluency” or “literacy” by keeping key researchers active in the field (like Richard Pefley, Tom Gage, Alan Cocconi, et. al.) 9) Spin-off of technology components for future generation technology. 10) Keep competitive pressure on other technologies.

40 Many feedstocks and production technologies provide pathways to hydrogen. LH2 truck Central Reformer Liquefier cH2 truck cH2 pipeline Compressor Local Reformer Compressor Local Electrolyzer Compressor Coal Combustion Power Plant Biomass, Cellulose, Algae, Starch Crops Gasifier Purification LH2 truck cH2 truck cH2 pipeline Natural Gas Local Reformer Compressor Alcohols Hydrolysis Fermentation Digestion Reforming Purification cH2 - Compressed Hydrogen MSR Solar, Wind Geothermal, Nuclear, Hydro, Others. electricity Methanol Gasoline, Naphtha Petroleum Refinery Power Plant

41 Hybrids – The New Benchmark…

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45 NGV’s Could be a Bridge to H2… u Both gaseous fuels u Majority of H2 from NG u ICE’s capable of operating on H2 / CNG blends u H / CNG blends reduce NOx & Increase Efficiency & HP if engineered correctly (e.g., Cummins Westport) u Co-Deployment cost synergies u High volume HD ICE niches targetable

46 Conclusions u Concerns over oil use and climate promoting interest in “paradigm shift” u Many options, but now only 0.3% of new sales u Hybrids building credible momentum u Advocates searching for policy drivers--large federal tax credits appear likely u No guarantees--should pursue multiple paths

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