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“Learn as you go” Systems Engineering A Methodology for System Assembly University of Virginia Barry M. Horowitz James H. Lambert.

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Presentation on theme: "“Learn as you go” Systems Engineering A Methodology for System Assembly University of Virginia Barry M. Horowitz James H. Lambert."— Presentation transcript:

1 “Learn as you go” Systems Engineering A Methodology for System Assembly University of Virginia Barry M. Horowitz James H. Lambert

2 Elements for Orchestration on a Development Intensive Project Component Design & Development Dominates Cost & Schedule Technology Assessment Business Value Analysis Component Integration

3 Elements for Orchestration on a System Assembly Project COTS Product Assessments Business Experimentation OTS Component Integration No Dominant Part

4 Comparison of Factors for System Engineering Methodology Factor Development Project Assembly Project CostLow % of Project (10-15%) High % of Project (25-40%) System Rqmts.Based on Experience & Analysis; Early Stabilization Based on Experience & Modified via Experiments Systems AnalysisIntegrated Component Analysis Integration Testing Sequencing of Efforts Dominated by Development Process Relatively Unconstrained

5 Drivers of System Assembly IT integration standards and the Internet Low cost COTS Product-based integration (using EAI technology) with legacy systems Already trained user population Low-cost initial system demo

6 Current Methodology Create System Architecture based on legacy, standards, desired applications, and available products, with emphasis on integration and middleware Order of integration is driven by functional needs Assemble sub-systems from available components Evaluate through testing Learn and improve as you go

7 Gartner Group Prediction (September 2000) Over the next four years, 1/3 of the complex assembly projects will suffer cost/schedule overruns of 30-50%.

8 “Learn as you go” System Engineering Methodology

9 System Assembly Requires Learning Business Requirements Integration problems Capacity limits Performance limits Out-of norm responses Security shortfalls

10 Organized Learning Requirements uncertainty Precedented vs. unprecedented integration tasks  Managing risk via scheduled learning

11 Balancing Learning Rate & Early System Value Delayed Business Value Early Learning Latent Cost/Schedule Risks Early Business Value

12 An Approach for Managing OTS Integration Learning Rate Enumerate product adaptation and integration tasks Based on complexity and precedence, set cost/time risk levels for each task Establish potential sequences (Plans) of integration/test/roll-out  Functional capability  Expected business value  Expected cost and schedule Determine semi-std deviation of cost/schedule to calibrate risk Select best combination Replan as you learn

13 Metrics for Comparing Plans Cost($), Schedule(Mo) Remaining Cost & Schedule Risk vs. Time Ratio of Remaining Cost Risk to Sunk Cost vs Time Ratio of Remaining Schedule Risk to Sunk Cost vs Time % of Final Operational Value Achieved vs Time Uncertainty of % of Final Operational Value Achieved vs Time

14 Required Inputs for Comparing Plans Components to be Assembled Sequence and Schedule for Assembly  Adaptation & Preliminary Integration  Final Integration and Test  Operation Expected Cost for each Operational Milestone Overall Project Cost and Schedule Risk Uncertainty in Cost/Schedule to Complete the Project after each Operational Milestone Uncertainty in % of Final Operational Value for Future Milestones (Use 3 values to represent range-low,middle, high)

15 Gathering Inputs Based on judgements of experts Inputs gathered from a variety of sources  Technical  Operational  Value Managers  Project Managers  Systems Engineers Inputs adjusted based on precedence considerations and external information on related efforts Redone after each milestone is achieved to account for learning New plans, components and sequences are considered at each milestone to account for actual results, learning, new technology, budget changes,etc.

16 Plan Evaluation Requires skilled people in all relevant area  Enterprise Value  Operations  Technical  Project Management Requires people who know the precedence of activities as well as the substance of the required effort Requires a presentation of metrics that is compact and understandable to all

17 Elements of a Specific System Assembly Example Wireless Device Assessments m-CommerceServices Wireless Internet Integration

18 An Example m-Commerce Shopper’s Helper

19 Shopper’s Wireless Helper Internet WAPGateway WebServer DBMS OLAP FUNCTIONS Price Comparison Brand Comparison Purchase (Secure) Locate (GPS)

20 Wireless Internet Integration & Security Constrained  Bandwidth  Performance  Display New Standards  WAP  WTLS  WML Very New Security Technology  Entrust  Verisign  RSA  Certicom

21 Two Competing Plans To simplify the example, assume three components for assembly:  Comparison Shopping (A)  GPS Add-on (B)  On-line Purchasing (C) Two alternative sequences are of interest  A, AB, ABC  C, AC, ABC

22 Comparison of Two Plans Plan 1 Build on Current Customer Base Move to On-line Shopping after initial experience GPS an Accommodation to Customers Plan 2 Move to New Customer Base Go for The Early Revenue Gather Existing Customers later Go Slow and Manage Risk Higher Risk, Faster Payoff















37 Summary System Engineering efforts for assembling a system requires a different emphasis than for developing a system Learning by doing is fundamental and learning can be managed “Learn as you go” is an approach for :  Selecting and Evaluating competing sequences of system assembly  Using specific metrics and compact forms for information and analysis presentation when comparing plans  Accounting for Precedence  Adjusting plans based on learning

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