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CHINA’S RACE FOR CYBER-ENABLED POWER August 2014 Polity Wiley 1 Greg Austin, Presentation at Brookings Institution, 9 December 2014.

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Presentation on theme: "CHINA’S RACE FOR CYBER-ENABLED POWER August 2014 Polity Wiley 1 Greg Austin, Presentation at Brookings Institution, 9 December 2014."— Presentation transcript:

1 CHINA’S RACE FOR CYBER-ENABLED POWER August 2014 Polity Wiley 1 Greg Austin, Presentation at Brookings Institution, 9 December 2014

2 CHINA IN A CYBER-ENABLED WORLD PART 1 2

3 CHINA’S INFO TECH ACHIEVEMENTS manufacturing: Lenovo “biggest” PC manufacturer in the world (2013) social: more netizens than any other country scientific: first teleportation of quantum information between remote particles (2012) engineering: IPv6 leadership role, fastest supercomputers “Biggest” surveillance system in human history (in terms of manpower) Cyber espionage 3 Greg Austin, Presentation at Brookings Institution, 9 December 2014

4 CHINA SLIPS IN CYBER POWER RANKING Network Readiness Index of the annual Global Information Technology Report: China’s ranking 2011: 36 th 2012: 51 st 2013: 58 th 2014: 62 st …. among 148 countries 4 Greg Austin, Presentation at Brookings Institution, 9 December 2014

5 SMART CITIES RANKINGS NOV 2014: CHINA BETWEEN 2 nd AND 3 rd WORLD 1.London 2.Seoul 3.Hong Kong 4.Singapore 5.Toronto 6.New York 7.Chicago 8.Berlin 9.Sydney 10.Paris 11.Tokyo 12.Los Angeles 13.Buenos Aires 14.Dubai 15.Moscow 16.Shanghai 17.Beijing 18.Mumbai 19.Rio de Janeiro 20.Cairo 5 Greg Austin, Presentation at Brookings Institution, 9 December 2014

6 RACING FOR CYBER-ENABLED POWER China’s leaders accept the broad thrust of these assessments: China is (a) lagging and (b) slipping off the pace The book is not primarily about what happens in cyberspace It is a book about China’s leadership and their view of the country’s “cyber-enabled power” – (a) how advanced information technology enables shifts in power (politics, economics, strategic/diplomatic) (b) what China has to do to be competitive in these “new” power stakes 6 Greg Austin, Presentation at Brookings Institution, 9 December 2014

7 CYBER-ENABLED POWER REFERENCE CONCEPTS AND DATES Machlup 1962: knowledge economy Information economy Masuda 1980: “computopia”, information utilities, redefinition of privacy: information society – power is redefined by the information ecosystem (machines + networks + software + data itself) Internet revolution: information superhighway ( ) World Summit on Information Society Greg Austin, Presentation at Brookings Institution, 9 December 2014

8 INFORMATION SOCIETY: HOW TRANSFORMATIONAL? Transformational, and radically so; Castells 2012: politics “forever transformed” Value-based, people-oriented not merely technologies (WSIS , CAS Roadmap 2011) Floridi: sufficiently different to reassess: we now exist in and depend on an “information ecosystem” the Chinese leaders are in a permanent and involuntary “dialogue” with the world on values for that information ecosystem … as are US leaders 8 Greg Austin, Presentation at Brookings Institution, 9 December 2014

9 IDEAL VALUES FOR CYBER-ENABLED POWER (INFO SOCIETY) National information ecosystem freedom of information exchange protection of information exchange trusted information Innovative information economy transformation intent innovation system innovator class Global information ecosystem strategic stability bridging military divides interdependent informatized security 9 Greg Austin, Presentation at Brookings Institution, 9 December 2014

10 CHINA’S LEADERSHIP VALUES FOR CYBER-ENABLED POWER PART 2 10

11 AS BACKGROUND: CHINA TIME LINE Scientific “black hole”, “light bulb” households 1983Toffler and electronics industry target 1993Leaders decide for information economy 1995Limited public access to internet, USITO 2000information society decision & take-off 2001Small Leading Group moves to Premier 2006National Informatization Plan internet white paper 2011CAS Roadmap for Information Technology 2014 Xi proclaims “cyber power” ambition and takes over Small Leading Group 11 Greg Austin, Presentation at Brookings Institution, 9 December 2014

12 INFORMATION ECOSYSTEM: IDEAL VALUES freedom of information exchange (#1) Protection of information exchange (#2) Trusted information (#3) 12 Greg Austin, Presentation at Brookings Institution, 9 December 2014

13 NATIONAL INFORMATION ECOSYSTEM: CHINA LEADERSHIP VALUES freedom of information exchange: i-dictatorship (#1) Protection of information exchange: state secrets law (#2) Trusted information: trust the CCP’s information (#3) 13 Greg Austin, Presentation at Brookings Institution, 9 December 2014

14 INNOVATIVE INFORMATION ECONOMY: IDEAL VALUES transformation intent (#1) Innovation system (#2) Innovator class (#3) 14 Greg Austin, Presentation at Brookings Institution, 9 December 2014

15 #1 TRANSFORMATION INTENT: HOW HAS CHINA FARED? High rhetorical commitment (NRI: China has highest government commitment among G20) Informatization of manufacturing: slow Informatization of education: slow Informatization of agriculture: very slow Informatization of public health: not too bad (SARS experience and pandemic threat) 15 Greg Austin, Presentation at Brookings Institution, 9 December 2014

16 #2 INNOVATION SYSTEM: HOW HAS CHINA FARED? 2005: innovation is a private sector-led Academy of Sciences laboratories of foreign firms, patents emergence of venture capital strengthening of IPR regimes little private sector funding of universities China 2030 : “innovation at the technology frontier is quite different in nature from simply catching up technologically” 16 Greg Austin, Presentation at Brookings Institution, 9 December 2014

17 #3 INNOVATOR CLASS: HOW HAS CHINA FARED? After 2000: one of the biggest expansions of tertiary education any country had seen for a long time IT and postgrad (especially Ph D) brain drain (2012: 40% return globally, 25% from USA) crisis in universities (CCP loyalty) social environment (one child policy, freedom of conscience, “labor in freedom”) 17 Greg Austin, Presentation at Brookings Institution, 9 December 2014

18 LOOKING AHEAD: ECONOMIC In a globalized information economy, China should expect to excel only in a share of main sectors under an international division of labor Innovation localities in Beijing and Shanghai (Wenzhou?) Politics: the balance between multinational corporations and the national actors Politics: assessing and redressing market failures in research and development Politics: venture financing More open to “the foreign” 18 Greg Austin, Presentation at Brookings Institution, 9 December 2014

19 SECURITY IN GLOBAL INFO-SPHERE: IDEAL VALUES Strategic stability (#1) No military divides (#2) Interdependent informatized security (#3) 19 Greg Austin, Presentation at Brookings Institution, 9 December 2014

20 TIMELINE OF CHINA’S CYBER MILITARY DEVELOPMENT 2001PLA joins Informatization Leading Group 2003 CMC Decision at doctrinal level; two stages 2020 & Training regs approved 2007 Anti-satellite weapon test 2011 Changes in GSD comms structures 2014 “Cyber Power”, Xi takes control 20 Greg Austin, Presentation at Brookings Institution, 9 December 2014

21 #1 STRATEGIC STABILITY: HOW HAS CHINA DONE? strong commitment in principle to a stable world order want an adjustment of the balance of power more in their favour committed to positioning the country for long-term cyber military power concerned about U.S. capability for pre- emption (cyber in nuclear C4I) an aggressive actor in cyber espionage (like other major powers) a conflict in these values and need for reassurance on all sides. 21 Greg Austin, Presentation at Brookings Institution, 9 December 2014

22 #2 BRIDGING DIVIDES: HOW HAS CHINA DONE? a deepening commitment to peaceful integration with Taiwan because this strategy is working China has replaced the United States as Taiwan’s main economic partner the pay-offs for China in Taiwan policy have been spectacular Yet its adversarial view of the United States had deepened considerably. 22 Greg Austin, Presentation at Brookings Institution, 9 December 2014

23 #3 INTERDEPENDENT INFORMATIZED SECURITY: HOW HAS CHINA DONE? committed in principle and practice to cooperative norms in economic and technological aspects of the global information economy strengthened its commitment to joint problem solving in non-military domains unable so far to bridge its formidable differences with the United States and like-minded countries over internet governance and network security. 23 Greg Austin, Presentation at Brookings Institution, 9 December 2014

24 LOOKING AHEAD: INTERNATIONAL SECURITY timetable of 2050 for full informatization of the armed forces should be attainable considerable successes in cyber espionage, but so too its potential adversaries unlikely to make an appreciable dint in the ‘information superiority’ of the US global alliance system China’s race for capability will take more account of diplomatic costs because China needs a globalized economy. 24 Greg Austin, Presentation at Brookings Institution, 9 December 2014

25 CONCLUSIONS PART 3 25

26 CONCLUSIONS IN THE BOOK China's censorship policies and its “closed” education system have constrained its ambitions to become an advanced technology country China's leaders are deeply concerned about the difficulty of building a high- performing national innovation system China has proven itself incapable of resisting the powerful transformation effects of the information age The leaders now want more, not less. 26 Greg Austin, Presentation at Brookings Institution, 9 December 2014

27 WHAT CAN WE LEARN China and the USA are both subject to an information revolution that is transformational and NOT defined by the policy preferences of either. IT underpins all advanced science China’s cyber-enabled power will remain heavily dependent on private actors and governments in the United States, Japan, and the European Union (the greatest “lawful” transfer of wealth in human history … since at least 1979) Duan Qing (2012): China still needs “amphibians”, a class of people who can bridge between worlds (industrial age/information age; leaders/scientists; closed/open) “Knowledge has no flag”… except in the narrow area of national security, and even there allegiances have been blurred irrevocably by the information revolution. 27 Greg Austin, Presentation at Brookings Institution, 9 December 2014


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