1. The Basic Principle of Integrated Risk Assessment Chongfu Huang Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management Civil Affairs & Ministry of Education, Beijing 100875, China September 25, 2007hchongfu@bnu.edu.cn1 The First International Conference on Risk Analysis and Crisis Response September 25-26, 2007. Shanghai, China www.jalali-hse.blogfa.com

2. Contents 1. Introduction 2. Definition of Risk 3. Integrated Risk Assessment 4. A New Risk Categorization 5. A Formal Model 6. A Project 7. Conclusion September 25, 2007hchongfu@bnu.edu.cn2/26 www.jalali-hse.blogfa.com

3. 1.Introduction September 25, 2007hchongfu@bnu.edu.cn3/26 www.jalali-hse.blogfa.com

4. Pattern for  Australian Pattern for Emergency Risk Management (ERM) September 25, 2007hchongfu@bnu.edu.cn4/26 www.jalali-hse.blogfa.com

5. September 25, 2007hchongfu@bnu.edu.cn5/26 Canadian Pattern for Risk Management www.jalali-hse.blogfa.com

6. September 25, 2007hchongfu@bnu.edu.cn6/26 A Trapezoid Framework for Integrated Risk Management Risk Consciousness Quantifying Analysis Root Body Optimizing Decision Making Action www.jalali-hse.blogfa.com

7. September 25, 2007hchongfu@bnu.edu.cn7/26 Model(s) Risk: Probability, Possibility Destruction, Vulnerability Loss, …… www.jalali-hse.blogfa.com

8. September 25, 2007hchongfu@bnu.edu.cn8/26 www.jalali-hse.blogfa.com

9. 2. Definition of Risk September 25, 2007hchongfu@bnu.edu.cn9/26 Safety Laws Infrastructure Risk Natural Disaster Accident Catastrophe Public Health Social Safety www.jalali-hse.blogfa.com

10. Risk in English  The word risk stems from the early Italian word, riscare, which meant ‘to dare’. This means that risk denotes a conscious selection of an alternative, rather than being a question of fate.  The use of the term does vary considerably in connection to the discipline or industry to which it is applied. September 25, 2007hchongfu@bnu.edu.cn10/26 www.jalali-hse.blogfa.com

11. Risk ？  There is no widely accepted definition of risk  Webster Dictionary --- Possibility of loss or injury  Insurance --- Possibility of loss  Natural Disaster --- Exposure of people to a hazardous event  There are more than 22 definitions of risk http://www.ehs.unu.edu/moodle/mod/glossary/view.php? id=1&mode=letter&hook=R&sortkey=&sortorder=&full search=0&page=-1 September 25, 2007hchongfu@bnu.edu.cn11/26 www.jalali-hse.blogfa.com

12. Risk in Chinese The concept of risk in Chinese is represented in two Chinese characters: ``feng'' and ``xian,'' wind danger 风 险 September 25, 2007hchongfu@bnu.edu.cn12/26 www.jalali-hse.blogfa.com

13. September 25, 2007hchongfu@bnu.edu.cn13/26 Wind stone hook Fig.1. A stone-hook-wind system (SHW-system) showing risk. www.jalali-hse.blogfa.com

14. Scene: something seen by a viewer Adverse: harmful or unfavorable A scene must be described with a system consisting of time, site and objects. The association would be measured with a metric space (such as probability). Incident would be scaled with a magnitude (such as loss). September 25, 2007hchongfu@bnu.edu.cn14/26 Risk is a scene in the future associated with some adverse incident. www.jalali-hse.blogfa.com

15.  In general, we consider integrated risk assessment as a holistic approach to risk assessment.  Integrated risk management to a holistic approach to risk management. i.e., integrated risk assessment = integrated “risk assessment” integrated risk management = integrated “risk management” Assess risks by using all resources and techniques Manage risks in collaboration with all corresponding departments and agencies September 25, 2007hchongfu@bnu.edu.cn15/26 www.jalali-hse.blogfa.com

16. The basic principle of integrated risk assessment Firstly, experts identify all risk sources in the system and provide the possibility values to show when, where and how a risk source impacts the system. Then, the system analysts construct the relationship between the risk sources and adverse incidents according to natural laws or statistical experiences. Finally, the integrated risk analysts infer the possibility values for the occurrence of adverse incidents based on the results from the risk source experts and the system analysts. September 25, 2007hchongfu@bnu.edu.cn16/26 www.jalali-hse.blogfa.com

17. September 25, 2007hchongfu@bnu.edu.cn17/26 Probability distributions of the risk sources ( Firstly ) Relationships between the risk sources and adverse incidents ( Then ) The supercube for inferring the risk ( Finally ) Fig.2. Illustration of the basic principle of integrated risk assessment, where the curves would be complicated surface. www.jalali-hse.blogfa.com

18. integrated “risk assessment” September 25, 2007hchongfu@bnu.edu.cn18/26 “integrated risk” assessment” The basic principle of integrated risk assessment Integrated risk is defined as any scene in the future associated with integrated adverse incident.  Simple integrated risk risk sources are mutually independent e.g. intergrated risk related to earthquake and flood  Complicated integrated risk risk sources are intersecting e.g. intergrated risk related to a disaster chain www.jalali-hse.blogfa.com

19. September 25, 2007hchongfu@bnu.edu.cn19/26 4. A New Risk Categorization Starr’ s Categorization (1977)  Real risk --- eventually determined by future circumstances when they fully develop;  Statistical risk --- determined by currently available data, typically measured actuarially for insurance premium and other purposes;  Predicted risk --- predicted analytically from system models structured from historical studies;  Perceived risk --- intuitively seen by individuals. IRGC’ s Categorization (2005)  Simple risk --- there is a clear cause and effect ;  Complexity risk --- difficultly identifying and quantifying causal links between a multitude of potential causal agents and specific observed effects in a system or a system component.  Uncertainty risk --- human knowledge is always incomplete and selective and thus contingent on uncertain assumptions, assertions and predictions;  Ambiguity risk --- giving rise to several meaningful and legitimate interpretations of accepted risk assessments results. Huang’ s Categorization (2007)  Pseudo risk --- we are able to accurately predict by using system models and currently available data;  Probability risk --- we are able to statistically predict by using probability models and a lot of data;  Fuzzy risk --- we are able to approximately infer by using fuzzy logic and incomplete information;  Uncertain risk --- impossible to predict or infer by using any existing approach. A uncertain risk might become a pseudo risk, tomorrow! www.jalali-hse.blogfa.com

20. September 25, 2007hchongfu@bnu.edu.cn20/26  H, family of functions describing risk sources e.g., p （ X ， Y ， Z,… ）  D, family of functions describing dose- response relationships e.g., f （ X ， Y ， Z,… ） =0  o, family of composition rules e.g., “+”, “X”, “Max-Min” Risk: R =HoD 5. A Formal Model www.jalali-hse.blogfa.com

21. September 25, 2007hchongfu@bnu.edu.cn21/26 R =HoD Max-Min Fuzzy risk represented by a fuzzy matrix www.jalali-hse.blogfa.com

22. September 25, 2007hchongfu@bnu.edu.cn22/26 6. A Project  Program category: National Key Technology Research and Development Program  Project: Technology of Integrated Risk Assessment  Funded by: Ministry of Science and Technology  Implementation time ： 2006 － 2010  Serving for: Chinese Insurance industry www.jalali-hse.blogfa.com

23. Flowchart of integrated risk classification and assessment technology September 25, 2007hchongfu@bnu.edu.cn23/26 Acceptable risk rules Risk frequency analysis Risk loss analysis Measures to reduce risk Simple risk Complexity-induced risk Uncertainty-induced risk Ambiguity-induced risk Risk assessment indices Risk assessment models Risk assessment model Model validation www.jalali-hse.blogfa.com

24. September 25, 2007hchongfu@bnu.edu.cn24/26  It is a serious problem to answer “What is risk?” when we are talking that we are in a risk society.  In China, “risk” is a concept connected to “wind” and “danger.”  A new definition: Risk is a scene in the future associated with some adverse incident.  The basic principle of integrated risk assessment: Inferring a risk based on the results from the risk source experts and the system analysts.  A New Risk Categorization: Pseudo risk, probability risk, fuzzy risk, uncertain risk 7. Conclusion www.jalali-hse.blogfa.com