Rock-falls/avalanches <1 km runout Block-and-Ash Flows (BAF) Can be 15 km runout What happens when domes fall down? Photos: G. Lube
Merapi volcano – June 2006 Twin brother of Mt Taranaki Erupting sporadically since 1994 >150 deaths June 2006, 20,000 evacuated, 2 deaths “minor eruption” evidence of it may never be recorded in the geologic record Aster Image
>700 o C “block-and-ash flows” Photos – T. Wilson
Original Channel Fill >1 year later The aftermath – rain-generated lahars
Conclusions – next eruption at Mt Taranaki We are in an unusually long (although not unprecedented) lull in activity The next eruption could take one of three possible general forms: 1.Large explosive pumice eruption (last one AD1655) – not likely 2.Small explosive pumice eruption 3.Lava dome eruption Both likely types of eruption will begin with collapses from the summit area – intrusion of magma (oversteepening, earthquakes), and vent clearing Both types of eruption could herald a period of more frequent eruptions to follow A lava-dome eruption could continue for many years/decades
High Low Hazard Zone 1:300yrs 1x10 6 m 3 Risk of inundation Anticipated hazards for the start of the “next one” Image: J.N. Procter
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