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THE REPORTS DATABOOK Analysis of data trends over 30 years to compare the economic position of today’s young workers with that of a generation ago Evaluates the ability of young workers to build strong middle class households now and in the future POLL Firsthand look at how young Americans feel about their economic situation, their prospects for the future, and their aspirations of working hard and getting ahead. Conducted by Lake Research Partners and Bellwether Research and Consulting. STORIES (not covered in this presentation) Stories of young people entering adulthood in a time of uncertainty, as relayed to Young Invincibles by the young people themselves.
KEY AREAS EXPLORED Jobs And The Economy Raising A Family Cost Of Living Higher Education Health Care And Coverage
DEMOGRAPHIC FOCUS Report covers young people ages 18 to 34 today; mostly Millennials, but a few Gen-Xers. Compares Millennnials to their parents, the Baby Boomers, who were similarly-aged (15 to 34) in 1980
CONTEXT major economic and political shift in last 30 years globalization and technology have been important, but our nation’s response to these forces is more important public policy either failed to address new challenges, or made things worse
KEY FINDINGS: Only young workers with at least a bachelor’s degree, either male or female, saw earnings increase over the last generation Median earnings for young African-Americans are 75% of the earnings of whites; 68% for Latinos Young women earn less than men at every level of education. 29% of 18-24 year olds and 16% of 25-34 year-olds are underemployed The percentage of young adults with jobs is at its lowest point in a generation
Earning by Race/Ethnicity Still Show Wide Disparities
Unemployment Rate by Age, Sex, and Race/Ethnicity, 2010 Unemployment rates are higher for young Americans 17.3% for 18-24 year-olds, 10.1% for 25-34, and 7.6% for 35+ Young men have higher unemployment rates than young women 19.7% for young men ages 18-24; 14.6% for women. Unemployment rates are higher for young people of color of either sex 17.6% for African Americans ages 25-34, versus 11.3% for Latinos and 8.9% for whites. Young African American men have the highest rates 32.6% for African Americans men ages 18-24; 19.3% for 25-34
Overall Employment Levels for Young People at Historic Lows
KEY FINDINGS Young people are getting married and starting families later. The labor force participation of mothers rose 25% since 1980. Just 11% of all workers had access to paid family leave benefits. Center-based child care fees for two children exceeded annual median rent payments.
Young People Waiting Longer to Marry, Have Children
Child Care Arrangements of Working Mothers The share of children with no regular child care arrangement (“other”) has grown dramatically. Decrease in access to center-based care for below-poverty families 12% of such families use center-based care today, down from 21% in 1988. Differences by Race/Ethnicity African Americans use center-based care at about the same rates as whites, but use other paid care (nannies, etc.) less and relative care more. Hispanics use paid care of all forms much less than either African Americans or whites, and rely on relative care much more, particularly grandparent and other relative care.
KEY FINDINGS 41.3% of 25-34 year-old households spend more than 30% of their income on rent. The share of housing-burdened young households (25-34) rose from 28% in 1980 to 41% in 2009. The share of young adults living with their parents increased rapidly over the past decade. Levels of credit card debt among those ages 25 to 34 rose 81% since 1989, to an average of $6,255 in 2007.
Rent’s Share of Income Has Ballooned Since Housing Bubble
As Rent Rose, So Did The Share of Housing-Burdened Young Adults
More Young Adults of All Ages Still Live With Their Parents
KEY FINDINGS: Educational attainment of young people of all ethnicities/races has increased over the past generation. Young women are significantly more educated than they were a generation earlier, and have surpassed young men, whose educational attainment has stagnated. Average public school tuition is nearly three times higher today than in 1980 Two out of three students graduate with student loan debt, at an average of over $24,000 The student loan default rate rose 31% over just 2 years.
Post-High College Enrollment Grows, But Gaps By Income Remain 7 out of 10 high school graduates enroll in college, but in 2009 the gap in enrollment between low- and high-income households was 29%.
Racial/Ethnic Disparities in Completion Rates Remain Stark…
…Leading to Continued Gaps in Educational Attainment Women, however, have made huge gains Overall, the percentage of young people with college degrees has risen 24% of 25-34 year-olds had Bachelor’s Degrees in 1980; now, 33% do. Educational attainment of men has stagnated, while women have soared Percentage of women ages 25-34 with bachelor’s degrees+ has risen from 21% to 37% in the past 30 years, while young men’s has remained flat. Attainment for all races/ethnicities has risen, but African Americans and Latinos still trail Percent of 25-34 year olds with bachelor’s degrees+ in 2011: Latinos – 14%, African Americans – 21%, whites – 40%.
Tuition and Fees at Public Schools Has Nearly Tripled Public Four-Year vs. Public Two-Year
Pell Grants Cover a Rapidly Shrinking Share of Costs Student aid has not kept up with tuition increases. In 1980 the maximum Pell Grant covered 69% of the cost of attendance, today it covers 34%. Maximum Pell Grant as a Percentage of College Costs
Student Loan Debt a Heavy Burden For All, Particularly Minorities Two-thirds of students graduate with student loan debt, at an average of $24,842. African Americans are more likely to borrow, and to graduate with more debt. Undergraduate Student Loan Debt by Race, 2008
Student Loan Defaults Rose During Great Recession, Particularly For-Profit
KEY FINDINGS: In just 10 years, employer-sponsored insurance dropped 12.8% for workers 18-24 and 8.5% for workers 25-34. During the recession, uninsurance rose among both 18- 24 and 25-34 year-olds. Young people of color are disproportionately likely to lack insurance. The ACA has begun to reverse that trend 1 million young people under the age of 26 joined their parent's plan in the last quarter of 2010 and the first two quarters of 2011. Uninsurance rates for young people dropped in 2010, halting a decades-long increase.
Young Latinos Disproportionately Lack Health Insurance
Young People Turn to Credit Cards to Pay Medical Bills
Uninsurance Rates Have Risen Dramatically Over Past Decade
Coverage Has Risen Since Passage of ACA While uninsurance rates climbed during the recession, more recent numbers show the benefits of the Affordable Care Act (ACA) to young people. 18-24 year olds saw a 2% drop in uninsurance in 2010, largely due to the ACA provision allowing them to remain on their parents’ plans. That is one million additional insured, thanks to the ACA
Young Invincibles/ Dēmos Findings from a Nationwide Survey of 872 Respondents Age 18-34 Celinda Lake and Joshua Ulibarri Lake Research Partners Washington, DC | Berkeley, CA | New York, NY LakeResearch.com 202.776.9066 Christine Matthews Bellwether Research & Consulting Alexandria, VA Bellwether-research.com 703.650.5203
43 Key Takeaways Juggling Hope in Tough Times. Members of the Millennial generation remain optimistic about their future and the future of their generation when it comes to achieving the American Dream. However, at the same time they feel economic anxiety and that things have gotten harder over the last four years. A plurality feels their generation may be worse off than their parents. A Tough Start with a Long Road Ahead. Young people demonstrate that they have had a tough start to adulthood. A majority of young Americans perceive their personal finances as just fair or poor. Furthermore, being decades away from retirement, a significant share is already experiencing intense worry about being unable to save enough for their retirement. An ambitious agenda for Elected leaders. As a result of the above - they believe that our elected leaders should focus on creating jobs and growing the economy, making college and more training affordable, and ensuring that Social Security is available for their generation.
44 A majority of young Americans rate their personal financial situation as just fair or poor. Just 1 in 16 perceive their financial situation as excellent. There is not a great deal of intensity in any particular direction, with most deciding between just fair or poor. How would you rate your personal current financial situation - excellent, good, just fair, or poor? -4 Darker colors used to indicate greater intensity.
45 Just 1 in 3 young Americans earn more than $30,000 per year. African-Americans and Latinos earn less than their young white counterparts, especially white men. Education, unsurprisingly, is a big part of earning potential. In which of the following ranges did your personal income fall last year, before taxes? [IF REFUSED OR Don’t know] Could you tell me if your annual personal income is below or above 30 thousand dollars? Most likely to earn less than $30K: Age 18-24 – 76% High school or less – 74% African-Americans – 69% Latinos – 67% Independents – 63% Most likely to earn more than $30K: College graduate or post-grad – 58% Republican men – 46% Age 25-34 – 44% Strong Republican – 44% White men – 43%
46 Despite mixed emotions on their personal economic situation, most young Americans say that their earnings have increased over the past four years. However, 1 in 6 say that they have decreased in that time period. [IF EMPLOYED]: In the last four years have your earnings increased, decreased or stayed the same? Asked only of those respondents who said they were employed either full- or part-time.
47 Regardless of the increased income, for many, especially minorities, it has become harder to make ends meet over the past four years, with more than 1 in 4 saying it has become much harder. Thinking about the last four years and your ability to make ends meet and pay your bills, would you say it has become much harder, somewhat harder, somewhat easier, or much easier to make ends meet?? -48 Darker colors used to indicate greater intensity. Most likely to say it has become much harder to make ends meet: Unemployed – 42% African-American women – 36% Latino men – 34% African-Americans – 33% Latinos – 32%
48 Even as half say their personal earnings have increased in the last four years, four in ten say they have fallen into greater debt within the past four years. Has your personal debt increased in the last four years, or not really?
49 Almost 3 in 10 do not have health insurance. The unemployed, those employed part-time, those with a diverse ethnic background, and young males are most likely to live without coverage. Right now, are you personally covered by any form of health insurance or health plan, or do you not have insurance at this time? Most likely have health insurance: Republicans age 18-24 – 86% College-educated women – 86% Income $30K and more – 86% Republican women – 82% 4-year college graduates – 81% Most likely not to have health insurance: Unemployed – 46% Employed part-time – 38% African-Americans age 18-24 – 37% Latinos – 36% Men age 18-24 – 35%
50 Most with health insurance have it through their place of work or their parents’ plan. [IF INSURANCE]: Which of the following best describes your health insurance coverage:
51 Healthcare affordability is the key issue for those without health insurance. Just 1 in 6 of the uninsured choose not to have health insurance. [IF INSURANCE]: Which of the following best describes your health insurance coverage:
52 Because of the current economy, almost 1 in 2 young Americans have delayed their plans to purchase a home. Many have also paused on entrepreneurship and education. Here are some things other people in your generation have said they have delayed because of the current economy. Please tell me if you have delayed that decision because of the economy and its impact on you. Yes, delayed No Don’t know 3 1 1 0 2 2
53 Regardless of the current economic environment, a majority still believes that everyone has an equal shot at being financially secure if they work hard and play by the rules. Hard work, along with education, are key components of achieving the American Dream. Here are two different statements about economic opportunity in America. Tell me which one is closer to your opinion even if neither is perfect: In America, everyone has an equal shot at being financially secure if they work hard and play by the rules In America, if you are born into one economic group you are likely to stay in that group because the rules favor a few Asked of one half of the total sample.
54 Even in this economy, most believe that the American Dream is still achievable. However, more are optimistic about their own chances than are about the rest of their generation. When it comes to most people in your generation, do you think the American Dream is still achievable or do you think it has become too hard to obtain and is unachievable for most people in your generation? And how about for you personally, do you think the American Dream is achievable or do you think it is too hard to obtain and is unachievable for you personally? For most people in your generation For you personally *In a recent nationwide survey conducted by Lake Research Partners among all American adults, 70% said that the American Dream is still alive, but just 68% said that they have already achieved it or will achieve it themselves. The wordings of the questions was similar, but not exact.
A majority is concerned that the middle class may be disappearing. More than 1 in 3 say they are worried a great deal, while just 11 percent say they are not worried at all. 55 How much does it concern you that the middle class may be disappearing - a great deal, a lot, some, a little, or not at all? +16 Darker colors used to indicate greater intensity.
56 The economy and jobs are not the only issue the youth wants Congress to focus on. Education, health care, and Social Security are also top priorities for many. Here are some issues other people have raised as priorities for Congress. For each one, please tell me if you think that should be the TOP priority, a priority but not the top, somewhat of a priority, or a low priority. [PROBE]: Should that be the TOP priority, a priority but not the top, somewhat of a priority, or a low priority. Net +70 +82 +65 +69 Less of a priority The top/ a priority Don’t know 1 1 1 1 Asked of one half of the total sample. +642
As the top remedies for the struggling economy, young Americans are most likely to support making education more affordable and investing in training for unemployed people. 57 Here are some things other people have said can help make the economy stronger. For each one please tell me whether you strongly support, somewhat support, somewhat oppose, or strongly oppose each action. [PROBE]: Do you strongly support, somewhat support, somewhat oppose, or strongly oppose Net +80 +77 Oppose Support Don’t know 2 1 Asked of one half of the total sample. +722
58 A plurality of young Americans identify with the Democratic Party, almost 1 in 4 are closer to the GOP, while 1 in 5 say they are independent. Generally speaking, do you think of yourself as a Republican, a Democrat, an independent, or something else? [IF REPUBLICAN OR DEMOCRAT:] Do you consider yourself a strong (Republican/Democrat) or a not-so-strong (Republican/Democrat)? [IF INDEPENDENT:] Would you say that you lean more toward the Republicans or more toward the Democrats? +17
59 4 in 5 young Americans say it is at least somewhat likely that they are going to vote in the 2012 election. However, only 61% are very likely to vote in next year’s election. What is the likelihood that you will vote in next year’s election for President, Congress, and other offices – are you very likely, somewhat likely, not very likely, or not likely at all to vote? +63 Darker colors used to indicate greater intensity.
60 Overall, Republicans and Democrats are equally likely to say they are going to vote next year. The difference, however, is in intensity with Republicans 10 percentage points more intense in their likelihood to vote. Democrats Republicans +80+73 Darker colors used to indicate greater intensity. What is the likelihood that you will vote in next year’s election for President, Congress, and other offices – are you very likely, somewhat likely, not very likely, or not likely at all to vote? Independents +54
61 Methodology Lake Research Partners and Bellwether Research & Consulting designed and administered this survey that was conducted by telephone using professional interviewers from September 25 to October 4, 2011. This nationwide survey reached a total of 872 adults age 18 to 34. The sample included 472 young adults reached on landlines and 400 young adults reached on cellphones. The two samples were weighted together so that cell dominant people (no landline or exclusively cell) account for 51% of the completed interviews. The margin of error for the whole sample is +/-3.32 percentage points. The sampling error for sub-groups is greater.
Celinda Lake firstname.lastname@example.org Joshua Ulibarri email@example.com Washington, DC | Berkeley, CA | New York, NY LakeResearch.com 202.776.9066 Alexandria, VA Bellwether-research.com 703.650.5203 Christine Matthews firstname.lastname@example.org