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CHANGES IN FUTURE CONFLICT AND THE IMPLICATIONS OF NON-LETHAL WEAPONS John B. Alexander, Ph.D. Senior Fellow Joint Special Operations University PRINCIPLES.

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Presentation on theme: "CHANGES IN FUTURE CONFLICT AND THE IMPLICATIONS OF NON-LETHAL WEAPONS John B. Alexander, Ph.D. Senior Fellow Joint Special Operations University PRINCIPLES."— Presentation transcript:

1 CHANGES IN FUTURE CONFLICT AND THE IMPLICATIONS OF NON-LETHAL WEAPONS John B. Alexander, Ph.D. Senior Fellow Joint Special Operations University PRINCIPLES OF WAR CULMINATING SEMINAR Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory Arlington, Virginia 13 April 2005 FUTURE WAR: NLW in 21st Century Warfare St. Martin’s Press, 1999 WINNING THE WAR St. Martin’s Press July 2003 Contact: (702)

2 THE WORLD IS NOT A SAFER PLACE

3 THE NATURE OF WAR HAS CHANGED AT THE MOST FUNDAMENTAL LEVEL - DEFINITION THERE ARE WARS ON: POVERTY CANCER DRUGS WE HAVE LOST THE MEANING OF WAR

4 CURRENT CONFLICT - ASSUMPTIONS The Global War on Terror (GWOT) lacks specificity Two models of war – ours is wrong Competing values prevents us from winning World War X (WW X) has begun Clash of civilizations WW X is religious We do not understand the threat

5 TWO MODELS OF WAR PHILOSOPHICAL (JIHAD) V NATION-STATE OURS MAY BE ANACHRONISTIC

6 THE PROBLEM OF COMPETING VALUES GLOBAL WAR ON TERROR WAR ON DRUGS WE ARE UNWILLING TO DO WHAT IS NEEDED TO WIN SPENT $0.5T ROI = 0

7 DICHOTOMIES OF FUTURE CONFLICT Physical Deterrence and Defeat Philosophical Conversion/Subjugation

8 Fallujah - America's hollow victory IS PERCEPTION REALITY??? SHUJAAT Chemical weapons lab found in Fallujah WE ARE LOSING THIS WAR 25 Nov 04

9 WHAT DO THEY SEE Israeli Terrorism Woman Searched Israeli AssassinationBoys Torment Woman

10 TYPES OF FUTURE WARS Overt War Enduring Freedom Iraqi Freedom Covert War Afghanistan Central America Africa Outsourced War Executive Outcomes International Security Firms

11 KEY ISSUES FOR FUTURE CONFLICT DEVOLUTION OF NATION-STATE STATUS Redefining America POPULATION GROWTH RATE OF THIRD WORLD Near exponential vs impact of famine and disease POLITICALIZATION OF EDUCATIONAL SYSTEMS Secular vs Religious Education

12 GLOBAL ECOSYSTEM INSTABILITY Global Warming – Changing Weather – Water PHILOSOPHICAL INCOMPATIBILITIES Fundamentalism (predominantly Islamic) vs the world UNSUSTAINABLE LEGAL CONSTRAINTS Anachronistic – Ponderous - Incongruent KEY ISSUES CONTINUED

13 CONUNDRUMS OF CONFLICT Physical force will not resolve conflict Philosophical differences irreconcilable Political correctness reigns Terrorism treated as street crime Unwillingness to kill viewed as weakness What to do with prisoners in war without end Anachronistic treaties as rule of law Retroactive consideration/application of law Responsibility pushed to lowest common denominator War in realtime on television

14 WINNING CONUNDRUM SECURITY VS PERSONAL RIGHTS WHEN THREATENED WE WILL CHOOSE SECURITY

15 NLWS ARE COMING OF AGE BUT THE NAYSAYERS PERSIST

16 SEVEN DEADLY SINS OF NON-LETHAL WEAPONS - NLWs make it easier to initiate war - NLWs will start a new arms race - NLWs may be used as instruments of torture - NLWs will result in some deaths and serious injuries - NLWs used as a precursor and easier to kill opponents - NLWs will be used to suppress lawful dissent - NLWs do not have sufficient data to support their use

17 SEVEN DEADLY SINS OF NON-LETHAL WEAPONS - NLWs make it easier to initiate war - NLWs will start a new arms race - NLWs may be used as instruments of torture - NLWs will result in some deaths and serious injuries - NLWs used as a precursor and easier to kill opponents - NLWs will be used to suppress lawful dissent - NLWs do not have sufficient data to support their use

18 A DECADE OF CONFLICT AFGHANISTAN

19 SEVEN DEADLY SINS OF NON-LETHAL WEAPONS - NLWs make it easier to initiate war - NLWs will start a new arms race - NLWs may be used as instruments of torture - NLWs will result in some deaths and serious injuries - NLWs used as a precursor and easier to kill opponents - NLWs will be used to suppress lawful dissent - NLWs do not have sufficient data to support their use

20 WHAT NEW ARMS RACE??? $250M ea $9B $4B ea/ $22B Life Cycle 10 Tanks = all NLWs WAR $5B/Mo WORLD NLW $50M/Yr Non-Lethal Weapons are 0.012% of US DOD Budget

21 SEVEN DEADLY SINS OF NON-LETHAL WEAPONS - NLWs make it easier to initiate war - NLWs will start a new arms race - NLWs may be used as instruments of torture - NLWs will result in some deaths and serious injuries - NLWs used as a precursor and easier to kill opponents - NLWs will be used to suppress lawful dissent - NLWs do not have sufficient data to support their use

22 NLWS AND TORTURE Monk with torture devices used by Chinese Victoria with instruments of torture TORTURE IS AN ISSUE OF HUMAN INTENT- NOT DEVICES

23 SEVEN DEADLY SINS OF NON-LETHAL WEAPONS - NLWs make it easier to initiate war - NLWs will start a new arms race - NLWs may be used as instruments of torture - NLWs will result in some deaths and serious injuries - NLWs used as a precursor and easier to kill opponents - NLWs will be used to suppress lawful dissent - NLWs do not have sufficient data to support their use

24 NLW DEATHS AND INJURIES More than 110 deaths of children under 6 17 deaths with 125,000 rounds fired Probability of fatality Compared to what???? THE ISSUE IS TRAINING AND SUPERVISION

25 SEVEN DEADLY SINS OF NON-LETHAL WEAPONS - NLWs make it easier to initiate war - NLWs will start a new arms race - NLWs may be used as instruments of torture - NLWs will result in some deaths and serious injuries - NLWs used as a precursor and easier to kill opponents - NLWs will be used to suppress lawful dissent - NLWs do not have sufficient data to support their use

26 NAILING A FOOT TO THE FLOOR MOSCOW THEATER A MATTER OF CHOICE

27 INCAPACITATING AGENTS WHAT YOU DID READ: - NERVE GAS KILLED RUSSIAN HOSTAGES (UPI) - DEADLY END TO MOSCOW SIEGE SHOWS DANGERS OF INCAPACITATING CHEMICALS (AP) - CONCERN ARISES OVER TYPE OF GAS USED BY MOSCOW (WASH POST) - USE OF GAS RISKS OTHERS FOLLOWING SUIT (SF CHRONICLE) WHAT YOU SHOULD HAVE READ: HUNDREDS SAVED BY USE OF INCAPACITATING AGENT WOULD YOU SET TODAY’S SPEED LIMITS BASED ON AUTOMOBILE TECHNOLGY OF 1900???

28 SEVEN DEADLY SINS OF NON-LETHAL WEAPONS - NLWs make it easier to initiate war - NLWs will start a new arms race - NLWs may be used as instruments of torture - NLWs will result in some deaths and serious injuries - NLWs used as a precursor and easier to kill opponents - NLWs will be used to suppress lawful dissent - NLWs do not have sufficient data to support their use

29 SUPPRESSING DISSENT Mexico City Nepal Brazil Watts, CA Madrid

30 SEVEN DEADLY SINS OF NON-LETHAL WEAPONS - NLWs make it easier to initiate war - NLWs will start a new arms race - NLWs may be used as instruments of torture - NLWs will result in some deaths and serious injuries - NLWs used as a precursor and easier to kill opponents - NLWs will be used to suppress lawful dissent - NLWs do not have sufficient data to support their use

31 HOW GOOD IS GOOD ENOUGH? Effectiveness (Skin Pain) Permanent Injury (Eye Trauma) Serious Injury Dose Risk of Injury (%) Effectiveness Non-Lethality Index (Startle)

32 BUT WHAT ABOUT PEOPLE WHO: HAVE PACEMAKERS? EXTREME HEART CONDITIONS? ARE ASTHMATIC? ARE VERY OLD? ARE BLIND, DEAF MIDGETS WITH PARKINSON’S ? “Life is tough; it’s tougher when you’re stupid.” John Wayne as SGT John Stryker Sands of Iwo Jima

33 PERCEPTION THE PROBLEM OF DIFFERING WORLD VIEWS AIN’T IT AWFUL???

34 THE WORLD AS SEEN BY PHILOSOPHICAL GROUPS

35 THE WORLD AS IT IS

36 RECONSIDERATION OF ISSUES WHAT PROBLEM ARE YOU SOLVING? COMPLAINTS BASED ON EMOTION VS. FACTS BLAME TECHNOLOGY FOR HUMAN PROBLEMS CHEMICAL & BIOLOGICAL AGENTS HAVE PEACEFUL PURPOSES MORE OPTIONS ARE PREFERABLE TO LESS THE RESULTS ARE IN: NLWS ARE NOT A ROAD TO HELL THE PRIMARY QUESTION SHOULD BE: COMPARED TO WHAT?

37 “There are two things that are infinite…..the universe and human stupidity. And I’m not sure about the former.”

38 COMING SOON TO A COMMUNITY NEAR YOU NLWS: NOW MORE THAN EVER

39 FUTURE BATTLEGROUNDS MADRID PRAGUE BERLIN PARIS MOSCOW AND MANY OTHERS

40 THE CHALLENGE Bali 12 Oct killed Jakarta 9 Sept killed Kathmandu 1 Sep 04 2 killed Madrid 3 Mar killed Kabul 29 Aug 04 7 killed

41 NOW IT’S YOUR KIDS IN THE SCHOOL: WHAT WEAPONS DO YOU WANT POLICE TO USE??


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