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Understanding How Consumer Trends Shape Your Market Culinary Tides, Inc. Suzy Badaracco, President Toxicologist, Chef, Dietitian.

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Presentation on theme: "Understanding How Consumer Trends Shape Your Market Culinary Tides, Inc. Suzy Badaracco, President Toxicologist, Chef, Dietitian."— Presentation transcript:

1 Understanding How Consumer Trends Shape Your Market Culinary Tides, Inc. Suzy Badaracco, President Toxicologist, Chef, Dietitian

2 Who We Are…What We Do Who we are: –Private Trends Forecasting Think Tank – Staff = 7 –2 Satellite offices – Washington DC, Tokyo –Forecast work is created through military intelligence techniques, Chaos Theory –Background: BS Criminalistics, Assoc. Culinary Arts, MS Nutrition Toxicologist, Chef, Registered Dietitian What we do: –Partner long term w/ food industry clients – side along Think Tank –Look for patterns in Chaos to aid future strategy –Produce custom monthly & quarterly reports for clients Government, Technology, Adversaries / Allies, Competitors, Research, Flavor & Cuisine - tracked and forecasted specific to client Quarterly reports include updated 12-18 month forecast for each area

3 Chaos, Blips, Shadows, Trends Chaos –Birth Blips Shadows Trends –Tracking

4 Consumers –Sentiment vs. Behavior, Drivers, Recovery Behavior Health Horizons –Generational Concerns –Health Drivers Flavor Horizons –Meal Patterns, Settings, Preparations, Flavor Landscape –Couriers, Ricochets, Rock Stars & Rising Stars, Orphan How to Play on a New Playground –Headwinds & Tailwinds, Forecast, Suggestions Today’s Area of Focus

5 Consumers

6 The Generations: Age The Depression Era Born: 1912-1921 Coming of Age: 1930-1939 Age in 2013: 92 to 101 Current Population: 11-12 million (and declining rapidly) World War II Born: 1922 to 1927 Coming of Age: 1940-1945 Age in 2013: 86-91 Current Population: 11 million (in quickening decline) Post-War Cohort Born: 1928-1945 Coming of Age: 1946-1963 Age in 2013: 68 to 85 Current Population: 41 million (declining)

7 Boomers I or The Baby Boomers Born: 1946-1954 Coming of Age: 1963-1972 Age in 2013: 59-67 Current Population: 33 million Boomers II or Generation Jones Born: 1955-1965 Coming of Age: 1973-1983 Age in 2013: 48 to 58 Current Population: 49 million Generation X Born: 1966-1976 Coming of Age: 1988-1994 Age in 2013: 37 to 47 Current Population: 41 million The Generations: Age Generation Y, Echo Boomers or Millennials Born: 1977-1994 Coming of Age: 1998-2006 Age in 2013: 19 to 36 Current Population: 71 million Generation Z Born: 1995-2012 Coming of Age: 2013-2020 Age in 2013: 1-18 Current Population: 23 million and growing rapidly

8 The Generations: Personality Post War discomfort uncertainty Cold War security comfort familiarity known activities, environments Boomers I largely optimistic good economic opportunities Boomers II economic struggles “I’m out for me” narcissism focus on self-help skepticism -media /institutions

9 The Generations: Personality Gen X “lost” generation skepticism “what’s in it for me” “latchkey” kids lowest voting participation children of divorce best educated caution pragmatism concern over family Gen Y technology wise immune to traditional marketing more ethnically diverse flexible style conscious involved in family purchases not brand loyal not sustainability driven price driven eat according to social cues Gen Z (++) very brand loyal sustainability driven eat according to hunger Influenced by peers, marketing, not parents

10 Consumer Sentiment vs. Behavior 3/13 4/13 Consumer + Consumer - *Shows recession vs. recovery behavior Conference Board – consumer confidence  Commerce Dept - consumer confidence  Black Box- restaurant $  NRF- retail $  NRN-Millerpulse- same store $  NRA- restaurant performance index  Consumer Reports- retail $  Reuters – Consumer confidence  Black Box –same store $  Black Box –willingness to spend  Black Box – restaurant traffic  NRN-Millerpulse- same store $  Census Bureau- restaurant sales  NRA- restaurant performance index 

11 Consumer Sentiment vs. Behavior *Shows recession vs. recovery behavior Consumer + Consumer - 5/13 Conference Board - consumer confidence  Conference Board – sentiment index  Conference Board – expectations index  Conference Board – present situation index  Black Box –same store $  NRN-Millerpulse- same store $  Commerce Dept - consumer spending 

12 Disconnect Ignorance Fear Mis-informed Sub-consciously influenced Denial Cherry picked data Conscious Lie Mis-represent what they paid for item Buy something against partner’s / parents wishes To hide embarrassment Anticipate correct answer (surveys), leading q’s Saying One Thing…Doing Another *American Express research: Generation Y is more secretive and belligerent about money than baby boomers

13 Texas A&M Edelman Berland, 8095 Live Mintel Analytic Partners SocialVibe Industry Intelligence Cone Communications FGI Research Children between the ages of 3 and 8 - advertisements were more influential than parents 80% of Millennials want brands to entertain them, with 40% wanting brands to let them influence products via co-creation 90% of adults ages 25 to 34 prepared ethnic foods at home in the last month, 91% of adults with children under 18 made ethnic food About half of 18 and 44 year olds base brand loyalty on brand experience - video/online gaming, social media and third-party expert information through blogs and articles 70% of consumers actively engaged in social media have made a purchase as a result of being connected to a brand online 86% of US shoppers consider sustainability when buying groceries 91% of consumers say they would switch brands to one that supports a cause, and 90% say they would boycott if they learned of irresponsible behavior 36% of consumers say Meatless Monday campaign influenced their decision to cut back on meat and 47% ate more whole grains Consumer Influencers

14 InSites Consulting RAND Corporation NPD Accenture NPD Just 4% of all Americans aged 15 to 25 thinks that a brand page on Facebook is a credible source of information about the product Teen snack purchases were influenced by taxes, subsidies and the presence of peers when buying snacks Consumers are looking for products made with less fats/oils, sodium and sweeteners, however, this has little influence on a diner’s choice of restaurant and menu item 20% of consumers switched the companies they typically buy from, an increase of 5% over 2011. However, 85% said companies could have done something to prevent them from switching 80% of US adults describe themselves as “extremely healthy” or “very healthy”, but only 20% have what is considered to be a “most healthy" diet 52% of Americans said figuring out their taxes is easier than knowing how to eat healthy, 23% of obese and 44% of overweight consumers say they are not trying to lose weight Consumer Apathy / Disconnect

15 Health Horizons

16 Generational Health Concerns Health Issue Associated Elements Generation Boomers + Gen X Gen Y (Millennials, Echo Boomers, Boomerangers) Gen Z Cognitive Function (Focus, Memory, Mood) Digestion Obesity Cognitive Function (Focus, Mood, Stress) Digestion Obesity Cognitive Function (Development) Vision Digestion Obesity Diabetes Immunity Heart Health Digestion Obesity Cancer Vision Muscle / Joint Immunity Diabetes Cognitive Function (Focus, Memory, Mood) Omega 3’s Pre, Probiotics Fiber Sat, Trans Fat Sugar Caffeine Fiber Pre, Probiotics Sat, Trans Fat Fiber Pre, Probiotics Caffeine Vit D, Calcium, Mg Salt Sat, Trans Fat Fiber Pre, Probiotics Caffeine Omega 3’s Breakfast

17 Health Trends: Drivers Health Prevention Digestion CVD  Flexitarian Vision Obesity Seniors Joint / Bone Fiber / Grains Muscle Mood Control Digestion Diabetes Kids Menu Labeling Acrylamide Satiety Calories Salt, Sugar, Fat Apps Seasonal / Local Cholesterol Simplify Convenience Naturally Healthy Benefit? Unprocessed Trust Organic / Natural Free From Health Claims Food Safety Sustainability Cognitive Function Energy Development / Decline Depression Memory Focus Sleep Stress Relaxation Obesity Portion Control Satiety Dining Out Kids Snacking

18 Flavor Horizons

19 Health Couriers *Couriers shuttle trends in from neighboring industries / focuses Health Couriers  Salt, Fat, Sugar Botanicals Double sided menus Flavorful Health Gluten free backlash Mindful Snacks Healthy Indulgences Pure, Simple Kids Focus

20 Meal Patterns Meal Types Vibrant Seasonal All Day Breakfast Daypart Disintegration Family Friendly Fine Dining Farm Branded Ingredients Perpetual Snacking American Regionalism Fast Casual Copycats Kids Meal Evolution

21 Meal Settings & Preparation Inspiration Settings Preparation Factor Translation *Rock Star Butchers, Millers, Bar Chefs *Communal Tables, Shared Spaces *Street Food, Underground Restaurants *Pop-ups, Speakeasies *Fast Casual, Approachable Fine Dining *Vibrant, Inspired, Risk Taking *Authentic, Rustic *Approachable, Family Friendly *Open Flame, Foraged *House Smoked, Herb Infused *Pickled, Fermented, Peppered *Meatless *Minimally Processed *Seasonal, Regional, Authentic *Portion Size , Portion Options  *Scratch Prep, Wildcrafting *Adventure, Discovery

22 Wine & Travel Trends Wine Travel South America Central America Belize Panama Peru Brazil Guatemala Argentina Africa Middle East Jordan Lebanon Israel Congo Sudan Ethiopia Oman Regions Africa NZ Spain Argentina Italy Chile France Asia Nepal Philippines Burma Cambodia Styles Petit Verdot Vouvray Sweet Red Muscato Sparkling Cocktails House blends Experiential Themed Leap/Bucket List Earthing Great Barrier Reef Northern Lts Sports Multi-Destination Spa Space Settings Happy Hours  Speak-Easies Rotating/Guest Bartender Flights Pacific Tasmania Galapagos Caribbean Arctic Iceland Norway Scandinavia Antarctica Sweden Cuba *Couriers - shuttle trends in from neighboring industries / focuses

23 Food & Flavor Landscape 2013 Familiar / Historical Personality Experimental Seasoning Fruit/VegDairy Macro Beverage Grain Protein Interpreters Type A Sensuals Cage-Dancers Bi-Polars Tree Huggers *Barrel Aged Cocktail *Kombucha *Vietnamese Coffee *Dessert Cocktail *Sipping Vinegar *Kefir *Agua Fresca *Bubbles *Culinary Cocktails *Micro-Distilleries *Lemonade *Ancient Tea *Coconut *Moonshine *Hand Crafted Soda *Grapefruit *Roots *Coconut *Berries *Chilies *Kale *Citrus *Pumpkin *Muntries *White Strawberries *Finger Limes *Hibiscus *Sunchokes *Mizuna *Seaweed *Kimchee *Wild Greens *Offal *Almond Butter *Eggs *Wild Game *Beans *Oysters *Sardines *Smoke *Pickling *World Salt *Chilies *Citrus *Horseradish *Chutney *Zip code honey *Curry *Nordic *Flowers *Ashes *Huacatay *Flavored Heat *Sour/Fermented *Miso *Hyssop *Geranium leaf *Sprouted *Grits *Arepas *Freekah *Chia *Global Noodles *Farro *Black rice *French Pastry *Quinoa *Oats *Lentils *Multi-grain Tortillas *Waffles *Popcorn *Greek Yogurt *Farmstead Cheese *Ricotta *Goat Cheese *Artisan soft serve *Insects *Goat, Lamb Bellies *Skin *Lethal *Invasivors *Blood *Bone Marrow *Fin to Tail *Salumi *Lebanese Yogurt *Paneer *Plant Based Dairy *Burrata *Savory ice cream

24 Flavor & Cuisines – Rock / Rising Stars Rock Stars Soul Food Asia – Korea, Vietnam Central America –Regional Mexico South America – Peru Middle East Rising Stars Africa – Egypt, Morocco, S. Africa, Kenya Caribbean, Pacific- Cuba, Fiji, Tasmania Asia – Nepal, Cambodia, Philippines Central America –Nicaragua, Guatemala, Belize South America- Ecuador Arctic – Denmark, Scandinavia, Norway Pathways : USA – Regional, Regional Specialty Foreign Familiar (think Mexican) – Regional, Regional Comfort Nuevo Foreign (think Middle East) – National, National Comfort

25 Other Flavor Factions & Their Parentage Central America – Fusion birth, Parents = Travel & So. American flavor trends –Costa Rica, Panama, Guatemala, Nicaragua, El Salvador, Belize, Honduras Asian Shift –Courier birth, Parent = Travel –Shift away from Thai, Japanese, Korean & towards Malaysia, Laos, Cambodia, Nepal – Shift due to rise in consumer confidence, risk taking, adventure seeking Caribbean & Pacific –Courier birth, Parent = Economic recovery translated to travel shifts –Cuba, Bora Bora, New Zealand, Tasmania, Fiji, French Polynesia –Travel here signals luxury, time , $$, playfulness Arctic –Fusion birth, Parents = Travel, Economic Recovery –Cross ties Arctic & EU – Antarctica, Nepal, Lapland, Iceland, Norway, Scandinavia, Finland, Netherlands, Ukraine –Travel here signals solitude, bravery, $$, fearlessness, curiosity, exploration

26 Nordic: 1/11-3/13 Wine Ind. Bakery Food Mnft./RCA/IFT/ASTA Hi-End Restaurant/ Celebrity Chef Governments Hollywood Book Publishers ADA AMA Consumer Consumer Mags Travel Ind. Grocery TV/News Mags Industry Mags Diet Ind. Universities Family / Quick Serve Restaurants AACC Packaging Pharmaceutical Cosmetics / Beauty Biotech Bars/Cocktails *Birth Overseas – Not USA USA

27 How to Play on a Changing Playground

28 Consumer Drivers - Recovery Drivers Economy Men Evolve Deal Chic Cost / Value Co-exist Recession Rejection Brands=Value Resilience Optimism Control, Safety Reassurance Stability Accountability GMO Legacy Never Eat Alone Health Portion Options Pure FOP Wellness=Quality Kids Snacking Sustainability Seasonal Green Verification Animal Rights Re-commerce Indigenous Affordable Green Risk Taking Motivation Family Meals Mobile Relationships Value Simplicity Authenticity Escapism Playfulness Brands Invigorating

29 Red Herrings Red Herring Gluten free Private Label Functional Food Rock star chefs Comfort Food “Foodies” Budget Trade down Frugality Local Re-Focus Diabetes (low GI) Brands make comeback, Brands = Value Whole food, Nutrient density, Pure Rock star butchers, Bar chefs, Farmers Global Comfort, Playfulness, Adventure, Risk Butcher, Baker, Agri, Renegade, YouTube Chef Convenience Trade off Recession Rejection, Resilience, Value (not $) Global, Seasonal

30 Consumer Behavior: Recovery Forecast Inspiration Cause Priorities Spending Food & Flavor Factor Translation Income  Time  Fear  Efficiency Ease Convenience trumps budget Brands rebound Return to restaurants Travel abroad  Value Worth Value trumps budget Organic rebounds Green spending  Trade off trumps trade down Coupon use  Explore Educate Exotic, experimental trumps comfort Luxury, Indulgence rebound Desserts in spotlight Playfulness, risk returns Wine varietals, regions 

31 Forecast: 12-18 months  Convenience Store new competition for Grocery, QSR, Fast Casual  Restaurant performance, consumer confidence continue upward swing  Breakfast is mealtime to watch for signals of economic recovery –Breakfast traffic  = sign that economy   Vegetarian / Flexitarian #s will be linked directly to sustainability, obesity –Sustainability & Obesity  = expect Veg / Flex   Flavors / cuisines- more extreme, adventurous items as recovery unfolds  Wines will cross borders to unfamiliar regions, varietals  Beverages regionalize  Vegetable/seasonings demonstrate consumer experimentation vs. caution  Beverage, meat, dessert categories act as barometers for consumer mood –Cocktails, craft beer, wine $ , desserts , insect eating = recovery behavior –Cheap domestic beer, wine $ , cocktails , desserts , meatloaf = recession behavior

32 Suggestions  Know the birth and lifecycle of a trend prior to deciding to enter so you can foretell how to navigate it  Neither love nor hate a trend – emotions will fog the trend’s true pattern and you may be blindsided when it shifts  Spend more time researching a trend’s personality and trajectory than worrying about what your competitors are doing – after all, they may be idiots

33 Thank You! Culinary Tides, Inc. Suzy Badaracco President (503) 880-4682

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