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1 The structural geology experts Midland Valley

2 The structural geology experts Midland Valley Are multiple structural interpretations better than one? Clare Bond 1, Euan Macrae 2, and Zoe Shipton 2 1 Midland Valley Exploration 2 University of Glasgow

3 The structural geology experts Midland Valley Multiple Interpretations......or a definitive answer? The conundrum - defining the uncertainty space of an interpretation whilst providing a model on which decisions can be made.

4 The structural geology experts Midland Valley Software solutions... Multiple Interpretations Scenario modelling – turbidite flows, geomechanical and fracture modelling and in our restoration tools. The “definitive answer” – working with a model Model morphing and updating - tools to easily update and modify models whilst fixing points of certainty....not all the answers?

5 The structural geology experts Midland Valley Changing a mindset Human Nature The ditherer and the decisive... Are you someone who draws dashed lines on your map and dare not ink it in? Or do you... Grab the pen and go for it, potentially regretting it later?

6 The structural geology experts Midland Valley Experience Knowledge and Experience should not be underestimated, but might be better expressed as confidence? Bond, Philo and Shipton (in review) International Journal of Science Education

7 The structural geology experts Midland Valley Expertise Experts and non-experts 23% 27% 35% Bond, et al. (2008) GSAToday

8 The structural geology experts Midland Valley Techniques Effective experts use lots of techniques. 100% 79% 67% 23% 18% 35% features sticks horizons annotations Evolutionary thought Descriptive writing

9 The structural geology experts Midland Valley Call yourself an expert? Effective experts used specific techniques –notably thoughts about the geological evolution. 35% 94% 44% 51% 45%37% 10% Evolutionary thought

10 The structural geology experts Midland Valley Everyone can be an expert? 27% 87% 37% 40% 7% 38% 30% non-experts Evolutionary thought

11 The structural geology experts Midland Valley Everyone can be effective by using multiple techniques to query the data and, applying specific validation techniques.

12 The structural geology experts Midland Valley More than one answer? Perhaps other solutions honour the data. If we had given the participants a choice of interpretations that included the ‘correct’ answer, would the percentage of correct concept choices have been significantly higher?

13 The structural geology experts Midland Valley Vör Survey: Multiple Interpretations Vör investigated how geologists choose the best interpretation for a seismic dataset when presented with a choice of plausible interpretations. 61 responses were collected. A seismic image from the Inner Moray Firth in the North Sea:

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16 The structural geology experts Midland Valley The following three slides contain some results: What model gives the best prediction of the geology?

17 The structural geology experts Midland Valley Model 5 was actually ranked as the most plausible, or the 2 nd most plausible 70% of the time! Rank the models in order of plausibility. The percentage of respondents who rated each model as being the most plausible:

18 The structural geology experts Midland Valley The percentage of respondents who rated each model as being the least plausible: Rank the models in order of plausibility.

19 The structural geology experts Midland Valley What was the main result of the Vör survey? Future work: Check the geometrical validity of Models 1-5. Why did most people choose Model 5? How can we ensure that people pick the “RIGHT” model? Vör showed that, given a choice of plausible models, the majority of interpreters choose the same model. i.e. Interpreters converged to the same model.

20 The structural geology experts Midland Valley The Freyja Project: quantifying how people make interpretations Please take part in the survey! Pens and information sheets outside.


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