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Population Update for Recovery Committee January 30, 2008.

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Presentation on theme: "Population Update for Recovery Committee January 30, 2008."— Presentation transcript:

1 Population Update for Recovery Committee January 30, 2008

2 Population of New Orleans  As of January 1, 2008, the population of New Orleans is estimated to be 297,246, 65.2% of its July 2005 level  Over 40,000 residents returned or relocated to New Orleans in 2007  The city’s population grew steadily throughout the past year; however, the rate of return appears to have decreased in December. The rate of return will be monitored closely in the coming months to determine if the population of the City is indeed leveling out.

3 Estimating the Population  GCR’s population estimate is based on the application of a block-level “activity index” that measures indicators of residential return  The primary component of the activity index is a comparison of monthly counts of utility usage to comparable pre-Katrina periods  Other indicators are used to gauge and verify the accuracy of the utility data, such as building permits, garbage can registrations, active postal accounts, school enrollment, and voter participation

4 Voting and Population Trends are Consistent  While the residential “activity index” is a primary source for GCR’s population estimates, votes cast in recent elections provide another measure of the number of people in the community.  A comparison of the number of votes cast in the gubernatorial primary elections in 2007 and 2003 provides an interesting insight into the population of New Orleans.  While fewer votes were cast in the 2007 gubernatorial election in Orleans Parish, the ratio of votes cast to resident population remained constant. Population and Votes Cast in Gubernatorial Primaries

5 Public School Enrollment  In the fall of 2004, 62,646 students were enrolled in public schools in Orleans Parish  The level of public school enrollment for fall 2007 was 30,400, or 49% of its 2004 level  This recent count is within 1% of the student population forecasted by GCR in the summer. The close correlation confirms the usage of the activity index as a metric for estimating and projecting the city’s population

6 Imminent Population Trends  Based on recent monthly changes in population, the population of New Orleans should exceed 300,000 in the first quarter of 2008  Exceeding the 300,000 threshold will constitute a major milestone and will restore New Orleans to the cohort of “major” central cities CityPopulation (July 2006) Pittsburgh, PA312,819 Cincinnati, OH332,252 Tampa, FL332,888 Anaheim, CA334,425 St. Louis, MO353,837 Examples of U.S. cities with populations of approximately 300, ,000

7 Population by City Council District District July 2005 January 2007 January 2008 % Returned A90,31457,81564, % B91,25455,16260, % C91,94082,67283, % D91,14630,15843, % E90,93928,85844, %

8 Resettlement of New Orleans Population, January 1, 2008

9 Population by ZIP Code  Some heavily affected ZIP Codes, such as 70117, 70112, and 70126, house less than half of their pre-Katrina population  Overall, the east bank has 61% of its pre-storm population, and the west bank has 101% of its July 2005 residents ZIP Code July 2005 Population January 2008 Population % Returned ,9791, % ,7966, % ,81225, % ,94932, % ,86313, % ,18320, % ,94028, % ,80628, % ,67121, % ,69011, % ,09710, % ,38417, % ,78817, % ,11612, % ,0748, % ,88413, % ,56327, % Total455,594297, %

10 Return of Population by ZIP Code

11 Return of Population by Neighborhood

12 Neighborhood Repopulation and Growth Edgelake/Little Woods10,789 Lakeview3,206 READ Boulevard West B2,550 Mid-City2,216 Seventh Ward1,609 St. Roch1,539 St. Claude1,346 Read Boulevard East1,146 Gentilly Terrace1,099 Broadmoor1,040 Lower Ninth Ward9.9% Pontchartrain Park33.9% Holy Cross37.1% St. Anthony37.7% Fillmore39.8% Milneburg40.6% Pines Village43.4% Mid-City44.1% Lakeview44.2% Lakewood45.7% Neighborhoods Larger Today than July 2005 Greatest Change in Population in 2007 Lowest Percentage of July 2005 Population Returned Warehouse District142.0% River Park/Cut Off/Lower Coast 110.8% Garden District107.0% Touro105.2% Algiers Naval Station103.6% Vieux Carre103.4% Aurora/Walnut Bend/Huntlee Village 102.0% Algiers Point100.5% St. Thomas Area/Lower Garden District 100.3% Marigny100.2% * Excludes neighborhoods constituted entirely of public housing

13 Neighborhoods Larger Today than July 2005

14 Neighborhoods with Greatest Change in 2007

15 Neighborhoods with Lowest Percentage of Returns

16 Return of Population in Target Recovery Zones

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18 Residential Permits Issued  Permit data indicates that demolition activity throughout the city continues at a steady pace  Permits issued for new construction increased throughout the latter half of 2007  The number of renovation permits issued by the city has now tapered off to a level comparable to periods prior to Hurricane Katrina YearRenovation New Construction Demolition , , ,4061,1153,187 Residential Permits by Type, YearRenovation New Construction Demolition , Average Monthly Permits,

19 Issuance of Permits, During the same period, 9,371 demolition permits and 1,878 new construction permits have been approved 40,712 renovation permits have been issued Katrina

20 Renovation Permits Issued Since Katrina

21 Demolition Permits Issued Since Katrina

22 New Construction Permits Issued Since Katrina

23 Snapshots of Recovery  The following slides illustrate resettlement patterns in the City over time: July 2006 thru December These maps demonstrate how repopulation has radiated outward from areas which recovered quickly after the storm.  In each of these maps, red represents areas in which activity is less than 20% of its pre-Katrina level. Green represents areas in which activity is greater than 80% of its pre-Katrina level. Yellow and orange display areas in between.  Boundaries of New Orleans City Council Districts are also displayed. To illustrate neighborhood level repopulation trends, neighborhood boundaries have been provided for the most recent month.

24 Resettlement Patterns: July 1, 2006

25 Resettlement Patterns: October 1, 2006

26 Resettlement Patterns: March 1, 2007

27 Resettlement Patterns: July 1, 2007

28 Resettlement Patterns: October 1, 2007

29 Resettlement Patterns: January 1, 2008

30 GCR & Associates, Inc. Gregory C. Rigamer fax Lakeshore Drive New Orleans, LA UNO Research & Technology Park Advanced Technology Center


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