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R. Scott Tubbs Cropping Systems Agronomist University of Georgia.

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Presentation on theme: "R. Scott Tubbs Cropping Systems Agronomist University of Georgia."— Presentation transcript:

1 R. Scott Tubbs Cropping Systems Agronomist University of Georgia

2 State 2009 Planted Acres 2010 Planted Acres % of 2010 Planted Acres Alabama Florida Georgia Mississippi North Carolina South Carolina Virginia New Mexico Oklahoma Texas USA1,1161,288 SE = 71.3%; V-C = 13.4%; SW = 15.3% of acreage in 2010

3 What will acreage do in 2011? What cultivars will be planted? What will be the major challenges in 2011?

4 What will acreage do in 2011? – Down from the 18,000 in 2010 – Not sure how far but some good contracts were offered – Major factor was new EPA regulations governing the use of Vapam for CBR and nematode control What cultivars will be planted? – Bailey, Sugg, Perry, Phillips, CHAMPS (in order from high to low)

5 What will be major challenges in 2011? – EPA regulations on Vapam use – Loss of Temik

6 What will acreage do in 2011? – Down slightly from 2010…maybe 5%, about 80,000 What cultivars will be planted? – Vast majority in Virginia types, maybe 5% runner – CHAMPS, Perry, Phillips, NC-V11, some Bailey and Gregory

7 What will be major challenges in 2011? – Weed control – Managing CBR due to soybeans in rotation – Fumigant changes – Overall expense of production

8 What will acreage do in 2011? – Flat… about the same as 2010, about 65,000 What cultivars will be planted? – Virginia: predominantly CHAMPS and NC-V 11, with some Florida Fancy, Bailey, and Perry – Runner: Georgia Greener, if can get seed that will germinate; second choice is Georgia-06G; Florida-07 for high O/L contract premium

9 What will be major challenges in 2011? – Timely rain always #1 concern – Resistant pigweed control – Everything else we can handle if we get the rain!

10 What will acreage do in 2011? – We are expecting a reduction of 10% but it may be down more than that What cultivars will be planted? – Mainly Valencia-C, Valencia-A, GenTex-136, GenTex-112, GenTex-118, GenTex-119, and GenTex-122

11 What will be major challenges in 2011? – Even at $800 - $1,000 per ton, it is difficult to find growers willing to sign a contract – They are anticipating more cotton acreage in New Mexico

12 What will acreage do in 2011? – I think our acreage will stay around the 20,000 acre range – Over the past couple of years we have seen some of the “old” peanut ground come back What cultivars will be planted? – A shift back to Spanish cultivars – I think nearly half of the acres will be Spanish, mainly Tamnut OL06 and AT – The other half split between Virginia (Jupiter) and Runner (Tamrun OL07 and Red River Runner

13 What will be major challenges in 2011? – Biggest competition is going to be for cotton acres – Water is not that big of an issue in most of the peanut growing areas – Biggest challenge may be for those old producers that have been out of peanuts for the last 10 years to quickly catch up with what has happened since they last grew the crop – Producers are finally excited again to grow peanuts

14 What will acreage do in 2011? – Texas will likely be down in acres in 2011, 10% predicted, but could be higher What cultivars will be planted? – Runner: Flavorrunner 458 and Tamrun OL07 – Virginia: Gregory and AT07V – Spanish: Olin and Tamnut OL06 – Valencia: Valencia C

15 What will be major challenges in 2011? – Major factors in Texas (bet you never heard this before) water and price or price and water – Large percentage of TX acres rotated with cotton and the cotton and peanut price differential will definitely play a part in the decision – Well capacity since over 98% of acres are irrigated. Marginal wells will likely go to cotton

16 What will be major challenges in 2011? – Finally, we are extremely dry in Texas right now and dry subsoil moisture conditions typically favor cotton planting

17 What will acreage do in 2011? – MS peanut acreage is expected to decrease – We were at 18,000 acres in 2010 and am estimating 14,000 – 14,500 acres in 2011 What cultivars will be planted? – Georgia-06G will be on the majority of acres this year – Interest in Florida-07 in southern MS but they are too full season for north MS – Interest in Georgia Greener but will not have many acres due to seed problems

18 What will be major challenges in 2011? – Economics – a few growers booked (contracted) some peanuts but the majority are seeing cotton as a more profitable crop for 2011

19 What will acreage do in 2011? – Even at $650/ton we are expecting about a 10% reduction in acreage – That would put FL at about 130,000 acres What cultivars will be planted? – Georgia-06G as the dominant cultivar, followed by Florida-07, Georgia-07W, Tifguard, and AP-4 – Several folks were going to plant Georgia Greener but germination problems changed that

20 What cultivars will be planted? – Will see some minor acreage of Georgia Green in the Williston area where TSWV is not a problem What will be major challenges in 2011? – Dry weather early and weed control problems that go along with that and Palmer amaranth – We’ve had a lot of tillage that has already been done with the dry weather – We need to limit tillage to conserve moisture

21 What will acreage do in 2011? – Slight decrease in 2011, going from 185,000 in 2010 to around a 10% decrease to 165,000 to 170,000 – The decrease will come mainly from the newer production areas of the state that were predominantly cotton producing areas

22 What cultivars will be planted? – Georgia-06G will be planted on the majority of acres followed by Florida-07, Georgia Greener, Georgia-07W, and Tifguard

23 What will be major challenges in 2011? – Economics will be a challenge for all producers and an obstacle for some – Some producers contracted at $550/ton – This is a year when they will have to be very mindful of their spending since inputs have been on the rise – For instance, they didn’t even know what seed costs would be

24 What will be major challenges in 2011? – Producers have seen what fuel prices have done – A lot of producers are turning their land due to pigweed issues (which increases fuel use) – Some producers are going for thicker cover to help block sunlight, preventing weeds from germinating – This is a concern since this is a La Nina cycle when moisture may be critical and there is a fear of cover crops competing for moisture

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26 YearPlanted Acres , , , , ,000 *1909 – 1923, all less than 500,000 acres **Since 1925, only 5 years in which less than 500,000 planted acres in Georgia

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28 (lbs/A) Tubbs hired

29 (lbs/A) Release of GA-06G, FL-07, Tifguard

30 5-Year Average Yields in Georgia, Years5-Year Average Yield

31 10-Year Average Yields in Georgia, Years10-Year Average Yield

32 Highest Average Yields in Georgia YearYield

33 Highest Average Yields in Georgia YearYield

34 What cultivars will be planted? – Georgia-06G will be planted on 75-80% of acreage – Georgia Greener and Georgia-07W are very popular but seed supply not sufficient – Tifguard will be in even more demand due to the loss of Temik

35 What will be major challenges in 2011? – Will we receive timely rainfall – we could see a higher percentage of peanut acreage under non-irrigated conditions – Nematode control without Temik and insufficient seed supply of Tifguard – Continued control of Palmer amaranth (herbicide resistant pigweed) – Burrower bug – was it a once in a generation problem last year?

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37 What will be major challenges in 2011? – Potential loss of Georgia Automated Environmental Monitoring Network (www.georgiaweather.net)

38 State 2010 Planted Acres U.S. Peanut Specialists’ Est.* 2011 Acres??? Alabama %170 Florida %130 Georgia %450 Mississippi19- 20%15 North Carolina87- 5%83 South Carolina670 Virginia18- ?15 New Mexico10- 10%9 Oklahoma220 Texas %150 USA1,2881,111** *SWAG of each specialist **13.7% reduction

39 YearPlanted Acres , , , , ,000 *1909 – 1923, all less than 500,000 acres **Since 1925, only 5 years in which less than 500,000 planted acres in Georgia

40 State 2010 Planted Acres U.S. Peanut Specialists’ Est.* 2011 Acres?? 2009 Planted Acres Alabama % Florida % Georgia % Mississippi19- 20%1521 North Carolina87- 5%8367 South Carolina Virginia18- ?1512 New Mexico10- 10%97 Oklahoma Texas % USA1,2881,111**1,116 *SWAG of each specialist**13.7% reduction

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