2. Climate Change, Food Security and Development Bob Watson Chief Scientific Advisor, Defra and Director for Strategic Development, Tyndall Center at UEA Climate Change and the Commonwealth March 26, 2008

3. Climate Change Climate change is both a development and global environmental issue, which undermines: environmental sustainability poverty alleviation and the livelihoods of the poor human health personal, national and regional security Climate change is an inter- and intra-generational equity issue: developing countries and poor people in developing countries are the most vulnerable the actions of today will affect future generations

4. Current situation Food production has more than doubled since 1960Food production has more than doubled since 1960 Food production per capita has grownFood production per capita has grown Food prices have fallenFood prices have fallen Percent of undernourished fallenPercent of undernourished fallen Rural development in China, Thailand and parts of Latin America was the initial stimulus to their rapid economic growthRural development in China, Thailand and parts of Latin America was the initial stimulus to their rapid economic growth

5. So what is the problem? People have benefited unevenly from these yield increases across regions, in part because of different institutional and policy environments People have benefited unevenly from these yield increases across regions, in part because of different institutional and policy environments Emphasis on increasing yields and productivity has in some cases had negative consequences on environmental sustainability – soils, water, biodiversity, climate change Emphasis on increasing yields and productivity has in some cases had negative consequences on environmental sustainability – soils, water, biodiversity, climate change

8. Yield Trends (from Cassman, 1999) Current Global GDP is US $33 trillion Global GDP in 2050 is estimated to increase by about a factor of 4 to about US $140 trillion

9. Fisheries Collapse

10. The Challenge  The demand for food will double within the next 25-50 years, primarily in developing countries, and the type and nutritional quality of food demanded will change  Increasing population and economic growth  Therefore, we need sustained growth in the agricultural sector (crops, livestock, fisheries, forests, biomass, and commodities):  to feed the world  to enhance rural livelihoods by increasing on- and off-farm income  to stimulate economic growth  3.6 % p.a per capita GDP growth is needed in low income countries to cut poverty in half by 2015  Meet food safety standards environmentally and socially sustainable manner

11. The Context Limitations  Less labor: HIV/AIDS and endemic diseases  Less water: increased demand from other sectors and climate change  Less arable land: declining soil fertility, land degradation, urbanization and increasing demand for biofuels  Increasing land policy conflicts  Loss of biodiversity: genetic, species and ecosystem  Increasing levels of pollution: acid deposition and tropospheric ozone  A changing climate: increasing variability and more extreme events

12. The Context Science and Technology  Accelerating crop bio-technology breakthroughs  Increasing concerns by the public over the environmental and human health implications of transgenic crops  Growing IPR concerns  Increasing demands for nontraditional agricultural products (agro-pharmaceuticals)  Growing role of information technology in agriculture Trade and Markets  WTO agriculture talks in disarray  Persistence of agricultural subsidies  Trade barriers between and within countries  Lack of infrastructure in many developing countries

13. The Context  Shifts in funding levels and sources for agricultural R&D  Public sector research funding, especially that relevant to developing countries has been irregular and has not increased with time  Private sector funding growing, but the focus is primarily on OECD markets  Targeted investments in S&T can yield enormous benefits – but are the current public and private sector research activities adequate and effective?

15. Estimated Percentage of Labor Force Lost to AIDS by 2020

17. Agricultural Practices Affect the Environment and Environmental Degradation Affects Agricultural Productivity Can crop, animal and fish traits be improved to address the projected changes in climate – what are the roles of traditional breeding and modern forms of biotechnology? How will the loss of genetic diversity affect future agriculture? Can soil degradation be reversed and productivity enhanced

18. -80 -60 -40 -20 0 19821983198419851986 19871988198919901991 1992 19931994 199519961997199819992000 year % -30 -25 -20 -15 -10 -5-5 0 5 10 15 20 25 rainfall variability GDP growth Ag GDP growth Ethiopia Preliminary results from : A Country Water Resources Assistance Strategy for Ethiopia From Claudia Sadoff Climate variability is already a major impediment to development

21. Perturbation of the Nitrogen Cycle

22. Projections of Future Changes in Temperature

23. Some Areas are Projected to Become Wetter, Others Drier Annual Mean Precipitation Change: 2071 to 2100 Relative to 1990

24. Projected Impacts of Climate Change Projected Impacts of Climate Change Source: Stern Review

25. % Pollen Germination 100 80 40 60 20 0 % Fertility 32 34363840 42 Max. temperature (°C) 350  LL -1 690  LL -1 RICE Han Yong Kim et al. (1996) 80 40 60 20 0 1020 30 Temperature (°C) 40 LIME TREE Pigott and Huntley (1981) © J. Sheehy, IRRI % Fertility 100 80 40 60 20 0 32 34363840 42 Max. temperature (°C) RICE Satake & Yoshida (1978) and Horie (1993) BKN 6624-46-2 Akihikari N22 PEANUT Vara Prasad et al. (2001) % Fertility 60 45 15 30 0 2832364044 Floral bud temperature (°C)

27. Water availability 5 to possibly 25% of global freshwater use exceeds long-term accessible supplies (low to medium certainty)5 to possibly 25% of global freshwater use exceeds long-term accessible supplies (low to medium certainty) 15 - 35% of irrigation withdrawals exceed supply rates and are therefore unsustainable (low to medium certainty)15 - 35% of irrigation withdrawals exceed supply rates and are therefore unsustainable (low to medium certainty)

28. Changes in available water Source: Maarten de Wit and Jacek Stankiewicz, Science 31 March 2006, http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/figsonly/311/5769/1917

29. Crop yields are projected to decrease in the tropics and sub-tropics, but increase at high latitudes Percentage change in average crop yields for a mid-range climate change scenario Even as soon as 2020 crop yields in SSA and parts of Asia are projected to decrease by up to 20%

30. Extreme Weather Events are Projected to Increase  higher maximum temperatures, hot days and heat waves over nearly all land areas (very likely) >> increased stress on livestock and risk to a number of crops  higher minimum temperatures, fewer cold days, frost days and cold spells over nearly all land areas (very likely) >> extended range and activity of some pest and disease vectors  more intense precipitation events over many areas (very likely) >> increased soil erosion  increased summer drying over most mid-latitude continental interiors and associated risk of drought (likely) >> decreased crop yields and water quantity, and increased risk of forest fires  intensified floods and droughts associated with El-Nino events in many regions (likely) >> decreased agricultural and rangeland productivity in drought and flood prone areas

31. Science, Technology and Trade Aspects of S&T and trade are highly contentious, with strong views on the implications of S&T and international trade for the poorAspects of S&T and trade are highly contentious, with strong views on the implications of S&T and international trade for the poor Many of the challenges facing agriculture over the next 50 years will require more integrated applications of existing science and technology, as well as new approaches for agricultural and natural resource managementMany of the challenges facing agriculture over the next 50 years will require more integrated applications of existing science and technology, as well as new approaches for agricultural and natural resource management - biotechnology, nanotechnology, ICT, IPM, remote sensing- biotechnology, nanotechnology, ICT, IPM, remote sensing Some challenges will be resolved only by development and application of new AKST – climate change, animal vaccinesSome challenges will be resolved only by development and application of new AKST – climate change, animal vaccines A systematic redirection of AKST towards agro-ecological strategies is needed to address environmental issuesA systematic redirection of AKST towards agro-ecological strategies is needed to address environmental issues

35. Unique Attributes of IAASTD Intergovernmental Process with multi-stakeholder bureau comprised of 30 representatives from government and 30 from civil society Intergovernmental Process with multi-stakeholder bureau comprised of 30 representatives from government and 30 from civil society Multiple international agency co-sponsorship (FAO, GEF, UNDP, UNEP, UNESCO, World Bank and WHO) Multiple international agency co-sponsorship (FAO, GEF, UNDP, UNEP, UNESCO, World Bank and WHO) Well defined user needs formulated through an extensive international consultative process Well defined user needs formulated through an extensive international consultative process Inclusion of hundreds of experts from relevant stakeholder groups with geographic balance Inclusion of hundreds of experts from relevant stakeholder groups with geographic balance Peer review by governments and experts Peer review by governments and experts Approved by a panel of participating governments Approved by a panel of participating governments

36. Unique Attributes of IAASTD Continued ….. Multi-thematic focus embracing: nutritional security, rural livelihoods, human health and environmental sustainability Multi-thematic focus embracing: nutritional security, rural livelihoods, human health and environmental sustainability Multi-spatial: Global and sub-Global assessments with an intellectually consistent framework Multi-spatial: Global and sub-Global assessments with an intellectually consistent framework Multi-temporal: historical-to-long term (till 2050) perspectives Multi-temporal: historical-to-long term (till 2050) perspectives Integration of local and institutional knowledge Integration of local and institutional knowledge Assessment of policies and institutional arrangements, as well as knowledge, science and technology Assessment of policies and institutional arrangements, as well as knowledge, science and technology

37. Overview Composed of one Global Assessment and five sub-Global Assessments. Composed of one Global Assessment and five sub-Global Assessments. Central and West Asia and North AfricaCentral and West Asia and North Africa East and South Asia and PacificEast and South Asia and Pacific Latin America and the CaribbeanLatin America and the Caribbean North America and EuropeNorth America and Europe Sub-Saharan AfricaSub-Saharan Africa Primary users and direct beneficiaries will be: Primary users and direct beneficiaries will be: decision makers in national and local governmentsdecision makers in national and local governments the private sectorthe private sector International agencies (i.e. FAO, UNDP, UNEP, UNESCO, the World Bank, WHO)International agencies (i.e. FAO, UNDP, UNEP, UNESCO, the World Bank, WHO) the GEFthe GEF UN Multi-lateral Environmental Agreements (i.e. UNCBD, UNCCD, Ramsar)UN Multi-lateral Environmental Agreements (i.e. UNCBD, UNCCD, Ramsar) the scientific communitythe scientific community CSOs, including producer groups and consumer groupsCSOs, including producer groups and consumer groups

38. Overall Structure for the Assessment  Global Assessment (about 500 printed pages)  Eight chapters, each with key messages (i.e. executive summaries)  A Summary for decision makers, which summarizes the key findings of the global assessment  Five Sub-global Assessments (about 250 pages each)  CWANA, ESAP, LAC, NAE and SSA  Typically five chapters each, each with key messages  A Summary for decision makers, which summarizes the key findings of each sub-global assessment  Synthesis Report (about 100 printed pages)  Synthesizes key findings from global and sub-global assessments  Synthesizes key findings regarding eight thematic issues

39. Expected Outputs The final inter-governmental plenary is scheduled for April 2008 at which time outputs will include: The final inter-governmental plenary is scheduled for April 2008 at which time outputs will include: A series of Global and sub-Global assessments, each with a Summary for Decision MakersA series of Global and sub-Global assessments, each with a Summary for Decision Makers A Synthesis Report on key cross cutting issuesA Synthesis Report on key cross cutting issues Markets and Trade Markets and Trade NRM issues - availability and access with an emphasis on water, biodiversity, land degradation, etc. NRM issues - availability and access with an emphasis on water, biodiversity, land degradation, etc. Climate Change Climate Change Bio-energy Bio-energy Human Health Human Health Biotechnology Biotechnology Community based innovation and traditional/indigenous knowledge Community based innovation and traditional/indigenous knowledge Gender (feminization of agriculture) Gender (feminization of agriculture) The final plenary will almost certainly raise a number of contentious issues, where all governments may not be able to agree, e.g., transgenics, agro-chemicals, and trade The final plenary will almost certainly raise a number of contentious issues, where all governments may not be able to agree, e.g., transgenics, agro-chemicals, and trade

40. On the Ground Impact Report will help: Report will help: national governments and civil society weigh the costs and benefits (environmental, social, economic) of technology, policy, management and funding optionsnational governments and civil society weigh the costs and benefits (environmental, social, economic) of technology, policy, management and funding options measure progress in achieving sustainable use objectivesmeasure progress in achieving sustainable use objectives identify effective practices for natural resource managementidentify effective practices for natural resource management identify practices related to AKST in hunger and poverty reductionidentify practices related to AKST in hunger and poverty reduction evaluate the range of evidence for controversial issuesevaluate the range of evidence for controversial issues focus research on questions that have significant policy implications and are characterized by scientific uncertainty, and hence provide a framework for prioritizing funding for research, especially in the public sectorfocus research on questions that have significant policy implications and are characterized by scientific uncertainty, and hence provide a framework for prioritizing funding for research, especially in the public sector

41. Key Challenges Ensuring appropriate balance of controversial issues Ensuring appropriate balance of controversial issues Permitting proponents of all perspectives of the issues to be heard but not influence in any particular direction the outcome of the assessmentPermitting proponents of all perspectives of the issues to be heard but not influence in any particular direction the outcome of the assessment Transgenics Transgenics Agro-chemicals Agro-chemicals Trade and markets Trade and markets Retaining objectivity in how the information is assessed and presented. Retaining objectivity in how the information is assessed and presented. Assuring evidence-based assessmentsAssuring evidence-based assessments

42. Conclusions Agriculture operates within complex systems and is multi- functional in its natureAgriculture operates within complex systems and is multi- functional in its nature In many parts of the world the agricultural and water sectors are maladapted to current climate variabilityIn many parts of the world the agricultural and water sectors are maladapted to current climate variability Human-induced climate change is a serious threat to agricultural productivity, especially in the tropics and sub- tropics where there is hunger and under-nutrition todayHuman-induced climate change is a serious threat to agricultural productivity, especially in the tropics and sub- tropics where there is hunger and under-nutrition today S&T will play a critical role in addressing issues such as climate change, e.g., more resilient agricultural practices and more climate-tolerant seeds (i.e., temperature, drought, salinity and pest resistant)S&T will play a critical role in addressing issues such as climate change, e.g., more resilient agricultural practices and more climate-tolerant seeds (i.e., temperature, drought, salinity and pest resistant) More and better targeted AKST investments, explicitly taking into account the multi-functionality of agriculture, by both public and private sectors can help achieve development and sustainability goalsMore and better targeted AKST investments, explicitly taking into account the multi-functionality of agriculture, by both public and private sectors can help achieve development and sustainability goals