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Tracking NWS Area Forecast Discussions to Study the Subjective Use of Wind and Temperature Profiler Data Douglas W. van de Kamp and Daphne M. Grant NOAA.

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Presentation on theme: "Tracking NWS Area Forecast Discussions to Study the Subjective Use of Wind and Temperature Profiler Data Douglas W. van de Kamp and Daphne M. Grant NOAA."— Presentation transcript:

1 Tracking NWS Area Forecast Discussions to Study the Subjective Use of Wind and Temperature Profiler Data Douglas W. van de Kamp and Daphne M. Grant NOAA Research-Forecast Systems Laboratory Boulder, Colorado www.profiler.noaa.gov 2005 AMS Conference – San Diego, CAProfiler Program Office 325 Broadway Boulder, CO 80305 303-497-6200 www.profiler.noaa.gov

2 NPN Wind Profiler NPN Wind & RASS 2005 AMS Conference – San Diego, CAProfiler Program Office 325 Broadway Boulder, CO 80305 303-497-6200 www.profiler.noaa.gov Locations of NOAA Profiler Network Sites

3 CAP Wind Profiler CAP Wind & RASS Locations of Cooperative Agency Profiler Sites 2005 AMS Conference – San Diego, CAProfiler Program Office 325 Broadway Boulder, CO 80305 303-497-6200 www.profiler.noaa.gov

4 NPN Wind Profiler NPN Wind & RASS NPN Wind Profiler NPN Wind & RASS CAP Wind Profiler CAP Wind & RASS Locations of all known Profilers in the Continental U.S., Canada and Mexico 2005 AMS Conference – San Diego, CAProfiler Program Office 325 Broadway Boulder, CO 80305 303-497-6200 www.profiler.noaa.gov

5 Locations of National Weather Service Forecast Offices 2005 AMS Conference – San Diego, CAProfiler Program Office 325 Broadway Boulder, CO 80305 303-497-6200 www.profiler.noaa.gov

6 "...FORECAST CONCERN THIS CYCLE CONTINUES TO BE TIMING OF PRECIP CHANCES ALONG WITH HIGH TEMPS... LATEST RADAR SHOWING MCS EDGING INTO SOUTHWEST PART OF CWA… TWO MCS'S IN PLAY WHEN SHIFT STARTED BUT NORTHERN ONE THAT WAS OVER SOUTHERN SDAK HAS WEAKENED AS PER WARMING IN SATELLITE IMAGERY… PROFILER NETWORK SHOWED SHORTWAVE POSITION IN WESTERN SDAK AND NEB AT 700 MB. STEERING WINDS AT MCCOOK...WHICH IS WHERE CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY ONGOING...ARE VERY LIGHT CONFIRMING SLOW MOVEMENT OF STORMS. COMPARED 500MB PROFILER WINDS WITH 06Z GFS AND IT LOOKS LIKE MODEL IS OVERDONE WITH STRENGTH OF 500 WAVE TO OUR IMMEDIATE WEST. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY AS… TIMING OF SHORTWAVES THEN BECOMES FOCUS THROUGH THE EARLY WEEKEND. MCS DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT LOOKS TO GIVE A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE...” AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NEBRASKA SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS 400 AM CDT FRI AUG 8 2003 2005 AMS Conference – San Diego, CAProfiler Program Office 325 Broadway Boulder, CO 80305 303-497-6200 www.profiler.noaa.gov

7 “UPDATE... COLD AND SNOWY WITH NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE FA. COASTAL FRONT IS JUST OFFSHORE EXCEPT IN SE NH WHERE IT HAS CREPT INLAND AND JUMPED TEMPS INTO THE LWR 30S. WILL BE UPDATING TO TOUCH UP THE FIRST PD. NO CHANGES FOR THE COASTAL WATERS. DISCUSSION... MODELS STILL POINTING TOWARD A SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER EVENT FOR THE FORECAST AREA...STARTING THIS EVENING AND LASTING INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF MONDAY...BEFORE WINDING DOWN MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. BOTTOM LINE...NO CHANGE IN THE WARNINGS FOR TONIGHT AND MONDAY. BASED ON THE WARM AIR ADVECTION TO OUR SOUTH (STRONG VEERING ON THE RUTGERS PROFILER IN NJ)...THE SNOW SHOULD FALL HEAVILY AT TIMES NOT LONG AFTER STARTING. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH 06Z OR SO. SNOWFALL RATES OF 2 OR 3 INCHES AN HOUR COULD DEVELOP IN THE STRONG WARMING. WHILE IT WON'T BE INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST...THUNDER AND LIGHTNING NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.” 2005 AMS Conference – San Diego, CAProfiler Program Office 325 Broadway Boulder, CO 80305 303-497-6200 www.profiler.noaa.gov AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY/PORTLAND MAINE SOUTHERN MAINE AND NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE 915 PM EST SUN DEC 14 2003

8 Amarillo Austin/San Antonio Baltimore/ Washington DC Binghamton Brownsville Charleston Cheyenne Chicago Corpus Christi Denver Des Moines Detroit Pontiac Dodge City Grand Forks El Paso-Santa Teresa Eureka Flagstaff Fort Worth Gaylord Goodland Grand Junction Grand Rapids Gray Green Bay Hanford Hastings Houston/Galveston Jackson Kansas City La Crosse Lake Charles Lincoln Little Rock Los Angeles Louisville Lubbock Marquette Medford Melbourne Miami Midland/Odessa Mount Holly Nashville New Orleans/Baton Rouge Norman North Platte Northern IN Omaha Paducah Portland Pueblo Quad Cities Raleigh Rapid City Reno Sacramento San Angelo San Francisco Seattle Shreveport Sioux Falls Springfield St. Louis Taunton Topeka Tulsa Twin Cities Wichita Wakefield Number of AFDs 1-20: 21-40: 41-60: 61-90: > 90 Tallahassee Milwaukee/ Sullivan Tucson Key West Albuquerque Locations of NWS Offices Identifying Use of Profiler Data in their Area Forecast Discussions, 6 January 2003 – 5 January 2004 2005 AMS Conference – San Diego, CAProfiler Program Office 325 Broadway Boulder, CO 80305 303-497-6200 www.profiler.noaa.gov

9 Categories of Profiler Data Usage Identified from the Area Forecast Discussions 2005 AMS Conference – San Diego, CAProfiler Program Office 325 Broadway Boulder, CO 80305 303-497-6200 www.profiler.noaa.gov

10 Profiler data mentioned in AFDs Jan. 6, 2003 - Jan. 5, 2004 25 20 15 10 5 0 6-Jan26-Mar 5-May14-Jun24-Jul2-Sep 12-Oct 21-Nov 5-Jan15-Feb Number of Times Profiler Data Mentioned/Day 2005 AMS Conference – San Diego, CAProfiler Program Office 325 Broadway Boulder, CO 80305 303-497-6200 www.profiler.noaa.gov Profiler

11 Profiler, RUC, & ACARS data mentioned in AFDs Jan. 6, 2003 - Jan. 5, 2004 Number of Times Data Type Mentioned/Day 25 20 15 10 5 0 6-Jan15-Feb26-Mar 5-May14-Jun24-Jul2-Sep 12-Oct 21-Nov 5-Jan 2005 AMS Conference – San Diego, CAProfiler Program Office 325 Broadway Boulder, CO 80305 303-497-6200 www.profiler.noaa.gov2005 AMS Conference – San Diego, CAProfiler Program Office 325 Broadway Boulder, CO 80305 303-497-6200 www.profiler.noaa.gov RUC Profiler ACARS

12 Summary Identified the use of wind and temperature profiler data in NWS Area Forecast Discussions Categorized the use of profiler data in forecaster’s decision making process Profiler data useful for general “situational awareness”, in addition to specific applications Data were found to be valuable and well integrated into routine operations at many NWS offices 2005 AMS Conference – San Diego, CAProfiler Program Office 325 Broadway Boulder, CO 80305 303-497-6200 www.profiler.noaa.gov2005 AMS Conference – San Diego, CAProfiler Program Office 325 Broadway Boulder, CO 80305 303-497-6200 www.profiler.noaa.gov


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