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FORECASTING AUSTRALIA’S TOURISM FUTURE SATIC Tourism Conference By Dr Leo Jago Chief Economist & GM 29 May 2014.

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Presentation on theme: "FORECASTING AUSTRALIA’S TOURISM FUTURE SATIC Tourism Conference By Dr Leo Jago Chief Economist & GM 29 May 2014."— Presentation transcript:

1 FORECASTING AUSTRALIA’S TOURISM FUTURE SATIC Tourism Conference By Dr Leo Jago Chief Economist & GM 29 May 2014

2 Presentation Overview  Tourism – the state of play  Tourism – forecasts  Megatrends (CSIRO Futures)  Summary of key tourism drivers

3 Global Tourism Statistics (UNWTO)  International tourism arrivals in 2013 : 1.1 billion Annual growth of 4% expected to continue Predicted arrivals for 2030 of 1.8 billion  Tourism export earnings in 2012 : USD 1.3 trillion  Accounted for 9% global GDP in 2012  Generated 9% of total employment in 2012

4 Tourism’s Economic Significance ( ) AustraliaSouth Australia Direct tourism GDP$24.2 billion (2.8% of total GDP) $2.2 billion (2.3% of total GDP) Tourism exports$27 billion (8.9% of total exports) $1.1 billion (4% of total exports) Direct employment543,600 jobs (4.7% of total employment) 31,000 jobs (3.8% of total employment) Businesses280,083

5 Australian Tourism Figures (YE Dec 2013) Visitors (millions) Nights (millions) Spend (billions) International $28.9 Domestic Overnight $51.5 Domestic Day Trip164.3-$18.3 Total$98.7

6 Inbound Versus Outbound Visitors

7 South Australian Tourism Figures (YE Dec 2013) Visitors (millions) Nights (millions) Spend (billions) International * Domestic Overnight $3.2 Domestic Day Trip11.0-$1.2 Total$5.1* * Excludes pre-paid expenses

8 Visitor Nights in South Australia

9 Visitor Spend in South Australia

10 International Arrivals to Australia in 2013

11 Source of International Visitors to South Australia

12 Source of International Visitors NationalitySouth Australia % Australia % United Kingdom17.2*10.5 New Zealand * USA Germany7.8*2.8 China * Malaysia4.2 France4.1*1.8 Canada Italy3.11.1

13 International Visitor Activities

14 International Visitor Dispersal NationalityVisitors % Nights % China96 Other Asia1713 North America3625 Europe4825 Total2718 Nights outside capital cities, GC & TNQ YE December 2013

15 Source of Interstate Visitors to South Australia Origin% Victoria42.6 NSW26.6 Queensland13.2 Western Australia8.3 Northern Territory5.0 ACT2.2 Tasmania1.9

16 Purpose of Visiting South Australia (All Visitors)

17 Increasing Visitors to South Australia from UK, US & Europe  53% could name a location in SA unprompted Adelaide 49% Kangaroo Island 10% Barossa 5%  Respondents believed SA: Has unique attractions Just seems too far away Is vast and empty compared to other places in Australia

18 Main Reason for not Selecting South Australia in Planning the Trip  Not enough time in trip to include  Too expensive  Other destinations more appealing  Plan to visit in the future

19 China Forecast to Remain Australia’s Top Expenditure Market

20 Key Influences on Chinese Visitor Satisfaction  Attractions, especially nature based  Value for money  Good shopping  Good quality food, Western and Chinese  Chinese language services Source: Tourism Research Australia’s: Chinese Visitor Satisfaction Research January 2014

21 South Australia has what China Wants  World class beauty and natural environments  A safe and secure destination  Good food, wine, local cuisine and produce  Friendly and open citizens, hospitality  Native or cultural heritage  Kangaroo Island, whale/dolphin watching Source: Tourism Australia’s: Understanding the Chinese Consumer June 2013

22 Tools to Help You Asia Focus

23 Mega-trends Impacting Tourism Over Next 20 Years (Prepared by CSIRO Futures for Queensland)

24 1. The Orient Express  The generation of wealth is moving east

25  Over 1 billion people in Asia will transition out of poverty into the middle income bracket in coming decades  China will dominate this trend Chinese tourists prefer historical & cultural sites rather than just natural scenery Like to incorporate visits to museum, art shows or watch sport during holiday  Countries throughout Asia are investing heavily in tourism so there is much competition 1. The Orient Express

26 2. A Natural Advantage  Impact of climate change  Australia has world class natural assets  Nature is still Australia’s drawcard with tourists  Increased urbanisation is likely to increase the desire for nature

27 3. Great Expectations  Moving upwards through Maslow’s Hierarchy  As incomes rise, people move from consuming materials to consuming experiences  An increasing desire for authentic experiences  The tourist doesn’t want to be a tourist  VFR is important especially for domestic tourism & forecast to rise

28 4. Bolts From The Blue  Tourism is highly sensitive to extreme events  Climate change brings more extreme weather events  Increased human mobility is elevating the risk of infectious diseases

29 4. Bolts From The Blue  Increased uncertainty increases the popularity of domestic holidays  Australia is a relatively safe tourist destination  Australia’s safety ranked more highly by past visitors

30 5. Digital Whispers  Internet usage continues to grow  Increased internet usage on smartphones  IT will continue to change how tourists access and use information  The changing role of the travel agent  Greater information flows between travellers

31  The popularity of user-generated content in travel  More bookings are made online  Virtual experiences are not replacing actual experiences yet  A virtual experience may increase the intention to visit  Despite IT, there is the expectation for face-to-face interaction  For some there is too much IT and people want to disconnect 5. Digital Whispers

32 6. On The Move  Trade leads to travel  Global trade to increase by nearly 75% by 2025  Strong trading ties with Asia  Growth in multi-purpose trips  Education exports (22% of students in 2009)  Rise of medical tourism

33  Aviation access is critical  Air ticket prices also important  The world’s citizens are becoming more mobile  High speed rail more popular  Cruise ships on the rise 6. On The Move

34 7. The Lucky Country  Australia rode the GFC better than most  Overseas holidays getting cheaper  Outbound tourism for Australians is on the rise  Australian tourism seen to be high cost globally  Lack of investment in domestic tourism product could hold back local potential  Ageing population means Baby Boomers form a key market

35 Defining Characteristics Arising From Merging of the Megatrends  Safe and secure  Clean  Green  Friendly and authentic  Value South Australia performs well on most of these dimensions

36 Domestic Tourism – Key Drivers  Safety and security  Value for money  Picturesque natural environments  Key attractions Natural landmarks Heritage sites Historical landmarks  Food and wine experiences Especially in natural settings

37 Domestic Tourism Issues  Outbound tourism growing strongly Aspirational Broader product range Better value  Lack of awareness of Australian product  Domestic travel helps unite families Offering must suit all family members  VFR continues to grow  Weekend breaks continue to be popular Challenge is to move them outside peak periods

38 South Australia  Great natural environments  Wide range of natural and heritage attractions  Excellent food and wine  Good driving location BUT  Low levels of awareness  Limited access

39 Go to for accessible research for industry and government.


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