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John Husing, Ph.D. Economics & Politics, Inc. Chief Economist, IEEP Kern County... Economic Strength & Key Issues.

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Presentation on theme: "John Husing, Ph.D. Economics & Politics, Inc. Chief Economist, IEEP Kern County... Economic Strength & Key Issues."— Presentation transcript:

1 John Husing, Ph.D. Economics & Politics, Inc. Chief Economist, IEEP Kern County... Economic Strength & Key Issues

2 After Losing 8.71 Million Jobs … U.S. Jobs Almost All The Way Back

3 California Economic Cycle ,066, ,315, Up 2.0% +287,726

4 Kern County: Job Growth Far More Than Double The Recession Loss e = +40,171

5 Two Ways Economies Grow

6 1. Gold Mine Theory … Historic Scenario Primary Tier Secondary Tier

7 Growth of Economic Base: Jobs

8 Economic Base: Changing Importance Rising Falling

9 Kern County Ranked 3 rd In U.S. Petroleum Production, 2013

10 Oil & Natural Gas Production Declining Millions Oil (bbl)Natural Gas (mcf) Source: CA Department of Convervation, Oil & Gas Division Oil & Natrual Gas Production Kern & Tulare Counties, Fracking?

11 Oil Prices Plunging: Fracking Targeted by Saudis?

12 Key Need: Work With Moderate Dems & Reps to use Poverty Issue to Fight Off Environmentalists

13 Military Spending

14 DOD Civilian Expenditures : 21.5% CPI: 39.5%

15 DOD Employment Changes

16 Key Need: Kevin McCarthy Is House Whip – Protect Local Sector

17 Kern County Agriculture Soaring

18 Huge Increase in Value of Kern County Agricultural Production : up $4.56 Billion 206.4% v. 39.5% Inflation

19 Key Needs: CA Water Policy; U.S. Trade Policy

20 2.“Dirt” … Beginning Scenario! A. Affordable Housing & Population Serving Jobs Kern County

21 Kern Co. Home Price Advantage

22 BUILD FREEWAYS & THEY’LL COME Don’t Build Them & They’ll Come Anyway!

23 New Home Permits: Nearing 1990s Levels CA Regulatory Policy (CEQA) Hampers Job Growth

24 Population Growth: Recovery Gaining Speed Kern Co. up 4.0% California up 2.9%

25 Home Sales Flat

26 Median Home Prices: Strengthening 47.6%

27 Key Need: Work With Moderate Dems & Reps Using Poverty Argument to Reform CEQA

28 Taxable Trade: Spectacular ! 40% Beyond Pre-Recession Peak

29 Taxable Sales Growth Rates

30 Key Need: Potential Retail Sales Thru e-Commerce Fulfillment Centers

31 Industrial Growth

32 Location

33 Industrial Market – 3 rd Tightest In Surrounding Markets

34 Industrial Lease Rates Third Least Expensive of Nearby Markets 750,000 Sq. Ft.: Kern Co. Would Lease for $3.60 million a year. In L.A. County, it would be $5.58 million. Kern Co. would be -$1.98 million or -35.5% less expensive.

35 Mfg. & Logistics Workers Are Paid Less Than In L.A., More Than Most Nearby Areas

36 California Just 1.3% of U.S. ManuNeeduring Job Growth CA Regulatory Policy Has Essentially Stopped ManuNeeduring Growth

37 Key Need: Work With Moderate Dems & Reps Using Poverty Argument For Regulatory Reform

38 Logistics Los AngelesLong Beach Panama Looks Like Less Of An Issue Than It Has

39 Deep Water Ports Handle Largest Ships Deep Water Ports Handle Largest Ships

40 Best Land Side Infrastructure At Ports

41 So. California’s Goods Handling Complex Alameda CorridorHigh Tech Warehousing Interstate RailI-5 & SR 58

42 National Rail & Highway Links

43 Port Container Volumes

44 Fulfillment Centers

45 E-Commerce Growth Rates Year Over Year by Quarter

46 Beware: CA Regulators Now Plan To Reduce Truck Trips By Impacting Logistics Growth Key Need: Work With Moderate Dems & Reps Using Poverty Argument For Regulatory Reform

47 Office Market

48 One of the Tightest Office Market In The U.S.

49 Office Lease Rates: Low

50 Physician Coverage An Issue In Many Places

51 Health Care Demand Set To Explode People Without Health Insurance (2013) 155,955 (18.7%) People Will Age, Already 55 & Over 168,289 (19.5%) Population Growth Will Resume ( ) 211,439 (32.0%)

52 Key Need: Work With Moderate Dems & Reps Using Poverty Argument to Reform CEQA

53 Attacking Economic Difficulties: Central Spine of California

54 Poverty: All People

55 Poverty: Children Under 18

56 Adult Education An Issue

57 Sectors Where Growth Is Needed Minimum Education Requirements To Enter The Sector Skill Ladders Up Which Workers Can Migrate to Better Paying Jobs by On The Job Learning or Short Course Training Average or Median Pay Scales That Provide Middle Class Life Styles Job Growth Occurring

58 Sectors With High School or Less Education To Get First Job

59 Average Pay By Sector

60 What Is California Regulating To Death Mining, Oil & Gas Manufacturing Construction (CEQA) Logistics (Wholesale Trade, Warehousing, Trucking)

61 In The Name of Public Health: State Is Cutting Off Job Growth In Sectors Marginally Educated Workers Need To Move Out of Poverty BUT …

62 Poverty A Public Health Issue 1.Socio-Economics (Poverty, Lack of Jobs) 40% 2.Population’s Behaviors Related To Poverty30% 3.Access to Medical Care An Issue for the Poor20% 4.Environmental 10% Source: Different Perspectives For Assigning Weights To Determinants of Health, University of Wisconsin, Public Health Institute, %

63 Policy Thoughts 1. Regulators Should Include Cumulative Impact On Job Growth When Impacting Blue Collar Sectors 2. Cost of Regulation Must Include Public Health Costs Imposed by Stopping Jobs Growth Leading To Middle Class Incomes 3. Allow Fracking As Long As Health Effects Mitigated 4.Reform CEQA 5.Encourage ManuNeeduring By Creating Appeals System Not Controlled by Regulatory Agencies 6.Have Legislative Analyst’s Office Continuously Looking At Impact of Regulatory Agencies on Poverty 7.Congress Rein in EPA’s Attempt To Lower CO 2 Limits

64 Attacking Economic Difficulties: We Need An Inland CA Coalition of Dems & Reps Whose Residents Are Being Hurt By Regulatory Over-Reach

65 Kern County Has A Strong Story To Tell Strong Base In Petroleum & Natural Gas Strong Agricultural Base Employment Level Has Recovered From the Great Recession Well Placed For North-South Logistics Population Growth Speeding Up Southern California’s Most Affordable Housing Good Labor Costs Low Space Costs Available Land

66


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