Presentation on theme: "1 Indonesia – The Trillion Dollar Economy James Castle Kuta, Bali 1 February 2013."— Presentation transcript:
1 Indonesia – The Trillion Dollar Economy James Castle Kuta, Bali 1 February 2013
2 Today’s Talk CA- Background - The Long View A Snapshot of Today The Impact of the Global Crisis The Economy Social Conditions Politics Some Questions from You Conclusions
3 Some Solid Fundamentals CA- Indonesia’s macro-economic management over the past decade has been very good. Conservative fiscal management, lower tax rates and better tax collection have generally kept the country’s annual budget deficits below 2% of GDP and reduced government debt to around 25% of GDP from over 100% in the aftermath of the Asian financial crisis just over a decade ago. This has helped keep the currency stable and interest rates relatively low on an historic basis. This, in turn, has enabled Indonesian business to maximize the benefits that strong global commodity markets have offered and brought annual investment levels back from well under 20% of GDP to over 30%.
4 … and let us not forget CA- Some Accomplishments - - Enhancing social cohesion and political stability with… The establishment of a viable democracy that has conducted three successful national elections and literally thousands of local elections that were free and fair The peaceful and voluntary removal of the military from a direct role in political life A vibrant free press
5 Plus Some Core Strengths CA- Indonesia’s current impressive economic progress is a commodity export – domestic consumption story It is the world’s largest exporter of palm oil and the second largest exporter of thermal coal, tin and cocoa. It has 3.5 billion barrels of proven oil reserves and over 110 trillion cubic feet of natural gas reserves Young population – over 50% of Indonesia’s 240 million people are under the age of 29 and Indonesia should become a trillion dollar economy by 2014
6 Indonesia Today - McKinsey CA- 16 th largest economy in the world 45 million members of the Consuming Class 53% of population in cities, producing 74% of GDP 55 million skilled works $0.5 trillion market opportunity in consumer services, agriculture and fisheries, resources, and education McKinsey Global Institute: The Archipelago Economy: Unleashing Indonesia’s Potential; Sept 2012
7 Indonesia in 2030 - McKinsey CA- 7th largest economy in the world 135 million members of the consuming class 71% of population in cities producing 86% of GDP 113 million skilled workers needed $1.8 trillion market opportunity in consumer services, agriculture and fisheries, resources, and education McKinsey Global Institute: The Archipelago Economy: Unleashing Indonesia’s Potential; Sept 2012
8 Back to the Present: CA- Persistent global uncertainty Falling commodity prices Ballooning fuel subsidy Growing current account deficit Merchandise trade deficit Weaker Rupiah Slower growth 2012 - A Tough Year. 2013 More of the Same
9 Why S&P said “No” CA- Positives Low central govt deficit Declining public debt burden Strengthening external liquidity Resilient economic performance in global downturn Constraints Policy slippage: failure to reduce fuel, electricity subsidies; questionable industrial and trade policies Structural & Institutional impediments to higher growth Shallow domestic capital markets Under-spending capital budget; Implementation risk on infrastructure and energy development
10 Inflation down Per capita income up Numbers of unemployed & those living below the poverty line down Consumer credit availability at highest levels ever Income redistribution via regional autonomy Social Indicators Still Very Positive
11 Governance/ Business Environment / Competitiveness CA- Indonesia ranked 50 th this year compared to 46 th in 2011-112 survey Other ASEAN rankings: Singapore 2 nd ; Malaysia 25 th ; Thailand 38 th ; Philippines 65 th ; Vietnam 75 th BRICs: China 29 th; India 59 th ; Brazil 48 th ; Russia 67 th MISTs: Mexico 53 rd; South Korea 19 th; Turkey 43 rd MIST countries are linked by rising consumer spending Some slippage over the past year WEF: Global Competitiveness Index (2012-13)
12 Infrastructure Challenges - National CA- Rail 54% – Accounts for less than 10% of passenger and less than 1% of freight transport. Jakarta is the largest city in the world without intra-city rail Roads 61% - 35% of district roads and 10% of national roads are classified as “Heavily Damaged” Ports 77% Indonesia has only 2 international hub ports Merak Crossing -12 days Source: McKinsey
13 Infrastructure Challenges - Jakarta CA- Population of Greater Jakarta (Jabodetabek) will grow from 24 million today to over 32 million in 2020 8.2 million more people will require over 2 million additional housing units with 47% more commuting trips Worsening public health due to increasing levels of air and water pollution – 377m m3 more sewage and 17m m3 of waste generated Source: McKinsey
14 Consequences of Sub- Optimal Growth CA- Per Capita GDP 2012 Rp 35,500,000 Ave Growth Rate6.00%8.00% Population Growth1.04% Per Capita GDP 202052,000,000 60,500,000 -14% Per Capita GDP 203084,000,000 118,000,000 -29% What does slower growth mean to young Indonesians? If you are 20 years old today, when you are 38, instead of earning Rp 118 million, you will be earning only Rp 84 million.
15 Questions from the participants (1) CA- What might foreign investors expect in the years ahead? How will Indonesia fare within the region and the world? Forecasts on the Indonesian economy, strengths and possible weaknesses What might foreign investors expect in the years ahead? Since hotels depend on the health of the economies of source markets – how goes Indonesia, Australia, Singapore, Malaysia, Japan, Europe and America? Fuel and Power prices? Will Indonesia abolish subsidies?
16 Questions from the participants (2) CA- How will that impact buying power of the Indonesian market (now 55% of Bali arrivals) and the cost of doing business (e.g. PLN)? The Indonesian national debt and the need for revenue. What will happen on taxes, subsidies, etc? Will Indonesia meet the tremendous demands for infrastructure development to stay competitive in the region? Indonesian tourism promotional budgets among the lowest in ASEAN? Is this likely to change?
17 Questions from the participants (3) CA- How realistic are expectations in some quarters for changes in property ownership rules for foreigners and foreign corporations? How goes to government’s efforts to eradicate corruption? How will AFTA potentially effect the way hotels in Indonesia do business? More foreign staff? Exodus of talent? If Minister Pangestu is chosen to head the WTO, what might that mean to Indonesia? Coming elections: Smooth or rough sailing?
18 Conclusions CA- Advantages Stable Politics Strong Macroeconomic Fundamentals Established track record of prudent fiscal mgmt Favorable Demographics: 30% population is 15< years old Valuable commodities Strong investor interest Disadvantages/Challenges Weak rule of law/governance Infrastructure bottlenecks Inefficient govt bureaucracy Persistent inflation Human capital/skills shortages Lack of political will to confront subsidies and creeping economic nationalism Source: Adapted and modified from IMF Article IV summary
19 Prospects for Prosperity CA- Over the past five years, Indonesia has shown that it has the domestic strength to continue to prosper despite the worst peacetime global financial climate in nearly a century. Indonesia’s momentum should carry it forward for the next several years. But, if not addressed, policy failures in vital sectors will keep growth at sub-optimal levels.
20 Prospects for Prosperity CA- The risks today – weak global economy, major leadership changes in 2014 – are the greatest since 2001 when Indonesia’s first democratically elected president was impeached less than two years into his term Electioneering, over-confidence and protectionist trade and investment policies are making the country much more vulnerable to the inevitable commodity downturn than it needs to be.
21 Prospects for Prosperity CA- Nevertheless, if the 2014 election goes smoothly (as we think it will) and infrastructure investment continues to increase (very likely as the election draws closer)... ... Indonesia should be able to maintain its position as one of fastest-growing G-20 economies for some time – and become a trillion dollar economy by 2014.