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Markov chain Analysis Mike Hoff, Director Institutional Research 10.31.2013.

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Presentation on theme: "Markov chain Analysis Mike Hoff, Director Institutional Research 10.31.2013."— Presentation transcript:

1 Markov chain Analysis Mike Hoff, Director Institutional Research

2 To estimate the ETSU Fall 2014 Enrollment Use a model that allows for testing recruitment and retention scenarios The results will be used to determine how far from goal, 15,500, ETSU appears to be To provide data which will inform defining college level enrollment improvement plans

3 Assuming a consistent external environment, and assuming that we make no changes to address recruitment and retention, the enrollment and progression patterns of students by class from year 1 to year 2 will remain stable – This allows for testing enrollment improvement plans because the variable impact is real and measurable Medicine and Pharmacy Enrollment is approximately stable and recognized as a known quantity

4 First-time and continuing freshmen can be combined as a total freshmen count Masters students, graduate specials, and ed specials can be combined as a total for projection only, but may be divided for goal setting

5 Markov chain – Is a time-series model that looks at past practice to predict future outcome – For enrollment modeling, Markov chain tracks students, by status, from year 1 to year 2 allowing the researcher to calculate an recruitment rate and dropout rate by class – The recruitment and retention rates are applied to the current standing of year 2 to students, adding in new inputs by class for year 2, to calculate enrollment for year 3

6 Markov chain was chosen because – It is used by other similar institutions, both in- state, and out-of-state – It uses only institutional data – Studies have shown it is accurate for 1 year projections Population based models were rejected due to reliance on external projections ARIMA and other SAS projections were rejected because of complexity without increased accuracy

7 Data were collected by year for the years 2008 – 2013, – These years were used to establish a validity test to understand the margin of error in the model – 2008 was the first year in Banner The data were then paired by year into two year groups to allow for projecting the next years enrollment – i.e and 2009 were used to project 2010, etc.

8 Year Estimate Projected by Model ActualDifference% Difference , , % , , % , , % , , % ,430N/A The projection for each year is a function of the actual enrollments from the two most recent prior years

9 Yes, a very slim one, on average +/ % That yields a projected enrollment range of 14,257 – 14,603 In other words, the model was, based on 4-years history, 98.8% accurate

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11 39% are leaving, either through graduation or dropout – 19% are graduating – 20% are leaving through dropout

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13 CollegeFreshmenSophomoreJuniorSenior UG Spec Total % of Total ND % UD % AS % BT % CR % CS % ED % NU % PU % Total 1, ,741100%

14 CollegeFreshmenSophomoreJuniorSeniorTotal % of Total AS % BT % CR % CS % ED % NU % PU % Total ,097100%

15 1,100 of the 3,212 New and Continuing Freshmen dropout or stop out Sophomore Enrollment is break-even, new & returning students are almost equal to dropouts Large Senior population leaving before graduation

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17 CollegeMasterGrad SpecialDoctorTotal % of Total ND % AS % BT % CR % CS % ED % GS 110.3% ME 220.6% NU % PU % Total %

18 CollegeMasterDoctorTotal% of Total AS % BT % CR % CS % ED % GS 110.5% ME 221.0% NU % PU % Total %

19 Who needs to be involved? Student recruitment and retention is everyone's responsibility

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21 Recruitment Retention

22 For ETSU to reach the 15,500 goal we must increase recruitment by 8% and retention by 6.5% or some combination yielding at least 1,070 students An 8% increase in recruitment is 440 students A 6.5% increase in retention equals 630 students

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24 CategoryWeight Recruitment Goal Freshmen38%167 Sophomore14%62 Junior13%57 Senior15%66 Undergraduate Special9%40 Masters10%44 Doctoral1%4 Total100%440

25 College WeightRecruitment Goal AS 35%154 BT 19%84 CR 8%35 CS 4%17 ED 17%75 NU 13%57 PU 4%18 Total 100%440

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27 Category Retention GoalDropout% of Dropout Freshmen % Sophomore % Junior % Senior % Undergraduate Special % Masters % Doctoral % Total %

28 CategoryWeight Retention Goal Freshmen38%239 Sophomore14%88 Junior13%82 Senior15%95 Undergraduate Special 9%57 Masters10%63 Doctoral1%6 Total100%630

29 CollegeWeightRetention Goal AS 35%220 BT 19%121 CR 8%50 CS 4%25 ED 17%107 NU 13%82 PU 4%25 Total 100%630

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31 CollegeWeight Recruitment Increase Retention Increase Total Increase AS 35% BT 19% CR 8% CS 4% ED 17% NU 13% PU 4% Total 100% ,070

32 We created the breakdown by college to ensure that as we grow we maintain the proportional distribution of students These goals will be achieved through a mix of college level and university level activities The goal today is to identify what is the most reasonable distribution of that responsibility

33 Why are students coming? – Undergraduate A majority of the work is being done by offices charged with carrying out that function effectively Smaller share of the work is being carried out by colleges departments – Graduate Colleges, departments, programs, and faculty play a more direct role in recruitment

34 Why are students staying? – Undergraduate A majority of the work is being carried out by colleges, departments, programs and faculty Smaller share of the work done by offices charged with carrying out that function effectively – Graduate An even larger majority of the work is being carried out by colleges, departments, programs, and faculty

35 Status Quo – Keep doing the same thing and assume things will ‘work out’ Change – Use data to develop a plan to have a positive impact on student retention, and enrollment

36 Absent a well executed, and successful, enrollment improvement plan ETSU’s enrollment in Fall 2014 is projected to be 14,430 – 1,070 students short of 15,500 goal “Status Quo means falling behind”

37 Model was 98% accurate over the past 4 years Model shows we are down, to-goal, 1,070 students Reaching the goal is best achieved through a combination of Recruitment and Retention

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39 Plans: – Must be college specific – Must be focused on the proportional share of enrollment improvement, using the framework of the working hypothesis – Must be transparent in depicting college engagement for bona fide improvement tactics – Will be assessed using the overall enrollment goals presented Each plan must clearly and convincingly make the case for achieving a defined percentage of the college recruitment and retention goals – Must include both recruitment and retention initiatives – Will be used to evaluate, by college, positions requested pending available funds – Should depict college assessment of risk

40 Consider – Pedagogy & Delivery Systems – Curriculum Bridge Courses – New Markets (International & Domestic) – New Collaborations – Alternative Schedules & Calendars – New Partnerships – New Student Populations With distinctive career goals Students who cannot come to main campus (ex. E-Learning, International, Out-of-state, etc.) Trade impacted workers – Service to others

41 What responsibility for recruitment should reasonably reside with – – Individual College, Academic Department, Program, and Faculty – Administrative and Academic Support functions (e.g. undergraduate admissions, graduate school, financial aid, scholarships, bursar, registrar, etc.) and any other office with significant customer service responsibility

42 What responsibility for retention should reasonably reside with – – Individual College, Academic Department, Program, and Faculty – Administrative and Academic Support functions (e.g. undergraduate admissions, graduate school, financial aid, scholarships, bursar, registrar, etc.) and any other office with significant customer service responsibility

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