Presentation on theme: "FORECASTING AUSTRALIA’S TOURISM FUTURE"— Presentation transcript:
1 FORECASTING AUSTRALIA’S TOURISM FUTURE SATIC Tourism ConferenceBy Dr Leo JagoChief Economist & GM29 May 2014
2 Presentation Overview Tourism – the state of playTourism – forecastsMegatrends (CSIRO Futures)Summary of key tourism drivers
3 Global Tourism Statistics (UNWTO) International tourism arrivals in 2013 : 1.1 billionAnnual growth of 4% expected to continuePredicted arrivals for 2030 of 1.8 billionTourism export earnings in 2012 : USD 1.3 trillionAccounted for 9% global GDP in 2012Generated 9% of total employment in 2012
4 Tourism’s Economic Significance (2012-13) AustraliaSouth AustraliaDirect tourism GDP$24.2 billion(2.8% of total GDP)$2.2 billion(2.3% of total GDP)Tourism exports$27 billion(8.9% of total exports)$1.1 billion(4% of total exports)Direct employment543,600 jobs(4.7% of total employment)31,000 jobs(3.8% of total employment)Businesses280,083
5 Australian Tourism Figures (YE Dec 2013) Visitors (millions)Nights (millions)Spend (billions)International5.9216.7$28.9Domestic Overnight75.8282.7$51.5Domestic Day Trip164.3-$18.3Total$98.7
7 South Australian Tourism Figures (YE Dec 2013) Visitors (millions)Nights (millions)Spend (billions)International0.410.50.7*Domestic Overnight5.219.5$3.2Domestic Day Trip11.0-$1.2Total$5.1** Excludes pre-paid expenses
14 International Visitor Dispersal Nights outside capital cities, GC & TNQYE December 2013NationalityVisitors%NightsChina96Other Asia1713North America3625Europe48Total2718
15 Source of Interstate Visitors to South Australia Origin%Victoria42.6NSW26.6Queensland13.2Western Australia8.3Northern Territory5.0ACT2.2Tasmania1.9
16 Purpose of Visiting South Australia (All Visitors)
17 Increasing Visitors to South Australia from UK, US & Europe 53% could name a location in SA unpromptedAdelaide 49%Kangaroo Island 10%Barossa 5%Respondents believed SA:Has unique attractionsJust seems too far awayIs vast and empty compared to other places in Australia
18 Main Reason for not Selecting South Australia in Planning the Trip Not enough time in trip to includeToo expensiveOther destinations more appealingPlan to visit in the future
19 China Forecast to Remain Australia’s Top Expenditure Market
20 Key Influences on Chinese Visitor Satisfaction Attractions, especially nature basedValue for moneyGood shoppingGood quality food, Western and ChineseChinese language servicesSource: Tourism Research Australia’s: Chinese Visitor Satisfaction Research January 2014The key drivers in creating a positive travel experience for the Chinese visitor are attractions, value for money, good shopping and having a nature-based experience that is better than expected. Strategies should be developed to maintain and enhance these key elements of a trip to Australia.Nature based experiencesAustralia’s natural environment is an essential part of the Chinese visitor experience. Not only did 65% hope to have a nature-based experience and 26% a wildlife experience, 44% cited Australia’s unspoilt natural environment as the single best feature of Australia. Australia’s good natural environment and livability was also the main reason given for recommending Australia to others (89%).Value for MoneyThe IVS reports Chinese visitors to South Australia were 1.12 times more likely to be dissatisfied with Cost / value for money / exchange rate / expensive compared to the Rest of Australia.35% for SA versus 31% for Rest of Australia.Good shoppingSatisfaction with shopping had a positive association with overall visitor satisfaction with Australia and a greater likelihood to recommend Australia as a holiday destinationGood quality Western and Chinese foodThe Chinese visitor generally expects to consume Chinese food while in Australia, however, the quality of the Chinese food (or for group-tour visitors, the choice of restaurants) needs to improve. Importantly, when visitors rate the quality of Chinese food highly, trip outcomes are improved.Chinese language barriersOverall, visitors dissatisfied with the availability of Chinese language services were less likely to have a trip better than expected (see Appendix Figure 3), or to recommend10 . Australia as a holiday destination (see Appendix Figure 5). The language barrier was also one of the main reasons cited by visitors for not recommending Australia (37%).
21 South Australia has what China Wants World class beauty and natural environmentsA safe and secure destinationGood food, wine, local cuisine and produceFriendly and open citizens, hospitalityNative or cultural heritageKangaroo Island, whale/dolphin watchingSource: Tourism Australia’s: Understanding the Chinese Consumer June 201322% indicated that Kangaroo Island was a most appealing destination behind Sydney, Gold Coast, Tropical North Queensland and Melbourne.The most appealing Australian destinations included:Australian beachesAussie coastal lifestyleThe Australian wildlifeRainforests etcTheir preferred sources for planning a holiday to Australia were:74% general internet source66% travel advice websites63% Offline travel agent39% online travel agentThe Asia Marketing Fund (AMF) announced by the Australian Government in the budget, provides A$48.5 million over four years to promote Australia to Asia.In China, Tourism Australia targets affluent adults with an independent travel mindset who want to explore and experience local culture.
22 Tools to Help You www.tra.gov.au Asia Focus Tourism Research Australia, through the AMF have provided a number of Action Plans to aid tourism operators in developing their Asia market strategies.
23 Mega-trends Impacting Tourism Over Next 20 Years (Prepared by CSIRO Futures for Queensland)
24 1. The Orient ExpressThe generation of wealth is moving east
25 1. The Orient ExpressOver 1 billion people in Asia will transition out of poverty into the middle income bracket in coming decadesChina will dominate this trendChinese tourists prefer historical & cultural sites rather than just natural sceneryLike to incorporate visits to museum, art shows or watch sport during holidayCountries throughout Asia are investing heavily in tourism so there is much competition
26 2. A Natural Advantage Impact of climate change Australia has world class natural assetsNature is still Australia’s drawcard with touristsIncreased urbanisation is likely to increase the desire for nature
27 3. Great Expectations Moving upwards through Maslow’s Hierarchy As incomes rise, people move from consuming materials to consuming experiencesAn increasing desire for authentic experiencesThe tourist doesn’t want to be a touristVFR is important especially for domestic tourism & forecast to rise
28 4. Bolts From The Blue Tourism is highly sensitive to extreme events Climate change brings more extreme weather eventsIncreased human mobility is elevating the risk of infectious diseases
29 4. Bolts From The BlueIncreased uncertainty increases the popularity of domestic holidaysAustralia is a relatively safe tourist destinationAustralia’s safety ranked more highly by past visitors
30 5. Digital Whispers Internet usage continues to grow Increased internet usage on smartphonesIT will continue to change how tourists access and use informationThe changing role of the travel agentGreater information flows between travellers
31 5. Digital Whispers The popularity of user-generated content in travel More bookings are made onlineVirtual experiences are not replacing actual experiences yetA virtual experience may increase the intention to visitDespite IT, there is the expectation for face-to-face interactionFor some there is too much IT and people want to disconnect
32 6. On The Move Trade leads to travel Global trade to increase by nearly 75% by 2025Strong trading ties with AsiaGrowth in multi-purpose tripsEducation exports (22% of students in 2009)Rise of medical tourism
33 6. On The Move Aviation access is critical Air ticket prices also importantThe world’s citizens are becoming more mobileHigh speed rail more popularCruise ships on the rise
34 7. The Lucky Country Australia rode the GFC better than most Overseas holidays getting cheaperOutbound tourism for Australians is on the riseAustralian tourism seen to be high cost globallyLack of investment in domestic tourism product could hold back local potentialAgeing population means Baby Boomers form a key market
35 Defining Characteristics Arising From Merging of the Megatrends Safe and secureCleanGreenFriendly and authenticValueSouth Australia performs well on most of these dimensions
36 Domestic Tourism – Key Drivers Safety and securityValue for moneyPicturesque natural environmentsKey attractionsNatural landmarksHeritage sitesHistorical landmarksFood and wine experiencesEspecially in natural settings
37 Domestic Tourism Issues Outbound tourism growing stronglyAspirationalBroader product rangeBetter valueLack of awareness of Australian productDomestic travel helps unite familiesOffering must suit all family membersVFR continues to growWeekend breaks continue to be popularChallenge is to move them outside peak periods
38 BUT South Australia Great natural environments Wide range of natural and heritage attractionsExcellent food and wineGood driving locationBUTLow levels of awarenessLimited access
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