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HYMN meeting Brussel 12.10 2009 Results from EU project Eurohydros Modeling hydrogen using the Oslo CTM2 model.

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Presentation on theme: "HYMN meeting Brussel 12.10 2009 Results from EU project Eurohydros Modeling hydrogen using the Oslo CTM2 model."— Presentation transcript:

1 HYMN meeting Brussel 12.10 2009 Results from EU project Eurohydros Modeling hydrogen using the Oslo CTM2 model.

2 Modeling H 2 in the troposphere and stratosphere H 2 chemistry included in both troposphere and stratosphere. Emissions: Retro CO scaled (0.6ppb/ppb) and forest fires from Global Fire Emission Database (GFEDv2). Deposition: Eurohydros deposition (soil work shop 2009) poleward of 30N/30S, but slightly modified. Norhern Hemisphere: Min/max at 1Feb/1Aug (10 -4 m/s) v(NH) = 3.52 + 2sin( [-1/2 + 2(day-32)/365]*pi ) Southern Hemisphere: Min/max at 1Aug/1Feb (10 -4 m/s) v(SH) = 3.52 + 2sin( [1/2 + 2(day-32)/365]*pi ) Tropics: 3.52x10 -4 m/s v is halved every 20cm of snow depth. Modification: poleward of 60N and when snow < 40cm, v is reduced according to Price et al 2006 (halving v at 273K, and again at 258K).

3 H 2 budget OsloCTM2 Global burden troposphereH 2 (Tg)150,69 Global burden tropopsphere+stratosphere H 2 (Tg)185,35 SinksLost to OH (Tg/yr)25,91 Deposition (Tg/yr)49,34 (65.5 %) SourcesEmitted (Tg/yr)27,44 From CH 2 O (Tg/yr)48,23 (From CH 4 via CH 2 O (Tg/yr))(28,12) Net (sources-sinks)(Tg/yr)0,01 Lifetime (years)2,01

4 Zonal mean distribution H 2 + OH large in summer (sunlight) cause stratospheric minimum at high latitudes/altitudes. Minimum at 32km (high latitudes) in winter is residue from summer, transported downwards. Clear interhemispheric gradient at the surface.

5 Surface distribution Clear interhemispheric gradient, due to the soil uptake. Large values in very polluted areas, and due to biomass burning.

6 Obs: 2007 Obs: 2006 1 outlier removed Zeppelin – a closer look

7 Obs: 2008 1 outlier removed Obs: 2007 3 outliers removed Mace Head – a closer look

8 Obs: 2008 Obs: 2007 Pallas – a closer look

9 In general good agreement at remote sites. But missing sources clearly ”identifiable” occationally at some sites (Mace Head, Ile Amsterdam), for others more frequently (Voeikovo). High latitudes Northern Hemisphere continent H 2 is underestimated at all seasons (e.g. Pallas). Summary on H 2 modeling Possible reasons: Soil uptake too high at mid-latitudes, so depleted H 2 is transported polewards Unresolved emissions at high latitudes. A global scaling for H 2 /CO may be wrong; different sources may have different ratios, or it may be latitude dependent.

10 HYMN meeting Brussel 12.10 2009 H 2 scenario studies HYMN D5.5 Possible future effects on methane (climate) and ozone (pollution) of the transformation to a hydrogen economy

11 Motivation Hydrogen fuel cells proposed as a promising alternative or replacement of conventional fossil fuel engines. Use of fuel cells in road vehicles where hydrogen is oxidized to produce electric power has been anticipated to expand substantially in the coming decades.

12 Time frame and geographical coverage needed to be defined Main decisive factor: Availability of emission scenarios Europe, year 2030

13 HyWays (2004-2007) - an integrated project to develop the European Hydrogen Energy Roadmap Timeframes 2020, 2030 and 2050, The 10 member countries stated specific results: Preferred hydrogen production, infrastructure and end-use technologies, greenhouse gas emissions Integrated into a proposal for an EU Hydrogen Energy Roadmap for the participating areas.

14 Findings Substantial emission reduction can be achieved in a cost effective way. Security of supply is improved and new economic opportunities are created. Despite these advantages, initial barriers prevent hydrogen from entering the energy system at a sufficient pace in case no further policy incentives are provided. The Action Plan provides concrete actions that need to be taken with priority in order to overcome smoothly the initial barriers

15 Emission sector Hydrogen fuel cells have been proposed as a promising alternative or replacement of conventional fossil fuel engines. Use of fuel cells in road vehicles where hydrogen is oxidized to produce electric power has been anticipated to expand substantially in the coming decades.

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17 Hyways roadmap scenarios + baseline scenario used in the TREMOVE model to calculate tank to wheel emissions of ozone precursors and greenhouse gases. The TREMOVE model estimates the transport demand, the modal split, the vehicle stock turnover, the emissions of air pollutants and the welfare levels in 31 European countries under different policy scenario up to 2030. For HYMN simulations: Assumption that the Hyways roadmap for 10 countries were applied in 2030 in all 31 countries provided in the TREMOVE.

18 Annual CO 2 emissions from European road transport 200020102020203020402050 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 Mtons/a Emission reduction potential Base line (-30% CO 2 ) Modest policy support, modest learning High policy support, high learning Very high support, high learning Hydrogen scenarios:

19 ScenariosNOx emissionsCO emissionsH 2 emissionsVOC emissions Baseline 2030 relative to year 2000 -67 %-89.4 % -88.3 % Hydrogen scenario 2030 relative to baseline 2030 -24.2 %-26.7 %-26.7 % (no leakage)-27.5 % The baseline scenario strongly depends on assumptions on oil price, emission reduction targets and alternative motor fuels. Already in 2030 a large reduction of emissions from the road transport is expected. This development is quite similar to the scenarios for road transport used in the EU project Quantify (Hoor et al., 2009). Assumed reductions in total tank to wheel emissions for road transport in Europe in 2030

20 Hyways only give tank to wheel emissions What about well to tank ? (Emissions of pollutants during production, processing transport etc) Hyways lacks Hydrogen emission scenarios (leakage) from both well to tank and tank to wheel

21 Study including well to tank and hydrogen Switching to a U.S. hydrogen fuel cell vehicle fleet: The resultant change in emissions, energy use, and greenhouse gases W.G. Colella, M.Z. Jacobson, D.M. Golden, Journal of Power Sources 2005 Cleaning the air and improving health with hydrogen fuel-cell vehicles M.Z. Jacobson, W.G. Colella, D.M. Golden, Science 308 (2005)

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23 Figure taken from web page of

24 Switching to a U.S. hydrogen fuel cell vehicle fleet: The resultant change in emissions, energy use, and greenhouse gases W.G. Colella, M.Z. Jacobson, D.M. Golden

25 ScenariosNOx emissionsCO emissionsH 2 emissionsVOC emissions Baseline 2030 relative to year 2000 -67 %-89.4 % -88.3 % Hydrogen scenario 2030 relative to baseline 2030 -24.2 %-26.7 %-26.7 % (no leakage) > 0 % (assuming a leakage rate of 1.5 % ) -27.5 % Simplification: Negligible well to tank emissions, except for hydrogen

26 Average surface ozone (ppbv) in July 2000.

27 Relative change in July surface ozone (%) in the 2030 baseline simulation compared to the year 2000 simulation Change in July surface ozone (ppbv) in the 2030 baseline simulation compared to the year 2000 simulation

28 Relative change in July surface ozone (%) in the 2030 hydrogen simulation compared to the baseline 2030 simulation

29 Impacts on methane Constitutes a few percent of the loss of OH from the troposphere. OH HO 2 h, H 2 O NO O3O3 CO, CH4, NMVOCs Reductions in CO, NOx, VOCs emissions Changes in H 2 emissions

30 The yearly mean global sink of methane (k x OH x CH 4 ) changes by only – 0.01 % for the baseline 2030 relative to year 2000. Small change (-0.025 % relative to baseline 2030) with the introduction of hydrogen. Mainly three reasons: 1)The European road transport emissions are rather small compared to the total global anthropogenic emissions. 2)Concurrent reductions of both CO and NOx have opposite effects on global OH levels (Dalsøren and Isaksen 2006). 3)The reaction rate of OH with methane is more sensitive to emission changes at lower latitudes due to its temperature dependency.

31 Conclusions We find rather small changes in tropospheric hydrogen, methane and ozone if we introduce hydrogen fuel to road transport in 2030 in 31 European countries and assume no changes in emissions for other sectors or geographical regions. Exception: Surface ozone reductions probably important in heavy polluted regions Important uncertainties Assumed rather clean well to tank technology and negligible pollutant emissions from well to tank compared to tank to wheel. Dependent on the assumptions for the baseline 2030 emissions, that is the background scenario for European road transport emissions in 2030 without introduction of hydrogen. The introduction of hydrogen fuel cells is in an early phase in 2030, and towards 2050 there is a strong increase in the expected hydrogen use. Likely that the impacts of hydrogen fuel could be larger towards 2050, (but again this will depend on the vehicle emissions from the rest of fuel types used, emissions scenarios for other sectors and geographical regions, and changes in climate.)

32 Leading vehicle manufacturers in fuel cell technology—Daimler AG, Ford Motor Company, General Motors Corporation/Opel, Honda Motor Co., Ltd., Hyundai Motor Company, Kia Motors Corporation, the alliance Renault SA and Nissan Motor Corporation and Toyota Motor Corporation—issued a joint a Letter of Understanding (LoU) regarding the development and market introduction of fuel cell electric vehicles.issued The signing automobile manufacturers strongly anticipate that from 2015 onwards, a “quite significant” number—a “few hundred thousand units” over the initial products’ lifecycles—of fuel cell electric vehicles could be commercialized. These companies have built up extensive expertise in fuel cell technology; the signing marks a major industry step towards the serial production of such locally emission-free vehicles. As every vehicle manufacturer will implement its own specific production and commercial strategies as well as timelines, commercialization of electric vehicles powered by fuel cells may occur earlier than 2015, the automakers noted. Highlight from recent news


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