Presentation is loading. Please wait.

Presentation is loading. Please wait.

Who Has the Power in the EU? Jason M. Barr Department of Economics Rutgers University, Newark March 15, 2004.

Similar presentations


Presentation on theme: "Who Has the Power in the EU? Jason M. Barr Department of Economics Rutgers University, Newark March 15, 2004."— Presentation transcript:

1 Who Has the Power in the EU? Jason M. Barr Department of Economics Rutgers University, Newark March 15, 2004

2 Outline of Talk EU Government structure EU member and acceding countries Theory of Voting Power Measuring power in the EU EU 15 EU 27 ‘Post-nice’ EU 27 ‘Giscard’ Why Spain and Poland oppose Giscard’s Proposal

3 The EU Government European Parliament European Parliament MEPs Directly Elected by citizensMEPs Directly Elected by citizens Legislative BranchLegislative Branch EU Council EU Council Ministers from member governmentsMinisters from member governments Legislative BranchLegislative Branch EU Commission EU Commission Appointed commissionersAppointed commissioners Agenda SetterAgenda Setter

4 EU Council EU’s main decision making body EU’s main decision making body Represents member governments Represents member governments Members are one minister from each member’s national government Members are one minister from each member’s national government Rotating presidency every 6 months Rotating presidency every 6 months Most issues passed by qualified majority Most issues passed by qualified majority

5 EU Commission Represents EU as a whole Proposes legislation (sets legislative agenda) and enforces EU laws Currently 20 members, after May 1, 1 one commissioner per country.

6 EU Meetings Highlights Nice Summit, Dec Nice Summit, Dec Treaty of Nice: voting weights for Council for EU 27Treaty of Nice: voting weights for Council for EU 27 Laeken Summit, Dec Laeken Summit, Dec Launched Constitutional convention for needed institutional reformsLaunched Constitutional convention for needed institutional reforms Constitutional Convention, July 2003 Constitutional Convention, July 2003 Created draft for ratification by nationsCreated draft for ratification by nations Chaired by Valery Giscard d’EstaingChaired by Valery Giscard d’Estaing ICG in Brussels, Dec ICG in Brussels, Dec Failed to research Constitutional agreementFailed to research Constitutional agreement

7 EU Nations Austria Austria Belgium Belgium Denmark Denmark France France Finland Finland Germany Germany Greece Greece Ireland Ireland Italy Italy Luxembourg Luxembourg Netherlands Netherlands Portugal Portugal Spain Spain Sweden Sweden United Kingdom United Kingdom Bulgaria (2007) Bulgaria (2007) Cyprus (5/1/04) Cyprus (5/1/04) Czech Rep. (5/1/04) Czech Rep. (5/1/04) Estonia (5/1/04) Estonia (5/1/04) Hungary (5/1/04) Hungary (5/1/04) Latvia (5/1/04) Latvia (5/1/04) Lithuania (5/1/04) Lithuania (5/1/04) Malta (5/1/04) Malta (5/1/04) Poland (5/1/04) Poland (5/1/04) Romania (2007) Romania (2007) Slovakia (5/1/04) Slovakia (5/1/04) Slovenia (5/1/04) Slovenia (5/1/04) Turkey(na) Turkey(na) Current Members Acceding Countries (date of membership)

8 Research Question How do  number of votes per country  majority threshold levels  preferences affect power of countries within the Council?

9 “The aim of the new EU constitution is to produce a lasting settlement which could endure up to 50 years, as opposed to the three years of the Nice treaty. Academics have been poring over the new voting solutions being proposed to see who will be the winners, and who the losers, in any deal.” - George Parker, journalist, 11/19/03

10 Theory of Voting Power Views countries as ‘players’ in a cooperative game. Views countries as ‘players’ in a cooperative game. Views legislature as a type of abstract system: players form coalitions to pass a bill. Views legislature as a type of abstract system: players form coalitions to pass a bill. Power is a function of a country’s likelihood of being ‘pivotal’ member of a coalition. Power is a function of a country’s likelihood of being ‘pivotal’ member of a coalition.

11 Measures of Power without preferences Shapley Value (SV) Shapley Value (SV) SV(i)= (# times i isSV(i)= (# times i is pivotal) (# orderings of voters) (# orderings of voters) Banzhaf Index (BI) Banzhaf Index (BI) BI(i)= (# of times i is pivotal where order before i not relevant )BI(i)= (# of times i is pivotal where order before i not relevant ) (#coalitions with i) (#coalitions with i) Normalized Banzhaf Index (NBI) Normalized Banzhaf Index (NBI) BI adjusted so sum of BI’s=1.BI adjusted so sum of BI’s=1.

12 Example 1: Power without preferences Three players Three players Player 1 has 49% of votes. Player 1 has 49% of votes. Player 2 has 48% of votes. Player 2 has 48% of votes. Player 3 has 3% of votes. Player 3 has 3% of votes. 51% majority needed to pass. 51% majority needed to pass. Who has the most power?

13 Answer They have equal power. Since nothing can pass without at least two players joining together.  Having only 3% of the votes is not indicative of actual power.

14 Example 2: Power without preferences 3 countries: 4, 2, 1 votes 3 countries: 4, 2, 1 votes 5 votes needed to pass 5 votes needed to pass Possible combinations: Possible combinations: {4,2,1}, {4,1,2}{4,2,1}, {4,1,2} {2,1,4}, {2,4,1}{2,1,4}, {2,4,1} {1,2,4}, {1,4,2}{1,2,4}, {1,4,2} Shapley Values:{4/6,1/6,1/6} Shapley Values:{4/6,1/6,1/6}

15 Example cont. WWWWinning coalitions: {1,4}, {2,4},{_,_,4} {4,2} {4,1} BBBBanzhaf Values: {3/4,1/4,1/4} NNNNBIs: {3/5,1/5,1/5}

16 Shapley-Owen Spatial Value If preferences are known we can use them to help calculate likelihood of joining coalitions. If preferences are known we can use them to help calculate likelihood of joining coalitions. Shapley Owen (SO) Spatial Value is the probability of a country being pivotal, given preferences. Shapley Owen (SO) Spatial Value is the probability of a country being pivotal, given preferences.

17 Intuition Simple majority: indifferent countries most powerful, cet. par. Simple majority: indifferent countries most powerful, cet. par. Unanimity: Most ‘con’ country is most powerful. Unanimity: Most ‘con’ country is most powerful.

18 Another Example 5 countries Every country has 1 vote 3 votes needed to pass a bill Who has the power?

19 Now Preferences Matter Let’s say 5 countries can be ranked from 1 to 5: Let’s say 5 countries can be ranked from 1 to 5: 1 is most con1 is most con 3 is neutral3 is neutral 5 is most pro5 is most pro Most likely coalition: {5,4,3} Most likely coalition: {5,4,3}  3 is most powerful  3 is most powerful

20 EU15 Votes – “PreNice” Until May 1, 2004 CountriesVotes Germany, France, Italy, and the UK 10 Spain8 Belgium, Greece, Netherlands, Portugal 5 Austria, Sweden 4 Denmark, Ireland, Finland 3 Luxembourg2 Total87 Qualified Majority = 62 votes

21 EU 15: Votes and Population

22 EU 27 Votes - ‘Post Nice’ CountryVotes Ger, Fra, Ita, UK 29 Spa, Pol 27 Romania13 Netherlands13 Belg, Cze, Gree, Hung, Port 12 Aus, Swe, Bulg 10 Den, Ire, Lith, Slova, Fin 7 Cyp, Est, Lat, Lux, Slov 4 Malta3 Total345

23 EU 27: Votes and Population Spain, Poland

24 EU 27 Qualified Majority 255 votes out of 345=74% A majority of member states approve Any member state can ask for confirmation that the decision represents 62% of EU’s total population

25 Giscard’s Proposal Nice agreement viewed as too ‘decentralized’ Nice agreement viewed as too ‘decentralized’ Small countries have more power to block bills they don’t like Small countries have more power to block bills they don’t like Giscard’s plan attempts: Giscard’s plan attempts: Centralize power in hands of big 4Centralize power in hands of big 4 Preserve democratic foundationsPreserve democratic foundations Simplify rulesSimplify rules

26 EU 27 – ‘Giscard’ Scenario CountryVotes Germany 82,193 UK 59,832 France 59,521 Italy 57,844 Spain 39,490 Poland 38,649 Romania 22,443 Netherlands 15,983 Greece 10,565 Czech Rep 10,272 Belgium 10,262 Hungary 10,024 Portugal 10,023 CountryVotes Sweden 8,883 Bulgaria 8,170 Austria 8,121 Slovakia 5,401 Denmark 5,349 Finland 5,181 Ireland 3,820 Lithuania 3,696 Latvia 2,417 Slovenia 1,989 Estonia 1,436 Cyprus 671 Luxembourg 441 Malta 390

27 ‘Giscard’ Qualified Majority At least 14 out of 27 countries vote yes and 60% of population (289,840 votes) votes yes

28 ''For each of the following areas, do you think that decisions should be made by the (NATIONALITY) government, or made jointly within the EU?'' Eurobarometer ''For each of the following areas, do you think that decisions should be made by the (NATIONALITY) government, or made jointly within the EU?'' 1. Defense 2. Protecting Environment 3. Currency 4. Humanitarian Aid 5. Health and Social Welfare 6. Rules for media 7. Fighting poverty 8. Fighting unemployment 9. Agriculture Policy 10. Economic aid 11. Education 12. Science research 13. EU info. dissemination 14. Non-EU foreign policy 15. Cultural policy 16. Immigration 17. Rules for political asylum 18. Fighting organized crime 19. Accepting refugees 20. Police 21. Justice 22. Juvenile crime prevention 23. Urban crime prevention 24. Fighting drugs 25. Fighting human exploitation 26. Fighting terrorism

29 EU 15 Preferences

30 EU 27: Preferences

31 EU 15 Pre-Nice: Measures of Power CountryVotesSVNBI S-O Spatial Germany Portugal Spain France Austria Belgium Netherlands Ireland UK Sweden Greece Italy Finland Luxembourg Denmark

32 EU 27 ‘Post-Nice’ EU 27 Nice Proposal CountryVotesS-SNBI S-O Spatial Czech Rep France Germany Spain Greece Bulgaria Netherlands Lithuania Italy Poland Belgium Romania Portugal Slovakia

33 EU 27 Post Nice cont CountryVotesSVNBI S-O Spatial Hungary Ireland Latvia Denmark Sweden UK Cyprus Austria Finland Slovenia Luxembourg Malta Estonia

34 With Presences: Votes are Poor Measures of Power Post Nice EU 27

35 EU 27 – ‘Giscard’ CountryVotesS-SNBI S-O Spatial Austria 8, Belgium 10, Bulgaria 8, Cyprus Czech Rep 10, Denmark 5, Estonia 1, Finland 5, France 59, Germany 82, Greece 10, Hungary 10, Ireland 3, Italy 57,

36 EU 27 – ‘Giscard’ cont CountryVotesSVNBI S-O Spatial Latvia 2, Lithuania 3, Luxembourg Malta Netherlands 15, Poland 38, Portugal 10, Romania 22, Slovakia 5, Slovenia 1, Spain 39, Sweden 8, UK 59,

37 Votes and Power: Again little relationship Giscard EU 27

38 Why has Spain and Poland Opposed Giscard’s Proposal? Question

39 Answer Nice assigns them ‘big boy’ status Nice assigns them ‘big boy’ status Gives them more ‘blocking power’ Gives them more ‘blocking power’But… How does S-O power change?

40 Power Comparisons for Spain and Poland SpainPoland Nice EU 27GiscardNice EU 27Giscard Vote share7.8%8.2% 8.0% SV8.0%7.3%8.0%7.1% NBI7.4%6.4%7.4%6.3% S-O Spatial8.9%7.0%3.5%0.1%

41 Conclusions France-German power axis due to similarity of preferences and population size. France-German power axis due to similarity of preferences and population size. ‘Euroskeptics’ and ‘Euroenthusiasts’ lose out. ‘Euroskeptics’ and ‘Euroenthusiasts’ lose out. Nice arrangement probably not a good idea for EU. Nice arrangement probably not a good idea for EU.


Download ppt "Who Has the Power in the EU? Jason M. Barr Department of Economics Rutgers University, Newark March 15, 2004."

Similar presentations


Ads by Google