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GSAL Special edition 2011 for City University of HK 1 Container Market outlook 26 February 2011 Abridged version Alfred Cheung.

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Presentation on theme: "GSAL Special edition 2011 for City University of HK 1 Container Market outlook 26 February 2011 Abridged version Alfred Cheung."— Presentation transcript:

1 GSAL Special edition 2011 for City University of HK 1 Container Market outlook 26 February 2011 Abridged version Alfred Cheung

2 GSAL Special edition 2011 for City University of HK 2 Global container handling volume Unit in Mteu Capacity deployment focused onto FE-EUR 26% and FE-NAMR 18% * Market –Likely to be > 600Mteu –in near future Traceability –Movement –Inventory –Availability Saving –5 to 10% saving –Handling / shifting –Planning & marshalling Networking –User accessibility –Global coverage –Security & safety Source: Alphaliner 2010 & in-house data

3 GSAL Special edition 2011 for City University of HK 3 Source: Alphaliner + In-house data (Demand > supply by 2% in 2010 and continues to be strong in 2h 2010) Estimation of Global Container fleet in 2010 Global fleet M TEU 93% dry boxes 7% reefer boxes Global terminal handling volume 545 M TEU 11.6% growth rate projection in 2010 Average handling ratio / TEU = 20 Market potential Reefer boxes of 1.7 M TEU Average TAT 6 Total market potential > 10 M TEU

4 GSAL Special edition 2011 for City University of HK 4 Lifting estimated by Clarkson to be 565M TEU in 2010 Container shipping demand –Outpaces supply by 2% in 2010 –Continues to be strong in 2H 2010 –Asia – Europe trade with strongest growth to reach 17.2 M TEU, or 13.1% increase –Transatlantic traffic expects to grow by 12% to 5.6 M TEU –Transpacific trade with steady growth of 10.3% to 20.3 M TEU –North – South trade projects to rise 9.2% to 20.6 M TEU –Other trades including intra-regional & other routes forecasting to grow by 11.4% to 56.5 M TEU Source: Clarkson + in-house data

5 GSAL Special edition 2011 for City University of HK 5 Average 5 year rental per diem rate of reefer new build in US$ Stable per diem rates as from 2007 Source : in-house data

6 GSAL Special edition 2011 for City University of HK 6 Active container ship capacity evolution : Jan 2010 to Jan 2011 Utilization levels fall as active capacity grew by 21% over past 12 months. Increased from Mteu in Jan 2010 to Mteu in Jan A combined effect of 1.39 Mteu new ships delivered in 2010 and activation of 1.18 Mteu of idle capacity. Total idled fleet has decreased from 1.51 Mteu in Jan 2010 to 326,000 teu. Scrapping and deletions has dropped from 381,000 teu in 2009 to 184,000 teu in 2010.

7 GSAL Special edition 2011 for City University of HK 7 Transparency & Convenience Quality & Compliance Safety & Security Reefer Logistics Information Chain Minimize costs Eliminate waste Reduce processing time E friendly & Energy saving Forwarder Shipper Consignee Bank / Trader TML / Depot Log Provider QRT / Customs End user RTLS & RFID Applications Source: in-house model

8 GSAL Special edition 2011 for City University of HK 8 Top 10 GDP countries expressed in trillion $ with forecast up to 2050 Source : Goldman Sachs

9 GSAL Special edition 2011 for City University of HK 9 Disclaimer This presentation contains theories and forward looking statements which reflect writer’s current forecast and estimates. The forward looking statements involve risks and uncertainties that could cause actual result to be different from those described in the forward statements. Potential risks and uncertainties include change of economic conditions, fluctuation in foreign exchange, new technology applications, market competition and regulatory developments. The writer assumes no responsibility for errors, omissions, or damages caused by or from the use of the information herein. Thank you for listening! Alfred Cheung Office : Personal : Mobile: Japan Mobile: Hong Kong Skype ID: alfredcheungshuwing


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