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Water, Energy, Food Nexus: A Perspective Through Eyes of Water Policy Johannesburg, April 20, 2012 by Dr. Jerome Delli Priscoli Institute for Water Resources.

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Presentation on theme: "Water, Energy, Food Nexus: A Perspective Through Eyes of Water Policy Johannesburg, April 20, 2012 by Dr. Jerome Delli Priscoli Institute for Water Resources."— Presentation transcript:

1 Water, Energy, Food Nexus: A Perspective Through Eyes of Water Policy Johannesburg, April 20, 2012 by Dr. Jerome Delli Priscoli Institute for Water Resources US Army Corps of Engineers Governor World Water Council Editor in Chief Water Policy

2 e.g. Recent U.S. Intelligence Community Assessment During the next 10 years, many countries………….will experience water problems—shortages, poor water quality, or floods—that will risk instability and state failure, increase regional tensions, …………….Between now and 2040, fresh water availability will not keep up with demand absent more effective management of water resources. Water problems will hinder the ability of key countries to produce food and generate energy, posing a risk to global food markets and hobbling economic growth..( Global Water Security U.S. INTELLIGENCE COMMUNITY ASSESSMENT-ICA , 2 February 2012) Water Security and Social Stability: Worldwide Growing Concerns for Mega Nexus By 2050 $63 trillion in Global GDP could be at risk because of water stress IFPR in Tapping Water Markets, by Anderson, et. al., RFF Press,2012 p 159.

3 How to allocate and reallocate among the sector uses? Which sector has priority? Why?

4 Water - Energy - Food Linkages (Samples from World Economic Forum Initiative) Increase in energy demand by 40% using current system means increase of freshwater needs by 165% If the Ogallala Aquifer runs dry, more then $20 billion worth of food and fiber will vanish from the World's markets…. James Little Saving the Ogallala Aquifer, Scientific American 19, March Shale extraction, concentrated solar plants demand large increase freshwater use Replacing 5-6% of energy consumption with bio fuels could double water withdrawals for agriculture Water essential for all the core drivers of economic growth In U.S. 13 % electricity is to move, treat, and heat water. California’s water-related energy uses 19% of the state’s electricity, 30 percent of natural gas, and 88 billion gallons of diesel fuel/yr

5 UN Water 2007 With projected Population growing to 9 Billion – do we have enough water to feed ourselves?

6 1. Looking at WEF Mega Nexus through a Water Policy IWRM Lens Water is the constraint that forces choices; trade-offs – integrative “jump start” Trade-offs are choices among water uses; Patterns of uses are prioritized values: Patterns Change over time: Depend on: Socio- Economic Development Political Culture Geography (wet, dry, variability) Available techology Integrative Processes = Political Messages = Reallocations of Political Power Often defined as technical terms and political is left out BUT- Cannot achieve integration w/o political Processes to allocate water are means to achieve NEXUS integration/success: Politics – Markets – water banking -RBO’s - Infrastructure - Planning – Regulations – Defining Rights – trade – technology - others Logic of Water Org’s often not logic of legal Org’s: Finding the operational Nexus Region Specific Trade-offs Center of Allocations Debates Efficiencies - Accountability – Legitimacy Equity - Fairness Macro Social Values/Goals

7 Markets - Trading in South Australia During 6 year + drought Water use overall was cut back 70% agricultural production value dropped only 30% (WSJ, 2/28/12 A8) Interstate Compact Commission Interstate Commission for Potomac (ICPRB) 16 dams originally planned; actual 1 large and 1 minor dam by best use of non structural approaches & coordination of States through ICPRB; system yield up by 50% - in stream needs and quality vs. 45% with dams China: Increase of Irrigation Efficiencies 30 years 0 growth in Irrigation water use Increase effectiveness by 8 million hectares Increase grain yield by 50% ( Water Resources in China, MWR.www.waterpub.com.cn) History – Mega Nexus concerns not new to Water Policy Mega Nexus and Water Policy central to Growth of Civilizations E arly Humans adapted by moving as climate changed Technical Interventions allow Migratory to Sedentary Creativity and innovation Canals for irrigation – routes for boats and more trade th cen. Disease spurs Public Water Supply Systems

8 Political Cultural Drivers of Change Water Reforms most advanced where see Macro Economic reform open markets, less corruption, more participation water crises macro economic crises ( Mexico, India…) political restructuring (SA- human rights…) liberalization policies ( Chile, Brazil, China…) meeting EU standards (Spain, Poland, Hungary…) international lenders and donors

9 1808: Gallatin Report Waterways to be used for: Building Political Unity and Nation National Defense Economic Development 1824: GIBBONS VS. OGDEN (Estbl. Federal Powers vs. States) Claims are said to be repugnant– 1st. To that clause in the constitution which authorizes Congress to regulate commerce. 2d. To that which authorizes Congress to promote the progress of science and useful arts. Birth & Growth of the U.S. Water Ways & Establishment of National Federal Interventions Over Interstate Issues GibbonsOgdenMarshal 1920’s -“308” Reports: Congress Authorizes USACE do Comp. assessments of all major rivers of the US

10 , “a corporation clothed with the power of government but possessed of the flexibility and initiative of a private enterprise.” (FDR, 1933) TVA dams to harness the region’s rivers to control floods, improve navigation, and to generated electricity. Cross Subsidies – integrations of power production, navigation, flood control, malaria prevention, reforestation, or erosion control, agriculture productivity……. In 1 Generation TVA a Region Poverty to Prosperity “Power is really a secondary matter. What we are doing there is taking a watershed with about three and a half million people in it, almost all of them rural, and we are trying to make a different type of citizen out of them from what they would be under their present conditions.” (FDR, Press Conference, Warm Springs, Ga, November 23, 1934) But attempts for 7 more TVA’s fail: Hells Canyon Dam: Reasserts agriculture priority use Small hydro vs. large MOP States vs. Federal Gov No constituency for Regions or semi autonomous Regional Entities with comprehensive power for MOP

11 How do we approach the need for integration on such scale? DANGER: Political implications in Holistic Comprehensive Approaches Philosopher of Science Karl Popper (in 1944) cautions : “Holistic or Utopian social engineering….aims at reforming the whole of society in accordance with a definite plan… extending the power of the state…” “Piecemeal engineering …concerned with the whole…tries to achieve ideals by small adjustments and readjustments…to continually improve…” “Holistic methods turn out to be impossible…the greater the changes… the greater The Unintended Consequences…..forcing piecemeal improvisation… unplanned planning….” “Piecemeal engineering ….attacks problem with open mind….for it has decided beforehand that.. reconstruction is possible and necessary…(that human uncertainties exist)” Holistic engineering deal with uncertainty of human factor by controlling it through institutional means……. (Popper, Piecemeal social Engineering, in Popper Selections, p ) Adaptation-adaptive management becomes the democratic norms.

12 The Small “s”: Water: Means to Other Social Ends Our English Dictionaries define security as: “ freedom from danger, from fear or anxiety, from want or deprivation.” This is the history of humanity’s management of water: trying to be sure we have good water, in the right quantity at the proper time and place. Predicting floods, reserving sources for droughts, using water to help us generate wealth and avoid deprivation. The Big “S”: Conflict, War, Large Scale Violence Water as Independent variable, cause of war – conflict Water as Tool of War – social Violence Eco – Shocks and Social Unrest WATER SECURITY: BIG “S”AND SMALL “s” Interdependence Vulnerability or Flexibility? 2. DEFINING WATER AND SECURITY

13 Defining Water Stress and “s” Defining Water Stress: Access vs. Scarcity vs. Stress North & Central America: 15% of Water – 8% of population Asia: 36% of Water – 60% of population South America: 26% of water – 6% of population Europe: 11% of water – 13% of population Africa: 11% of water – 13% of population (Zimmerman in T.L. Anderson, Tapping Water markets, RFF Press, 2012 P. 4) Access to What? Asia: 35% of waste water is treated Latin America: 14% of waste water is treated Africa: 1% of waste water is treated (T.L. Anderson, Tapping Water markets, RFF Press, 2012, P. 5) Most People live: Far distance from water sources; Where most water comes in only a few months of the years.

14 Hard to determine whether water is truly scarce in the physical sense at a global scale (a supply problem) Hard to determine if it is available but should be used better (a demand problem). Most widely used indicator, the Falkenmark indicator, does not help to explain the true nature of water scarcity. The more complex indicators are not widely applied because data are lacking to apply them and the definitions are not intuitive. Water is (p) physically scarce in densely populated arid areas, Central and West Asia, and North Africa, Scarcity at a national scale has as much to do with the development of the demand as the availability of the supply. Frank R. Rijsberman,, International Water Management Institute, P.O. Box 2075, Colombo, Sri Lanka Defining Water Stress and the small “s”: Summary on Water Indices

15 Internal Stability and Security (large S) Water Security (small s) Minimum Platform for Growth Investment in allocation means (e.g. hard and soft Multi-Purpose Water Infrastructure) Water Actions as Key Societal Adaptation Tools Strategic Security 3. MAIN THESIS

16 WATER IS MORE THEN ACCESS Many uses: irrigation, floods damage reductions, drought, ecological flows, hydropower, energy coolants, navigation, recreation Multiple Purpose uses Allows for Jointly Creating Benefits (both off and on) the water vs. Fighting Over Allocation of Flows – Key to Water Venue of Dialog Water’s Tradition of Expanding the Negotiating Pie vs. Reallocating Limited Pie: – Absolute vs. Relative Scarcity; Redistribution vs. Relative Deprivation – Interest/Needs Based Negotiations - Approaches – Virtual Water Movement Water More Humanity’s Learning Ground for Building Community then Generator of War Mechanisms to allocate and reallocate among water uses are Keys to Meg Nexus: RBO’s - Infrastructure - Markets - Planning – Regulations – Rights – trade – technology - others

17 Grey and Sadoff, World Bank

18 4. Water Infrastructure Investment Matters Strong correlations between public capital investment and movements in private sector productivity Ratio of non-structural/behavioral measures to structural measures matters: If too high - extreme events can crack social system as leaders have no tools to respond If too low - ecological costs are too high Myth of Soft Path = More Democratic Investing in Managing Uncertainty Creates Platform for Growth

19 Water in a Changing World, The UN World Water Development Report 3, UNESCO, 2009 Trends in Water Access: By 2015 will meet targets of 90% with access Trends in Sanitation: By 2015 only slightly more with access and will fall far short

20 Average Income levels and irrigation intensity in India Net effect: districts with: < 10% of cropped area irrigated % below poverty line > 50% of cropped area irrigated % below poverty line “Poverty is worst Polluter…” Gandhi China: 30 years 0 growth in Irrigation water use Increase effectiveness by 8 million hectares Increase grain yield by 50% Water Resources in China, MWR.www.waterpub.com.cn Briscoe, World Bank, 2000

21 Rainfall & GDP growth: Ethiopia Rainfall & GDP growth: Zimbabwe Economy-wide impacts Ethiopia’s….limited ability to cope with droughts and floods….are estimated to cost the economy one-third of its growth potential (IWMI, Water Policy Brief, Issue 31, 2009) Grey and Sadoff World Bank

22 Richest NationsPoorest Nations Losses % GDP Economic Losses % GDPBillion $ Disasters Losses, Total and as Share of GDP, In the Richest and Poorest Nations, 1985 – 99 (world watch 2001)

23 Delli Priscoli and Guillermo Mendoza, USACE, IWR

24 Emerging Nations

25 Impairment to Human activity and Creativity is key; not just # Trigger Events: (e.g. Damage % of GDP…)

26 RURAL WATER SUPPLY 5760 URBAN WATER SUPPLY 1565 RURAL ELECTRICITY 6699 VILLAGE ACCESS 7198 LITERACY INFANT MORTALITY (%0) LANDLESS POPULATION* 40 ** 25 * Irrıgable areas ** 1995 figures Turkey 2000 (%) (%) (%) REGIONWIDE CHANGES GAP - SE Anatolia Using Water to Achieve Operational Mega Nexus

27 5. Context: World Water Situation

28 Some of the Gloomy Arithmetic of Water 1.4 billion people lack safe water 80% of diseases carried by water: 1 child every 8 seconds killed and 5-7 million people annually: $125 billion in workday losses/yr. 50% of people lack adequate sanitation 20% of freshwater species near extinction 76% live in water stressed areas (less then 1000cm): most in politically unstable regions Losing irrigated land by 30% in 2025 and 50% by % of people will depend on world markets for food Asia: Over two thirds of population live in areas where 80% of rainfall occurs in 20% of the year

29 75% of People Without Access to Safe Water Reside in 16 Countries (numbers in millions) Source: The U.N. State of the World Population, 2004

30 40% of Worlds population lives on shared basins: or more than 50% of earth landmass

31 VIRTUAL WATER INTERDEPENEDENCE WATER SECURITY Virtual water trade in Asia could reduce water use for irrigation by 12%

32 Ground Water A spectacular increase of groundwater development for irrigation has occurred in most arid and semiarid countries. It is a “silent revolution”. Probably, about 50 % of the value of irrigated agriculture is obtained with groundwater but the volume of groundwater used is only a small fraction of the corresponding volume of surface water used for irrigation. World wide: Draw downs, land subsidence, saltwater intrusion, rising pumping costs, pollution

33 Poor and Privatization Of the 100 recent cases - 80% in middle income countries A few International companies 4-5 The Poor pay far higher % of income: – $1/cm - $2.50/cm on average – In US we pay $.30 - $.80 on average – Connected poor pay $1/cm & unconnected $5.50-$16.50/cm! Cochambamba Bolivia Increased Urbanization

34 Hydro Potential Used: OECD countries 70%, LA 35%, Asia 20%, Africa 6% 2 Billion People lack Electricity and electricity Demand is growing- Cheap Electricity a traditional key to economic development World Economic Forum 85%+ of renewable is Hydro

35

36 Type of water-related natural disasters, Distribution of water-related disasters, More than 2,200 major and minor water-related disasters occurred in the world between 1990 and Asia and Africa were the most affected continents, with floods accounting for half of these disasters. Extracted from the Executive Summary of the World Water Development report. CRED (Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters) The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database. Brussels, Université Catholique de Louvain. TYPE AND DISTRIBUTION OF DISASTERS

37 “You cannot say that because there is climate change that the developing World shouldn't grow…you are essentially saying,..no more electricity to your house, close your factories, go back to the fields.” (C. Bhyhan, Center for Science and Environment New Delhi, 2009, in Wash Post B8, Nov. 22, 2009) “In India…almost half a million children die each year from water borne Diarrhea, providing access to basic services such as clean drinking water Is more pressing ten cutting emissions,… and to do so requires energy..” (Indian Minister - Wash Post B8, Nov. 22, 2009) “If as a result of technology, self denial and determination, you were to cut Your emissions by 50% -the moment you achieve it yourself, we will accept that cap.” (Ahluwalia, Policy Advisor, Government India, in Wash Post, B8, Nov ) 6. Climate Change - Energy – Water Mega Nexus Debate Adaptation vs. Mitigation Raise Ethical Issues in Water Policy Debate (E.G.s from Copenhagen)

38 Recent Assessment of Climate Models  Regional trends in extreme events are not always captured by current models  It is difficult to assess the significance of these discrepancies and to distinguish between model deficiencies and natural variability How Accurate Are Global Climate Models? (CHRS -Center for Hydrometeorology and Remote Sensing, University of California, Irving) Factoring in Resiliency in water resources systems design and planning is still the safest approach!

39 Political No matter stand on mitigation: water actions will be needed Positive outlet for politicians Do something which registers in generational memory Analytical Existing Tradition of refined modeling to support probabilistic IWRM GCM models cannot relate to level of sub continental: to decisions needs of Water Managers Given uncertainty – already at 500 yr return rates Moral Need actions that affect source of fears in near future Economic Fraction of Mitigation costs Ethical Dilemma of Climate Change Policy and Water Climate, water and security debates are raising public anxiety About Change while inadvertently denying adaptive means to cope with projected events; thus raising questions about the ethics of adaptation vs. mitigation Energy Water Nexus Debate

40 8. Africa

41 Africa’s colonial legacy: many international rivers  60+ basins  More int’l rivers shared by 3 or more countries than any other continent  most future water development on international rivers  political complexity  requires capacity/resources  dispute constrains growth  cooperation a major growth opportunity

42 Dependence on Neighbouring States for River Inflows / Water Transfers Kilometres N 0 % % % % > 50 % Degree of Dependence on Neighbouring States © Pete Ashton

43

44 Drought Flood & inundation Landslide Desertification Contamination Epidemic & disease Dispute, even conflict Water: a source of destruction & poverty, & dispute Reuters, Feb. 20, 2006 “Approximately 11 million people are threatened by starvation in Djibouti, Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia and Tanzania… Rain is unlikely before April” 2006: International Year of Deserts and Desertification each year, desertification & drought cause an estimated $42bn in lost agricultural production People’s Daily, March 11, 2006 Malawi Cholera Outbreak "we have cholera outbreaks every year during the rainy season" - Habib Somanje, Preventive Health Services. 46 people have died from the recorded 3,852 cases. The Daily Monitor, Feb. 7, 2006 “The death toll from the drought was also swelling from an upsurge in fighting between nomadic cattle- herders over scant water & grazing resources... March could see many more killed” Oxfam, Kenya

45 The three menaces to Africa’s stability and peace: Climate Change, natural resources degradation and low infrastructure Increase in storms and flood disasters Need for Operational Mega Nexus Ousman Dione World Bank

46 Africa’s Natural Legacy: Massive climate variability with vulnerability to droughts Risk of recurrent drought Much higher rainfall variability than USA

47 Significant correlation between rainfall variability & GDP Mean Annual Rainfall MonthlyRainfallVariability Bubble Size = GDP per capita (Blue = low interannual variability of rainfall) Most Sub Saharan Africa countries face more challenging climate conditions High variability High mean Wealthy nations share a small window of favorable climate (low variability; moderate rainfall) After Brown, 2007

48 Africa’s MDG Challenge Africa’s gap in meeting basic water supply and sanitation

49 Africa’s gap in developing and modernizing its irrigation potential: South Africa, Somalia (2) <25%; Mali, Sudan, Uganda, Botswana, Malawi, Zimbabwe (6) 25-50%; Rest >50% Ousman Dione, World Bank

50 Hydropower potential tapped Africa’s infrastructure gap: electricity

51 Africa and Europe: Hydropower comparison Pop. Mill. GNP/cap $ HP pot. MW HP dev. MW Elec./ca p kWh/yr CO2 em. ton/c/yr Ethiopia , Kenya293611, Rwanda Tanzania332673, Uganda222982, Austria823,33318,30011,7006, France5922,12826,00025,2006, Germany8222,4308,0005,6005, Italy5818,80822,80015,2674, Norway536,88947,20027,87324, Ousmani Dione, World Bank

52 Africa’s infrastructure gap: Lack of water storage North America: 6150 m 3 /person Australia: 4729 m 3 /person China: 2486 m 3 /person Artificial storage – m 3 per person World Bank

53 Adaptive Security Matrix Egypt Zimbabwe Burundi Mozambique Tanzania Malawi Eritrea Sudan Angola Namibia Botswana Mauritius South Africa Swaziland Uganda Kenya Congo DR Zambia Adaptively Insecure Adaptively Secure Water Insecure Water Secure Second-Order Resource Availability Expressed as GNP PPP for 1998 in US$/cap/yr -1 X 10 3 First-Order Resource Availability Expressed as Freshwater Availability in 1998 m 3 /cap/yr -1 X 10 3 Lesotho Ethiopia © Turton & Warner, 2002.

54 Looks like New Day in Southern Africa: …Over allocations of water – new demands that will not go away – must shift use of water – new reallocating mechanisms needed to find highest value uses – (e.g. markets - trading – technology - others) Southern Africa not alone; others struggle with same problems; Hydrology and maintaining socio/economic prosperity: Prices not reflecting scarcity – need to shift demand curve reallocate: California and U.S. South West South Australia and Murray Darling China North others Existing Hydraulic Infrastructure in Africa (Engines of Socio/Economic Prosperity) Ashton in Turton et. al. 2008

55 Economist, March 31 st – April 6 th, 2012, p 57 Democracies in AfricaAfrica: Hydraulic Infrastructure Political Economy of Water Investment as Platforms for Growth??

56 FDI to Developing = $400 billion: $37 billion in Aid – $17 billion in FDI Africa 5% of World Capital Flows; Today 1% (Moyo p,98) As African aid African growth poverty From 1970s social services/poverty from 5% to >50 % of aid (p.47 Moyo) Aid = Dependency and corruption: Africa needs Direct investment different FDI instruments such as bonds and infrastructure; China almost $ 900 Billion in FDI since 2004; Chinese FDI = $900 million: US FDI = $20 million; Chinese are bartering energy for infrastructure – equity investment. (p , Moyo) Current Africans surveyed view Chinese influence more positive then U.S. (p. 120 Moyo) Last 50 years $ 1 Trillion transferred in Aid to Africa: 30 years ago Malawi, Burundi, Burkino Faso higher per capita then then China (p.x Moyo). Dead Aid : Why Aid is not Working, by Dambisa Moyo

57 9. Conclusions Water is the constraint that forces choices; trade-offs – integrative “jump start” Trade-offs are choices among water uses; Patterns of uses are prioritized values: Patterns Change over time: Depend on: Socio- Economic Development Political Culture Geography (wet, dry, variability) Integrative Processes = Political Messages = Reallocations of Political Power Often defined as technical terms and political is left out BUT- Cannot achieve integration w/o political Processes to allocate water are means to achieve operational NEXUS: Politics – markets – water banking - RBO’s – Infrastructure - Planning – Regulations – Defining Rights – trade - others Finding the operational Nexus Region Specific Trade-offs

58 river + +dike = Political order = Water management (and water reform) is ALWAYS political….. Ancient Chinese Characters describing water management

59 治水 治国 Only one who can govern water, He can govern a country. One who wants to govern his country Should govern water first.


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