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Presentation on theme: "FORECASTING AUSTRALIA’S TOURISM FUTURE"— Presentation transcript:

SATIC Tourism Conference By Dr Leo Jago Chief Economist & GM 29 May 2014

2 Presentation Overview
Tourism – the state of play Tourism – forecasts Megatrends (CSIRO Futures) Summary of key tourism drivers

3 Global Tourism Statistics (UNWTO)
International tourism arrivals in 2013 : 1.1 billion Annual growth of 4% expected to continue Predicted arrivals for 2030 of 1.8 billion Tourism export earnings in 2012 : USD 1.3 trillion Accounted for 9% global GDP in 2012 Generated 9% of total employment in 2012

4 Tourism’s Economic Significance (2012-13)
Australia South Australia Direct tourism GDP $24.2 billion (2.8% of total GDP) $2.2 billion (2.3% of total GDP) Tourism exports $27 billion (8.9% of total exports) $1.1 billion (4% of total exports) Direct employment 543,600 jobs (4.7% of total employment) 31,000 jobs (3.8% of total employment) Businesses 280,083

5 Australian Tourism Figures (YE Dec 2013)
Visitors (millions) Nights (millions) Spend (billions) International 5.9 216.7 $28.9 Domestic Overnight 75.8 282.7 $51.5 Domestic Day Trip 164.3 - $18.3 Total $98.7

6 Inbound Versus Outbound Visitors

7 South Australian Tourism Figures (YE Dec 2013)
Visitors (millions) Nights (millions) Spend (billions) International 0.4 10.5 0.7* Domestic Overnight 5.2 19.5 $3.2 Domestic Day Trip 11.0 - $1.2 Total $5.1* * Excludes pre-paid expenses

8 Visitor Nights in South Australia

9 Visitor Spend in South Australia

10 International Arrivals to Australia in 2013

11 Source of International Visitors to South Australia

12 Source of International Visitors
Nationality South Australia % Australia United Kingdom 17.2* 10.5 New Zealand 18.4* USA 8.6 8.0 Germany 7.8* 2.8 China 7.2 11.3* Malaysia 4.2 France 4.1* 1.8 Canada 3.5 2.1 Italy 3.1 1.1

13 International Visitor Activities

14 International Visitor Dispersal
Nights outside capital cities, GC & TNQ YE December 2013 Nationality Visitors % Nights China 9 6 Other Asia 17 13 North America 36 25 Europe 48 Total 27 18

15 Source of Interstate Visitors to South Australia
Origin % Victoria 42.6 NSW 26.6 Queensland 13.2 Western Australia 8.3 Northern Territory 5.0 ACT 2.2 Tasmania 1.9

16 Purpose of Visiting South Australia (All Visitors)

17 Increasing Visitors to South Australia from UK, US & Europe
53% could name a location in SA unprompted Adelaide 49% Kangaroo Island 10% Barossa 5% Respondents believed SA: Has unique attractions Just seems too far away Is vast and empty compared to other places in Australia

18 Main Reason for not Selecting South Australia in Planning the Trip
Not enough time in trip to include Too expensive Other destinations more appealing Plan to visit in the future

19 China Forecast to Remain Australia’s Top Expenditure Market

20 Key Influences on Chinese Visitor Satisfaction
Attractions, especially nature based Value for money Good shopping Good quality food, Western and Chinese Chinese language services Source: Tourism Research Australia’s: Chinese Visitor Satisfaction Research January 2014 The key drivers in creating a positive travel experience for the Chinese visitor are attractions, value for money, good shopping and having a nature-based experience that is better than expected. Strategies should be developed to maintain and enhance these key elements of a trip to Australia. Nature based experiences Australia’s natural environment is an essential part of the Chinese visitor experience. Not only did 65% hope to have a nature-based experience and 26% a wildlife experience, 44% cited Australia’s unspoilt natural environment as the single best feature of Australia. Australia’s good natural environment and livability was also the main reason given for recommending Australia to others (89%). Value for Money The IVS reports Chinese visitors to South Australia were 1.12 times more likely to be dissatisfied with Cost / value for money / exchange rate / expensive compared to the Rest of Australia. 35% for SA versus 31% for Rest of Australia. Good shopping Satisfaction with shopping had a positive association with overall visitor satisfaction with Australia and a greater likelihood to recommend Australia as a holiday destination Good quality Western and Chinese food The Chinese visitor generally expects to consume Chinese food while in Australia, however, the quality of the Chinese food (or for group-tour visitors, the choice of restaurants) needs to improve. Importantly, when visitors rate the quality of Chinese food highly, trip outcomes are improved. Chinese language barriers Overall, visitors dissatisfied with the availability of Chinese language services were less likely to have a trip better than expected (see Appendix Figure 3), or to recommend 10 . Australia as a holiday destination (see Appendix Figure 5). The language barrier was also one of the main reasons cited by visitors for not recommending Australia (37%).

21 South Australia has what China Wants
World class beauty and natural environments A safe and secure destination Good food, wine, local cuisine and produce Friendly and open citizens, hospitality Native or cultural heritage Kangaroo Island, whale/dolphin watching Source: Tourism Australia’s: Understanding the Chinese Consumer June 2013 22% indicated that Kangaroo Island was a most appealing destination behind Sydney, Gold Coast, Tropical North Queensland and Melbourne. The most appealing Australian destinations included: Australian beaches Aussie coastal lifestyle The Australian wildlife Rainforests etc Their preferred sources for planning a holiday to Australia were: 74% general internet source 66% travel advice websites 63% Offline travel agent 39% online travel agent The Asia Marketing Fund (AMF) announced by the Australian Government in the budget, provides A$48.5 million over four years to promote Australia to Asia. In China, Tourism Australia targets affluent adults with an independent travel mindset who want to explore and experience local culture.

22 Tools to Help You Asia Focus
Tourism Research Australia, through the AMF have provided a number of Action Plans to aid tourism operators in developing their Asia market strategies.

23 Mega-trends Impacting Tourism Over Next 20 Years (Prepared by CSIRO Futures for Queensland)

24 1. The Orient Express The generation of wealth is moving east

25 1. The Orient Express Over 1 billion people in Asia will transition out of poverty into the middle income bracket in coming decades China will dominate this trend Chinese tourists prefer historical & cultural sites rather than just natural scenery Like to incorporate visits to museum, art shows or watch sport during holiday Countries throughout Asia are investing heavily in tourism so there is much competition

26 2. A Natural Advantage Impact of climate change
Australia has world class natural assets Nature is still Australia’s drawcard with tourists Increased urbanisation is likely to increase the desire for nature

27 3. Great Expectations Moving upwards through Maslow’s Hierarchy
As incomes rise, people move from consuming materials to consuming experiences An increasing desire for authentic experiences The tourist doesn’t want to be a tourist VFR is important especially for domestic tourism & forecast to rise

28 4. Bolts From The Blue Tourism is highly sensitive to extreme events
Climate change brings more extreme weather events Increased human mobility is elevating the risk of infectious diseases

29 4. Bolts From The Blue Increased uncertainty increases the popularity of domestic holidays Australia is a relatively safe tourist destination Australia’s safety ranked more highly by past visitors

30 5. Digital Whispers Internet usage continues to grow
Increased internet usage on smartphones IT will continue to change how tourists access and use information The changing role of the travel agent Greater information flows between travellers

31 5. Digital Whispers The popularity of user-generated content in travel
More bookings are made online Virtual experiences are not replacing actual experiences yet A virtual experience may increase the intention to visit Despite IT, there is the expectation for face-to-face interaction For some there is too much IT and people want to disconnect

32 6. On The Move Trade leads to travel
Global trade to increase by nearly 75% by 2025 Strong trading ties with Asia Growth in multi-purpose trips Education exports (22% of students in 2009) Rise of medical tourism

33 6. On The Move Aviation access is critical
Air ticket prices also important The world’s citizens are becoming more mobile High speed rail more popular Cruise ships on the rise

34 7. The Lucky Country Australia rode the GFC better than most
Overseas holidays getting cheaper Outbound tourism for Australians is on the rise Australian tourism seen to be high cost globally Lack of investment in domestic tourism product could hold back local potential Ageing population means Baby Boomers form a key market

35 Defining Characteristics Arising From Merging of the Megatrends
Safe and secure Clean Green Friendly and authentic Value South Australia performs well on most of these dimensions

36 Domestic Tourism – Key Drivers
Safety and security Value for money Picturesque natural environments Key attractions Natural landmarks Heritage sites Historical landmarks Food and wine experiences Especially in natural settings

37 Domestic Tourism Issues
Outbound tourism growing strongly Aspirational Broader product range Better value Lack of awareness of Australian product Domestic travel helps unite families Offering must suit all family members VFR continues to grow Weekend breaks continue to be popular Challenge is to move them outside peak periods

38 BUT South Australia Great natural environments
Wide range of natural and heritage attractions Excellent food and wine Good driving location BUT Low levels of awareness Limited access

39 for accessible research for industry and government.
Go to for accessible research for industry and government.


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