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Heather Rowe, Research Associate Insight & Analysis from Global Light Vehicle Production Outlook.

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Presentation on theme: "Heather Rowe, Research Associate Insight & Analysis from Global Light Vehicle Production Outlook."— Presentation transcript:

1 Heather Rowe, Research Associate Insight & Analysis from Global Light Vehicle Production Outlook

2 Heather Rowe, Research Associate Insight & Analysis from Quick Take: Global Light Vehicle Outlook – Forecast 2014 vs Sales expected to finish at 86 million in 2014 (vs million in 2013) China the biggest sales gainer compared even to entire global regions Declines in Australia, India, and especially Thailand, flattening sales results in rest of Asia-Pacific Europe rebounding – despite Russia/Ukraine problem North America still solid Weakness in Argentina, Brazil and Chile cutting demand in South America Global Sales Outlook (in millions)

3 Heather Rowe, Research Associate Insight & Analysis from Global Light Vehicle Production Forecast Annual production tops 100 million units in 2018 By 2021, global manufacturers producing nearly 20 million additional vehicles per year from 2014 Volume in millions

4 Heather Rowe, Research Associate Insight & Analysis from Regional Outlook: China  No stopping production juggernaut  China continues to be the driving force behind global production Compound Annual Growth Rate ( ) of 4.1%

5 Heather Rowe, Research Associate Insight & Analysis from Regional Outlook: China Mfr.2014Mfr Volkswagen3.57Volkswagen4.58 2General Motors1.87General Motors2.20 3SAIC-GM-Wuling1.76SAIC-GM-Wuling1.97 4Hyundai Motor1.67Hyundai Motor1.85 5Changan Auto1.31Changan Auto1.66 6Beijing Auto0.99Honda Motor1.41 7Toyota Motor0.92Renault/Nissan1.38 8Ford Motor0.86Beijing Auto1.27 9Honda Motor0.82Ford Motor Renault/Nissan0.82Toyota Motor Dongfeng Motors0.82Dongfeng Motors Great Wall Auto0.77Great Wall Auto PSA/Peug.-Cit.0.73PSA/Peug.-Cit Brilliance China0.55Geely Group Chery0.49Chery0.74 Top 15 OEMs – 2021 vs (millions) Volkswagen’s annual volume increases by one 1 million units by 2021 Honda, Renault/Nissan and Geely move up in rank Though not in the Top 15, several China-based manufacturers will experience strong growth rates between 2014 and 2021

6 Heather Rowe, Research Associate Insight & Analysis from Regional Outlook: Asia-Pacific(less China)  Overall solid growth but mixed bag by country

7 Heather Rowe, Research Associate Insight & Analysis from Regional Outlook: Asia-Pacific(less China) 2013 (Actual) CAGR ( ) Japan % India % South Korea % Thailand % Indonesia % Malaysia % Taiwan % Australia Other % CAGR: Compound annual growth rate Forecast Production by Country (millions) Japan remains a major production hub in Asia despite expanded global sourcing by home-grown manufacturers India gets the majority of volume gains Labor issues, strong won dampening South Korea outlook Production projected to end in Australia by 2018

8 Heather Rowe, Research Associate Insight & Analysis from Regional Outlook: Europe  Volume rebounding as long as Eurozone continues economic growth and Russia doesn’t drag down the East

9 Heather Rowe, Research Associate Insight & Analysis from Regional Outlook: Europe 2013 (Actual) CAGR ( ) EASTERN EUROPE % Russia % Czech Republic % Turkey % Slovakia % Poland % Other % WESTERN EUROPE % Germany % Spain % France % United Kingdom % Italy % Other % Forecast Production by Country (millions) CAGR: Compound annual growth rate West Europe stops bleeding capacity to the east Russia big concern – downgrade outlook if economy fails to show signs of upturn UK bouncing back as one of lower cost countries to manufacture goods

10 Heather Rowe, Research Associate Insight & Analysis from Regional Outlook: North America  Exports more significant but U.S. market still main driver of production volume

11 Heather Rowe, Research Associate Insight & Analysis from Regional Outlook: North America 2013 (Actual) CAGR ( ) NORTH AMERICA % Canada % Mexico % United States % 2013 (Actual) CAGR ( ) General Motors % Ford Motor % Fiat-Chrysler % Honda Motor % Toyota Motor % Renault/Nissan % Hyundai/Kia % Volkswagen/Audi % BMW % Daimler % Subaru % Other % CAGR: Compound annual growth rate Forecast Production by Country, OEM (millions) Mexico assembling over 1 million additional vehicles in 2021 from 2014 – capacity to build over 5 million Biggest growth rates among smallest manufacturers

12 Heather Rowe, Research Associate Insight & Analysis from Regional Outlook: South America  Global penetration surges in seven years

13 Heather Rowe, Research Associate Insight & Analysis from Regional Outlook: South America Forecast Production by Country, OEM (millions) 2013 (Actual) CAGR ( ) SOUTH AMERICA % Brazil % Argentina % Other % CAGR: Compound annual growth rate 2013 (Actual) CAGR ( ) Renault/Nissan % Volkswagen % Fiat-Chrysler % General Motors % Ford Motor % Honda Motor % PSA/Peugeot-Citroen % Toyota Motor % Other % Overall volume and growth mostly dependent on Brazil Renault/Nissan, Volkswagen forecast for huge volume increases Smaller manufacturers, spurred by China-based OEMs, will make a bigger dent

14 Heather Rowe, Research Associate Insight & Analysis from CONTACT US TODAY: LISA WILLIAMSON AMBER MCLINCHA


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