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Resilience and Change in Arctic Terrestrial Ecosystems: A Key Role in the Arctic System Terry Chapin University of Alaska Fairbanks.

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Presentation on theme: "Resilience and Change in Arctic Terrestrial Ecosystems: A Key Role in the Arctic System Terry Chapin University of Alaska Fairbanks."— Presentation transcript:

1 Resilience and Change in Arctic Terrestrial Ecosystems: A Key Role in the Arctic System Terry Chapin University of Alaska Fairbanks

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3 Chapin and Whiteman 1998

4 Rapid Climatic Change Mark Serreze, John Walsh

5 Andrea Lloyd

6 1949 Chandler River, 50 miles S. of Umiat: Sturm, Racine and Tape: Fifty Years of Change in Arctic Alaskan Shrub Abundance Shrub density has increased Matthew Sturm

7 Indigenous observations suggests that shrub expansion is widespread in the North American Arctic

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9 Gunderson and Holling 2002 No resilience Complete resilience Complete instability The real world

10 Is the Arctic a fragile system? Somewhat!

11 What are the triggers for major changes? What are the limits to resilience?

12 Chapin and Whiteman 1998

13 Thawing of Permafrost

14 Hinzman Hydrology is changing

15 Discharge is increasing in major Euroasian rivers these 6 rivers account for half of river flux to the Arctic Ocean Peterson et al.

16 1949 Chandler River, 50 miles S. of Umiat: Sturm, Racine and Tape: Fifty Years of Change in Arctic Alaskan Shrub Abundance Vegetation is changing Matthew Sturm

17 Vegetation change warms the local climate

18 Model simulations suggest warmer summers Following vegetation change Chapin, Lynch et al.

19 Arctic Summer Warming Trends

20 Area burned in W. North America has doubled in last 20 years Kasischki

21 Species effects on climate in boreal forest Baldocchi et al. 2000

22 The Earth System is Changing What can we do?

23 Identify problems and opportunities Mitigate Adapt

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25 Global problems

26 Regional problems and opportunities (examples) Problems –Permafrost thaw –Increased fire –Changing economy –Changing institutions –Globally diverse problems Opportunities –Identify critical areas –Mitigate regional warming? –New options available –Fresh look for solutions –More options for solutions

27 University of Alaska’s Integrative Graduate Education and Research Traineeship Program (IGERT) Terry Chapin and Gary Kofinas Regional Resilience and Adaptation

28 Focal issue of program How can we build a sustainable future, if the global environment is directionally changing ecologically, economically, politically, and culturally?

29 Our underlying philosophy Solutions to regional problems must be –Ecologically, economically, socially, and culturally sustainable –Must treat region as a system with an integrated set of variables

30 2002’s entering group 15 Graduate Students 8 Biology 4 Anthropology 1 Resource Mngt. 2 Interdisciplinary 50% AK residents 30% minority students


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