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Eurasia Energy Policy Case Study Russia – Ukraine Relations Vittorio Pagliaro.

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Presentation on theme: "Eurasia Energy Policy Case Study Russia – Ukraine Relations Vittorio Pagliaro."— Presentation transcript:

1 Eurasia Energy Policy Case Study Russia – Ukraine Relations Vittorio Pagliaro

2 Entire Region

3 Baltic, Central-Eastern Europe, Balkans

4 Caucasus and Central Asia

5 What is Eurasia? Eurasia is the landmass made of the continents of Europe and Asia Eurasia is the landmass made of the continents of Europe and Asia With the dissolution of the Soviet bloc, new developments are sweeping through Eurasia With the dissolution of the Soviet bloc, new developments are sweeping through Eurasia The Former Caucasus Soviet Republics and the Central Asia Republics make up the core of the New Eurasia The Former Caucasus Soviet Republics and the Central Asia Republics make up the core of the New Eurasia Can the West formulate a new approach to the new Political and Economical Dynamics of the Eurasia Landmass? Can the West formulate a new approach to the new Political and Economical Dynamics of the Eurasia Landmass?

6 Russia, East-Central Europe, and Central Asia: Overview and Economic History Early settlements— tribes in Caucasus area before 20,000 B.C. Slavic tribes date to 2,000 B.C. in eastern Carpathians, spread west to Czech area, east to Russia, south to Balkans. Early settlements— tribes in Caucasus area before 20,000 B.C. Slavic tribes date to 2,000 B.C. in eastern Carpathians, spread west to Czech area, east to Russia, south to Balkans. Greek realm united after 359 B.C. by Philip of Macedon, and his son Alexander conquered most of Persia, spreading Greek culture through an enormous empire. Greek realm united after 359 B.C. by Philip of Macedon, and his son Alexander conquered most of Persia, spreading Greek culture through an enormous empire.

7 The Roman Empire: 14 A.C. and 177 A.C. Romans conquered Alexander’s western empire and much of Europe. Empire divided East-West in 285 A.C. Romans conquered Alexander’s western empire and much of Europe. Empire divided East-West in 285 A.C.

8 Byzantine Empire in 814 Byzantine empire preserved classical civilization after Rome fell in 476 A.C. Eastern church adopted Greek liturgy. Led to schism in Byzantine empire preserved classical civilization after Rome fell in 476 A.C. Eastern church adopted Greek liturgy. Led to schism in 1054.

9 Bulgaria (632–1018): First Slav State in the 6th century A.D. The First Bulgarian Empire was a medieval Bulgarian State founded in A. C. 632 in the lands near the Danube Delta and disintegrated in A. C after its annexation to the Byzantine Empire

10 Principalities of the Kievan Rus Kievan Rus: On trade route, Kiev became capital of Russian city- states during 9th century. Kievans were cosmopolitan, but adoption of Eastern Orthodoxy in 980 contributed to Eastern separation Kievan Rus: On trade route, Kiev became capital of Russian city- states during 9th century. Kievans were cosmopolitan, but adoption of Eastern Orthodoxy in 980 contributed to Eastern separation

11 1054 The Great Schism The East-West Schism, or the Great Schism, divided medieval Christendom into Eastern (Greek) and Western (Latin) branches, which later became known as the Eastern Orthodox Church and the Roman Catholic Church The East-West Schism, or the Great Schism, divided medieval Christendom into Eastern (Greek) and Western (Latin) branches, which later became known as the Eastern Orthodox Church and the Roman Catholic Church ChristendomEastern Orthodox ChurchRoman Catholic Church ChristendomEastern Orthodox ChurchRoman Catholic Church

12 The Spread of Islam: Mongol and Turkish Conquests in 13th- 17th centuries devastated Central Eurasia, severed Western ties, and caused Russian capital to move to Moscow, which became the “Third Rome” after the fall of Constantinople/Istan bul in Czechs, Slovaks, Poles, and Slovenes avoided Ottoman domination; Hungary and Croatia were liberated early Mongol and Turkish Conquests in 13th- 17th centuries devastated Central Eurasia, severed Western ties, and caused Russian capital to move to Moscow, which became the “Third Rome” after the fall of Constantinople/Istan bul in Czechs, Slovaks, Poles, and Slovenes avoided Ottoman domination; Hungary and Croatia were liberated early

13 The Mongol Empire and Tamerlane: 1206–1405 The Mongol Empire was an empire from the 13th and 14th century spanning from Eastern Europe across Asia. It is the largest contiguous empire in the history of the world. It emerged from the unification of Mongol and Turkic tribes in modern day Mongolia, and grew through invasions13th14th centuryEastern EuropeAsialargest contiguous empireMongolTurkicMongolia invasions Timur (1336–1405), commonly known as Tamerlane in the West,was a 14th century Turko-Mongol conqueror of much of western and Central Asia, and founder of the Timurid Empire and Timurid dynasty (1370– 1405) in Central Asia, which survived until 1857 as the Mughal Empire of India Turko-Mongol Central AsiaTimurid Empire and Timurid dynastyMughal Empire

14 The Ottoman Empire, Expansion and Apogee : The Ottoman Empire was an empire that lasted from 1299 to November 1922 (as an imperial monarchy) or July 24, 1923 (de jure, as a state) It was succeeded by the Republic of Turkey,which was officially proclaimed on October 29, The Ottoman Empire was an empire that lasted from 1299 to November 1922 (as an imperial monarchy) or July 24, 1923 (de jure, as a state) It was succeeded by the Republic of Turkey,which was officially proclaimed on October 29, At the height of its power (16th– 17th century), it spanned three continents, controlling much of Southeastern Europe, the Middle East and North Africa. The Ottoman Empire contained 29 provinces and numerous vassal states; some of which were later absorbed into the empire, while others gained various types of autonomy during the course of centuries. At the height of its power (16th– 17th century), it spanned three continents, controlling much of Southeastern Europe, the Middle East and North Africa. The Ottoman Empire contained 29 provinces and numerous vassal states; some of which were later absorbed into the empire, while others gained various types of autonomy during the course of centuries. The empire was at the centre of interactions between the Eastern and Western worlds for six centuries. With Constantinople as its capital city, and vast control of lands around the eastern Mediterranean during the reign of Suleiman the Magnificent, the Ottoman Empire was, in many respects, an Islamic successor to the Eastern Roman (Byzantine Empire), The empire was at the centre of interactions between the Eastern and Western worlds for six centuries. With Constantinople as its capital city, and vast control of lands around the eastern Mediterranean during the reign of Suleiman the Magnificent, the Ottoman Empire was, in many respects, an Islamic successor to the Eastern Roman (Byzantine Empire),

15 Russian Empire The Russian Empire: from 1721 until the Russian Revolution of It was the successor to the Tsardom of Russia (Russian state between Ivan IV’s assumption of the title of Tsar (Emperor) in 1547 and Peter the Great's foundation of the Russian Empire in 1721., and the predecessor of the Soviet Union. It was the second largest contiguous empire the world had seen, surpassed only by the Mongol Empire. At one point in 1866, it stretched from eastern Europe, across Asia, and into North America. At the beginning of the 19th century, Russia was the largest country in the world, extending from the Arctic Ocean to the north to the Black Sea on the south, from the Baltic Sea on the west to the Pacific Ocean on the east. Across this vast realm were scattered the Emperor's million subjects, the third largest population of the world at the time, after Qing China and British India, but still represented a great disparity in economic, ethnic, and religious positions. Its government, ruled by the Emperor, was one of the last absolute monarchies left in Europe. Prior to the outbreak of World War I in August 1914 Russia was one of the five major Great Powers of Europe. The Russian Empire: from 1721 until the Russian Revolution of It was the successor to the Tsardom of Russia (Russian state between Ivan IV’s assumption of the title of Tsar (Emperor) in 1547 and Peter the Great's foundation of the Russian Empire in 1721., and the predecessor of the Soviet Union. It was the second largest contiguous empire the world had seen, surpassed only by the Mongol Empire. At one point in 1866, it stretched from eastern Europe, across Asia, and into North America. At the beginning of the 19th century, Russia was the largest country in the world, extending from the Arctic Ocean to the north to the Black Sea on the south, from the Baltic Sea on the west to the Pacific Ocean on the east. Across this vast realm were scattered the Emperor's million subjects, the third largest population of the world at the time, after Qing China and British India, but still represented a great disparity in economic, ethnic, and religious positions. Its government, ruled by the Emperor, was one of the last absolute monarchies left in Europe. Prior to the outbreak of World War I in August 1914 Russia was one of the five major Great Powers of Europe.

16 Russia: From Peter the Grate to Revolutionary Movements Peter the Great and Russian Expansion (18th-19th Centuries) Peter the Great and Russian Expansion (18th-19th Centuries) After Russian independence from Mongols in 1452, isolationism and feudal institutions. After Russian independence from Mongols in 1452, isolationism and feudal institutions. Early in 18th century, Peter the Great: Early in 18th century, Peter the Great: 1. Introduced Western science, technology, art, and architecture. 1. Introduced Western science, technology, art, and architecture. 2. Moved capital to St. Petersburg. 2. Moved capital to St. Petersburg. 3. Avoided Western political and economic philosophies. 3. Avoided Western political and economic philosophies. 4. Levied heavy taxes and imposed forced labor. 4. Levied heavy taxes and imposed forced labor. 5. Mounted territorial expansion and industrialization. 5. Mounted territorial expansion and industrialization. Emancipation and Industrialization ( ) Emancipation and Industrialization ( ) Long maintenance of feudalism thwarted Russian development, led to defeat in Crimean War (fought during against the British and French, who were protecting the Ottoman Empire from destruction by the Russians). Long maintenance of feudalism thwarted Russian development, led to defeat in Crimean War (fought during against the British and French, who were protecting the Ottoman Empire from destruction by the Russians). Emancipation Decree of 1861 nominally abolished serfdom Emancipation Decree of 1861 nominally abolished serfdom 1. Serfs freed from the arbitrary rule. 1. Serfs freed from the arbitrary rule. 2. Land given to serfs, but: 2. Land given to serfs, but: a. Better land kept by gentry. a. Better land kept by gentry. b. Serfs required to pay redemption payments and taxes. b. Serfs required to pay redemption payments and taxes. c. Land held collectively by village communes, responsible for tax collection and apportionment. Handled by inefficient strip agriculture. c. Land held collectively by village communes, responsible for tax collection and apportionment. Handled by inefficient strip agriculture. 3. Tax and redemption payments forced agricultural sales and exports, monetized the economy, and supported railroad construction boom, which supported production of iron, steel, and petroleum 3. Tax and redemption payments forced agricultural sales and exports, monetized the economy, and supported railroad construction boom, which supported production of iron, steel, and petroleum Emancipation and industrialization caused little improvement in the living standards. Revolutionary movements began Emancipation and industrialization caused little improvement in the living standards. Revolutionary movements began

17 The Russian Revolutions and World War I ( ) Russian Social Democrats, first congresses in 1903 called for overthrow of monarchy and the adoption of socialism. Russian Social Democrats, first congresses in 1903 called for overthrow of monarchy and the adoption of socialism. Mensheviks—Russia not ready for socialism; party should be mass organization. Mensheviks—Russia not ready for socialism; party should be mass organization. V.I. Lenin Bolsheviks—Russia was ripe for socialism; membership restricted to elite revolutionaries. V.I. Lenin Bolsheviks—Russia was ripe for socialism; membership restricted to elite revolutionaries Revolution—Bloody Sunday precipitated demonstrations and general strike in October. Tsar granted formation of Duma, and Stolypin reforms helped agricultural peasants Revolution—Bloody Sunday precipitated demonstrations and general strike in October. Tsar granted formation of Duma, and Stolypin reforms helped agricultural peasants. World War I arose from Balkan struggle for independence. World War I arose from Balkan struggle for independence. In Russia, WWI exacted horrible price, led to food riots, forcing Tsar to abdicate. Kerensky’s provisional government acted slowly, was overthrown by Bolsheviks with little fighting in November In Russia, WWI exacted horrible price, led to food riots, forcing Tsar to abdicate. Kerensky’s provisional government acted slowly, was overthrown by Bolsheviks with little fighting in November In Treaty of Versailles, 1919, regions of Habsburg empire ceded to Serbian, Czech, and Polish control In Treaty of Versailles, 1919, regions of Habsburg empire ceded to Serbian, Czech, and Polish control

18 First Russian Communism War Communism ( ) War Communism ( ) New Bolshevik leaders faced problems. New Bolshevik leaders faced problems. Promise of socialism. Promise of socialism. Consolidation of Bolshevik rule. Consolidation of Bolshevik rule. Allied invasion after 1918 Brest-Litovsk Treaty Allied invasion after 1918 Brest-Litovsk Treaty Provisions of War Communism Provisions of War Communism Confiscation of private and church land without compensation. Confiscation of private and church land without compensation. Forcibly extracted "surpluses" from agricultural workers. Forcibly extracted "surpluses" from agricultural workers. Goods and food rationed, private trade outlawed. Goods and food rationed, private trade outlawed. Most industrial enterprises nationalized and administered by commissariats headed by Vesenkha. Most industrial enterprises nationalized and administered by commissariats headed by Vesenkha. "Labor armies" rebuilt roads and railways, and worked in mines. "Labor armies" rebuilt roads and railways, and worked in mines. Performance Performance Production plummeted, arising from poor work incentives, concealment of surpluses, and chaotic management, but also from wartime disruption. Production plummeted, arising from poor work incentives, concealment of surpluses, and chaotic management, but also from wartime disruption.

19 New Economic Policy The New Economic Policy ( ) The New Economic Policy ( ) Design—a temporary experiment in market socialism 1. Progressive agricultural tax. 1. Progressive agricultural tax. 2. Private trade was legalized. 2. Private trade was legalized. 3. Small enterprises leased to entre­ preneurs and larger enterprises operated as public trusts. Only "the commanding heights of in­dustry" were kept under direct governmental control. 3. Small enterprises leased to entre­ preneurs and larger enterprises operated as public trusts. Only "the commanding heights of in­dustry" were kept under direct governmental control. 4. Freer labor mobility, market-determined wages, and pro-labor legislation. 4. Freer labor mobility, market-determined wages, and pro-labor legislation. Performance—After 1921, NEP supported rapid recovery, but with rising inequality.

20 The Industrialization Debate Stimulated by the Scissors Crisis and Lenin's death in Stimulated by the Scissors Crisis and Lenin's death in Bukharin and "right-deviation" faction Continuation of the market-oriented policies of NEP, following comparative advantage in agriculture. Continuation of the market-oriented policies of NEP, following comparative advantage in agriculture. Maintain smychka, or alliance, between agricultural and industrial workers. Maintain smychka, or alliance, between agricultural and industrial workers. Agricultural investments in the short run would most effectively support industrial development in the long run. Agricultural investments in the short run would most effectively support industrial development in the long run. Trotsky, Preobrazhensky, and “left-deviation" faction NEP will lead to return of capitalism NEP will lead to return of capitalism USSR, surrounded by enemies, needs heavy industry. USSR, surrounded by enemies, needs heavy industry. Industrialization accelerated by exploitation of the private sector and agriculture. Industrialization accelerated by exploitation of the private sector and agriculture. Worldwide socialist revolution versus socialism in one country Planning debate—Geneticists versus teleologists.

21 The Planning Era The Planning Era Begins ( ) After vacillation, Stalin adopted a leftist and teleological strategy. The First Five-Year Plan called for rapid rates growth of all sectors, but highest for producer goods and lowest for agriculture. Fulfillment of the plan was even more leftist. After vacillation, Stalin adopted a leftist and teleological strategy. The First Five-Year Plan called for rapid rates growth of all sectors, but highest for producer goods and lowest for agriculture. Fulfillment of the plan was even more leftist. Falling agricultural production caused by low plan priority and violent collectivization. Industrialization strengthened the nation’s military stance, but eventually turned a major grain exporter into an importer. Falling agricultural production caused by low plan priority and violent collectivization. Industrialization strengthened the nation’s military stance, but eventually turned a major grain exporter into an importer.

22 After World War II ( ) From “capitalist encirclement,” and Soviet autarky, to the “socialist commonwealth.” From “capitalist encirclement,” and Soviet autarky, to the “socialist commonwealth.” Adoption of Soviet-style systems throughout region (Iron Curtain). Adoption of Soviet-style systems throughout region (Iron Curtain). Creation of Council for Mutual Economic Assistance to answer the Marshall Plan. Redirection of trade. Creation of Council for Mutual Economic Assistance to answer the Marshall Plan. Redirection of trade. East German, Romanian, and Hungarian reparations to USSR. East German, Romanian, and Hungarian reparations to USSR. Tito's Yugoslavia Impact of WWII. Impact of WWII. Tito’s hero status. Tito’s hero status. Initial acceptance of Soviet political/economic system. Initial acceptance of Soviet political/economic system. Conflicts with Stalin, 1948 expulsion from Comintern. Conflicts with Stalin, 1948 expulsion from Comintern. Reversal in 1950—acceptance of Western aid and adoption of labor self-management. Reversal in 1950—acceptance of Western aid and adoption of labor self-management.

23 After Stalin ( ) 1953 Stalin's death in Stalin's death in Khrushchev's denunciation of Stalin's terror 1956 Khrushchev's denunciation of Stalin's terror Albanian schism Albanian schism Hungarian revolt crushed by Soviet troops Hungarian revolt crushed by Soviet troops Upgrading of CMEA Upgrading of CMEA 1962 Basic Principles of the International Socialist Division of Labor called for specialization and integration of production Basic Principles of the International Socialist Division of Labor called for specialization and integration of production. Khrushchev’s abortive attempt to introduce supranational planning. Khrushchev’s abortive attempt to introduce supranational planning.

24 Early Reforms ( ) A. Soviet system inappropriate for small, trade- dependent countries. Hungary and Poland initiated reforms. A. Soviet system inappropriate for small, trade- dependent countries. Hungary and Poland initiated reforms. B. Deterioration of Soviet growth. Kosygin reforms of mid-1960s. B. Deterioration of Soviet growth. Kosygin reforms of mid-1960s. C. Watershed in 1968— Prague Spring and Hungarian New Economic Mechanism. C. Watershed in 1968— Prague Spring and Hungarian New Economic Mechanism. XIII. Prelude to the Fall ( ) 1970 Food price hikes in Poland lead to strikes, repression, and resignation of Gomulka Food price hikes in Poland lead to strikes, repression, and resignation of Gomulka Nixon visits Moscow, launches détente Nixon visits Moscow, launches détente Polish indebtedness culminates again in price hikes, strikes, repression Polish indebtedness culminates again in price hikes, strikes, repression Selection of Polish pope Selection of Polish pope Birth of Solidarity trade union in Poland Birth of Solidarity trade union in Poland Polish martial law Polish martial law.

25 The Dissolution of Soviet Empire The End and the New Beginning ( ) 1985 Mikhail Gorbachev takes office in the Soviet Union, introduces glasnost (openness) and perestroika (restructuring), and repudiates Brezhnev Doctrine Mikhail Gorbachev takes office in the Soviet Union, introduces glasnost (openness) and perestroika (restructuring), and repudiates Brezhnev Doctrine Mass demonstrations, destruction of Berlin Wall, removal of Communist leaders throughout the region Mass demonstrations, destruction of Berlin Wall, removal of Communist leaders throughout the region Balcerowicz “shock therapy” in Poland Balcerowicz “shock therapy” in Poland Abortive coup against Gorbachev causes Russian President Yeltsin to suspend Communist Party activities and Gorbachev to dissolve USSR Abortive coup against Gorbachev causes Russian President Yeltsin to suspend Communist Party activities and Gorbachev to dissolve USSR Vladimir Putin the New Zar of Russia 1999 Vladimir Putin the New Zar of Russia 2008 Dmitrij Medvedev become Republic President of Russia. Putin Prime Minister 2008 Dmitrij Medvedev become Republic President of Russia. Putin Prime Minister

26 PART 2: Overview on the energy policy in Eurasia Is there a pipelines war in Eurasia? Recent events like the conflict with Ukraine for the gas pipeline and the war against Georgia (where Russia is military presents in Abkhazia and South Ossetia) show it. Russia from one end, USA from the other tries to control the Eurasian Strategic Corridor. Iran, China and India are going to play a decisive role. Is there a pipelines war in Eurasia? Recent events like the conflict with Ukraine for the gas pipeline and the war against Georgia (where Russia is military presents in Abkhazia and South Ossetia) show it. Russia from one end, USA from the other tries to control the Eurasian Strategic Corridor. Iran, China and India are going to play a decisive role. The geopolitic balance of the region is based, not (not only) on religious or ethnic divisions, but on the energy policy: oil and gas fields and wells, pipelines networks and commercialization of raw materials The geopolitic balance of the region is based, not (not only) on religious or ethnic divisions, but on the energy policy: oil and gas fields and wells, pipelines networks and commercialization of raw materials One of the most important problems of the Russian distribution gas network is the original, centralized structure, following the Soviet Union philosophy. Instead, 90% of the Russian gas flow (Western Europe direction) goes trough Ukraine One of the most important problems of the Russian distribution gas network is the original, centralized structure, following the Soviet Union philosophy. Instead, 90% of the Russian gas flow (Western Europe direction) goes trough Ukraine The Central and Eastern Europe Nations like Germany, Austria, Italy, Baltic Countries, Czech Republic, Bulgaria, Slovakia, Poland, Serbia, Slovenia, Hungary needs to find alternative routes to gas supplies The Central and Eastern Europe Nations like Germany, Austria, Italy, Baltic Countries, Czech Republic, Bulgaria, Slovakia, Poland, Serbia, Slovenia, Hungary needs to find alternative routes to gas supplies

27 Geopolitical Pipelines

28 Gas Exporting Countries Forum (GECF) The Gas Exporting Countries Forum (GECF) is an organization of some of the world's leading gas producers. The members are Algeria, Bolivia, Brunei, Egypt, Equatorial Guinea, Indonesia, Iran, Libya, Malaysia, Nigeria, Qatar, Russia, Trinidad and Tobago, the United Arab Emirates and Venezuela. Kazakhstan and Norway are observers The Gas Exporting Countries Forum (GECF) is an organization of some of the world's leading gas producers. The members are Algeria, Bolivia, Brunei, Egypt, Equatorial Guinea, Indonesia, Iran, Libya, Malaysia, Nigeria, Qatar, Russia, Trinidad and Tobago, the United Arab Emirates and Venezuela. Kazakhstan and Norway are observers The GECF was established in Tehran in Until the seventh ministerial meeting in Moscow, it operated without charter and fixed membership structure. The seventh ministerial meeting, held on 23 December 2008 in Moscow, adapted the organization's charter The GECF was established in Tehran in Until the seventh ministerial meeting in Moscow, it operated without charter and fixed membership structure. The seventh ministerial meeting, held on 23 December 2008 in Moscow, adapted the organization's charter The objectives of the GECF are: to foster the concept of mutuality of interests by favouring dialogue between producers, between producers and consumers and between governments and energy-related industries; to provide a platform to promote study and exchange of views; to promote a stable and transparent energy market The objectives of the GECF are: to foster the concept of mutuality of interests by favouring dialogue between producers, between producers and consumers and between governments and energy-related industries; to provide a platform to promote study and exchange of views; to promote a stable and transparent energy market GECF does not have headquarters yet; Qatar's national oil company Qatar Petroleum serves as a GECF Liaison Office. Although Russia's Prime Minister Vladimir Putin offered to give GECF full diplomatic status in a location in St. Petersburg, it was decided on 23 December 2008 to set up an Executive Office and a Secretariat in Doha, Qatar. The Secretary General will be elected on the eight ministerial meeting GECF does not have headquarters yet; Qatar's national oil company Qatar Petroleum serves as a GECF Liaison Office. Although Russia's Prime Minister Vladimir Putin offered to give GECF full diplomatic status in a location in St. Petersburg, it was decided on 23 December 2008 to set up an Executive Office and a Secretariat in Doha, Qatar. The Secretary General will be elected on the eight ministerial meeting

29 OIL PRODUCTION IN THE WORLD NUMBERCOUNTRY OIL DRUMS (MILLION PER YEAR) % ON TOTAL 1 Arabia Saudita ,9 2Iran ,4 3Iraq ,5 9,5 4Kuwait ,4 8,4 5 Emirati Arabi Uniti ,1 8,1 6Venezuela ,6 6,6 7Russia ,6 6,6 8Libia ,5 3,5 9Kazakhstan ,3 3,3 10Nigeria ,0 3,0 11USA ,5 2,5 12Canada ,4 1,4 13Cina ,3 1,3 14Qatar ,2 1,2 15Messico ,1 1,1 16Algeria ,0 1,0 17Brasile ,0 1,0 18Angola ,7 0,7 19Norvegia ,7 0,7 20Azerbaijan ,6 0,6 21 Resto del Mondo ,2 6,2 Tot %

30 GAS PRODUCTION AND RESERVES NUMBERCOUNTRY GAS (BILLION CUBIC METRE PER YEAR) RESERVES (BILLION CUBIC METRE) 1Russia607, Stati Uniti 526, Canada178, United Kingdom 103, Algeria 95,12 95, Norvegia 84,96 84, Iraq 83,20 83, Indonesia 82,76 82, Iran 81,99 81, Nederlands 74,20 74, Arabia Saudita 63,99 63, Uzbekistan 58,01 58, Turkmenistan 57,31 57, Malesia 52,69 52, Cina 51,19 51, Emirati Arabi Uniti 45,22 45, Qatar 40,39 40, Australia 40,07 40, Egitto 30,81 30, Venezuela Kazakistan 21,87 21, Nigeria 20,81 20,

31 Dependence Upon Russian Natural Gas by Selected European Countries Natural Gas Imports from RussiaQuantity (billion cu. ft./yr) % of Domestic Consumption Germany 1,290 39% Italy % Turkey % France % Austria % Poland % Netherlands 94 6% Greece 78 82% Sweden 39 Zero or less than 0.5% Belgium 7 1% Denmark Zero or less than 500 million cubic feet Zero or less than 0.5% Ireland Zero or less than 500 million cubic feet Zero or less than 0.5% Portugal Zero or less than 500 million cubic feet Zero or less than 0.5% Spain Zero or less than 500 million cubic feet Zero or less than 0.5% United Kingdom Zero or less than 500 million cubic feet Zero or less than 0.5%

32 Dependence Upon Russian Natural Gas by Selected Former Soviet and Soviet Satellite Countries COUNTRY BILLION CUBIC FEET % OF DOMESTIC CONSUMPTION Ukraine % Belarus % Hungary % Czech Republic % Slovakia % Poland % Finland % Romania % Lithuania % Bulgaria 99 99% Moldova % Latvia % Georgia % Estonia % Slovenia 20 52% Japan 85%

33 Oilpipelines and Gaspipelines in Russia, European Union and Middle-East Naftohaz Ukrainy: Ukraine Pipeline. According to the contract on 21 June 2002, signed between Gazprom and Naftohaz, the payment for the transfer of Russian natural gas through Ukrainian pipeline system had been made in the form of barter exchange – up to 15% of gas pumped through the Ukrainian territory was taken by Ukraine instead of payments in cash. This contract was supposed to be valid until the end of 2013 Naftohaz Ukrainy: Ukraine Pipeline. According to the contract on 21 June 2002, signed between Gazprom and Naftohaz, the payment for the transfer of Russian natural gas through Ukrainian pipeline system had been made in the form of barter exchange – up to 15% of gas pumped through the Ukrainian territory was taken by Ukraine instead of payments in cash. This contract was supposed to be valid until the end of 2013 Betransgaz: On May 18, 2007, in Minsk, Russia’s Gazprom and the Belarus government’s State Property Committee signed agreements to turn the Belarus state-owned gas pipeline company Beltransgaz into a Russia- Belarus joint company. Betransgaz handles both the transit of Russian gas to European Union countries and the internal distribution of Russian gas in Belarus. Betransgaz: On May 18, 2007, in Minsk, Russia’s Gazprom and the Belarus government’s State Property Committee signed agreements to turn the Belarus state-owned gas pipeline company Beltransgaz into a Russia- Belarus joint company. Betransgaz handles both the transit of Russian gas to European Union countries and the internal distribution of Russian gas in Belarus.

34 Gas Pipelines

35 Routes of the pipelines from Russia to Europe

36 Alternative Routes to Ukraine Yamal-Europe pipelineThe planning of the Yamal-Europe pipeline started in Intergovernmental agreements between Russia, Belarus and Poland were signed in In 1994, Wingas, the joint venture of Gazprom and Wintershall, a subsidiary of BASF, started building the German section of the pipeline. The first gas was delivered to Germany through the Belarus-Polish corridor in The Belarusian and Polish sections were completed in September 1999 and the pipeline reached its rated annual capacity of about 33 billion cubic meters of natural gas in 2005, after completion of all compressor stations. Yamal-Europe pipelineThe planning of the Yamal-Europe pipeline started in Intergovernmental agreements between Russia, Belarus and Poland were signed in In 1994, Wingas, the joint venture of Gazprom and Wintershall, a subsidiary of BASF, started building the German section of the pipeline. The first gas was delivered to Germany through the Belarus-Polish corridor in The Belarusian and Polish sections were completed in September 1999 and the pipeline reached its rated annual capacity of about 33 billion cubic meters of natural gas in 2005, after completion of all compressor stations. Blue Stream (IGIT Pipeline) is a major trans-Black Sea gas pipeline that carries natural gas from Russia into Turkey. The pipeline has been constructed by the Blue Stream Pipeline B.V., the Netherlands based joint venture of Russian Gazprom and Italian Eni. The Blue Stream Pipeline B.V. is an owner of the subsea section of pipeline, including Beregovaya compressor station, while Gazprom owns and operates the Russian land section of the pipeline and the Turkish land section is owned and operated by the Turkish energy company BOTAŞ. According to Gazprom the pipeline was built with the intent of diversifying Russian gas delivery routes to Turkey and avoiding third countries. Blue Stream (IGIT Pipeline) is a major trans-Black Sea gas pipeline that carries natural gas from Russia into Turkey. The pipeline has been constructed by the Blue Stream Pipeline B.V., the Netherlands based joint venture of Russian Gazprom and Italian Eni. The Blue Stream Pipeline B.V. is an owner of the subsea section of pipeline, including Beregovaya compressor station, while Gazprom owns and operates the Russian land section of the pipeline and the Turkish land section is owned and operated by the Turkish energy company BOTAŞ. According to Gazprom the pipeline was built with the intent of diversifying Russian gas delivery routes to Turkey and avoiding third countries. Betransgaz On May 18, 2007, in Minsk, Russia’s Gazprom and the Belarus government’s State Property Committee signed agreements to turn the Belarus state-owned gas pipeline company Beltransgaz into a Russia-Belarus joint company. Betransgaz handles both the transit of Russian gas to European Union countries and the internal distribution of Russian gas in Belarus. Betransgaz On May 18, 2007, in Minsk, Russia’s Gazprom and the Belarus government’s State Property Committee signed agreements to turn the Belarus state-owned gas pipeline company Beltransgaz into a Russia-Belarus joint company. Betransgaz handles both the transit of Russian gas to European Union countries and the internal distribution of Russian gas in Belarus. Nabucco pipeline is a planned natural gas pipeline that will transport natural gas from Turkey to Austria, via Bulgaria, Romania, and Hungary. It will run from Erzurum in Turkey to Baumgarten an der March, a major natural gas hub in Austria. This pipeline is a diversion from the current methods of importing natural gas solely from Russia. The project is backed by several European Union states and the United States. Nabucco pipeline is a planned natural gas pipeline that will transport natural gas from Turkey to Austria, via Bulgaria, Romania, and Hungary. It will run from Erzurum in Turkey to Baumgarten an der March, a major natural gas hub in Austria. This pipeline is a diversion from the current methods of importing natural gas solely from Russia. The project is backed by several European Union states and the United States.natural gasnatural gas Nord Stream North Transgas and North European Gas Pipeline; also known as the Russo– German gas pipeline or the Baltic Sea gas pipeline) is a planned natural gas pipeline from Russia to Germany by the company Nord Stream AG Nord Stream North Transgas and North European Gas Pipeline; also known as the Russo– German gas pipeline or the Baltic Sea gas pipeline) is a planned natural gas pipeline from Russia to Germany by the company Nord Stream AG

37 Alternative Routes To Ukraine

38 Nabucco Pipeline Project In Detail

39 Baltic Pipeline Project In Detail

40 Geopolitical Pipelines – Alternative Routes out of Russian Control GUAM-NATO Alliance Pipeline Odessa-Brody-Plotsk (OBP) from Ukraine to Polonia Pipeline Bakou Tbilisi Ceyhan (BTC) from Caspian Sea to Mediterranean and Turkey Project of Submarine Pipeline Trans-Israël-Eilat- Ashkelon (TIEA) from Caspian Sea to Israel Project TRACECA, Silk Road Stategy (SRS), a multichannel Corridor Europe, Caucasus, Asia Kazakhstan-Chine Pipeline (KCP), a gas pipeline from Kazakhstan to Autonomous Region of Xinjian

41 The Odessa-Brody-Plotsk (OBP) Pipeline

42 The Baku Tblisi Ceyan (BTC) Pipeline

43 Project of Submarine Pipeline Trans-Israël-Eilat- Ashkelon (TIEA) from Caspian Sea to Israel Israel is now part of the Anglo- American military axis, which serves the interests of the Western oil giants in the Middle East and Central Asia. Not surprisingly, Israel has military cooperation agreements with Georgia and Azerbaijan Israel is now part of the Anglo- American military axis, which serves the interests of the Western oil giants in the Middle East and Central Asia. Not surprisingly, Israel has military cooperation agreements with Georgia and Azerbaijan an underwater Israeli-Turkish pipeline project has been envisaged which would link Ceyhan to the Israeli port of Ashkelon and from there through Israel's main pipeline system, to the Red Sea an underwater Israeli-Turkish pipeline project has been envisaged which would link Ceyhan to the Israeli port of Ashkelon and from there through Israel's main pipeline system, to the Red Sea The objective of Israel is not only to acquire Caspian sea oil for its own consumption needs but also to play a key role in re-exporting Caspian sea oil back to the Asian markets through the Red Sea port of Eilat. The strategic implications of this re- routing of Caspian sea oil are far reaching The objective of Israel is not only to acquire Caspian sea oil for its own consumption needs but also to play a key role in re-exporting Caspian sea oil back to the Asian markets through the Red Sea port of Eilat. The strategic implications of this re- routing of Caspian sea oil are far reaching

44 Kazakhstan-Chine Pipeline (KCP)

45 LNG (Liquefied Natural Gas) - Russia’s New Energy Blackmail Tool, a Russia’s New Energy Weapon Putin was the architect of Russia’s use of energy as a foreign policy tool. He is now threatening to use Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) as Russia’s new energy weapon. In essence, this will be utilized as a means of coercing the EU in order to achieve de facto recognition of a Russian “sphere of influence” within the former Soviet Union. Putin was the architect of Russia’s use of energy as a foreign policy tool. He is now threatening to use Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) as Russia’s new energy weapon. In essence, this will be utilized as a means of coercing the EU in order to achieve de facto recognition of a Russian “sphere of influence” within the former Soviet Union.

46 Part 3: Russia-Ukraine, The Pipeline War Case Study One of the most important problems of the Russian distribution gas network is the original, centralized structure, following the Soviet Union philosophy. Instead, 90% of the Russian gas flow (Western Europe direction) goes trough Ukraine One of the most important problems of the Russian distribution gas network is the original, centralized structure, following the Soviet Union philosophy. Instead, 90% of the Russian gas flow (Western Europe direction) goes trough Ukraine December 2005, The disputes came to a head for the first time in 2005, when the Russian government-controlled gas supplier Gazprom and Ukrainian national gas company Naftohaz Ukrainy failed to reach an agreement on gas prices (Political Price for Ex Sovietic Republic 50 $ cubic metre; Market Price 240$) December 2005, The disputes came to a head for the first time in 2005, when the Russian government-controlled gas supplier Gazprom and Ukrainian national gas company Naftohaz Ukrainy failed to reach an agreement on gas prices (Political Price for Ex Sovietic Republic 50 $ cubic metre; Market Price 240$) On January 1, 2006, Russia cut off its gas supply to Ukraine. The flow was restored just three days later when an agreement was reached (95 $ for 1000 cubic metre, but the relationship between the two countries remained tense about Krimea (Russian Navy) and during the Georgia’s War On January 1, 2006, Russia cut off its gas supply to Ukraine. The flow was restored just three days later when an agreement was reached (95 $ for 1000 cubic metre, but the relationship between the two countries remained tense about Krimea (Russian Navy) and during the Georgia’s War The latest dispute began when Gazprom officials made statements on Russian television saying Ukraine had neither paid its gas debt owed to Russia, nor signed a gas supply contract for During December 2008 Ukrainian President Victor Yushchenko and Russian President Dmitry Medvedev traded barbs over the claims. Yushchenko denied reports Ukraine was in debt of close to $1.6 billion, indicating that the figure was much less, while President Medvedev warned that Russia would use its "entire arsenal of possibilities" if Ukraine did not pay its full debt The latest dispute began when Gazprom officials made statements on Russian television saying Ukraine had neither paid its gas debt owed to Russia, nor signed a gas supply contract for During December 2008 Ukrainian President Victor Yushchenko and Russian President Dmitry Medvedev traded barbs over the claims. Yushchenko denied reports Ukraine was in debt of close to $1.6 billion, indicating that the figure was much less, while President Medvedev warned that Russia would use its "entire arsenal of possibilities" if Ukraine did not pay its full debt Unable to resolve the dispute, Russia cut off its gas supply to Ukraine on New Year's Day 2009 Unable to resolve the dispute, Russia cut off its gas supply to Ukraine on New Year's Day 2009 On Jan. 7, one week after the initial cut-off, the pipelines to Europe stopped flowing On Jan. 7, one week after the initial cut-off, the pipelines to Europe stopped flowing Finally, on Jan. 20, Russia's gas supply to Europe was restored after an agreement was reached by Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin and Ukranian Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko. The new agreement stated that Ukraine would not raise the fee for Russian gas transit, and Ukraine would receive a 20 percent discount on the basic price for gas Finally, on Jan. 20, Russia's gas supply to Europe was restored after an agreement was reached by Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin and Ukranian Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko. The new agreement stated that Ukraine would not raise the fee for Russian gas transit, and Ukraine would receive a 20 percent discount on the basic price for gas Russia is currently experiencing a recession in most sectors of the economy, and Ukraine, which has fewer natural resources, had a 20 percent decline in national production in late The damages incurred on each side during the latest gas dispute are undoubtedly major blows to both wounded economies Russia is currently experiencing a recession in most sectors of the economy, and Ukraine, which has fewer natural resources, had a 20 percent decline in national production in late The damages incurred on each side during the latest gas dispute are undoubtedly major blows to both wounded economies The European Commission and Ukraine (March, 2009) signed a joint declaration on the modernization of Ukraine's gas pipeline network. The Commission estimated the cost of the necessary improvements at 2.5 billion euros ($3.4 billion), Russia is ready to participate in and partially finance the modernization of Ukraine's natural gas pipeline system but underiline that The modernization of Ukraine's gas transportation system could cost $16 billion, not the some $3 billion suggested by European Commission experts The European Commission and Ukraine (March, 2009) signed a joint declaration on the modernization of Ukraine's gas pipeline network. The Commission estimated the cost of the necessary improvements at 2.5 billion euros ($3.4 billion), Russia is ready to participate in and partially finance the modernization of Ukraine's natural gas pipeline system but underiline that The modernization of Ukraine's gas transportation system could cost $16 billion, not the some $3 billion suggested by European Commission experts

47 Ukraine Ukraine is bordered by Russia to the east; Belarus to the north; Poland, Slovakia, and Hungary to the west; Romania and Moldova to the southwest; and the Black Sea and Sea Azov to the south. The city of Kiev (Kyiv) is both the capital and the largest city of Ukraine Ukraine is bordered by Russia to the east; Belarus to the north; Poland, Slovakia, and Hungary to the west; Romania and Moldova to the southwest; and the Black Sea and Sea Azov to the south. The city of Kiev (Kyiv) is both the capital and the largest city of UkraineRussiaBelarusPolandSlovakiaHungaryRomaniaMoldovaBlack Sea AzovKievRussiaBelarusPolandSlovakiaHungaryRomaniaMoldovaBlack Sea AzovKiev Ukraine is subdivided into twenty-four oblasts (provinces) and one autonomous republic, Crimea. Additionally, the cities of Kiev, the capital, and Sevastopol, both have a special legal status. The 24 oblasts and Crimea are subdivided into 490 raions (districts), or second-level administrative units. The average area of a Ukrainian raion is 1,200 square kilometres (460 sq mi); the average population of a raion is 52,000 people. Ukraine is subdivided into twenty-four oblasts (provinces) and one autonomous republic, Crimea. Additionally, the cities of Kiev, the capital, and Sevastopol, both have a special legal status. The 24 oblasts and Crimea are subdivided into 490 raions (districts), or second-level administrative units. The average area of a Ukrainian raion is 1,200 square kilometres (460 sq mi); the average population of a raion is 52,000 people.oblastsprovincesKievSevastopolCrimea raionsdistrictsoblastsprovincesKievSevastopolCrimea raionsdistricts

48 Major Ukrainian Parties and Blocs The Party of Regions was created in March The party ideologically defends and upholds the rights of ethnic Russians and speakers of the Russian language in Ukraine. It originally supported president Leonid Kuchma and joined the pro-government United Ukraine alliance during the parliamentary elections on 30 March The party's leader is former Ukrainian Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych. The areas the Party of Regions does well in are mostly parts of historic Novorossiya. Its electoral and financial base is located primarily in the east and south-east of Ukraine, where it enjoys wide popular support. In the Eastern Ukrainian Donetsk Oblast the party claims to have over 700,000 members. The Party of Regions was created in March The party ideologically defends and upholds the rights of ethnic Russians and speakers of the Russian language in Ukraine. It originally supported president Leonid Kuchma and joined the pro-government United Ukraine alliance during the parliamentary elections on 30 March The party's leader is former Ukrainian Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych. The areas the Party of Regions does well in are mostly parts of historic Novorossiya. Its electoral and financial base is located primarily in the east and south-east of Ukraine, where it enjoys wide popular support. In the Eastern Ukrainian Donetsk Oblast the party claims to have over 700,000 members. Bloc Yuliya Tymoshenko is the name of the bloc of political parties in Ukraine led by Yulia Tymoshenko Although the party attracts most of its voters from Western Ukrainian, Ukrainian speaking provinces (Oblasts) it has in recent years recruited several politicians from Russian speaking provinces like Crimea (Lyudmyla Denisova) and Luhansk Oblast (Natalia Korolevska) Bloc Yuliya Tymoshenko is the name of the bloc of political parties in Ukraine led by Yulia Tymoshenko Although the party attracts most of its voters from Western Ukrainian, Ukrainian speaking provinces (Oblasts) it has in recent years recruited several politicians from Russian speaking provinces like Crimea (Lyudmyla Denisova) and Luhansk Oblast (Natalia Korolevska) Our Ukraine–People's Self-Defense Bloc is an electoral alliance active in Ukraine, associated with President Viktor Yushchenko. Since 2005, the bloc has been dominated by a core consisting of the People's Union "OurUkraine" party and five smaller partner parties. The Our Ukraine Bloc is most closely associated with the Orange Revolution and continues to use orange as its political colour. In July 2007, the old Our Ukraine bloc had been reorganized into the Our Ukraine–People's Self-Defense Bloc for the 2007 parliamentary election in September The member parties had planned to merge into a single party in December 2007 but on November 16, 2007 People’s Self-Defense decided to end its participation in the process of forming a united party since then that process is unclear. The alliance currently holds 72 out of 450 parliamentary seats. Our Ukraine–People's Self-Defense Bloc is an electoral alliance active in Ukraine, associated with President Viktor Yushchenko. Since 2005, the bloc has been dominated by a core consisting of the People's Union "OurUkraine" party and five smaller partner parties. The Our Ukraine Bloc is most closely associated with the Orange Revolution and continues to use orange as its political colour. In July 2007, the old Our Ukraine bloc had been reorganized into the Our Ukraine–People's Self-Defense Bloc for the 2007 parliamentary election in September The member parties had planned to merge into a single party in December 2007 but on November 16, 2007 People’s Self-Defense decided to end its participation in the process of forming a united party since then that process is unclear. The alliance currently holds 72 out of 450 parliamentary seats.

49 Oil and gas companies of Ukraine Naftohaz Ukrainy is the state company of Ukraine concerned with extraction, transportation, and refinement of natural gas and crude oil. The company is also active in Egypt and in the United Arab Emirates JSC Nadra Group, specialising in oil and gas exploration and production, and water purification equipment  JSC Nikopol Pipeline Fitting Plant, manufacturer of pressure gates and check valves for petrochemical and water/steam applications, located in the Dnipopetrovsk region JSC Sumy Frunze NPO, Manufacturer of Equipment for the Oil, Gas, and Chemical Industries, located in Sumy, Ukraine The Deane Group, provides consultancy and business services to companies operating within the oil and gas industry in Ukraine and to foreign or Ukrainian companies wishing to establish new oil/gas-related businesses in Ukraine. The Company has particular expertise and experience in Ukraine's oil and gas sector and offers advice and services in areas such as oil/gas business strategy development, investment project development, business and political analysis, government and external relations, and corporate representation. Through its network of Associates, the Company can provide expert and informed comment and advice on all areas of Ukraine's fuel and energy complex  Ukrainian Petroleum and Energy Consultants, leading information resource in the oil and gas sector of Ukraine

50 Russia Russia is a semi-presidential republic comprising 83 federal subjects. Russia shares land borders with the following countries: Norway, Finland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania (via Kaliningrad Oblast), Poland (via Kaliningrad Oblast), Belarus, Ukraine, Georgia, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, China, Mongolia and the Democratic People's Republic of Korea. At 17,075,400 square kilometres (6,592,800 sq mi), Russia is by far the largest country in the world, covering more than an eighth of the Earth’s land area; with 142 million people, it is the ninth largest by population Russia is a semi-presidential republic comprising 83 federal subjects. Russia shares land borders with the following countries: Norway, Finland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania (via Kaliningrad Oblast), Poland (via Kaliningrad Oblast), Belarus, Ukraine, Georgia, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, China, Mongolia and the Democratic People's Republic of Korea. At 17,075,400 square kilometres (6,592,800 sq mi), Russia is by far the largest country in the world, covering more than an eighth of the Earth’s land area; with 142 million people, it is the ninth largest by populationsemi-presidentialrepublicfederal subjects NorwayFinlandLatviaLithuaniaKaliningrad OblastPolandKaliningrad OblastBelarusUkraineAzerbaijanKazakhstansemi-presidentialrepublicfederal subjects NorwayFinlandLatviaLithuaniaKaliningrad OblastPolandKaliningrad OblastBelarusUkraineAzerbaijanKazakhstan Russia is a federation and formally a semi-presidential republic, where in the President is the head of state and the Prime Minister is the head of government. The Russian Federation is fundamentally structured as a representative democracy. Executive power is exercised by the government.[90] Legislative power is vested in the two chambers of the Federal Assembly. The government is regulated by a system of checks and balances defined by the Constitution of the Russian Federation, which serves as the country's supreme legal document and as a social contract for the people of the Russian Federation Russia is a federation and formally a semi-presidential republic, where in the President is the head of state and the Prime Minister is the head of government. The Russian Federation is fundamentally structured as a representative democracy. Executive power is exercised by the government.[90] Legislative power is vested in the two chambers of the Federal Assembly. The government is regulated by a system of checks and balances defined by the Constitution of the Russian Federation, which serves as the country's supreme legal document and as a social contract for the people of the Russian Federationfederationsemi-presidentialrepublicPresidentrepresentative democracy[90]checks and balancesfederationsemi-presidentialrepublicPresidentrepresentative democracy[90]checks and balances

51 Major Russian Parties United Russia the major political party in the Russian Federation. United Russia supports President Dmitry Medvedev, and is currently the largest political party in the Russian Federation. On April 15, 2008, Vladimir Putin (Prime Minister) accepted the nomination to become chairman of the party United Russia the major political party in the Russian Federation. United Russia supports President Dmitry Medvedev, and is currently the largest political party in the Russian Federation. On April 15, 2008, Vladimir Putin (Prime Minister) accepted the nomination to become chairman of the party Communist Party of the Russian Federation is a Russian political party under the leadership of Gennady Zyuganov. It is sometimes seen as a successor to the Communist Party of the Soviet Union (CPSU) and the Bolshevik Party Communist Party of the Russian Federation is a Russian political party under the leadership of Gennady Zyuganov. It is sometimes seen as a successor to the Communist Party of the Soviet Union (CPSU) and the Bolshevik Party Liberal Democratic Party of Russia has been led by Vladimir Zhirinovsky almost since its founding, in 1989, as the Liberal Democratic Party of the Soviet Union. The LDPR describes itself as a centrist, pro-reform democratic party. The programme of the party calls for democracy and social liberalism. Despite the name, a widespread opinion in the West is that the party's ideology is not liberal and it is often regarded, especially in external media, as an ultranationalist party. The LDPR states that its main political opponents are Yabloko and the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (CPRF). It describes itself as an opposition party however its deputies hardly ever voted against the Putin government Liberal Democratic Party of Russia has been led by Vladimir Zhirinovsky almost since its founding, in 1989, as the Liberal Democratic Party of the Soviet Union. The LDPR describes itself as a centrist, pro-reform democratic party. The programme of the party calls for democracy and social liberalism. Despite the name, a widespread opinion in the West is that the party's ideology is not liberal and it is often regarded, especially in external media, as an ultranationalist party. The LDPR states that its main political opponents are Yabloko and the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (CPRF). It describes itself as an opposition party however its deputies hardly ever voted against the Putin government Fair Russia formed on 28 October 2006 as a merger of Rodina, the Russian Party of Life and the Russian Pensioners' Party. First party chairman Sergey Mironov, the chairman of the Federation Fair Russia formed on 28 October 2006 as a merger of Rodina, the Russian Party of Life and the Russian Pensioners' Party. First party chairman Sergey Mironov, the chairman of the Federation

52 Oil and gas companies of Russia Gazprom, is the world's biggest gas exploration and production company Gazprom, is the world's biggest gas exploration and production company Gazflot, russian exploration and ship owning company Gazflot, russian exploration and ship owning company JSC Gazprom Neft, is one of the largest oil and gas producing companies in Russia JSC Gazprom Neft, is one of the largest oil and gas producing companies in Russia Lukoil, is Russia's leading oil company Lukoil, is Russia's leading oil company Rosneft, russian oil and gas exploration company (bought Yukos) Rosneft, russian oil and gas exploration company (bought Yukos) Sevmorneftegaz, CJSC, Development of oil and gas fields on Russia’s Arctic continental shelf Sevmorneftegaz, CJSC, Development of oil and gas fields on Russia’s Arctic continental shelf Sibneft, petroleum exploration, production, refining, and marketing Sibneft, petroleum exploration, production, refining, and marketing

53 Russia–Ukraine recent relations Ukraine's recent attempts to joint the EU and NATO was seen as change of course to only a pro-Western, anti-Russian orientiation of Ukraine and thus a sign of hostility and this resulted in a drop of Ukraine's perception in Russia Ukraine's recent attempts to joint the EU and NATO was seen as change of course to only a pro-Western, anti-Russian orientiation of Ukraine and thus a sign of hostility and this resulted in a drop of Ukraine's perception in Russia The status of the Russian Black Sea Fleet in Sevastopol remains a matter of disagreement and tensions. During the 2008 South Ossetia war relations with Russia also deteriorated over the new rules for the Russian Black Sea Fleet to obtain permission when crossing the Ukrainian border, which Russia refused to comply with. The status of the Russian Black Sea Fleet in Sevastopol remains a matter of disagreement and tensions. During the 2008 South Ossetia war relations with Russia also deteriorated over the new rules for the Russian Black Sea Fleet to obtain permission when crossing the Ukrainian border, which Russia refused to comply with. In February 2008 Russia unilaterally withdrew from the Ukrainian-Russian intergovernmental agreement on SPRN signed in The SRPN-2 Prognoz programme, commonly known as just Prognoz, is a Russian, previously Soviet, missile defence early warning programme In February 2008 Russia unilaterally withdrew from the Ukrainian-Russian intergovernmental agreement on SPRN signed in The SRPN-2 Prognoz programme, commonly known as just Prognoz, is a Russian, previously Soviet, missile defence early warning programmeRussianSovietRussianSoviet During the 2008 South Ossetia war, relations between Ukraine and Russia deteriored, due to Ukraine's support of Georgia's territorial integrity and selling of arms to Georgia. Further disagreements over position on Georgia and relations with Russia were among the issues (Domestic Crises) that brought down the Our Ukraine-Peoples Self Defence + Bloc Yulia Tymoshenko coalition in the Ukrainian parliament during September 2008 (on December 16, 2008 the coalition did remerge with a new coalition partner, the Lytvyn Bloc During the 2008 South Ossetia war, relations between Ukraine and Russia deteriored, due to Ukraine's support of Georgia's territorial integrity and selling of arms to Georgia. Further disagreements over position on Georgia and relations with Russia were among the issues (Domestic Crises) that brought down the Our Ukraine-Peoples Self Defence + Bloc Yulia Tymoshenko coalition in the Ukrainian parliament during September 2008 (on December 16, 2008 the coalition did remerge with a new coalition partner, the Lytvyn Bloc Russia is heavily opposed to Ukraine and Georgia becoming members of NATO. NATO Summit (April, 2008) denied the Membership to Ukraine and Georgia. Russia, naturally, approved this decision Russia is heavily opposed to Ukraine and Georgia becoming members of NATO. NATO Summit (April, 2008) denied the Membership to Ukraine and Georgia. Russia, naturally, approved this decision January 2009, dispute about natural gas prices. The war of pipelines. Relations further deteriorated January 2009, dispute about natural gas prices. The war of pipelines. Relations further deteriorated

54 EURASIA GAS AND OIL PIPELINES ACTORS ABLE TO INFLUENCE THE REGION Domestic and Foreign Actors: United States; Western Europe Bloc; Central Europe Bloc; Baltic; Eastern Europe Bloc; Caucasus Countries; Middle East Countries (Israel); North of Africa; Nigeria and Central Africa Oil and Gas Producers; Central Asia Countries; India; China. Domestic and Foreign Actors: United States; Western Europe Bloc; Central Europe Bloc; Baltic; Eastern Europe Bloc; Caucasus Countries; Middle East Countries (Israel); North of Africa; Nigeria and Central Africa Oil and Gas Producers; Central Asia Countries; India; China. International Organizations: European Union; NATO; GUAM (Organization for Democracy and Economic Development); GECF (Gas Exporting Countries Forum); SCO (Shanghai Cooperation Organization); CSTO (Collective Security Treaty Organization); Eurasian Economic Community (EurAsEC); ASEAN; ASEAN DIALOGUE PARTNERS; OPEC International Organizations: European Union; NATO; GUAM (Organization for Democracy and Economic Development); GECF (Gas Exporting Countries Forum); SCO (Shanghai Cooperation Organization); CSTO (Collective Security Treaty Organization); Eurasian Economic Community (EurAsEC); ASEAN; ASEAN DIALOGUE PARTNERS; OPEC National Actors (Crises Russia-Ukraine, Major Political Parties): United Russia (Vladimir Putin, Dimitry Medvedev); Communist Party of the Russian Federation (Gennady Zyuganov); Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (Vladimir Zhirinovsky); Fair Russia (Sergey Mironov); The Party of Regions (Viktor Yanukovych); The Yulia Tymoshenko Bloc (Yulia Tymoshenko); The Our Ukraine–People's Self- Defense Bloc (Viktor Yushchenko) National Actors (Crises Russia-Ukraine, Major Political Parties): United Russia (Vladimir Putin, Dimitry Medvedev); Communist Party of the Russian Federation (Gennady Zyuganov); Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (Vladimir Zhirinovsky); Fair Russia (Sergey Mironov); The Party of Regions (Viktor Yanukovych); The Yulia Tymoshenko Bloc (Yulia Tymoshenko); The Our Ukraine–People's Self- Defense Bloc (Viktor Yushchenko) Gas Economic Actors: Gazprom (Russia); Rosneft (Russia); Naftohaz Ukrainy; Beltransgaz (Belarus); Exxon Mobil (United States); British Petroleum (Great Britain); Total Fina Elf (France); Royal Dutch Petroleum (Nederlands); ChevronTexaco (United States); Eni (Italy); Shell Transport and Trading (Great Britain); Basf (Germany); Wintershall (Germany); QatarGas (Qatar Petroleum); National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC); Gassco (Norway); StatoilHydro (Norway); DONG Energy (Denmark); China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) Gas Economic Actors: Gazprom (Russia); Rosneft (Russia); Naftohaz Ukrainy; Beltransgaz (Belarus); Exxon Mobil (United States); British Petroleum (Great Britain); Total Fina Elf (France); Royal Dutch Petroleum (Nederlands); ChevronTexaco (United States); Eni (Italy); Shell Transport and Trading (Great Britain); Basf (Germany); Wintershall (Germany); QatarGas (Qatar Petroleum); National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC); Gassco (Norway); StatoilHydro (Norway); DONG Energy (Denmark); China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC)Gazprom


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