Global growth: Actual & projections…… Source: IMF World Economic Outlook April 2013 Forecasts Annual GDP Growth
Shares of global growth have shifted Source: IMF World Economic Outlook April 2013 Contributions to global growth (percentage points)
Key economies - GDP growth recent and forecast… Source: IMF World Economic Outlook April 2013 Annual GDP growth
A few points on global growth 20y ago the US and EU accounted for half of world GDP growth – now it is less than 20% China and India’s share in 2012 - 44%! Rising trend should remain in place in Emerging Markets generally Chinese growth has cooled – could be less than 8% this year (!) – down from peak of 14% in 2007 Global GDP growth of 4%-5% is not the norm – long-term average is 3%-3.5% This is a super cycle – it is not the world ‘New Normal’
Quarterly UK growth- contributions by sector Source: Unwinding of Jubilee effect and Olympic boost Diamond Jubilee Royal Wedding Collapse of Lehman Brothers
Various factors to watch for…. New Bank of England Governor on 1 July. More stimulus? QE? Interest rate guidance? An upturn in the housing market? Bank of England Funding for Lending Scheme helped mortgage market. Chancellor’s Help to Buy scheme to raise demand? Government help to SME sector? New Bank of England Governor on 1 July. More stimulus? QE? Interest rate guidance? An upturn in the housing market? Bank of England Funding for Lending Scheme helped mortgage market. Chancellor’s Help to Buy scheme to raise demand? Government help to SME sector? New Euro area upturn?? Is the eurozone financially more robust? Are individual countries less systemic? (Probably!) Attitudes to and UK relationship with the rest of ‘Europe’. Referendum on the EU in the next parliament?? New Euro area upturn?? Is the eurozone financially more robust? Are individual countries less systemic? (Probably!) Attitudes to and UK relationship with the rest of ‘Europe’. Referendum on the EU in the next parliament??
EU referendum opinion polls Source: YouGov Voting to stay in the EU (net balances)
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