2 PSI Conference Dr Daniel O’Connor May 2014 Earlier Access to Medicines – Early Access to Medicines Scheme and Adaptive Licensing pilotPSI ConferenceDr Daniel O’Connor May 2014
3 DisclaimerThe views expressed do not necessarily reflect the official position of the MHRA
4 Earlier Access to medicines A key challenge confronting Regulators is earlier patient access to innovative medicines, particularly in areas of unmet medical needUltimately there is often a fine balance between ‘denying’ patients potentially useful drugs and approving products for which the drug development is considered as immatureHowever, it is recognised that with greater medical needs e.g. life threatening conditions with no adequate treatments, it is acceptable to make decisions based on a greater degree of uncertainty in the data‘Evidence versus access’ balance
5 Earlier Access to Medicines Recently two initiatives were launched to try and address some of the pressing patient access issues:A European initiative, adaptive licensing, an emerging concept of ‘staggered marketing authorisation approval’, using existing regulatory toolsThis more ‘systems approach’ involving more stakeholders, has also been called ‘Medicines Adaptive Pathways to Patients’A UK initiative, Early Access to Medicines Scheme, which aims to give access to medicines that do not yet have a marketing authorisation but meet an unmet medical need
7 EAMS Milestones Ministerial Industry Strategy Group The Prime Minister’s Strategy for UK Life SciencesEarly Access to Medicines Scheme ConsultationExpert group on the innovation in the regulation of healthcareEarly Access to Medicines Scheme consultation responseEarly Access to Medicines Scheme launchStep I: the Promising Innovative Medicine (PIM) DesignationStep II: the EAMS Scientific Opinion
8 Ministerial Industry Strategy Group (MISG) The MISG brings together government and the research-based pharmaceutical industry to promote a strong and profitable UK-based pharmaceutical industryIn 2008, a proposal for an Early Access to Medicines Scheme was developed as part of a series of events established by the MISGThe Regulatory Working Group forum considered there was support from all stakeholders that earlier access to medicines could bring benefits to patientsThe Working Group developed a framework for the EAMSAcknowledging that whilst access to such medicines will – at least in most cases – be at the end of the formal development stage, the scheme could still provide potentially life-saving treatments around one year earlier than at present
9 Ministerial Industry Strategy Group (MISG) The following eligibility criteria were proposed by the group:Medicines that will treat, diagnose or prevent life threatening, or seriously debilitating conditions without adequate treatment options;Data will be required that indicates that the benefit: risk profile of the medicine is positive and that it is likely to offer advantages over any existing treatment optionsThe scheme would be limited to medicines representing a significant advance in treatment in an area of unmet needThe scheme will be available for medicines that have completed Phase III trials but in exceptional circumstances an earlier authorisation may be possible (based on Phase II data) if information available merits it
10 Sciences – EAMS Public Consultation Strategy for UK LifeSciences – EAMS Public ConsultationIn December 2011 the Prime Minister announced a new Strategy for UK Life SciencesThe publication detailed actions aimed at maintaining the UK’s world-class reputation in life sciences, improving patient health and acting as a catalyst for economic growthOne of these commitments was that the MHRA will bring forward for consultation proposals for a new ‘Early Access Scheme’The Strategy sets out the guiding principles for the Scheme as:‘eligible products will be determined by a scientific opinion that the likely clinical benefits outweigh the risks identified to date where there is high unmet need; NHS funding for product must be cost effective; the UK economy should benefit from the scheme’
11 Sciences – EAMS Public Consultation Strategy for UK LifeSciences – EAMS Public ConsultationThe MHRA and Department Health launched a joint public consultation from 13 July to 5 October 2012The consultation introduced the scheme based on the work of the MISGThere were 26 questions in the following areas:Should a scheme be establishedScopeNumber of productsStage of developmentPatient treatment if medicine fails to be granted a licenceInformation requirementsMonitoring and surveillanceQuestions on fundingMacroeconomic gains to the UKFeesOther questions
12 EAMS Consultation Responses 52 responses were received and the Government’s response to the consultation was published in March 2014Overall, there was overwhelming support for a schemeThe Government considered that the EAMS:Addresses a public health need to improve access to important innovative medicines for patients with life threatening or seriously debilitating conditions without adequate treatment optionsDemonstrates a commitment from the UK to pharmaceutical innovation, through the Promising Innovative Medicine designation and earlier patient uptake of new innovative medicines in the health service
13 Sciences – UK Expert Group Strategy for UK LifeSciences – UK Expert GroupThe Expert Group on innovation in the regulation of healthcare was established in June 2012 following the Prime Minister’s Life Sciences StrategyA group of experts drawn from government, regulators, the NHS, industry and the academic and third sector communities will meet quarterly to discuss healthcare regulation issues, including the development of new initiatives and innovations…The group considered maximising the impact of, and learning from, the Early Access Scheme consultationThe Expert Group published a report in September 2013In the report, the group welcomed the proposal for a UK Early Access to Medicines Scheme and endorsed the draft Government response to the consultationThe group advised that the scheme should be launched as soon as cross-Government agreement was obtained
14 Strategy for UK Life Sciences – UK Expert Group The expert group also considered the regulatory flexibilities available in the USA and EU and noted that the two regulatory systems offered substantively similar flexibilitiesHowever, one difference was the FDA’s “breakthrough designation” that gave strong signals to investors on promising productsThe expert group considered that much interest has been generated by the FDA's breakthrough designation, where promising new medicinal products are designated based on preliminary clinical evidenceThe Expert Group recommended that the Government consider the possibility of adopting a designation that would send signals to investors (as does the US breakthrough designation), perhaps in the context of the proposed UK Early Access scheme
16 EAMS OverviewThe MHRA launched the scheme on the 7th of April with a dedicated EAMS webpage, coordinator and guidanceThe scheme aims to give patients with life threatening or seriously debilitating conditions access to medicines that do not yet have a marketing authorisation when there is a clear unmet medical needThe scheme is voluntary and the opinion from MHRA does not replace the normal licensing procedures for medicinesPrimarily aimed at medicines that have completed Phase III trials, but may be applied to completed Phase II trials in exceptional circumstancesThere is no set limit on the numbers of products entering the scheme provided they fulfil the criteria of the scheme
17 EAMS OverviewMHRA is responsible for the scientific aspects of the scheme and the scientific opinion will be provided after a two-step evaluation process:Step I, the Promising Innovative Medicine (PIM) designationThe designation is an early indication that a medicinal product is a promising candidate for the EAMSStep II, the Early Access to Medicines Scientific OpinionThe scientific opinion will describe the benefits and risks of the medicine and will support the prescriber and patient to make a decision on using the medicine before its licence is approved
18 Step I PIM DesignationA Promising Innovative Medicine Designation is an early indication that a medicinal product is a promising candidate for the EAMSA designation is a prerequisite to enter the EAMS scientific opinion assessment (step II)The designation will be issued after an MHRA scientific meeting on the basis of non-clinical and clinical data available on the product, in a defined disease areaApplicants may apply when data from early stages of clinical development indicates that the medicinal product fulfills the designation criteriathe product is likely to demonstrate significant benefit for patients in life-threatening or seriously debilitating conditions
19 review for EAMS opinion ‘PIM’ Step IStep IIEnterScientificreview for EAMS opinion‘PIM’designation awarded on the basis of Phase I/II dataEarly Access to Medicines pre-submission meetingEnterScientificreview for EAMS opinion‘PIM’designation awarded on the basis of Phase II dataEarly Access to Medicines pre-submission meetingScientificreview for EAMS opinionJoint ‘PIM’ designation and Early Access to Medicines pre-submission meeting, on the basis of Phase III data (exceptionally Phase II)EnterScientificreview for EAMS opinion
20 PIM - How to applyApplicants seeking a PIM designation should read the available guidance and complete the PIM designation template in full, indicating how the product fulfills the criteria for designationThe Application template includes:Administrative and product specific informationBrief details of current pharmaceutical developmentCriteria 1: Details of the condition and details of the high unmet needCriteria 2: The medicinal product is likely to offer major advantage over methods currently used in the UKCriteria 3; The potential adverse effects of the medicinal product are likely to be outweighed by the benefits, allowing for the reasonable expectation of a positive benefit/risk balanceFor the joint PIM designation/ pre-submission meeting, both a PIM designation application template and a pre-submission meeting template should be submitted at the time of the request
21 ‘Post PIM’ Designation Following designation, the applicant is expected to complete a clinical development programme within a reasonable time period, in order to continue with an application for an EAMS scientific opinionDesignation holders will also be encourage to utilise the MHRA’s support services including:The MHRA Innovation Office that helps organisations navigate the regulatory frameworkScientific advice, including:Scientific advice for specific scientific issuesBroader scope meetings on less specific topicsJoint scientific advice meetings with NICE, regarding clinical study design that will be used to satisfy regulatory and NICE requirements
22 Step II – Scientific Opinion The scientific opinion will describe the benefits and risks of the medicine and will support the prescriber and patient to make a decision on using the medicine before its licence is approvedTo enter step II, the Applicant must hold a PIM designation, complete the pre-submission template and attend (either in person or via teleconference) a pre-submission meetingThe aim of the pre-submission meeting is to ensure that the suitability criteria for the scheme are likely to be met and to discuss the format of the data to be submitted to support the benefit/risk opinionAfter the pre-submission meeting, the MHRA will make a recommendation as to whether the product is considered a suitable candidate for step II of the EAMSHowever, it is ultimately the decision of the Applicant whether to proceed with an application
23 Pre-Submission Template The pre-submission template should include:Proposed indication and brief descriptions of the following:Summary of quality and non-clinical development programme to dateJustification of eligibility for schemeLife-threatening or seriously debilitating condition in patients with a high unmet medical needData available to support a positive benefit risk balance and major advantage over methods currently used in the UKSummary of proposal for on-going collection of safety and efficacy dataDescription of format of proposed EAMS dossierDescription of on-going clinical studies and recruiting countries
24 Entry into Step IIData format requirements are in line with established regulatory guidance (CTD) and/ or option to submit non-CTD dataThe EAMS dossier should be submitted in electronic format by the date specified and agreed after the pre-submission meetingLate or invalid dossiers will not be able to enter the scheme on the preferred date as the timetables are set to coincide with our expert committee meetingsThe assessment timetable is fast and flexible, 75 (90) days vs. 150 or 210 days in the EMA centralised procedure (minus clock stops), with options:Lengthen clock stops if requiredClose before Day 75 if all issues are resolved
25 Day 75 Timetable Day 90 Timetable Days 0-45MHRA assessment & consultation with CHM/EAG, list of outstanding issues communicated to Applicant, with provisional Benefit: Risk (B:R) opinionPreliminary positive opinion(Minor issues outstanding)Preliminary negative opinion(Major issues outstanding)Applicant requests revert to Day 90 procedure15 day clock stop30 day clock stop*Days 46-75:Final B:R decision positive on or before Day 75Days 46-75:Preliminary B:Rdecision now negativeDays 46-90:Final B:R decision made on or before Day 90– positive or negative opinionMHRA considersDay 90 procedurerequired*in exceptional circumstances, the Applicant can request additional 30 days (30+30)
26 The Scientific Opinion The scientific opinion will describe the benefits and risks of the medicine, based on information submitted to the MHRA by the Applicant in a public assessment report (PAR)The PAR will be made available on the MHRA’s website to assist clinicians and patients in making treatment decisionsMore detailed product information will be provided in the EAMS Treatment Protocol, which will detail the conditions for use, ensuring safe and efficacious use of the productThe scientific opinion will be valid for one year, renewable if necessary and appropriateNegative opinions will not be published
27 The Scientific Opinion PAR What is [insert product name]?What is [insert product name] used to treat/diagnoses/prevent?How is [insert product name] used?How does [insert product name] work?How has [insert product name] been studied?What are the benefits and risks of [insert product name]?BenefitsRisks Why has [insert product name] been given a positive Early Access to Medicine Scientific opinion? What are the uncertainties?Are there on-going clinical studies?What measures are in place to monitor and manage risks?
28 Periodic UpdateDuring the opinion year, it is expected that the scientific opinion holder will provide regular updatesThe frequency and scope of these updates will be agreed before the issue of a positive scientific opinion but updates are likely be expected every 3 months and describe safety and usage of the product under the scheme, along with any safety and efficacy data from newly-completed clinical trialsMHRA will amend the PAR and treatment protocol as necessaryWhere relevant, quality, safety and efficacy data generated during the EAMS opinion should be submitted at appropriate time points during the marketing authorisation application
29 EAMS Summary Open for applications since 7th April 2014 Aim to give patients with life threatening or seriously debilitating conditions access to medicines that do not yet have a marketing authorisation when there is a clear unmet medical needThe MHRA is responsible for the scientific aspects of the scheme and the scientific opinion will be provided after a two-step evaluation processDetailed guidance and templates can be found on the EAMS webpageSupport through the EAMS coordinator, to provide help and assistance regarding any aspect of the schemeNew scheme – New processes - MHRA plan to collection information from applicants on their experiences of the scheme (using an electronic survey)
31 Marketing Authorisation Medicinal products for human use may only be placed on the market in the EU if a marketing authorisation has been issued by the Community or by a competent authority of a member stateFor a medicine to be licensed, a marketing authorisation application must be submitted to a national competent authority or the European Medicines Agency (EMA)
32 Centralised Procedure Regulation (EC) No 726/2004 lays down a centralised procedure for the authorisation of medicinal products:Single application and evaluationSingle authorisation granted by the ECThe types of product which fall within the mandatory scope of the centralised procedure include:Medicinal products derived from biotechnology e.g. those derived from recombinant DNA technology or monoclonal antibody methodsNew Active Substances in the treatment of AIDS, cancer, neurodegenerative disorders, diabetes, autoimmune diseases and other immune dysfunctions and viral diseasesOrphan medicinal productsOptional scope e.g. products that constitute a significant therapeutic, scientific or technical innovation
33 Centralised Procedure Administered by the European Medicines Agency (EMA)The Committee for Medicinal Products for Human Use (CHMP) of the EMA is responsible for preparing the scientific opinionResults in a single Community authorisation granted by the European CommissionNo country withdrawals - ‘all or none’
34 Centralised Procedure A Rapporteur and Co-Rapporteur are appointed from CHMP membersThe role of the Rapporteurs is to perform the scientific evaluation and to prepare an assessment report, according to the agreed timetableIn the context of quality assurance, CHMP members may be assigned to peer review the Rapporteurs’ scientific evaluationCHMP may consult its scientific advisory groups (e.g. SAG-O) and working parties (e.g. Biologics Working Party – BWP)The opinion of the CHMP is given within 210 days (less clock-stops for the applicant to provide answers to questions from the CHMP)
35 Accelerated Assessment When a MAA is submitted for a product which is of major public health interest, in particular from the viewpoint of therapeutic innovation, the applicant may request an accelerated assessment procedureThe standard timetable is reduced to 150 daysAn applicant should notify the intent to submit a request for an accelerated assessment procedureJustification for a request for accelerated assessment should include a description of:The unmet medical needsThe extent to which the medicinal product is expected to have major impact on medical practice
36 Centralised Procedure A marketing authorisation application may result in:Grant (full approval)Grant with conditionsThe Commission is empowered to impose on the marketing authorisation holder the obligation to conduct post-authorisation studies on safety and on efficacy, as a condition of the marketing authorisationConditional approvalFor certain medicines, in order to meet unmet medical needs of patients and in the interest of public health, it may be necessary to grant marketing authorisations on the basis of less complete data than is normally requiredApproval under exceptional circumstancesThe Applicant must demonstrate that he is unable to provide comprehensive data on the efficacy and safety under normal conditions of use
37 Summary of MA routes National MRP Centralised DCP Fast track assessment(National only)Accelerated assessmentMarketing authorisationGrant (full approval)Grant with conditionsConditional approvalExceptional circumstancesGrantGrant with conditionsExceptional circumstances
38 Adaptive Licensing (AL) Adaptive licensing is proposed to be stepwise learning under conditions of acknowledged uncertainty, with iterative phases of data gathering and regulatory evaluation - a life-cycle approachThis is in contrast to traditional drug licensing approaches that are based on binary decisions, where an experimental therapy is transformed into a ‘fully’ vetted therapy at the moment of licensingThe aim is to maximise the positive impact of new drugs on public health by:Balancing timely access for patients to treatments that promise to address serious conditions where there is an unmet needWith the need to provide adequate evolving information on the benefits and harms
39 Adaptive Licensing (AL) AL is defined by the EMA as a prospectively planned, adaptive approach to bringing drugs to market;Starting from an authorised indication, most likely a “niche” indicationFollowed by iterative phases of evidence gathering and progressive licensing adaptations, concerning both the authorised indication and further therapeutic uses of the drugAL uses the regulatory processes that exist with the EU frameworkStakeholders other than regulators and industry need to be involved in planning and agreeing the manner in which clinical trial and post-authorisation data will be generated for decision making:e.g. Reimbursement authorities, patient organisations, societies involved in treatment guidelines
40 The EMA pilotAn AL discussion group was set up by the EMA in 2012, with members from across the various scientific committees e.g. CHMP, COMPFollowing work performed by the group, the EMA recently launched an adaptive licensing pilot (March 2014) to discuss prospective case studiesThe purpose of the pilot is to provide a framework for informal interactions by discussing ‘live assets’, i.e. medicines currently under developmentIt is hoped that all stakeholders will be able to address a range of technical and scientific questionsHelp refine how future AL pathways might be designedWhat might be achieved by ALHow best to address the potential blocking factorsTo identify additional hurdles or issues that may not have become apparent yet
41 The EMA pilotGuidance and a framework to guide discussions of individual pilot studies has been published, alongside some retrospective case studiesDiscussions on possible AL pathways of a live asset are of an exploratory natureThus the pilot offers a safe-harbour environment for informal, non-binding discussions between regulators and companies with an ‘asset’ that may be suitable for this approachStrengths and weaknesses of all options for development, licensing and assessment may be explored openly and discussed without fear or favour in advance of more formal interactions e.g. scientific adviceCompanies who are interested in participating are invited to submit medicines for consideration as prospective pilot casesLive assets shall be experimental drugs or biologicals in the early stage of clinical development to enable actionable input from stakeholders (prior to initiation of confirmatory studies)
42 The EMA pilotCompanies should complete a high-level framework on which to base the pilot studyProduct name/identifierSummary of relevant product data and development to date (Licensing history and interactions with health authorities/payers/HTA bodies)Proposal for development under adaptive licensing‘adaptive’ strategies for development, licensing, patient access, appropriate utilization, and monitoring that could be considered, using existing regulatory toolsOutline a vision and timeline for how regulatory, payer and other stakeholders’ interactions might look, including indicative timelines for regulatory evaluation and decision making through the product lifecycle
43 AL SummaryAL would not result in a new type of Marketing Authorisation as the process would uses existing regulatory tools e.g. ‘Conditional’ MAThe novel aspects of an adaptive licensing from the perspective of the regulator relate to increased dialogue with other stakeholders and increased collection and utilisation of post-authorisation dataPossible benefits of AL could include:Maximize the positive impact of new drugs on public health by balancing timely access for patients with the need to provide adequate evolving information on benefits and harmMore rapid access to patients in greatest needStreamlined drug development with efficient generation of evidence to satisfy the needs of multiple stakeholders using parallel ‘Scientific Advice’Potential for more rapid return on investmentEarlier dialogue promoting more certainty for the drug developer
50 Problem statementFailure rate of Phase III trial reaches to 50%, part of the failure is attribute to improper target dose estimation and selection in Phase II, and incorrect/incomplete dose-response knowledge;A number of high-profile withdrawals from market of approved drugs;FDA reported 20% of the approved drugs between 1980 and 1989 had the initial dose changed by more than 33%, in most cases lowering it.
51 Current approaches Differ by therapeutic area, but… Narrow dose range (3-4 fold max?)Few doses (2-3 max)Analysed through pairwise comparisons to placebo, e.g. ANOVAInefficientWrong question?Multiple tests
52 Other background EMA/EFPIA workshop on M&S, 2011. Re: dose-finding: Some surprise that we are interestedWork done that we don’t seeRegulatory attitude to exploratory development‘therapeutic efficacy’ and ‘benefit-risk’ - in the end if ‘benefit-risk’ is positive we will (must) licence it regardless of dose‘dose-selection is the sponsors risk’
53 Other background EMA/EFPIA workshop on M&S, 2011. Re: dose-finding: Some surprise that we are interestedWork done that we don’t seeRegulatory attitude to exploratory development‘therapeutic efficacy’ and ‘benefit-risk’ - in the end if ‘benefit-risk’ is positive we will (must) licence it regardless of dose‘dose-selection is the sponsors risk’selecting dose on a weak basis is a risk for development
54 Sound science (1)“What is most helpful in choosing the starting dose of a drug is knowing the shape and location of the population (group) average dose-response curve for both desirable and undesirable effects.”“Assessment of dose-response should be an integral component of drug development with studies designed to assess dose-response an inherent part of establishing the safety and effectiveness of the drug. If development of dose-response information is built into the development process it can usually be accomplished with no loss of time and minimal extra effort compared to development plans that ignore dose-response.”
55 Sound science (2)“Conducting dose-response studies at an early stage of clinical development may reduce the number of failed phase 3 trials, speeding the drug development process and conserving development resources.”“in light of the studies that partly defined the proper dose range, further dose-finding might be pursued in the post-marketing period”
56 Sound science (3)“It is important to choose as wide a range of doses as is compatible with practicality and patient safety to discern clinically meaningful differences.”“It is all too common to discover, at the end of a parallel dose-response study, that all doses were too high (on the plateau of the dose-response curve), or that doses did not go high enough. A formally planned interim analysis (or other multi-stage design) might detect such a problem and allow study of the proper dose range.”
57 Sound science (4)“Several dose levels are needed, at least two in addition to placebo, but in general, study of more than the minimum number of doses is desirable. A single dose level of drug versus placebo allows a test of the null hypothesis of no difference between drug and placebo, but cannot define the dose-response relationship. Similarly, although a linear relationship can be derived from the response to two active doses (without placebo), this approximation is usually not sufficiently informative. Study designs usually should emphasize elucidation of the dose-response function, not individual pairwise comparisons.
58 Sound science (5)“Agencies should also be open to the use of various statistical and pharmacometric techniques such as Bayesian and population methods, modeling, and pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic approaches.”From which document are these quotes?
59 Sound science (6)ICH E4 - DOSE-RESPONSE INFORMATION TO SUPPORT DRUG REGISTRATION 1994 !! Not novel in principle
60 Background on MCP-Mod methodology MCP-Mod stands for: Multiple Comparisons & ModellingCombines testing and estimationDesign stagePre-specification of candidate dose-response modelsAnalysis stage: MCP-stepStatistical test for dose-response signal. Model-selection based on significant dose-response modelsAnalysis stage: Mod-stepDose-response and target dose estimation based on dose-response modellingDifference to traditional ANOVA approachUse of dose-response modellingBut, taking model uncertainty into account at design and analysis stage| SAWP Discussion Meeting | Novartis | 10 July 2013 | MCP-Mod Qualification Opinion | Business Use Only
61 Basic idea - modellingAs one of the two major classical strategies in dose finding trials: multiple comparison procedures and model-based approaches.Assumes a functional relationship between the response and the dose (a quantitative factor) according to a pre-specified parametric model, e.g. logistic, an Emax or a linear log-dose model;The fitted model is then used to estimate an adequate dose to achieve a desired response.However, validity of trial conclusions highly depends on the correct choice of the dose-response model, which is an unknown priori.Choice of a working model may have a substantial impact on dose selection, and model selection using observed data needs to account for statistical uncertainty and associated multiplicity issues.
62 MCP-mod - DescriptionThe MCP-Mod approach impacts both the design and the analysis of dose finding studiesAt the trial design stage, a suitable set of candidate models is identified in repeated clinical team discussions, which also impacts decisions on the number of doses, required sample sizes, patient allocations, etc.At the trial analysis stage, dose response is tested using suitable trend tests deduced from the set of candidate models. Once a dose response signal is established, the best model(s) out of the set of pre-specified candidate models is (are) then used for dose response and estimation of target dose or dose range.
63 MCP-mod - Description Step 1: Set of candidate models Step 2: Optimal model contrastsStep 3: Testing for dose response signalStep 4: Model selectionStep 5: Dose estimation
65 Power to detect dose response under active DR profiles.
66 Probabilities of identifying clinical relevant dose under flat dose response.
67 MCP-mod - ValidationIt is concluded that MCP-Mod controls type I error rate and is less likely (than ANOVA) to identify a clinically relevant dose in the absence of dose-response (flat profile). It is further concluded that under active dose-response profiles the probability of identifying dose-response will be higher, though the probability of identifying a clinically relevant dose will depend on the shape of the dose-response curve. For the simulations investigated MCP-Mod appears to be better, at least on average, than an ANOVA based approach in terms of bias and absolute error. It is widely known of course that biased estimates will, on average, result when selecting a dose based on a particularly impressive pairwise comparison to control because of random highs and this phenomenon is displayed in the simulations, but controlled by MCP-Mod.
68 ExampleChronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD). The investigational drug NVA237 is a dry powder formulation of the muscarinic receptor antagonist glycopyrronium bromide being developed by NovartisThe primary purpose of the A2205 study was to provide data about the risk-benefit of four doses of NVA237 (12.5, 25, 50 and 100μg o.d.) and open-label tiotropium (18μg) so that an optimal dose of NVA237 can be chosen for Phase III studiesFEV1
70 Example Step 2: Optimal model contrasts Step 3: Testing for dose response signalApplying the optimal contrasts to the treatment estimates, one obtains that all contrasts had test statistics > 6 and multiplicity adjusted p-values < As a result, the significance of the dose response signal was established and all models were considered in the next step.
71 Example Step 4: Model selection The AIC criterion was used to select the best model. Note that, even though there are two Emax shapes in the candidate set, only one Emax fit is obtained. Based on the AIC results, the Emax model was chosen to represent the dose response profile.
72 Example Step 5: Dose estimation Based on the fitted Emax of Step 4, the smallest dose giving the clinically relevant improvement over placebo of 0.12 L is estimated to be 44 μg. This is the MED estimate produced by MCP-Mod in this study. The precision of the MED estimate was evaluated via a bootstrap approach: The 90% confidence interval for the MED, corresponding to the 5% and 95% quantiles of the bootstrap sample, was [18, 81], reflecting the uncertainty in the estimate. Figure 3-6 displays the fitted model and corresponding confidence intervals.A side note on interpolation
73 MCP-mod - Conclusions… a strategy based on a modelling approach that attempts to quantify a dose-response relationship may offer an improved basis for decision making and it is arguable therefore that to qualify MCP-Mod as an improvement over the commonly used approach is uncontroversial … much of the theory underpinning the proposed method is not novel, yet the use of this type of approach in regulatory submissions remains rare and hence, the fact that these sub-optimal approaches persist makes this a relevant topic for a CHMP opinion.… more broadly, it is considered that the planning needed to implement MCP-Mod will be beneficial for trial design both in terms of the number of doses and the increase in the range of doses studied, and also in that the consequences and risks of selecting a particular trial objective, design and sample size will be better understood by all stakeholders.
74 MCP-mod - ConclusionsAnother interesting part of the procedure relates to the control for multiple comparisons. Designing an experiment that permits conclusions to be drawn with control of false-positive error rate is clearly desirable for the study sponsor. It is mandated by regulators in the confirmatory phase of development, though not in the exploratory phase that is under discussion here, where factors other than strict type I error control may influence decisions regarding future clinical development. The choice of 5% used by the applicant in their illustrations is arbitrary and could be varied based on the certainty that the applicant wish to have for their decision-making.
75 MCP-mod - ConclusionsIt is concluded that the MCP-Mod approach can be qualified as an efficient statistical methodology for model-based design and analysis of phase II dose finding studies under model uncertaintyMCP-Mod represents one tool in the toolbox of the well-informed drug developer. In that sense, this opinion does not preclude any other statistical methodology for model-based design and analysis of exploratory dose finding studies from being used.
76 MCP-mod - Public consultation Lots of modelling approaches are possibleMost modelling is (almost by definition) without control for multiple testingDon’t only focus on doseAgree, providing this is not the only permitted approachA side note on adaptive allocation
77 MCP-mod - Public consultation The current work covers a very important topic. Phase II dose response studies should be designed and analysed around dose response modelling. It is woeful that in 2013 we are discussing whether dose response modelling should be employed for dose response studies. Of course they must be. Are there idiots out there who would disagree?! The "current practice" of multiple pairwise comparisons to placebo is truly terrible. The document comments that "...that current practice is repeatedly sub-optimal and inefficient." This sentence is "too polite". To design studies to determine the dose response without consideration of dose response modelling is wholly unscientific and unethical.For an overview on how I see drug development, you might wish to view:
78 What does it mean for us? Not sure yet Potentially, more complex, but larger and more informative exploratory trialsEMA workshop on dose-finding, Dec 2014
79 ConclusionsMCP-Mod approach is qualified as an efficient statistical methodology for model-based design and analysis of phase II dose finding studies under model uncertainty= we have seen it, thought about it and, within the context of use, endorse it (in principle).Qualification speaks to MCP-mod but should also stimulate awareness that regulators value dose-finding and exploratory development
82 Broad and Complete Data Sources Used for Model Development 11 April 2017Broad and Complete Data Sources Used for Model DevelopmentData to inform natural history of ADData from multiple sponsors to inform control arm elements-Placebo response-Drop-out-Covariate effectsTool is unique in that it also utilizes Literature meta data to inform drug responses-Marketed Symptomatic AgentsMagnitude, onset of effect, offset
83 The idea is to model the data from the placebo arms of clinical trials in Alzheimer’s disease Use the model to help the planning of future trialsPerform clinical trial simulationsOptimise the design in terms of aspects such as time-points to measure at, study duration, important covariates, sample size, crossover/parallel group etc
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