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Complex Dynamic Cretaceous Ecosystem Modeling Bill Yu Computer Systems Lab 2010.

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Presentation on theme: "Complex Dynamic Cretaceous Ecosystem Modeling Bill Yu Computer Systems Lab 2010."— Presentation transcript:

1 Complex Dynamic Cretaceous Ecosystem Modeling Bill Yu Computer Systems Lab 2010

2 Purpose The purpose of my research project is to create a simulation of a non- static, many-variable ecosystem According to user preferences, many desired ecosystem simulations will be able to be run In my case, I am focusing limiting the species to the dinosaurs of the late Cretaceous era

3 Subject / Goals The scope of my project will include hypothetical situations, which will be applicable to real-life, and possibly a real-world model Based on known facts of the dinosaurs, the user will be able to input unknown or hypothetical facts about dinosaurs and thus create a possible simulation of what could have happened on our Earth in the Cretaceous era

4 Expected Results I will validate success by the accuracy as represented by the common behavior of real world ecosystems For example, if there are many carnivores preying on a few herbivores, the expected results in sequence would be: 1 – Herbivores are near extinction / are extinct. 2 – Carnivores begin to die out. 3 – Grass regrows fully.

5 Other Research Cellular Automata Model of Macroevolution: The constant evolution of a biomass of a multi-species system A Jump-Growth Model for Predator-Prey Dynamics: Derivation and application to marine ecosystems: evolution to catch prey, equation to calculate populations Predator-Prey Model: Linear rate (Lotka-Volterra), group immunity (Kermack-McKendrick), constant uptake (Jacob- Monod), carrying maximum capacity (Logistic), self-predation (Ricker's)

6 Other Research Biomechanics of Running Indicates Endothermy in Bipedal Dinosaurs: Energy-size ratio, warm-blooded / endothermic dinosaurs Fossil Record of Predation in Dinosaurs: Predatory features, consumption records, chemical analyses What killed the Dinosaurs? A Great Mystery: Exploring the K-T extinction theory and the surrounding events

7 Usage Load the program Use sliders Toggle on/off desired functions Hit 'Setup' 'Step' for 1 iteration, 'Go' for continuous (adjusted by speed bar at the top)


9 Procedures / Methods Using NetLogo Accomplishing by building top-down, building simple, then advancing to more advanced functions BehaviorSpace for data storage

10 Timeline Q1 : Basics, predator-prey, herbivore-producer, basic predation, modeling Q2 : Dinosaur focus, narrowed late Cretaceous, predation range, additional 2 species, reproduction algorithm, prey selection algorithm, movement algorithm Q3 : Another producer, implemented more than one producer, water spots, geological dead zones, natural disasters, and eggs.

11 Project Testing / Problems Project testing simply consists of running the program and comparing it to the expected results, and finding inconsistencies with real-life dinosaur simulation possibilities and expected ecosystem results The NetLogo program runs almost exclusively to working programs – if it's incomplete, it can not run, instead giving an error

12 Algorithms Grass regrowth Generic consumption Conflict sequence Predation range Reproduction Prey selection Natural disaster Eggs Unique encounters Extinction Time Growth (working)

13 Conclusion – In Hindsight NetLogo problems Better GUI More species / less fancy

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