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Inventing The Future: Your Company, Your Customers and Your Partners Jack P. Garrett Garrett Business Technology, LLC 04 Nov 2003
4 Nov 2003Garrett Business Technology © 20032 The Plan … Look at how and by whom the future is invented Consider what clues are around us that may foreshadow our possible future – and what we and our partners want to do to shape that future for our customers The Journaling exercise: The relationship I want to have with my customers and partners in the future
4 Nov 2003Garrett Business Technology © 20033 The Future, Your Company, Your Customers and Your Partners The future rarely arrives unannounced You, your company, your customers and your partners will both invent the future and be subject to it We don’t lack input, we lack effective filters and analysis “Most of us have built up a set of filters to keep us from drowning. We pay attention only to what we think we need to know.” – Peter Schwartz, The Art of the Long View
4 Nov 2003Garrett Business Technology © 20034 Not “Where Is It Going”, But “Where Do We Want It To Go?”
4 Nov 2003Garrett Business Technology © 20035 Living with the Future or Inventing It “…Whether 'tis nobler in the mind to suffer The slings and arrows of outrageous fortune, Or to take arms against a sea of troubles.” Hamlet, William Shakespeare “Lead, follow, or get out of the way.” Lee Iacocca, Chrysler
4 Nov 2003Garrett Business Technology © 20036 Who Invents the Future? What drives them? What are they like? How do they invent the future? What can we learn from them – so we can, too?
4 Nov 2003Garrett Business Technology © 20037 Inventors of the Future – the Gold Standard Pyramid of Khufu 482 feet high, 754 feet at base 2,300,000 limestone blocks 2 ½ tons average, some over 9 tons 20 years to complete One stone in place, every 4 1/2 minutes, on average, day and night
4 Nov 2003Garrett Business Technology © 20038 Leonardo da Vinci – Nobody Did It Better Musical instruments, painting, sketching, bridges, fortifications entertainment, sculpture, anatomy, weaponry, mathematics, architecture, hydraulics Customers: Lorenzo de Medici Ludovico Sforza Cesare Borgia King Francis I of France
4 Nov 2003Garrett Business Technology © 20039 Leonardo da Vinci “Every day he made models and designs for the removal of mountains with ease and to pierce them to pass from one place to another, and by means of levers, capstans, and screws to raise and draw heavy weights; he devised methods for cleansing ports and to raise water from great depths, schemes which his brain never ceased to evolve. Of such ideas and efforts many designs are scattered about, and I have seen many of them.” - Lives of Painters, Giorgio Vasari, ca. 1550
4 Nov 2003Garrett Business Technology © 200310 The Future Isn’t What It Used To Be (http://desip.igc.org/populationmaps.html) Thomas Malthus 1766-1834 Essay on the Principles of Population
4 Nov 2003Garrett Business Technology © 200311 Not Everyone Succeeds … Superior Technology Access to substantial personnel and financial resources Graduate of a prestigious institution of higher learning Promoted repeatedly for exceptional performance Experienced, innovative, adaptable Competitive Advantages
4 Nov 2003Garrett Business Technology © 200312 Not Everyone Succeeds … Popular, dashing and successful Offered speaking contract second only to Mark Twain Ongoing correspondent with Galaxy Magazine Brought along Mark Kellogg of the New York Herald – against orders Upcoming Democratic convention in St. Louis 1876 Democratic candidate: Samuel J. Tilden (who?) Why Include Custer?
4 Nov 2003Garrett Business Technology © 200313 Not Everyone Succeeds … Personal goals obscured larger objective Lost technological competitive advantage Poor use of available resources Underestimated resources available to competition Competition was also experienced, innovative, adaptable What Went Wrong (For Him)?
4 Nov 2003Garrett Business Technology © 200314 The Focused Inventor Phonograph Reliable Incandescent Light bulb Carbon Telephone Transmitter Motion Picture Camera … (1093 patents) http://www.invent-yes.com/Thomas_Edison.htm
4 Nov 2003Garrett Business Technology © 200315 The Focused Inventor “Hell, there are no rules here — we're trying to accomplish something.” “Genius is 1% inspiration and 99% perspiration.” http://www.invent-yes.com/Thomas_Edison.htm
4 Nov 2003Garrett Business Technology © 200316 The Focused Inventor “In 1868 Edison made his first patented invention, the Electrical Vote Recorder. Congress was apparently not interested in purchasing this as it counted votes too quickly. Edison vowed he would never again invent anything unless there was a "commercial demand" for it.” “At age 23 Edison made his first sale of an invention, a Universal Stock Ticker, to General Lefferts, the head of the Gold and Stock Telegraph Co. Edison had decided that the invention was worth $5000 but was ready to accept $3000 when Lefferts said, "How would $40,000 strike you?" In later years Edison reported that he had almost fainted, but managed to stammer that the offer seemed fair enough. That money was used to set up Edison's first business.” http://www.invent-yes.com/Thomas_Edison.htm
4 Nov 2003Garrett Business Technology © 200317 The Best Things May Come in Very Small Packages One an ex-physicist and the other a former ornithology student Competition with Linus Pauling – and others Crucial Rosalind Franklin X-Ray diffraction photograph shown to them by Maurice Wilkins 3-D Molecular models help visualize the structure “The Double Helix: … a tale of boundless ambition, impatience with authority and disdain, if not contempt, for received opinion”- Robert Wright http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/aso/tryit/dna/ James Watson and Francis Crick – The DNA Double Helix
4 Nov 2003Garrett Business Technology © 200318 Others Who Invented Our Future Whoever first controlled fire The Sources and Founders of Religions The inventor of Arabic Numerals Christopher Columbus – “Discovery” of the New World Sir Isaac Newton – Laws of Planetary Motion Albert Einstein – Special Theory of Relativity The Manhattan Project – Nuclear Weapons Arthur C. Clarke – Geosychronous communications satellites Tim Berners-Lee, Robert Cailliau, et. al. - The Internet
4 Nov 2003Garrett Business Technology © 200319 Those Who Did Invent the Future Intensely aware of competition Funding, sponsorship and other resource issues Not afraid to work hard Built on, and improved, the work of others Had their own view of what they wanted the future to be The results weren’t always what they expected
4 Nov 2003Garrett Business Technology © 200320 The Future, Your Company, Your Customers and Your Partners Break
4 Nov 2003Garrett Business Technology © 200321 Inventing the Future – Our Turn What does our future hold and what opportunities are there for us to invent a part of it? “To create the future, a company must first be capable of imagining it.” – Gary Hamel and C. K. Prahalad, Competing for the Future “An old Arab proverb says that, ‘he who predicts the future lies even if he tells the truth’” – Peter Schwartz, The Art of the Long View
4 Nov 2003Garrett Business Technology © 200322 Creating Scenarios 1. 1. Avoid probabilities or “most likely” plots 2. 2. Do not assign probabilities to the scenarios 3. 3. Avoid slight variations on a theme 4. 4. Choose memorable names 5. 5. Make the decision makers own the scenarios 6. 6. Budget sufficient resources for communicating scenarios 7. 7. Communicate effectively and imaginatively 8. 8. Have fun Learning from the Future, Liam Fahey & Robert M. Randall, ed.
4 Nov 2003Garrett Business Technology © 200323 The Future is Where You Find It Thiotimoline is a fictitious chemical compound conceived by science fiction author Isaac Asimov and described in a spoof scientific paper entitled The Endochronic Properties of Resublimated Thiotimoline in 1948. “Because of the temporal extension of their carbon bonds, thiotimoline crystals dissolve approximately 1.12 seconds before the introduction of a solvent, usually water.” (www.stereophile.com)
4 Nov 2003Garrett Business Technology © 200324 Creating the Future - One Word at a Time Futuon Futuon : A small piece of the future existing in the present Futuons The difficulty, of course, is being able to distinguish the Futuons from everything else…
4 Nov 2003Garrett Business Technology © 200325 Separating the Wheat From the Chaff Consider the following items as possibly being significant indicators of the future Consider what could be done to invent a future with your partners that would best serve your customers Exercise: Multivote on which will be most important to your company, your customers and your partners – positively or negatively
4 Nov 2003Garrett Business Technology © 200326 Remote Medicine: Telepresence and Robotics “Telepresence techniques could allow surgeons to conduct robotic surgery from anywhere in the world offering increased accessibility to specialists. Prototypes have been tested that let the surgeons experience all the sensory feedback and motor control that would be felt in person.” Dutton, G., "Medicine Gets Closer to Virtual Reality." IEEE Software, September 1992, p.108.
4 Nov 2003Garrett Business Technology © 200327 Computing Environment Stability and Customer Satisfaction “In the final analysis the Nimda computer virus affected some 8.3 million computer networks around the world and according to analysts caused $590 million dollars in damage and clean up costs.” (www.uksecurityonline.com) “Hackers contest makes a mess of Internet Tuesday, 08 July, 2003, 08:56 Washington: A weekend hacker contest resulted in ‘the messiest day in the whole Internet history,’ disabling hundreds of websites from Brazil to the Netherlands, security experts said.” (www.sify.com)
4 Nov 2003Garrett Business Technology © 200328 BUSLINK 1GB ( 1024MB ) USB Flash Memory Pen Drive /w Secure Password Protection, Price: $369.00 Information Archival and Changes in Storage Media “It’s gonna replace CDs soon. Guess I’ll have to buy The White Album again.” - “K”, played by Tommy Lee Jones, Men in Black
4 Nov 2003Garrett Business Technology © 200329 1804: Punched card: 80 characters 1962: Audio Cassette Tape: 120 minutes 1965: 8-track tape: ~60 minutes 1971: Super 8mm Film: 20 minutes 1976: VHS: 2 hours 1981: 5 ¼” Floppy: 1.2MB 1982: CD: 700 MB 1983: 3 ½” Floppy: 1.44 MB 1994: DVD: 4.7 GB Information Archival and Changes in Storage Media
4 Nov 2003Garrett Business Technology © 200330 Voting, Voting Machines and Hanging Chad Bush: 271 Electoral votes (50,456,169 Total) Gore: 266 Electoral votes (50,996,116 Total) (www.cnn.com)
4 Nov 2003Garrett Business Technology © 200331 Revenues Generated by Electronic Games And Motion Pictures 2001: Video games: $9.3B in revenues Hollywood: $8.1B (www.internetnews.com)
4 Nov 2003Garrett Business Technology © 200332 Personal Privacy and Freedom of Speech “USA PATRIOT Act Uniting and Strengthening America by Providing Appropriate Tools Required to Intercept and Obstruct Terrorism Act (Oct. 25, 2001) AN ACT To deter and punish terrorist acts in the United States and around the world, to enhance law enforcement investigatory tools, and for other purposes. …” (HR 3162)
4 Nov 2003Garrett Business Technology © 200333 GPS and RFID: Satellite-Assisted Location “The ultimate goal is to put a radio tag on virtually every manufactured item …” (“Beyond the Bar Code”, Charlie Schmidt, MIT Technology Review ) “… for it is the number of a man; and his number is Six hundred threescore and six.” (Revelations 13:18 ) “As of 13 Oct 2003, there were 70,952 active (Geo)caches in 188 countries.” (www.geocaching.com)www.geocaching.com
4 Nov 2003Garrett Business Technology © 200334 Keyboards that Fold, Roll Up or Can be Integrated Into Clothing “Levi's musical jacket is made with the silk organza and is controlled with an all-fabric capacitive keyboard. This keyboard has been mass-produced using ordinary embroidery techniques and conductive thread.” (computer.howstuffworks.com)
4 Nov 2003Garrett Business Technology © 200335 Identity Theft “A survey in March and April (2003) of 4,057 randomly selected adults suggests that during that 27.3 million people were victimized during the past five years when someone made unauthorized charges on their credit cards, took money from their bank accounts, or obtained a credit card or official document in their name. Last year, based on the survey, 9.9 million Americans were victims of identity theft, costing them $5 billion and businesses and financial institutions $48 billion.” (www.smartpros.com)
4 Nov 2003Garrett Business Technology © 200336 Beyond CRT and LCD: Advances in Holographic, Retinal, 3D displays “This new stereoscopic display uses a holographic optical element (HOE) … which converges the coherent parallel rays at the center of the human eye and projects the rays directly on the retina.” (www.siggraph.com, Takahisa Anda, Sanyo)
4 Nov 2003Garrett Business Technology © 200337 Wireless Growth 12 October 2003 “The top four US carriers had a combined net gain of 2.54 million customers during the second quarter, 40 per cent more than the net gain a year ago, and the strongest quarterly gain in over a year.” (finance.news.com.au)
4 Nov 2003Garrett Business Technology © 200338 Genetically Altered Foods and the Cloning of Animals and Organisms “Surveys consistently find that 97% of European consumers want clear labeling of all genetically engineered foods and 80% do not want genetically engineered foods at all.” (www.netlink.de)
4 Nov 2003Garrett Business Technology © 200339 Intellectual Property in the Digital Age: Downloading of Music and other Forms of Information “According to the Recording Industry Association of America and the International Federation of the Phonographic Industry, music thieves pirated more than $4.2 billion last year.” (more.abcnews.go.com)
4 Nov 2003Garrett Business Technology © 200340 The Prospect of a Globe with Three Economic Powers: Asia, Europe and the US “Due to its rapid gross domestic product (GDP) growth, China contributed 15.7% of global GDP growth in 2002, just next to the U.S. We expect China will be able to maintain an annual growth rate of 7% over the long term.” (Peter Chau, www.talvest.com)
4 Nov 2003Garrett Business Technology © 200341 Nanotechnology and Smart Dust “The FY 2003 President's budget request of about $710 million … for federal investment in nanoscale science, engineering and technology, a 17% increase over FY 2002…” (www.nano.gov) “… these "motes" could eventually be the size of a grain of sand, though each would contain sensors, computing circuits, bidirectional wireless communications technology and a power supply. Motes would gather scads of data, run computations and communicate that information using two-way band radio between motes at distances approaching 1,000 feet.” (www.computerworld.com)
4 Nov 2003Garrett Business Technology © 200342 The US Prison Population “At the middle of last year, prisons and jails held 1,860,520 adults, according to a Bureau of Justice Statistics report. With an increase of 60,000 prisoners over the previous year, the United States may have matched or even surpassed Russia as the country with the highest rate of incarceration.” (David Ho, AP, abcnews.go.com)
4 Nov 2003Garrett Business Technology © 200343 Offshoring of Manufacturing and High-technology Jobs “A CIO at a famous Fortune 100 manufacturer has a recurring nightmare: As he continues to lay off American IT workers and move their jobs offshore to places such as India, never to return, American public opinion suddenly swings violently against globalization. He and his company are demonized, and Americans boycott his company's products....Indeed, by the end of 2004, research company Gartner estimates, one in 10 IT jobs at U.S. IT companies and one in 20 at non-IT companies will move offshore.” (Christopher Koch, www.cio.com)
4 Nov 2003Garrett Business Technology © 200344 Increasing Functionality of Mobile Phones “A lot of camera phones will arrive in the coming months, but the XYZ does the best job of integrating this nifty feature without losing sight of its primary phone duties. This model features a spectacular 65,000-color display and includes loads of top-tier specs such as high-speed data surfing via WXY's next-generation 1xRTT networks. The XYZ is also GPS-ready for e911 services, and it supports J2ME, so you can download cool games, applications, and ring tones.” (Modified from www.cnet.com)
4 Nov 2003Garrett Business Technology © 200345 Balkanization - the Growing Tendency Toward Smaller Nation-States “USSR: Armenia, Azerbaijan, Estonia, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Latvia, Lithuania, Moldova, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Ukraine, and Uzbekistan Bosnia: Serbians in Bosnia fought to break away from Bosnia and join Serbian dominated Yugoslavia Kashmir: Muslims in the state of Jammu and Kashmir are fighting to break away from India Nigeria: the southeastern part of Nigeria declared themselves to be the independent State of Biafara Sri Lanka: the Tamil Tigers are fighting to break away from Sri Lanka "Kurdistan": the Kurdish people of Turkey, Iraq and Iran have periodically fought to create the new State of Kurdistan Iraq: the Shiites Muslims living in the marshes of southeastern Iraq have fought to break away from the Sunni Muslim dominated government of Saddam Hussein” - (Modified from www.harpercollege.com)
4 Nov 2003Garrett Business Technology © 200346 The Possibility of Chemical, Biological or Nuclear Terrorism Across the Globe “Coalition Provisional Authority Administrator Ambassador Paul Bremer issued a statement of condolence October 13 to the victims of the terrorist car bombing in Baghdad of October 12. According to news reports, at least six bystanders were killed and 32 injured in the explosion.” (www.usinfo.state.gov)
4 Nov 2003Garrett Business Technology © 200347 Imaging: From Film to Silicon “A day after Kodak cut their dividend from $1.80 to 50 cents to invest in its digital business, the company announced it will stop making and selling slide projectors by June 2004.” (26 September 2003 Mike Pasini, www.imaging-resource.com”
4 Nov 2003Garrett Business Technology © 200348 China’s Struggles with the Future “China has scrapped plans to show its first manned space launch live on television. The decision was prompted by official fears of "political risks" if the flight failed. Beijing says the flight will lift off from a remote desert base in the north west some time between Wednesday and Friday.” (14 October 2003 AP, www.ananova.com)www.ananova.com “Beijing has scrapped a regulation of a half century’s standing that designates accommodations for overseas guests …. Not all luxury hotels were designated to host foreign tourists in the past.” (San Francisco Chronicle, 26 October 2003)
4 Nov 2003Garrett Business Technology © 200349 What Do We Think the Future Holds? Multivote, selecting the items you think will affect your customers and partners most We’ll score the group’s collective decisions
4 Nov 2003Garrett Business Technology © 200350 Journaling Exercise: The Relationship I Want to Have With Customers and Partners in My Future Inventing the future could be lonely work, but you will certainly need resources and allies. As you develop your strategy for inventing the future you want, how would you gain the support and active assistance of your company and partners? How would you share your vision of the future with your customers? How might your customer set be different from those you have currently as a result of that vision?
4 Nov 2003Garrett Business Technology © 200351 The Future, Your Customers and Your Partners Thank You… And May Fortune Smile On You!
4 Nov 2003Garrett Business Technology © 200352 Journaling Exercise: The Relationship I Want to Have With Customers and Partners in My Future Inventing the future could be lonely work, but you will certainly need resources and allies. As you develop your strategy for inventing the future you want, how would you gain the support and active assistance of your company and partners? How would you share your vision of the future with your customers? How might your customer set be different from those you have currently as a result of that vision?
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