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Resilience and Change in Arctic Terrestrial Ecosystems: A Key Role in the Arctic System Terry Chapin University of Alaska Fairbanks
Chapin and Whiteman 1998
Rapid Climatic Change Mark Serreze, John Walsh
1949 Chandler River, 50 miles S. of Umiat: Sturm, Racine and Tape: Fifty Years of Change in Arctic Alaskan Shrub Abundance Shrub density has increased Matthew Sturm
Indigenous observations suggests that shrub expansion is widespread in the North American Arctic
Gunderson and Holling 2002 No resilience Complete resilience Complete instability The real world
Is the Arctic a fragile system? Somewhat!
What are the triggers for major changes? What are the limits to resilience?
Chapin and Whiteman 1998
Thawing of Permafrost
Hinzman Hydrology is changing
Discharge is increasing in major Euroasian rivers these 6 rivers account for half of river flux to the Arctic Ocean Peterson et al.
1949 Chandler River, 50 miles S. of Umiat: Sturm, Racine and Tape: Fifty Years of Change in Arctic Alaskan Shrub Abundance Vegetation is changing Matthew Sturm
Vegetation change warms the local climate
Model simulations suggest warmer summers Following vegetation change Chapin, Lynch et al.
Arctic Summer Warming Trends
Area burned in W. North America has doubled in last 20 years Kasischki
Species effects on climate in boreal forest Baldocchi et al. 2000
The Earth System is Changing What can we do?
Identify problems and opportunities Mitigate Adapt
Regional problems and opportunities (examples) Problems –Permafrost thaw –Increased fire –Changing economy –Changing institutions –Globally diverse problems Opportunities –Identify critical areas –Mitigate regional warming? –New options available –Fresh look for solutions –More options for solutions
University of Alaska’s Integrative Graduate Education and Research Traineeship Program (IGERT) Terry Chapin and Gary Kofinas Regional Resilience and Adaptation
Focal issue of program How can we build a sustainable future, if the global environment is directionally changing ecologically, economically, politically, and culturally?
Our underlying philosophy Solutions to regional problems must be –Ecologically, economically, socially, and culturally sustainable –Must treat region as a system with an integrated set of variables
2002’s entering group 15 Graduate Students 8 Biology 4 Anthropology 1 Resource Mngt. 2 Interdisciplinary 50% AK residents 30% minority students
The Changing Terrestrial Arctic Terry Chapin. Polar regions are the cooling system for Planet Earth.
Arctic Climate Change: Where Reality Exceeds Expectations Mark C. Serreze National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) Cooperative Institute for Research.
STUDI Land Surface Change & Arctic Land Warming Department of Geography Jianmin Wang The Ohio State University 04/06/
Resilience of Alaska’s boreal forest Terry Chapin Bonanza Creek LTER.
Class 15b: Global climate change. Greenhouse effect Natural warming effect.
Tuesday, 17 January 2006 Synthesis of Arctic System Science Projects Online Meeting.
Climate Change Impacts in the United States Third National Climate Assessment [Name] [Date] Alaska.
Scott Goetz Changes in Productivity with Climate Change at High Latitudes: the role of Disturbance.
Boreal forest resilience Some initial thoughts BNZ LTER meeting, March 2009 Terry Chapin & Jill Johnstone.
Vegetation Shift in the Pan-Arctic Tilmann Silber & Daniel Angst Topics in Ecosystem Ecology FS2009.
Habitat Diversity What is the link between Evolution & Adaptation, & the diversity of Habitats found on Earth?
Northern Ecohydrology Jessica M. Cable and W. Robert Bolton International Arctic Research Center (Fairbanks) Environment and Natural Resources Institute.
SEARCH Understanding Change: Priorities and Needs Matt Berman, John Walsh SEARCH Science Steering Committee Meeting, Arlington, VA 28 October 2008.
A Synthesis of Terrestrial Carbon Balance of Alaska and Projected Changes in the 21 st Century: Implications for Climate Policy and Carbon Management To.
Marine Ecosystem Sustainability IGERT : Interdisciplinary Graduate Education in Alaska L.M. Divine 1 and G.L. Eckert 2 1 School of Fisheries and Ocean.
Fig Global Climate Patterns Regions of the globe can also be characterized by their abiotic conditions (e.g., climate)
Overview of Proposed Climate Sensitivity Research.
Summary of Research on Climate Change Feedbacks in the Arctic Erica Betts April 01, 2008.
The Tundra Carbon Balance - some recent results with LPJ-GUESS contributions Paul Miller Ben Smith, Martin Sykes, Torben Christensen, Arnaud Heroult, Almut.
State of BNZ LTER Education and Outreach Elena Bautista Sparrow School of Natural Resources and Agricultural Sciences, International Arctic Research Center.
How are warmer temperatures in the Arctic tundra impacting migratory songbirds who go there to breed? Guest Scientist: Natalie Boelman Earth2Class Workshops.
An Overview of North Slope Hydrology and Potential Response to Climate Change Presented by: Amy Tidwell, PhD Water and Environmental Research Center University.
Wetland Drying and Wildlife Brad Griffith & Jennifer Roach U.S. Geological Survey and University of Alaska Fairbanks Photo by May-Le Ng.
Water as a Social Process Lilian Alessa, Ph.D.,P.Reg.Biol. Resilience and Adaptive Management Group, Water and Environmental Research Center, University.
Boreal Forest and Fire. sq. mi.sq. km. Boreal Forests Other Forests
SEARCH Understanding Change Panel: Priority Needs and Implementation Status Matt Berman John Walsh Nov. 5, 2007 Charge to panel: Plan the data analysis,
How Will Climate Change Affect Trophic Processes and Productivity in Freshwater-Riparian Ecosystems? Mark S. Wipfli USGS Cooperative Fish and Wildlife.
The influence of climate change on forest ungulates: the paradox of "restoring" novel ecosystems Thomas P. Rooney tinyurl.com/ProfRooney.
Run-Timing Changes and Resilience in Auke Creek Salmon David Tallmon 1,2,3 & Ryan Kovach 2,4 1 Biology and Marine Biology Program (UAS) 2 Institute of.
The Changing State of Arctic Sea Ice The Changing State of Arctic Sea Ice James E. Overland and John Calder, NOAA, USA December 7, 2009.
Adaptive cycle and Panarchy. Gunderson & Holling 2002 Adaptive cycle of recovery (succession) after disturbance r=growth (pioneer; stand initiation) K=carrying.
Research and Monitoring of Ecosystems and Biodiversity in the Arctic: What has been done, and what does it matter? Hannele Savela Thule Institute, University.
Social Science Perspectives on Ecosystem Services Reflections on Phase III with an Outlook to Phase IV Matt Berman Alaska EPSCoR All Hands Meeting Fairbanks,
Carbon Cycle and Ecosystems Important Concerns: Potential greenhouse warming (CO 2, CH 4 ) and ecosystem interactions with climate Carbon management (e.g.,
Climate Sensitivity Succession Regime Shifts Integration Current Proposal: The Dynamics of Change Next Proposal (due in < 4 years!!) Human Dimensions K-12.
National Aeronautics and Space Administration Jet Propulsion Laboratory California Institute of Technology JPL Proprietary Information Charles Miller,
Human Dimensions of the Arctic System (HARC) Synthesis Workshop Implications for SEARCH 5 October 2007 Alexandria, Virginia.
A. SATHY NAIDU Institute of Marine Science University of Alaska Fairbanks CLIMATE CHANGE EFFECTS ON THE ALASKAN COASTAL ENVIRONMENT AND COMPARABLE ASPECTS.
More on effects Bruce A. McCarl Distinguished Professor of Agricultural Economics Texas A&M University
Life: levels of organization – organism (individuals): any form of life – population: a group of interacting individuals of same species – community: populations.
INTEGRATED ARCTIC MANAGEMENT Brendan P. Kelly Assistant Director for Polar Sciences Office of Science and Technology Policy
Hydro-Thermo Dynamic Model: HTDM-1.0 S. Marchenko & V. Romanovsky Geophysical Institute, University of Alaska Fairbanks International Arctic Research Center.
LTER Education Outreach Elena Bautista Sparrow School of Natural Resources and Agricultural Sciences, International Arctic Research Center and The Center.
Impacts of Acute Warming on Arctic Flora and Fauna Dr. Natalie Boelman Earth2Class Workshops for Teachers 11 January 2014.
Welcome Global Water Trends Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (2005) Water withdrawals from rivers and lakes doubled since 1960; most water use (70% worldwide)
VuRSAL Scoping Study. Background NASA’s 2008 ROSES Solicitation (NNH08ZDA001N-TE) called for proposals to carry out “Scoping studies to identify the scientific.
Climate Change and its impact on Forests in Europe and North America Andrew J. R. Gillespie, Ph. D. United States Environmental Protection Agency.
Understanding the Impacts of Climate Change on the United States Dr. Virginia Burkett USGS Chief Scientist for Global Change Research U.S. Department of.
What is Human Dimensions Research? A clear design for investigation of the interactions and feedbacks among the human and the biophysical components of.
Update: June 2013 Cooperative Institute For Alaska Research (CIFAR)
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