Catégories Forecast How to define the categories? –Number –Categories Limits –Needs of user? How to evaluate the forecasted probabilities for each category? –Frequency/Probability, Climatological Probabilities, Conditionnal probabilities, Confidence Indice –Statistical Models –Numerical Models How to transform the forecast in « readable and comprehensive » form for the user?
Seasonnal Forecasting Process in Africa - RCOF (1) Dissemination –Dissemination of products by the NMHS, and interpretation to the benefit of users including national adaptation of regional products. Update of the forecasts (Monthly base) : –Continuous adaptation of the forecasts to the last available information on the climate system and its evolutions (notably update of the SST). Evaluation of Forecasts : –Quality of rainfall forecasts (technical evaluation) and use of the Forecasts (Users’ point of view evaluation – interest and value).