1. Opportunity Assessment: or How Do I Know I Have A Great Idea?

2. Is this a good idea? Doggie Bags. Doggie Bags will be high quality plastic bags packaged in an attractive box that looks like a dog house to offer a convenient and clean way to pick up after your pet. Grocery bags often have holes and are messy to store. Sandwich bags are too small for a larger dog’s output. We will sell Doggie Bags in grocery store pet aisles for an average retail price of $4.99 for 75 bags. Competing pick up bags sold only at specialty pet stores are expensive, as high as twice our proposed price, unattractively packaged and not specifically designed for the challenges of handling dog waste. For example, our bags will have a gusseted bottom to easily grab the materials and no seams to eliminate tiny holes that might bring hands into contact with the waste.

3. Is this? MediRev. MediRev helps the 300,000 small medical and dental practices, clinics and hospitals in the U.S. collect the money they have earned. Because of the complexity of the US healthcare system, doctors and hospitals are collecting on average 45-55% of what they bill. Insurance companies use different care codes, require certain doctors’ notes, push claims off to other providers, deny claims and just generally make it difficult for doctors to get paid. MediRev uses highly trained claims specialists in a call center based in India to follow up on and collect those claims the doctor’s office manager typically ends up writing off. If the claims are 60 days old or less we typically collect 70-90% of all bills and we can even collect 50% or more of older claims. We charge the customer 15% of what we collect – raising revenue received from 45-55 cents on the dollar to 65-77 cents – after our fee.

4. How do I know I have a good business idea?

5. ID’s Breakthrough Innovation Model 5 User Criteria desirability

6. ID’s Breakthrough Innovation Model 6 Technical Criteria feasibility

7. ID’s Breakthrough Innovation Model 7 Business Criteria viability

8. ID’s Breakthrough Innovation Model 8 Entrepreneurial Criteria motivation

9. ID’s Breakthrough Innovation Model 9 User Criteria Entrepreneurial Criteria Business Criteria Technical Criteria

11. Need

12. Feasibility

13. Market

14. Competition

15. Economics

16. Execution

17. Personal

18. So, What Is the Right Score? Who knows? Entrepreneurs seek confidence – not certainty

19. Caveat Fundator

20. Top Six Industries for Startups Customer Businesses Consumers Retail trade 19.2% Professional/ technical services 9.3% Accommodations /food services 14.1% Finance, insurance, real estate 8.0% Arts/ entertainment 6.9% Source: Scott Shane, The Illusions of Entrepreneurship, 2008 Construction 6.6%

21. Four Fertile Underserved Industries Customer Businesses Consumers Manufacturing 4.1% Healthcare/ social assistance 4.3% Wholesale trade 2.2% Transportation/ warehousing 1.7% Source: Scott Shane, The Illusions of Entrepreneurship, 2008

22. What We See in the NVC Customer Inspiration Businesses Consumers Personal Interests Observed Market Need ? ? ? ?

23. Increasing Your Chances Customer Inspiration Businesses Consumers Personal Interests Observed Market Need ? ? ? ?

24. So, how do I know I have a good business idea? You won’t with certainty until you launch the company and it succeeds.

25. Thank you. Waverly Deutsch Clinical Professor of Entrepreneurship University of Chicago Booth School of Business waverly.deutsch@ChicagoBooth.edu 773-612-1188