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ERA ENVIRONMENTAL RISK ASSESSMENT Dihimpun oleh: Sri Utami, A. Ali, Sopingi, F. Warrouw dan Soemarno PSL-PDKLP-PPSUB Malang, Januari 2013.

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Presentation on theme: "ERA ENVIRONMENTAL RISK ASSESSMENT Dihimpun oleh: Sri Utami, A. Ali, Sopingi, F. Warrouw dan Soemarno PSL-PDKLP-PPSUB Malang, Januari 2013."— Presentation transcript:

1 ERA ENVIRONMENTAL RISK ASSESSMENT Dihimpun oleh: Sri Utami, A. Ali, Sopingi, F. Warrouw dan Soemarno PSL-PDKLP-PPSUB Malang, Januari 2013

2 UNDANG-UNDANG REPUBLIK INDONESIA UNDANG-UNDANG REPUBLIK INDONESIA NOMOR 32 TAHUN 2009 TENTANG PERLINDUNGAN DAN PENGELOLAAN LINGKUNGAN HIDUP Paragraf 11 ANALISIS RISIKO LINGKUNGAN HIDUP Pasal 47 (1) Setiap usaha dan/atau kegiatan yang berpotensi menimbulkan dampak penting terhadap lingkungan hidup, ancaman terhadap ekosistem dan kehidupan, dan/atau kesehatan dan keselamatan manusia wajib melakukan analisis risiko lingkungan hidup. (2) Analisis risiko lingkungan hidup sebagaimana dimaksud pada ayat (1) meliputi: a. pengkajian risiko; b. pengelolaan risiko; dan/atau c. komunikasi risiko Diunduh dari: ………. 8/1/2013

3 PENJELASAN PASAL-PASAL Pasal 47 Ayat (1) Yang dimaksud dengan “analisis risiko lingkungan” adalah prosedur yang antara lain digunakan untuk mengkaji pelepasan dan peredaran produk rekayasa genetik dan pembersihan (clean up) limbah B3. Ayat (2) Huruf a Dalam ketentuan ini “pengkajian risiko” meliputi seluruh proses mulai dari identifikasi bahaya, penaksiran besarnya konsekuensi atau akibat, dan penaksiran kemungkinan munculnya dampak yang tidak diinginkan, baik terhadap keamanan dan kesehatan manusia maupun lingkungan hidup. Huruf b Dalam ketentuan ini “pengelolaan risiko” meliputi evaluasi risiko atau seleksi risiko yang memerlukan pengelolaan, identifikasi pilihan pengelolaan risiko, pemilihan tindakan untuk pengelolaan, dan pengimplementasian tindakan yang dipilih. Huruf c Yang dimaksud dengan “komunikasi risiko” adalah proses interaktif dari pertukaran informasi dan pendapat di antara individu, kelompok, dan institusi yang berkenaan dengan risiko Diunduh dari: ………. 8/1/2013 Pasal 47 Ayat (1) Yang dimaksud dengan “analisis risiko lingkungan” adalah prosedur yang antara lain digunakan untuk mengkaji pelepasan dan peredaran produk rekayasa genetik dan pembersihan (clean up) limbah B3. Ayat (2) Huruf a Dalam ketentuan ini “pengkajian risiko” meliputi seluruh proses mulai dari identifikasi bahaya, penaksiran besarnya konsekuensi atau akibat, dan penaksiran kemungkinan munculnya dampak yang tidak diinginkan, baik terhadap keamanan dan kesehatan manusia maupun lingkungan hidup. Huruf b Dalam ketentuan ini “pengelolaan risiko” meliputi evaluasi risiko atau seleksi risiko yang memerlukan pengelolaan, identifikasi pilihan pengelolaan risiko, pemilihan tindakan untuk pengelolaan, dan pengimplementasian tindakan yang dipilih. Huruf c Yang dimaksud dengan “komunikasi risiko” adalah proses interaktif dari pertukaran informasi dan pendapat di antara individu, kelompok, dan institusi yang berkenaan dengan risiko

4 RISK ASSESSMENT Risk assessment is a step in a risk management procedure. Risk assessment is the determination of quantitative or qualitative value of risk related to a concrete situation and a recognized threat (also called hazard). Quantitative risk assessment requires calculations of two components of risk (R):, the magnitude of the potential loss (L), and the probability (p) that the loss will occur. In all types of engineering of complex systems sophisticated risk assessments are often made within Safety engineering and Reliability engineering when it concerns threats to life, environment or machine functioning. The nuclear, aerospace, oil, rail and military industries have a long history of dealing with risk assessment. Also, medical, hospital, and food industries control risks and perform risk assessments on a continual basis. Methods for assessment of risk may differ between industries and whether it pertains to general financial decisions or environmental, ecological, or public health risk assessment. Diunduh dari: 6/1/2013

5 RISK ASSESSMENT Risk assessment is a step in a risk management procedure. Risk assessment is the determination of quantitative or qualitative value of risk related to a concrete situation and a recognized threat (also called hazard). Quantitative risk assessment requires calculations of two components of risk (R):, the magnitude of the potential loss (L), and the probability (p) that the loss will occur. In all types of engineering of complex systems sophisticated risk assessments are often made within Safety engineering and Reliability engineering when it concerns threats to life, environment or machine functioning. The nuclear, aerospace, oil, rail and military industries have a long history of dealing with risk assessment. Also, medical, hospital, and food industries control risks and perform risk assessments on a continual basis. Methods for assessment of risk may differ between industries and whether it pertains to general financial decisions or environmental, ecological, or public health risk assessment. Diunduh dari: 6/1/2013 Quantitative risk assessment Quantitative Risk Analysis (QRA) is the determination of the probability and consequences of potential losses in numerical terms. The assignment of probability values to the various events in the risk model provides for a quantitative assessment of risk.events An important aspect of risk assessment is the estimation of the associated uncertainty. Therefore, the process may be completed through the use of statistical models such as probability analysis, Poisson distributions or Bayesian theory. These statistical models require the use of past data and assumptions about future trends. Much of the data may be accumulated from different sources.

6 THEORIES IN ENVIRONMENTAL RISK ASSESSMENT Diunduh dari: 6/1/2013 by Liviu – Daniel GALATCHI Assistant Professor Ovidius University, Constanta, Romania N.A.T.O. A.R.W., August 07-11, 2005, Kaunas, Lithuania

7 The ories in Environmental Risk Assessment by Liviu – Daniel GALATCHI Assistant Professor Ovidius University, Constanta, Romania N.A.T.O. A.R.W., August 07-11, 2005, Kaunas, Lithuania Diunduh dari: 6/1/2013

8 What is environmental risk assessment (ERA)? Qualitative and quantitative valuation of environmental status ERA is comprised of: 1.Human health risk assessment; 2.Ecological risk assessment. Diunduh dari: 6/1/2013 Pendekatan Sistematik untuk Pendugaan Risiko ERA should be conducted when it is determined that a management action may have consequences to either humans or the environment.

9 Diunduh dari: 6/1/2013 Pendugaan Risiko secara Sistematik AnalisisSistem Menghitung Risiko Menduga Frekuensi Menduga Konsekwensi Identifi- kasi Bahaya Penentuan Aseptabilitas Kriteria Aseptabilitas Tingkat risiko yang dapat diterima Menentukan Perbaikan Tingkat risidu-risiko yang dapat diterima Pendugaan Risiko secara Sistematik

10 Diunduh dari: 6/1/2013 Pendekatan Sistematik untuk Pendugaan Risiko Pengelolaan Risiko Karakterisasi Risiko Identifikasi Bahaya Perhitungan bahaya: Daur hidup dan batasan sistem, definisi, ekstraksi, pengolahan, transport, limbah. Evaluasi jalur lingkungan: dampak buruk emisi, konsentrasi emisi, paparan emisi, dosis emisi

11 Human health risk assessment (HHRA) Identifikasi Bahaya; dose-response assessment; exposure assessment; Karakterisasi Risiko. Meliputi: Diunduh dari: 6/1/2013

12 Ecological risk assessment (ERA) It is determined the likelihood of the occurrence/non-occurrence of adverse ecological effects as a result of exposure to stressors Diunduh dari: 6/1/2013 Diunduh dari:

13 Diunduh dari: 6/1/2013 Ecological risk assessment (ERA) Identifikasi Masalah Pendugaan Risiko Lingkungan Pendugaan Risiko EKologis Pendugaan Risiko Kesehatan Manusia Karakterisasi Risiko Analisis Formulasi masalah Identifikasi Bahaya Respon-Paparan Sumberdaya: Udara, Air, Tanah, Biota

14 What is environmental risk assessment (ERA)? Qualitative and quantitative valuation of environmental status ERA is comprised of: 1.human health risk assessment; 2.ecological risk assessment. Diunduh dari: 6/1/2013 Qualitative risk assessment Although the bulk of the effort in developing methods of risk analysis has been addressed to quantitative methods, critical aspects of risk frequently require qualitative evaluation. Qualitative risk analysis may use “expert” opinion to estimate probability (or frequency) and consequence (or impacts) often through linguistic expressions. Based on expert judgement different qualitative consequence categories can be defined in terms of for example high, medium, low, etc. The same can be done for qualitative probability categories in terms of expressions as likely, may occur, not likely, very unlikely. This subjective approach may be sufficient to assess the risk of a system, depending on the decisions to be made and available resources. Formal processes for expert- opinion elicitation have been developed to provide consistency in qualitative information gathering (e.g. Delphi technique). Concerning qualitative uncertainty estimates, one has to rely on subjective estimates of uncertainty

15 Systematic approach to risk assessment ERA should be conducted when it is determined that a management action may have consequences to either humans or the environment. Diunduh dari: 6/1/2013 Seven steps of an ERA and associated key-questions (based on Fairman et al., 1999) 1. Problem FormulationWhat needs to be assessed? 2. Hazard IdentificationWhat can go wrong? 3. Release AssessmentHow often or how likely? 4. Exposure Assessment How does the released material reach the receptor, at which intensity, for how long and/or how frequent? How likely will the receptors be exposed to the released pollution? 5. Consequence or Effect Assessment What is the effect on the receptors? 6. Risk Characterisation and Estimation What are the risks (quantitative or qualitative measure)? 7. Risk Evaluation How important is the risk to those affected, those who create it and those who control it?

16 Diunduh dari: ctivities………. 6/1/2013 Presentation of the general key tasks in environmental risk assessment (Based on Fairman et al. 1999)

17 Diunduh dari: 6/1/2013 Problem Formulation The problem formulation step is crucial in ERA. Initially the problem has to be defined and certain issues must be clear before the assessment starts: What are the risk sources we want to assess? Are these point sources (e.g. wind energy parks) or mobile sources (e.g. maritime transport, fishing fleets) and what are the characteristics of these risk sources? Are we concerned with the production, use or disposal of the hazard? What are the environmental hazards to be taken into account: mineral oil, chemicals, garbage, sewage, ballast water, tributyltin, emissions, noise etc; Which are the pathways in which the created hazard can reach the receptor and which are the receptors and end-points? Will we focus on pre-defined sensitive ecosystems (e.g. special areas of conservation under the Habitats Directive, EC Birds Directive or areas with a high value in recreational amenity or commercially exploitable biological resources) or do we cover the risks for a broader area?ecosystemsHabitats DirectiveEC Birds Directive At this stage, a generic model should be defined to describe the functions, features, characteristics and attributes of the system under investigation. Other questions that need to be handled in this first step are those related to legal and policy frameworks relevant to the risk assessment. Will we rely on regulatory standards and policy frameworks as a guide to determine "acceptable" risk and the significance of including specific end- points? Is there a legal framework that determines how we should approach the risk assessment?

18 Diunduh dari: 6/1/2013 Hazard Identification The purpose of this step is to identify all of the conceivable and relevant hazards that could possibly cause harm to the receptor of interest. The identification may involve the establishment of those agents that may cause harm and working backwards to identify how this harm could occur. Alternatively, hazard identification may arise from examining all possible outcomes of routine operation and identifying the consequences from normal operation. [4] [4] The hazards identification step is closely linked to the next step, release assessment in the sense that these steps are both risk source related while the exposure and consequence steps are risk receptor related. Often, no distinction is made between hazard identification and release assessment, and is simply denominated as "hazard identification" Fairman R., Mead C. D. and Williams W. P. (1999). Environmental Risk Assessment – Approaches, Experiences and Information Sources. Monitoring and Assessment Research centre, King’s College, London. Published by European Environment Agency – EEA Environmental issue report No 4.

19 Diunduh dari: 6/1/2013 Release Assessment The Release Assessment step involves the identification of the potential of the risk source to introduce hazardous agents into the environment. This may be descriptive or involve the quantification of the release. Release assessment attempts to give a measure of the likelihood of a release. It will include a description of the types, amounts, timings and probabilities of the release of hazards into the environment and a description of how these attributes might change as a result of various actions or events. Release assessment is also risk source related and therefore often executed together with the hazard identification step. In quantitative risk analysis (QRA), a quantitative estimation of the probability of release can be approached in two ways: The historical approach which uses direct statistical data on the system under investigation. This may be collected monitoring data or data from similar marine activities. This includes data on undesired events as well as data on recovery and control measures which mitigates the potential impacts. The approach which uses analytical and simulation techniques, breaking the system down into contributing factors and causes. Collected monitoring data or data from similar marine activities are also used to verify the modelling results. Expert judgement can be used to estimate the likelihood or probability of a release of hazards in a non-quantitative way. Based on the results of the hazard identification, the likelihood is divided in different categories in terms of terms of expressions as likely, may occur, not likely, very unlikely. [1] [1] 1. 1.Wilcox R. LT. Burrows M. CDR. Ghosh S. and Ayyub B. M. (2000). Risk-based Technology for the Safety Assessment of Marine Compressed Natural Gas Fuel Systems. International Cooperation on Marine Engineering Systems/The Society of Naval Architects and Marine Engineers. Paper presented at the 8th ICMES/SNAME New York Metropolitan Section Symposium in New York, May 22-23, 2000.

20 Diunduh dari: 6/1/2013 Exposure Assessment Exposure assessment attempts to quantify the potential exposure levels of the hazard at the receptor site. It includes a description of the intensity, frequency and duration of exposure through the various exposure media (routes of exposure) and the nature of the population exposed. Risk assessment on ecosystems has to deal with a multitude of organisms, all with varying sensitivities to chemicals and various groups have distinct exposure scenarios (e.g. free swimming species have another exposure pathway than benthonic species). The exposure assessment step requires the use of monitoring data, exposure modelling techniques and also mapping models to locate ecological sensitivity incorporating GIS techniques. [4][6]ecosystemsbenthonicsensitivityGIS [4][6] Most of the time, exposure of ecosystems to produced hazards is determined in terms of the Predicted Environmental Concentration (PEC). The PEC is calculated on both local and regional spatial scales from monitoring data where available (also called Monitored Environmental Concentration (MEC)), or by using realistic worst-case scenarios. If this information is not available, estimates are made from exposure models. The PEC is calculated for each environmental compartment using the information available on release quantities and subsequent degradation processes in the "standard" environment. Site-specific information is used when available and appropriate. The relevant compartments of the marine environment are: [6]ecosystems [6] 1. 1.Water-exposure of aquatic organisms across respiratory and other permeable surfaces; 2. 2.Sediment-exposure of sediment dwelling (benthic) organisms by ingestion of, or direct contact with, sediment particles;benthic 3. 3.Biota-exposure of higher trophic levels via the food chain (secondary poisoning), by predation on organisms that have been exposed via the water, sediment or predation on other organisms Air-exposure for marine birds and mammals by inhalation of the chemical in the air they breath (likely less significant than the other three)

21 Diunduh dari: 6/1/2013 Consequence or Effect Assessment A Consequence Assessment will examine the consequences of the release or production of the hazards, to the specified population and the quantification of the relationship between specified exposures to the hazard and the consequences of those exposures. The consequences examined in ecological systems are varied and few defined end-points exist at present. Environmental risk assessment on ecosystems is concerned with different populations and communities and the effects of substances on their mortality and fecundity. [4] [4] In ecological impact assessment, the consequences or effects can be estimated in terms of the Predicted No Effect Concentration (PNEC). Separate PNEC values need to be derived for the relevant compartments of interest: water compartment, benthic compartment (sediments) and biota (representing organisms which are eaten by avian and mammalian predators). PNEC values can be derived using ecotoxicity tests. In these tests, the estimation of the PNEC is primarily made on the basis of results from monospecies laboratory tests or, in some cases, from model ecosystem tests. The available ecotoxicity data are used to derive a No Observed Effect Concentration (NOEC) or a Lowest Observed Effect Concentration (LOEC). The test species used are selected to represent the sensitivities of different taxonomic groups in each environmental compartment. For aquatic effects assessments, ecotoxicity data are required on representatives of fish species, daphnia and algae. [4]benthicecotoxicityecosystemecotoxicity sensitivitiesecotoxicity [4] Assessment (safety) factors are applied to the toxicity value to enable extrapolation from laboratory experiments to the field, acute to chronic effects and for inter and intra species variations. The size of the assessment factor varies according to the number and type of data available and the likely duration of exposure. [4][6] [4][6] Ecotoxicological Assessment Criteria (EACs) are defined as effects benchmarks against which the results of environmental monitoring can be assessed in an attempt to identify possible areas of concern. The determination of EACs is based on the same principles as for the assessment factors. EACs are only derived when data which meet predefined quality criteria are available from at least three species. Expert judgement may also be used to assess the magnitude of the consequences in qualitative terms. Dependent on the pollution source and ecosystem characteristics, the potential consequences on the ecosystem are divided in different categories (e.g. “minor” to “catastrophic”).pollutionecosystem

22 Diunduh dari: 6/1/2013 Risk Characterisation and Estimation Risk characterisation consists of integrating the results from the release assessment, exposure assessment and the consequence assessment to produce measures of environmental risks. This may include an estimate of the numbers of measures indicating environmental damage, and the uncertainty involved in these estimates. [4] [4] In the risk characterisation as described above, PEC incorporates the results of the release and the exposure assessment step while PNEC incorporates the results of the consequence assessment step. Current risk assessment practice compares the PEC with the PNEC for the relevant ecosystem using data from representative species. Implicit in this approach is the assumption that there is a tolerable threshold of any chemical substance in the environment (via the PNEC). An element of precaution is built into the approach via the use of conservative/worse-case assumptions within exposure and effects assessments. [6]ecosystem [6] The EU practice on risk characterisation involves the calculation of a quotient – the PEC/PNEC ratio. This PEC/PNEC ratio should be calculated for all relevant endpoints. If the PEC/PNEC is less than 1, the substance of concern is considered to present no risk to the environment and there is no need for further testing or risk reduction measures. If the ratio cannot be reduced to below 1 by refinement of the ratio (by gathering of further information and further testing), risk reduction measures are necessary. [4] [4] The PEC/PNEC ratio risk characterisation method does not allow us to assess the effective risk expressed in e.g. terms of number of affected individuals or reduced population density in a specific region resulting from a particular activity. An overall estimation of risk can be defined as the multiplication of the consequence for each damage-causing event with the frequency of that event. The frequency of an event is a result of the hazard identification and release step (e.g. frequency of collisions, powered grounding, etc. within a particular area). The consequence of a damage- causing event is usually defined as casualty probabilities. This is presented in the PECs (e.g. amount of fuel oil spilled due to collisions at the receptor site), taking into account the relevant PNECs representing the thresholds below which no damage exists for the investigated species (e.g. no effect concentrations of fuel oil in the different relevant marine ecosystem compartments for seagulls). The population of the species under investigation (e.g. seagulls) present in the areas covered by each probability band is multiplied by the appropriate casualty probability producing the total number of the population predicted to be affected by each event. When combined with the frequency for each event, a risk estimate can be produced for this specific species. This process can be repeated for a number of key species in order to have an overall idea about the risks for the whole ecosystem.ecosystem Although a quantitative risk assessment approach is preferred, there may be cases where this can not be carried out (e.g. no PEC or PNEC can be properly calculated). Qualitative risk assessment can be used as an alternative. In this case, the risk characterisation shall entail a qualitative evaluation of the likelihood that an effect will occur under the expected conditions of exposure. The results of the qualitative risk characterisation can be used as a base to prioritise risk reduction measures.

23 Diunduh dari: 6/1/2013 Risk Evaluation Risk Evaluation is the examination of what the characterised risks actually means in practice. What is the significance or value of the identified hazards and estimated risks? Risk evaluation deals with the trade-off between the perceived risks and benefits. This includes acknowledgement of the public perception of the risk and the influence that this will have on the acceptability of risk and risk decisions. On its turn, the public perception of risk depends on the economic, social, legal and political context in which the affected and/or concerned population lives. [4] [4] The risk evaluation may take account of these perceived risks and benefits and incorporate them in the final risk assessment. The results from this risk evaluation may serve as an input to the risk management process. Based on the acceptable level of risk eventual choices of action are determined needed to achieve the desired level of risk. If a system has a risk value above the risk acceptance level, actions should be taken to address concerned risks and to improve the system though risk reduction measures. The three major approaches to evaluate risks are: 1. 1.Professional judgement: technical experts most knowledgeable in their fields examine the risks and make conclusions based on ‘best judgement’. Expert judgement may be used to estimate probability (step 3 and 4, see and 1.3.3) and consequence (step 5, see 1.3.5). Based on a ranking of the probability and consequences of the concerned risk, experts may defineacceptance levels Formal analysis: Cost-benefit, cost-risk-benefit and decision analysis are the most common of formal analysis techniques for alternative risk management options. In cost benefit analysis and cost-risk-benefit analysis, benefits (e.g. avoided pollution, risk) and costs (cost of pollution reduction or risk reduction measures) associated with a particular risk management option are evaluated against each other. Decision analysis is an axiomatic theory for making choices in uncertain conditions.pollution 3. 3.Bootstrapping: Bootstrapping approaches identify and continue policies that have evolved over time. It is argued that society achieves a reasonable balance between risks and benefits only through experience. The safety levels achieved with old risks provide the best guide as to how to manage new risks.

24 Human health risk assessment (HHRA) 1.hazard identification; 2.dose-response assessment; 3.exposure assessment; 4.risk characterization. Involves: Diunduh dari: 6/1/2013 Human Health Risk Human health risk assessment involves examining issues related to specific contaminants, including environmental fate and transport, and exposure assessment. In addition, the toxicity parameters of contaminants are evaluated to make sure that the latest scientific knowledge is used in evaluating potential toxicity. At sites involving remedial action, risk assessment is used to determine the nature and extent of remedial activities, such as establishing preliminary cleanup goals.

25 Ecological risk assessment (ERA) It is determined the likelihood of the occurrence/non- occurrence of adverse ecological effects as a result of exposure to stressors Diunduh dari: 6/1/2013 Ecological Risk Assessment (EcoRA) involves the assessment of the risks posed by the presence of substances released to the environment by man, in theory, on all living organisms in the variety of ecosystems which make up the environment. EcoRAs tend to focus on the risks from chemicals and Genetically Modified Organisms (GMOs), some address physical risks such as temperature rises caused by cooling water releases from industry. Ecological risk assessment is very much a developing field and has many problems which need resolving such as; 1. 1.Determining the effects at population and community level; 2. 2.Selection of end-points; 3. 3.Selection of indicative species; 4. 4.The selection of field, laboratory, mesocosm and microcosm tests; 5. 5.The incorporation of resilience and recovery factors of the ecosystem.

26 Diunduh dari: 6/1/2013

27 Hazards - Bahaya 1.chemicals toxic to humans, animals, and plants; 2.materials that are highly flammable or explosive; 3.mechanical equipment, the failure of which would endanger persons and property; 4.structural failure (e.g., dam or containment vessel); 5.natural disasters that exacerbate technological hazards; 6.ecosystem damage (e.g., eutrophication, soil erosion). Diunduh dari: 6/1/2013

28 Contoh Informasi Bayaya 1.potential release of hazardous chemicals (rate and amount); 2.accidental fires and explosions; 3.transport and fate of pollutants in the environment; 4.dilution-dispersion mechanisms and rates; 5.exposure to toxins (who, how many, how much); 6.dose-response predictions based on animal tests; 7.failure rates of mechanical equipment or structures; 8.human behavior (errors by workers, public reaction); 9.natural hazards (earthquake, tsunami, typhoon); 10.alterations in drainage patterns, water table, vegetation, microclimate. Diunduh dari: 6/1/2013

29 Uncertainties – Ketidak-pastian 1.lack of understanding of important cause-effect relationships, lack of scientific theory; 2.models that do not correspond to reality; 3.weaknesses in available data; 4.data gaps; 5.toxicological data that are extrapolated; 6.natural variation in environmental parameters; 7.necessary assumptions on which estimates are based, and the sensitivity of the resulting estimates to changes in the assumptions; 8.novelty of the project. Diunduh dari: 6/1/2013 ERA fokus pada tiga pertanyaan 1. 1.What can go wrong with the project? 2. 2.What is the range of magnitude of these adverse consequences? 3. 3.What can be done and at what cost to reduce unacceptable risk and damage?

30 The interactive nature of ERA Diunduh dari: 6/1/2013

31 Pembandingan Risiko 1.Probability of frequency of events causing one or more immediate fatalities. 2.Chance of death for an individual within a specified population in each year. 3.Number of deaths from lifetime exposure. 4.Loss of life expectancy considers the age at which death occurs. 5.Deaths per tone of product, or per facility. Diunduh dari: 6/1/2013 Tujuan melaksanakan ERA 1. 1.to learn about the risks 2. 2.to reduce the risk

32 Pendugaan Risiko secara Kuantitatif – Skenario yang mungkin 1.quantity of toxic material in the inventory is hazardous; 2.overpressure in the storage tank in combination with failure of the relief valve leading to tank rupture; 3.combination of wind speed and atmospheric stability leading to an estimated spatial and temporal distribution of toxic material concentration; 4.population distribution based on night-time occurrence. Diunduh dari: 6/1/2013

33 Komunikasi Risiko Psychologists studying risk perception find that fears are heightened beyond what the objective facts would warrant when: 1.risks are involuntary or controlled by others; 2.the consequences are dread and delayed; 3.the benefits and risks are inequitably distributed; 4.the proposed project is unfamiliar and involves complex technology; 5.basic needs such as clean air, drinking water, or food are threatened. Diunduh dari: 6/1/2013

34 Risk management: 3 main phases 1.Risk analysis and assessment: identification of hazards to people and the environment, the determination of the probability of occurrence of these hazards, and the magnitude of the events. 2.Risk limits - entails defining the acceptability of the risk, which can be classified as acceptable or in need of reduction. 3.Risk reduction: design and implementation of risk- reducing measures and controls. Diunduh dari: 6/1/2013

35 Manajemen Risiko: Tiga tahapan utama Riset Pendugaan Risiko Manajemen Risiko Lembaga Pengambil Keputusan dan Program Aksi Pengembang an pilihan Regulasi dan Non-regulasi Evaluasi konsekwensi akibat regulasi: kesehatan, ekonomi, sosial dan politik Karakterisasi risiko: deskripsi risiko, pendugaan bahaya, respon-dosis, paparan Identifikasi bahaya: Penyebab terjadinya efek buruk Pendugaan respon-dosis (Hubungan antara dosis dengan insiden pada manusia) Pendugaan paparan: Apakah paparan terjadi sekarang atau diantisipasi pada kondisi lain? Pengukuran lapangan, estimasi paparan, karakterisasi populasi Informasi metode ekstrapolasi Untuk dosis tinggi hingga rendah dan binatang ke manusia Observasi lapang dan laboratorium ttg efek kesehatan dan paparan agen-agen tertentu

36 Rencana Manajemen Bencana 1.details of the specification of equipment and machineries, plot plan, and hazardous areas classifications; 2.details of the risk assessment procedure adopted; 3.details of the on-site and off-site emergency plan; 4.details of the fire extinguishers and foams. Diunduh dari: 6/1/ Specification; 2. 2.Plot plan; 3. 3.Hazardous area classification; 4. 4.Diagrams showing all the equipment in position, process and utility valves, instruments, control system, safety valves and other safety devices; 5. 5.Storage of inflammable liquids; 6. 6.Risk assessment. Arahan Perencanaan Manajemen Bencana

37 Analisis Bahaya: Pendugaan Risiko Pabrik 1.Which materials or process streams are flammable or combustible? 2.What is their ignition temperature or what is their ignition energy requirement? 3.How fast will they burn? 4.How much heat can be generated per unit? 5.How much quantity will be available in any one area? 6.Will it explode? Diunduh dari: 6/1/2013 Scope and objectives of risk assessment of industries 1. 1.To develop a risk hazard checking system To rank the plant layout on the hazard potentials To re-modify the plant layout and identify safety measures to be undertaken within the industry, so as to minimize the on-site economic damage as well as off-site risks to the society and environment To assist the regulatory authorities, planners, and designers to investigate plant accidents and predict the possible consequences for decision-making make decisions on industrial clearance swiftly and on a more rational basis.

38 1.Identification of possible hazardous events. 2.Consequence analysis. 3.Quantitative analysis of system failure probability from their component failure or frequency assessment Diunduh dari: 6/1/2013 Pendugaan TOTAL RISIKO depends primarily upon two factors: data and organization. PROSEDUR IDENTIFIKASI BAHAYA

39 1.Simple "passive'' dispersion involves neutral buoyancy and plume rise for heat and momentum. It is used for those phases of gas dispersion dominated by atmospheric turbulence. 2.Moment jet dispersion covers high velocity release, when the released gas can be denser or lighter than air, and involves simple horizontal jet models, and complex plume path models. 3.Dense vapour cloud dispersion deals with clouds heavier than air, cold clouds, and liquid and vapour clouds. Diunduh dari: 6/1/2013 KATAGORI MODEL DISPERSI Vulnerability model or probit equations have been derived for estimating, from dose relationships, the probability of affecting a certain proportion of the exposed population. These have been based almost exclusively on animal test data. The probit equation is: Pr = At + Bt ln(Cnte) where Pr = probability function, At, Bt, and n are constants, C is the concentration of pollutant to which exposure is made (in ppm v/v), and te is the duration of exposure to the pollutant, measured in minutes. KATAGORI MODEL DISPERSI

40 Pendugaan Frequensi & Analisis Kuantitatif What is the probability that the system will fail on demand? What is the frequency of occurrence of the top event? Does a change in the system design improve or reduce the system reliability? Diunduh dari: 6/1/2013 Categorization of the risk (probability x impact) of each consequence, e.g. using a risk graph Diunduh dari: can-you-undertake-risk-analysis.html ………. 8/1/2013

41 Kejadian yang melibatkan bahan- bahan mudah terbakar (a) major fires with no danger of explosion, with hazards from prolonged high levels of thermal radiation and smoke; (b) fire threatening items of plant containing hazardous substances, with hazards from spread of fire, explosion, or release of toxic substances; (c) explosion with little or no warning, with hazards from blast wave, flying debris, and high levels of thermal radiation. Diunduh dari: 6/1/2013 Diunduh dari: ………. 6/1/2013 Another way of showing the different priorities of risks is by arranging them in the probability-impact-diagram. Mathematically spoken, the risk value is the statistically expected value of impact or damage that risk event could cause.

42 Kejadian yang melibatkan bahan-bahan toksik (a) slow or intermittent release of toxic substances, (from a leaking valve); (b) items of plant threatened by fire, with hazards from potential loss of containment; (c) rapid release of limited duration, due to plant failure (fracture of pipe, with hazards from a toxic cloud, limited in size, which may quickly disperse); (d) massive release of a toxic substance due to failure of a large storage or process vessel, an uncontrollable chemical reaction and failure of safety systems, with the exposure hazard affecting a wide area. Diunduh dari: 6/1/2013 Diunduh dari: 6/1/2013 A risk assessment for a toxic pollutant combines results of studies on the health effects of various animal and human exposures to the pollutant with results of studies that estimate the level of people's exposures at different distances from the source of the pollutant.

43 Pendugaan tentang “Kecelakaan” yang mungkin-terjadi harus menghasilkan laporan yang menyatakan: (a)the worst events considered; (b)the route of those worst events; (c)the timescale to lesser events along the way; (d)the size of lesser events if their development is halted; (e)the relative likelihood of events; (f)the consequences of each event. Diunduh dari: 6/1/2013 Diagram is adapted from UNDMTP/Disaster Assessment (1994) Diunduh dari: 8/1/2013

44 Elements to be included in an on-site emergency plan (a) proper alarm and communication mechanisms; (b) appointment of personnel, which include: (i)the site incident controller who will take care of the area around the incident when the emergency occurs and who will arrange the required rescue operations; (ii)a site main controller who will direct operations from the emergency control center after relieving the site incident controller of the responsibility for overall control; (c) details of the emergency control centers. Diunduh dari: 6/1/2013

45 Aspects to be included in an off-site emergency plan (i) Organization. (ii) Communications. (iii) Specialized emergency equipment. (iv) Specialized knowledge. (v) Voluntary organizations. (vi) Chemical information. (vii) Meteorological information. (viii) Humanitarian arrangements. (ix) Public information. (x) Assessment. Diunduh dari: 6/1/2013

46 DIUNDUH DARI: …. 6/1/2013www.clt.astate.edu/.../ ENVIRONMENTAL RISK ASSESSMENT

47 PENDAHULUAN Eventual goal of much environmental toxicology is ecological risk assessment (ERA) Developed as a management tool to aid in making environmental decisions (area of much uncertainty) Estimates risk of producing new product, releasing a pesticide or effluent into the environment, etc. May not be scientific  assessment endpoints often set by societal perceptions and values DIUNDUH DARI: …. 6/1/2013www.clt.astate.edu/.../ Key Concepts – Risk 1. 1.Risk is a function of both hazard (toxicity) and exposure 2. 2.Most chemicals have the potential to cause adverse effects at high enough doses but there is usually a dose – a low enough exposure - below which no effects will occur 3. 3.Generally, as the amount of exposure increases, so does the risk of effects 4. 4.This is why risk assessments put such a strong emphasis on estimating both the amount and duration of exposures 5. 5.Risk assessments match up what we know about hazard with how exposure is expected to occur 6. 6.Used to identify potential concerns and risks DIUNDUH DARI: eng.htm…. 8/1/2013

48 Purpose of ERA Purpose is to enable risk managers to make informed environmental decisions. Conducted to transform scientific data into meaningful information about the risk of human activities to the environment. DIUNDUH DARI: …. 6/1/2013www.clt.astate.edu/.../

49 Framework for Environmental Risk Assessment 1. 1.Previously risk assessment seen only as hazard assessment and fate 2. 2.But above not easily separated in ecological systems  when release chemical starts to change ecosystem while ecosystem is changing chemical 3. 3.Need to go beyond and predict probability of ecological effects of chemical or action Environmental risks in the sea DIUNDUH DARI: …. 6/1/2013www.clt.astate.edu/.../

50 1.Interaction among risk assessors, risk managers, and interested parties all phases of an ERA is critical to ensure that the results can be used to support a management decision. 2.Because of the diverse expertise required (especially in complex ecological risk assessments), risk assessors and risk managers frequently work in multidisciplinary teams. DIUNDUH DARI: …. 6/1/2013www.clt.astate.edu/.../ Framework for Environmental Risk Assessment Environmental Risk Assessment Framework DIUNDUH DARI: eng.htm…. 8/1/2013

51 Schematic of Framework ERA includes three primary phases: 1. Problem formulation 2. Analysis 3. Risk characterizati on DIUNDUH DARI: …. 6/1/2013www.clt.astate.edu/.../

52 Outline of Phases of an ERA 1.Problem formulation – Beginning of dialogue between risk managers and risk assessors. – Selection of assessment endpoints (what is important?) – Risk assessors evaluate goals – Prepare the conceptual model – Develop an analysis plan. 2.Analysis phase – Assessors evaluate exposure to stressors and the relationship between stressor levels and ecological effects. 3.Risk characterization, ⁻ assessors estimate risk through integration of exposure and stressor-response profiles, ⁻ describe risk by discussing lines of evidence and determining ecological adversity, and prepare a report. DIUNDUH DARI: …. 6/1/2013www.clt.astate.edu/.../

53 Problem formulation 1.Start of iterative process of defining the question under consideration 2.Directly affects the scientific validity and policy-making usefulness of the ERA 3.Composed of several six subunits DIUNDUH DARI: …. 6/1/2013www.clt.astate.edu/.../

54 1. Discussion between risk assessor and risk manager – Sets boundaries created by societal goals and scientific reality (data) – Consolidates ambiguous goals Protection of endangered species Protection of fishery Preserve structure and function of ecosystem DIUNDUH DARI: …. 6/1/2013www.clt.astate.edu/.../

55 2. Stressor characteristics? Can be biological, physical, chemical Characterized by – intensity (conc. or dose) – duration – frequency – timing – scale Temporal aspects Spatial aspect DIUNDUH DARI: …. 6/1/2013www.clt.astate.edu/.../

56 3. Ecosystems Potentially at Risk? Difficult to address  transport often difficult to predict Need to look at – Abiotic-biotic factors – History – Size – Geographic relationships DIUNDUH DARI: …. 6/1/2013www.clt.astate.edu/.../ 4. Efek-efek ekologis? Includes any impact upon any level of ecosystem Derived from hazard assessment (acute/chronic toxiciy) and consideration of: – – Biotransformations – – Biodegradation – – Reproductive effects – – Predator-prey interactions – – Production – – Community biomass – – Anything which has a direct role in the functioning of the ecosystem

57 4. Efek-efek ekologis? Includes any impact upon any level of ecosystem Derived from hazard assessment (acute/chronic toxiciy) and consideration of: – Biotransformations – Biodegradation – Reproductive effects – Predator-prey interactions – Production – Community biomass – Anything which has a direct role in the functioning of the ecosystem DIUNDUH DARI: …. 6/1/2013www.clt.astate.edu/.../

58 5. Endpoint selection Most critical aspect of problem formulation  sets stage for remainder of process Two types of endpoints – Assessment endpoints Set by ecological relevance, policy goals/societal values (i.e. protect ecosystem structure/function) Often can only infer from measurement endpoints – Measurement endpoints Measurable factors that respond to stressors and describe characteristics of ecosystem important to assessment endpoints Design and selection based on relevance, practicality, etc DIUNDUH DARI: …. 6/1/2013www.clt.astate.edu/.../ 6. Model Konseptual Framework into which data are placed Defines how data will be interpreted (what is likely to be affected: – – Migratory birds? – – Temporary pond amphibians? – – Etc Note: all above subject to revision based on collected information from data acquisition, verification, monitoring (DVM)

59 Analysis 1.Comes into play as problem formulation is completed 2.Most important part  characterization of ecosystem(s) of concern 3.Composed of five subunits DIUNDUH DARI: …. 6/1/2013www.clt.astate.edu/.../

60 1. Ecosystem Characterization Often difficult to perform because – Ecosystem no longer there? – Boundaries? – Climate changes? – Biotic interactions? DIUNDUH DARI: …. 6/1/2013www.clt.astate.edu/.../

61 2. Stressor characteristics and evaluation of relevant effects Chemical properties? Toxicity? Usually evaluate from published data May do own tests but expensive  only do if absolutely necessary DIUNDUH DARI: …. 6/1/2013www.clt.astate.edu/.../

62 3. Analisis Paparan Determine environmental concentration – Difficult  end of pipe  biotransformatio n  media heterogeneity  now how much toxic stuff is there? – Non-point sources can be even more difficult Where to measure? When to measure? DIUNDUH DARI: …. 6/1/2013www.clt.astate.edu/.../

63 4. Ecological response analysis Most difficult stage of ERA because as test system becomes more environmentally realistic the ability to accurately predict effects decreases Can use – Toxicity data – Microcosms – Field data/observations – Etc. DIUNDUH DARI: …. 6/1/2013www.clt.astate.edu/.../

64 5. Stressor/response analysis Analogous to dose/response but using single species toxicity to extrapolate to population/community level responses Have to take other (natural) stressors into account DIUNDUH DARI: …. 6/1/2013www.clt.astate.edu/.../ Dose Response Analysis response-analysis

65 KARAKTERISASI RISIKO Final stage of an ERA Combines ecological effect and environmental concentration to provide likelihood of effects given distribution of stressor within ecosystem Composed of two parts: DIUNDUH DARI: …. 6/1/2013www.clt.astate.edu/.../

66 1. ESTIMASI RISIKO A.Integration 1)Integrate exposure with toxicity 2)Use quotient method of estimating environmental risk B.Uncertainty analysis – how much confidence (certainty) in data/information 1)Can have formal mathematical analysis or informal “best guess” analysis DIUNDUH DARI: …. 6/1/2013www.clt.astate.edu/.../ 2. DESKRIPSI RISIKO Ecological risk summary – – “what are the potential effects and do I believe them? Interpretation of ecological significance – – “how big a problem is this really going to be”

67 Quotient Method Quotient = Expected environmental concentration Concentration producing an unacceptable environmental effect QuotientRisk >1Potential of high risk ~1Potential risk << 1Low risk DIUNDUH DARI: …. 6/1/2013www.clt.astate.edu/.../

68 Discussion between Risk Assessor and Risk Manager 1.Report from risk assessor to risk manager 2.Risk manager may take information and perform a risk/benefit analysis DIUNDUH DARI: …. 6/1/2013www.clt.astate.edu/.../

69 Discussion between Risk Assessor and Risk Manager 1.Report from risk assessor to risk manager 2.Risk manager may take information and perform a risk/benefit analysis  is the economic benefit worth the environmental cost? 3.Report may generate multiple vituperative displays of acrimony among interested parties DIUNDUH DARI: …. 6/1/2013www.clt.astate.edu/.../

70 MANAJEMEN RISIKO 1.Manage risk taking environmental, social, economic effects into account 2.Management usually implemented in the form of policy and legislation DIUNDUH DARI: …. 6/1/2013www.clt.astate.edu/.../

71 Monitor Results 1.Usually need to implement an on-going monitoring plan to determine if management objectives are being met 2.Often not performed as extensively as necessary until a problem arises DIUNDUH DARI: …. 6/1/2013www.clt.astate.edu/.../

72 Diunduh dari: 6/1/2013www.ess.co.at/TEACHING/FTP/GEO12.ppt RISK ASSESSMENT AND MANAGEMENT

73 RISIKO ITU APA ?  the probability   the probability of incurring a loss or injury   the probability of incurring a loss or injury

74 TIPE-TIPE RISIKO voluntary or involuntary high-probability, low-consequence low-probability, high-consequence individual or societal environmental or technological voluntary or involuntary high-probability, low-consequence low-probability, high-consequence individual or societal environmental or technological Inactive (ignore it) Reactive (abatement) Interactive (management) Proactive (planning) Inactive (ignore it) Reactive (abatement) Interactive (management) Proactive (planning) TIPE-TIPE PENGELOLAAN RISIKO

75 1.Risk assessment and planning: identify, forecast, analyse, plan 2. Operational risk abatement: detect, diagnose, correct 1.Risk assessment and planning: identify, forecast, analyse, plan 2. Operational risk abatement: detect, diagnose, correct TIPE-TIPE MANAJEMEN RISIKO A Gaming approach: probability of winning, amount to win, probability of losing, amount to lose. A Gaming approach: probability of winning, amount to win, probability of losing, amount to lose. MENGESTIMASI RISIKO

76 Expected value:  probability of loss or damage  magnitude of the loss V exp = p(D) * V(D) Expected value:  probability of loss or damage  magnitude of the loss V exp = p(D) * V(D) MENGESTIMASI RISIKO Some problems: risk is about the unexpected: this means large inherent uncertainties low probability means little data insurance can be expensive, consider the opportunity costs Some problems: risk is about the unexpected: this means large inherent uncertainties low probability means little data insurance can be expensive, consider the opportunity costs MENGESTIMASI RISIKO

77 floods and droughts hurricanes, typhoons earthquakes, tsunamis mudslides, avalanches forest fires toxic fumes (Cameroon) climate change, sea level rise floods and droughts hurricanes, typhoons earthquakes, tsunamis mudslides, avalanches forest fires toxic fumes (Cameroon) climate change, sea level rise RISIKO LINGKUNGAN Flood Risk Assessment indicators, methods and datasets Diunduh dari: ….. 8/1/2013

78 fires and explosions toxic chemicals release - from process plants - from transportation accidents oil spills nuclear accidents fires and explosions toxic chemicals release - from process plants - from transportation accidents oil spills nuclear accidents RISIKO TEKNOLOGIS 1. 1.dioxin release (Seveso, 1976) 2. 2.gas explosion (Mexico, 1984) 3. 3.methylisocyanate (Bhopal, 1984) 4. 4.toxic spill (River Rhine, 1986) 5. 5.Chernobyl (reactor meltdown) 6. 6.Amocco Cadiz, Exxon Valdez (Oils spills) 1. 1.dioxin release (Seveso, 1976) 2. 2.gas explosion (Mexico, 1984) 3. 3.methylisocyanate (Bhopal, 1984) 4. 4.toxic spill (River Rhine, 1986) 5. 5.Chernobyl (reactor meltdown) 6. 6.Amocco Cadiz, Exxon Valdez (Oils spills) RISIKO TEKNOLOGIS

79 Leadership and Administration Management and Training Job Analysis and Procedures Emergency Preparedness Accident/Incident Analysis Employee Training Safety and Protective Equipment Leadership and Administration Management and Training Job Analysis and Procedures Emergency Preparedness Accident/Incident Analysis Employee Training Safety and Protective Equipment KEAMANAN INDUSTRI FASILITAS TANGGAP-DARURAT Plant Emergency Organization Plant Risk Evaluation Area Risk Evaluation Notification Procedures, Communication Emergency Equipment and Facilities Procedure for return to normal operations Plant Emergency Organization Plant Risk Evaluation Area Risk Evaluation Notification Procedures, Communication Emergency Equipment and Facilities Procedure for return to normal operations

80 FASILITAS TANGGAP-DARURAT Plant Emergency Organization Plant Risk Evaluation Area Risk Evaluation Notification Procedures, Communication Emergency Equipment and Facilities Procedure for return to normal operations Plant Emergency Organization Plant Risk Evaluation Area Risk Evaluation Notification Procedures, Communication Emergency Equipment and Facilities Procedure for return to normal operations FASILITAS TANGGAP-DARURAT Plant Risk Evaluation quantities, locations, and storage conditions of hazardous materials properties of materials (MSD sheets) location of isolation valves fire fighting procedures special handling requirements Plant Risk Evaluation quantities, locations, and storage conditions of hazardous materials properties of materials (MSD sheets) location of isolation valves fire fighting procedures special handling requirements

81 Plant risk evaluation Site data base includes basic administrative, technical, regulatory and safety relevant information: hazardous chemicals safety response plans and equipment Site data base includes basic administrative, technical, regulatory and safety relevant information: hazardous chemicals safety response plans and equipment Plant risk evaluation Hazardous chemicals data base includes substance identification data (names, synonyms, CAS, UN number), physical, chemical, and toxicological properties, associates production processes and waste streams.

82 Facility Emergency Response Plant Emergency Organization Plant Risk Evaluation Area Risk Evaluation Notification Procedures, Communication Emergency Equipment and Facilities Procedure for return to normal operations FASILITAS TANGGAP-DARURAT Area Risk Evaluation hazardous materials at nearby plants nearby residences, population centers including schools, hospitals, nursing homes (evacuation procedures) contacts at other sites (names, phone) notification procedures Area Risk Evaluation hazardous materials at nearby plants nearby residences, population centers including schools, hospitals, nursing homes (evacuation procedures) contacts at other sites (names, phone) notification procedures

83 a spatial approach: evaluates the vulnerability of a geographical area, its population and environment to technological risks (e.g., hazardous materials release from process plants or transportation accidents) a spatial approach: evaluates the vulnerability of a geographical area, its population and environment to technological risks (e.g., hazardous materials release from process plants or transportation accidents) ANALISIS BAHAYA Has a hazards analysis been completed for this area ? When was it last updated ? Does the analysis include the location, type, and amount of hazardous materials manufactured, processed, stored, disposed within the area ? Has a hazards analysis been completed for this area ? When was it last updated ? Does the analysis include the location, type, and amount of hazardous materials manufactured, processed, stored, disposed within the area ? ANALISIS BAHAYA: CHECKLIST

84 Does it include transportation routes of hazardous materials ? Have areas of public health concern be identified ? Have sensitive environmental areas been identified ? Does it include transportation routes of hazardous materials ? Have areas of public health concern be identified ? Have sensitive environmental areas been identified ? ANALISIS BAHAYA: CHECKLIST Have historical data on accidents been collected and analyzed ? Have levels of vulnerability been identified for different areas ? Are environmentally sensitive areas and population centers included in plant and transportation risk assessment ? Have historical data on accidents been collected and analyzed ? Have levels of vulnerability been identified for different areas ? Are environmentally sensitive areas and population centers included in plant and transportation risk assessment ? ANALISIS BAHAYA: CHECKLIST

85 simulation of atmospheric dispersion of toxic substances from transportation or process plant accidents. uses local geographical, land use, and and population data to estimate exposure and simulate evacuation plans. simulation of atmospheric dispersion of toxic substances from transportation or process plant accidents. uses local geographical, land use, and and population data to estimate exposure and simulate evacuation plans. CONTOH APLIKASI simulation of aquatic spills of toxics. uses chemical properties together with hydrological data, estimates the concentration of the chemical along the river and over time. Can use an embedded expert system to estimate environmental damage. simulation of aquatic spills of toxics. uses chemical properties together with hydrological data, estimates the concentration of the chemical along the river and over time. Can use an embedded expert system to estimate environmental damage. CONTOH APLIKASI

86 Risk Planning: Regulatory frameworks safety audits, regular inspections chemicals registry waste management transportation safety emergency planning zoning safety audits, regular inspections chemicals registry waste management transportation safety emergency planning zoning Disaster Preparedness - conducts hazard vulnerability studies, provides Disaster Planning and preparedness for response and recovery. Diunduh dari: ….. 8/1/2013

87 Risk contours around a plant location: events/year unacceptable individual risk events/year negligible risk Risk contours around a plant location: events/year unacceptable individual risk events/year negligible risk PENDUGAAN RISIKO

88 Risk levels (the Dutch perspective) events/year: voluntarily accepted in daily life events/year: maximum tolerable total involuntary risk events/year: unacceptable involuntary from a single source events/year: negligible risk Risk levels (the Dutch perspective) events/year: voluntarily accepted in daily life events/year: maximum tolerable total involuntary risk events/year: unacceptable involuntary from a single source events/year: negligible risk PENDUGAAN RISIKO Assigning a Risk Level Risk assessment is typically done through the use of simple and intuitive risk maps such as the one illustrated below. These maps can be used to analyze, by risk, the likelihood of occurrence and the impact it may have on the business objectives. The plotting of each risk according to these two attributes provides management with a risk rating (Red, Yellow, Green). The placement of the risk in either one of these zones will dictate or guide management's action plans. Diunduh dari: ….. 8/1/2013

89 Hazard identification Accident frequency and consequence estimation Risk calculation Risk reduction and acceptability Hazard identification Accident frequency and consequence estimation Risk calculation Risk reduction and acceptability PROSEDUR ANALISIS RISIKO Hazard Identification (HAZID) Process/system checklist Safety review Preliminary Hazard Analysis Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA) Hazard and Operability Analysis (HAZOP) Systematic Identification of Release Points Hazard Identification (HAZID) Process/system checklist Safety review Preliminary Hazard Analysis Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA) Hazard and Operability Analysis (HAZOP) Systematic Identification of Release Points PROSEDUR ANALISIS RISIKO

90 Frequency and Consequence Estimation: Fault tree Event tree Cause Consequence Diagram Generic Reliability Database Frequency and Consequence Estimation: Fault tree Event tree Cause Consequence Diagram Generic Reliability Database PROSEDUR ANALISIS RISIKO Diunduh dari: ml ….. 8/1/2013 Diagram of the pathways and reactions leading to the formation of acid rain in our atmosphere.

91 PROSEDUR ANALISIS RISIKO Fault tree analysis: run-away reaction due to cooling failure

92 Failure of: 1.heating system 2.sensor 3.shutdown system 4.cooling system 5.safety valve Failure of: 1.heating system 2.sensor 3.shutdown system 4.cooling system 5.safety valve PROSEDUR ANALISIS RISIKO

93 Event tree: traces possible events from loss of cooling to: Safe shutdown; Discharge from safety valve ; Explosion. PROSEDUR ANALISIS RISIKO

94 Every event A has possible outcome C (with probability: p) and B (1-p) depending on failure probability Every event A has possible outcome C (with probability: p) and B (1-p) depending on failure probability PROSEDUR ANALISIS RISIKO

95 Consequences: discharge (flow, evaporation) fire: jet, pool/tank, flash, fireball explosion and release: – unconfined vapor cloud (UVCE) – boiling liquid expanding vapor explosion (BLEVE) – physical explosion – runaway reaction explosion – dust gas/dust mixture explosion Consequences: discharge (flow, evaporation) fire: jet, pool/tank, flash, fireball explosion and release: – unconfined vapor cloud (UVCE) – boiling liquid expanding vapor explosion (BLEVE) – physical explosion – runaway reaction explosion – dust gas/dust mixture explosion PROSEDUR ANALISIS RISIKO

96 Diunduh dari: 6/1/2013 HUMAN HEALTH RISK ASSESSMENT

97 PENDUGAAN RISIKO LINGKUNGAN Dr. Atallah Rabi Department of Public Health Faculty of Medicine Jordan University of Science & Technology   Define the elements of RA   Understand the types of information needed for each element of RA   Describe how Env. Hazards can be identified   Describe Dose – Response association   Describe direct & indirect approaches of EA   Describe potential errors in Env, Sampling

98 BASIC PRINCIPLE OF HUMAN HEALTH RISK ASSESSMENT Risk is a Function of Exposure and Toxicity. The Toxicity of a Chemical and the Potential for Exposure to that Chemical are Equal Partners in Risk Assessment. Examples: A substance may be very Toxic to humans, but without Exposure to that substance, there is little if any Risk (e.g., Arsenic kept in a glass jar). Also, one may be Exposed to large amounts of a substance, but if the substance has a low Toxicity, there is minimal Risk (e.g., Water in a swimming pool). The process of evaluating possible effects, on people, as a result of exposure to environmental hazards The study of the relationship between environmental hazards and the health of the exposed population PENDUGAAN RISIKO

99 1.Anticipate the Potential for Risk 2.Recognize and Identify the Hazard 3.Evaluate the Hazard 4.Recommend Ways to Control and Manage the Risk to Acceptable Levels UNSUR-UNSUR PENDUGAAN RISIKO BASIC PRINCIPLE OF HUMAN HEALTH RISK ASSESSMENT Risk is a Function of Exposure and Toxicity. The Toxicity of a Chemical and the Potential for Exposure to that Chemical are Equal Partners in Risk Assessment. Examples: A substance may be very Toxic to humans, but without Exposure to that substance, there is little if any Risk (e.g., Arsenic kept in a glass jar). Also, one may be Exposed to large amounts of a substance, but if the substance has a low Toxicity, there is minimal Risk (e.g., Water in a swimming pool).

100 Risk assessments are based on a number of assumptions: Assumption 1: Humans can manage the environment by deciding how much damage the earth and humans can absorb without causing harm. Scientists call this the "assimilative capacity" when talking about the earth or the "threshold level" or "no effect level" when talking about the human body. According to this assumption, scientists can reliably determine how much of any harmful chemical the earth or human body can safely assimilate or absorb without causing harm. Assumption 2: Once a system's "assimilative capacity" has been determined, then we can and will see to it that no greater exposure is permitted to occur. We will set limits (regulations) river by river, factory by factory, chemical by chemical, neighborhood by neighborhood. Assumption 3: We already know which practices and substances are harmful and which are not; or, in the case of practices and substances that we never suspected of being harmful, we will be warned of their possible dangers by traumatic but sub lethal shocks that alert us to the danger before it is too late.

101 HAKEKAT PENDUGAAN RISIKO 1.A Risk Assessment Compares the Predicted Human Exposure vs. the Established Exposure Limit for a Substance. 2.The Lower the Exposure in Comparison to its Exposure Limit, the Lower the Associated Risk from the Substance. UNSUR-UNSUR PENDUGAAN RISIKO v v Anticipation v v Recognition v v Evaluation Effect/Dose = Dose-Response Dose = Exposure Control is NOT an element

102 PENDUGAAN PAPARAN Three Different Areas of Potential Human Exposure to a New Substance Must be Evaluated: 1. Potential for Inhalation of Vapors 2.Potential for Absorption thru Skin 3.Potential Ingestion of the Substance either Intentionally or by Accident. Metode Langsung – – Personal monitoring – – Biological monitoring Metode tidak-langsung – – Environmental monitoring – – Questionnaires – – Models

103 Direct measurement Respiratory System exposure: – Personal Air Monitoring Devises provide direct measurement of concentrations of air contaminants Direct measurement of Digestive system exposure: – Water, food and soil samples Direct measurement of Skin Exposure: – Using skin batches – Determining the effectiveness of gloves in protecting the skin PEMANTAUAN PERSONAL 1. 1.Area sampling and measurement of concentration 2. 2.Personal air sampling to determine dose 3. 3.Blood levels to determine dose 4. 4.A marker effect such as free erythrocyte protoporphyrine (FEP) in blood 5. 5.BM measures induced variations in absorption, metabolism, and response to En Agents A biological marker of effect must be a measurable, biochemical, physiological or other alteration within organism that has the potential to cause disease. PEMANTAUAN BIOLOGIS

104 Useful markers of exposures Substance Carbon monoxide Lead Pentachloropenol (PCP) Alcoholic beverages Volatile organics (VOCs) Biological marker COHb in blood Pb in blood PCP in urine Ethanol in exhaled air VOCs in exhaled air

105 Perhitungan asupan harian kronis CDI = C m x I m x EF x ED ———————— BW x AT where: CDI =chronic daily intake (mg/kg/day) C m =concentration in affected media (e.g., mg/L) I m =intake of affected media (e.g., L/day) EF =exposure frequency, days/year ED =exposure duration, years BW =body weight, kg AT =averaging time, days Menghitung Asupan dnegan INHILASI EFI = (C X IR X EF)/BW EFI = Estimated dose through inhalation (mg/kg/day) C = Concentration in air (mg/m 3 ) IR = Inhalation Rate (m 3 /day) EF = Exposure factor (frequency of exposure over a life time) BW = Body weight (Kg)

106 FAKTOR-FAKTOR YANG MEMPENGARUHI PAPARAN KULIT 1.Surface area exposed 2.Part of body exposed 3.Length of contact 4.Concentration of chemical on skin 5.chemical permeability to skin 6.Type of material through which chemical comes with skin (water, soil, or oil). 7.Skin condition when in contact with chemical Calculating Intake via Ingestion and Skin Absorption Ingestion EDI = (C x IgR x EF) / BW Skin absorp. (H2O) EDI = (C x P x SA xET x EF) / BW Skin absorp. (soil) EDI = (C x A x BF x EF) / BW C = concentrationIgR = Ingestion rate (lit/day) P = Permeability factorSA = Surface area exposed ET= Exposure timeEF = Exposure factor BW = body weight (kg)A = Total soil adhered BF = Bioavailability Factor (% of chemical in soil actually free to move out of soil and through skin).

107 Penggunaan Model Dosis-Respons dalam pendugaan Risiko Karsinogenik A: Dose-response curve for nonthreshold model; B: calculating the slope of the dose-response curve; C: dose estimate determines the risk estimate; D: “acceptable” response determines the “safe” dose. AC BD Dose, mg/kg/day Response Response Response Response Slope is rise/run... with units 1/(mg/kg/day) risk estimate dose estimate “acceptable”response “safe” dose

108 A: Dose-response curve for threshold model; B: using NOAEL to determine the “safe” dose; C: actual dose is compared with the safe dose (acceptable); D: actual dose is compared with the safe dose (unacceptable). A B C D Dose, mg/kg/day Response Response Response Response Modifying factors are applied to the NOAEL to determine the “safe” dose. NOA EL “Safe” dose 8-hr TWA > PEL “Safe” dose actual dose Penggunaan Model Dosis-Respons dalam pendugaan Risiko Non-Karsinogenik

109 Improved Exposure Assessment Shrinks Error Bands A: Dose and risk estimates are conservative; B: shrinking the error bands around the exposure estimate reduces the risk estimate. Response newestimate Response high mean mean high estimate mean Dose, mg/kg/day AB

110 RC synthesizes the 3 components of RA 1.Hazard Identification 2.Dose – Response Assessment 3.Exposure Assessment It estimates the incidence and severity of potential adverse effects. KARAKTERISASI RISIKO 1. 1.Exposure = pollutant conc./exposure duration 2. 2.Dose = Exposure X dose factors (absorption rate, inhalation rate), body weight or surface area 3. 3.Lifetime individual risk = dose X RC factor (noncarcinogenic threshold e.g. NOEL or severity e.g. NOAEL with uncertainty factors Risk to exposed population = Individual risk X # of exposed population (consider age, susceptibility..etc) KARAKTERISASI RISIKO KESEHATAN

111 EXPOSURE EQUATION Total exposure (estimated directly or indirectly) Duration of exposure (depends on health effects) – For carcinogenic effects: Total hrs or days of exp over lifetime (exp every day would be dys/lifetime or 70 yrs) – For non-carcinogenic effects: Short term of exp with high concentration Chronic exp. Concentration is low and constant over life time Exposure period for children: – 3 Exposure periods (sig difference in body wt, IR & EF): 0 – 6 months 6 months – 5 years 5 – 12 years DOSE EQUATION Dosimetry factors Dose (mg/kg/day over a life time) include exposure from all media – – Air – – Water – – Food – – Soil – – Skin contact

112 Efek Kesehatan Akibat Paparan Lingkungan 1.Premature death of many individuals 2.Premature death of any individual 3.Severe acute illness or major disability 4.Chronic debilitating disease 5.Minor disability 6.Discomfort 7.Behavioral changes 8.Temporary emotional effects 9.Minor physiological change Key Concepts - Toxicity (hazard) Measures of toxicity are a function of two factors: 1. 1.Dose (how much) 2. 2.Duration (how long) The shorter the exposure, the greater the dose needed to get an effect Results of toxicity tests expressed as a concentration and exposure period (eg. 48h LC50) Also related to a particular exposure media (eg seawater, sediment, etc). Diunduh dari:

113 Tolerable DI of selected chemicals On-carcinogen Copper Endrin Lead Mercury: Methyl Hg Total Hg Tin Tolerable daily intake (DI) 0.05 – 0.5 mg/kg/day 1.0  g/kg/day Adults 7.14  g/kg/day Infants 3.57  g/kg/day 0.47  g/kg/day 0.71  g/kg/day 2 mg/kg/day EXPOSURE LIMITS IN RISK ASSESSMENT Toxicity Testing is Done on a Substance in Order to Determine the Hazard which the Substance may Present to Humans. Based on its Toxicity Profile, Exposure Limits are Established for the Substance.

114 Selected Standard Default Exposure Factors LandExposure Daily IntakeExposureExposureBody UsePathwayRateFrequencyDuration Weight Residentialingestion of 2 L350 days/year30 years70 kg portable water ingestion of soil200 mg (child)350 days/year6 years15 kg (child) and dust100 mg (adult)24 years70 kg (adult) inhalation of 20 m 3 (total)350 days/year30 years70 kg contaminants 15 m 3 (indoor) Industrialingestion of 1 L250 days/year25 years70 kg potable water ingestion of soil50 mg250 days/year25 years70 kg and dust inhalation of200 m 3 /workday250 days/year25 years70 kg contaminants Source: U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA): Risk Assessment Guidance for Superfund, Vol. I, Supplemental Guidance, “Standard Default Exposure Factors” (Pub –03). Washington, DC: EPA, 1991.

115 Use of an exp. Study using inappropriate route of exposure Poor specification of Exp. In experimental studies Extrapolation high dose to low-dose situations Difference in age & life style between experiment and risk groups Exposure to multiple hazards in epidemiological studies Potential confounding factors SUMBER KESALAHAN DALAM PENDUGAAN RISIKO Limitations of Risk Assessment and Risk- Benefit Analysis Risk assessment has many built-in uncertainties and limitations Risk assessment depends on toxicology assessment that have scientific and economic limitations Each additional step in risk assessment and related risk-benefit analysis also has uncertainties and economic limitations

116 PERTANYAAN KUNCI DALAM PENDUGAAN RISIKO How reliable are risk assessment data and models? Who profits from allowing certain levels of harmful chemicals into the environment, and who suffers? Who decides this? Should estimates emphasize short-term risks, or should more weight be put on long term risks? Who should make this decision? Should the primary goal of risk analysis be to determine how much risk is acceptable or to figure out how to do the least damage? Who should do a particular risk-benefit analysis or risk assessment, and who should review the results? A government agency? Independent scientists? The public?

117 1.Some see risk analysis as a useful and much-needed tool such as a method in discovering cancer deaths per year from pollutants. 2.Critics argue that the emphasis should shift from determining acceptable risk levels to trying to reduce the risks as much as possible 3.Those critics also accuse industries of favoring risk analysis because so little is known about health risks from pollutants and because the data that do exist are controversial 4.Result is that risk assessment and risk-benefit analysis can be made to support almost any conclusion. KONTROVERSI ANALISIS RISIKO

118 Calculation of Risk-Based Water Concentration of Benzene TR =SF O x C x IRW x EF x ED BW x AT C =TR x BW x AT ————————— SF O x IR W x EF x ED C =10 -5 x 70 kg x 25,550 days ————————————— mg/kg/day x 2 L/day x 350 days/year x 30 years =0.03 mg/L where TR =target excess individual lifetime cancer risk, unitless, SF O =oral cancer slope factor, mg/kg/day C =concentration, mg/L IRW =daily water ingestion rate, L/day EF =exposure frequency, 350 days/year ED =exposure duration, 30 years BW =body weight, 70 kg AT =averaging time of 70 years, expressed as 25,550 days

119 Basic Contents of RA Process Any acceptable risk assessment process must contain the following elements: 1.The risk assessment must be concerned with the health problems that are experienced by the community. A risk assessment for cancer because that is what the experts know how to do is not acceptable when miscarriages are the problem. 2.The risk assessment must take into account exposure to multiple chemicals, which is the real-life situation. 3.The risk assessment must take into account the chemicals that the community is exposed to in food, air, water, soil, and on the job. The risk assessments must be additive at the very least. 4.The risk assessment must take into account the most susceptible parts of the community: the pregnant woman, the babies and children, the elderly, the already sick.

120 Once an assessment of risk is made, decision must be made about what to do about the risk. Risk management includes the administrative, political, and economic actions taken to decide whether and how to reduce a particular societal risk to a certain level and at what cost. BAGAIMANA MENGELOLA RISIKO ? KETERLIBATAN PENGELOLAAN RISIKO 1. 1.Which of the vast number of risks facing society should be evaluated and managed and in what order or priority with the limited funds available 2. 2.How reliable the risk-benefit analysis or risk assessment performed for each risk is 3. 3.Which of the vast number of risks facing society should be evaluated and managed and in what order or priority with the limited funds available

121 Manajemen Risiko 4. How reliable the risk-benefit analysis or risk assessment performed for each risk is 5. How much risk is acceptable 6. How much money it will take to reduce each risk to an acceptable level 7. How much each risk will be reduced if available funds are limited 8. How the risk management plan will be communicated to the public, monitored, and enforced Risk Mitigation 1. 1.Measure(s) which can be used to limit exposure will help decrease risk 2. 2.No or limited exposure, no or limited potential for effects 3. 3.Conditions/restrictions for registrations 1. 1.Application rates 2. 2.Frequency of application 3. 3.Timing of application 4. 4.Method of application 5. 5.PPE 6. 6.Type of Product Registration (eg: Restricted) Diunduh dari:

122 Bgm kita menerima Risiko? The public generally sees a technology or a product as being riskier than experts do when: 1.It is new or complex rather than familiar 2.It is perceived as being mostly involuntary 3.It is viewed as unnecessary rather than as beneficial or necessary 4.The people affected are not involved in the decision-making process from start to finish 5.Its use does not involve a sincere search for and evaluation of alternatives 6.Usually, our perceptions of risk and our responses to perceived risks often have little to do with how risky Most people do poorly in assessing relative risks from the hazards that surround us and society. 7.However, the most important good news each year is that about 99.1% of the people on the earth the experts say something is.

123 Bgm kita menerima Risiko? 8.Better education and communication about the nature of risks will help bring the public ’ s perceptions of various risks closer to those of professional risk evaluators 9.However, such education will not eliminate the emotional, cultural, and ethical factors that decision makers must take into account in determining the acceptability of a particular risk and in evaluating the possible alternatives.

124 HASIL-HASIL PENELITIAN METODE ERA

125 . Environmental risk assessment for pesticides: A tool for decision making Antonio Finizio, Sara Villa Environmental Impact Assessment Review. Volume 22, Issue 3, May 2002, Pages 235–248Volume 22, Issue 3 Pesticides are widely used to protect crops and to prevent disease. However, they can also be the cause of environmental pollution. Today, ecological policy and management decision makers in many countries (i.e. EU) require sound scientific information on the environmental risk associated with pesticides in order to base and justify their decisions. Consequently, there is a need to develop predictive tools to evaluate all potential risks of environmental damage that might be caused by the use of plant protection products. This paper analyses and discusses the risk assessment approach applied in the field of pesticides. The link between environmental policy, risk assessment and risk management will also be highlighted. Diunduh dari: 6/1/2013

126 . Environmental risk assessment for pesticides: A tool for decision making Antonio Finizio, Sara Villa Environmental Impact Assessment Review. Volume 22, Issue 3, May 2002, Pages 235–248Volume 22, Issue 3 Relationship between risk assessment and risk management (modified from McDonald and Vandenberg, 1998).McDonald and Vandenberg, 1998 Diunduh dari: 6/1/2013 Manajemen Risiko Pendugaan Risiko

127 . Environmental risk assessment for pesticides: A tool for decision making Antonio Finizio, Sara Villa Environmental Impact Assessment Review. Volume 22, Issue 3, May 2002, Pages 235–248Volume 22, Issue 3 A risk assessment framework (from US EPA, 1996).US EPA, 1996 Diunduh dari: 6/1/2013 Perencanaan (Dialog asesor risiko dengan Manajer risiko) Pendugaan Risiko Ekologis Formulasi Masalah Karakterisasi Risiko Mengkomunikasikan hasil kepada Manajer Risiko Manajemen Risiko Karakterisasi Efek Ekologis Karakterisasi Paparan

128 . Environmental risk assessment for pesticides: A tool for decision making Antonio Finizio, Sara Villa Environmental Impact Assessment Review. Volume 22, Issue 3, May 2002, Pages 235–248Volume 22, Issue 3. Scheme of the procedure for evaluating environmental risk distribution on the territory by integrating risk assessment procedures and GIS (modified from Calliera et al., 1999).Calliera et al., 1999 Diunduh dari: 6/1/2013 Risiko Ekotoksikol ogis untuk ekosistem non-target Data toksikologis untuk organisme hidup Sifat Fisika- Kimia Dosis aplikasi Data Aplikasi Karakterisasi Ekosistem

129 Linking marine fisheries to environmental objectives: a case study on seafloor integrity under European maritime policies Heino O. Fock, Matthias Kloppmann, Vanessa Stelzenmüller Environmental Science & Policy. Volume 14, Issue 3, May 2011, Pages 289–300Volume 14, Issue 3 Fisheries is regarded a significant impact to the marine environment, and the management of fisheries under maritime environmental policies will be an important task for the future. A relative ecological risk model is applied to define risk components of gain and loss in relationship to 7 demersal fishing métiers for the seafloor ecosystem in the German EEZ. Four scenarios are evaluated against the policy goals from European maritime policies. It is shown that two measures combined in an integrative assessment, i.e. effort reduction to MSY and areal closures, are likely to meet requirements from 3 environmental policies, i.e. the Marine Strategy Framework Directive, the Habitats Directive, and the Common Fisheries Policy. Sustainability in terms of maximum sustainable yield for fisheries is likely to provide only partial improvement of the environmental status of the marine ecosystem. The implementation into the pressure-state-response framework of environmental management is discussed. Diunduh dari: ………. 6/1/2013

130 Linking marine fisheries to environmental objectives: a case study on seafloor integrity under European maritime policies Heino O. Fock, Matthias Kloppmann, Vanessa Stelzenmüller Environmental Science & Policy. Volume 14, Issue 3, May 2011, Pages 289–300Volume 14, Issue 3 (A) Procedural steps for ecological risk assessment (U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 1998). (B) Formalizing PSR assessments (left) and the relative ecological risk assessment referring to the steps problem formulation, analysis and characterization. Some PSR models approach risk models, so there is a transition from left to right. Note, that ecological state is not an integral part of the risk model, but for the PSR models.U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 1998 Diunduh dari: ………. 6/1/2013 Formulasi Masalah Model Konseptual: Parameter - Indikator Karakterisasi Risiko Kriteria penerimaan Risiko Analisis Karakterisasi Paparan Karakterisasi efek ekologis Formulasi masalah Penetapan hasil pendugaan Model KOnseptual

131 . Development of a geography-referenced regional exposure assessment tool for European rivers—GREAT-ER T Feijtel, G Boeije, M Matthies, A Young, G Morris,, C Gandolfi, B Hansen, K Fox, E Matthijs, V Koch, R Schroder, G Cassani, D Schowanek, J Rosenblom, M Holt Journal of Hazardous Materials. Volume 61, Issues 1–3, August 1998, Pages 59–65 Volume 61, Issues 1–3Volume 61, Issues 1–3 The objective of the GREAT-ER project is to develop and validate a powerful and accurate aquatic chemical exposure prediction tool for use within the EU environmental risk assessment schemes. Current techniques to estimate regional PECs use a generic multimedia `unit world' approach and do not account for spatial and temporal variability in landscape characteristics, river flows and/or chemical emissions. Hence, the results are merely applicable on a generic screening level since these models do not offer a realistic prediction of actual steady-state background concentrations. In addition, the default EU generic regional environment (EU Technical Guidance Documents, 1996) only allows treatment for 70% of the waste water mass loading, leaving 30% of mass loading to this generic region untreated. A new database, model and software system will be developed to calculate the distribution of predicted environmental concentrations (PEC), both in space and time, of down the drain chemicals in European surface waters on a river and catchment area level. Data on dissolved oxygen, biological oxygen demand and ammonia will also be used to assess water quality and to provide data for calibration and validation. The system will use Geographical Information Systems (GIS) for data storage and visualization, combined with simple mathematical models for prediction of chemical fate. Hydrological databases and models will be used to determine flow and dilution data. This refined exposure assessment tool should greatly enhance the accuracy of current local and regional exposure estimation methods. The new exposure assessment methodology will integrate specific environmental information and be worked out in a geographically-referenced framework, ultimately on a pan-European scale. This research project is carried out on behalf of ECETOC, and sponsored by the Environmental Risk Assessment Steering Committee (ERASM) of the Association Internationale de la Savonnerie, de la Détergence et des Produits d'Entretien (A.I.S.E.) and the Comité Européen de Agents de Surface et Intermédiares Organiques (CESIO) in cooperation with the UK Environment Agency. Diunduh dari: 6/1/2013

132 . Development of a geography-referenced regional exposure assessment tool for European rivers—GREAT-ER T Feijtel, G Boeije, M Matthies, A Young, G Morris,, C Gandolfi, B Hansen, K Fox, E Matthijs, V Koch, R Schroder, G Cassani, D Schowanek, J Rosenblom, M Holt Journal of Hazardous Materials. Volume 61, Issues 1–3, August 1998, Pages 59–65 Volume 61, Issues 1–3Volume 61, Issues 1–3. Refinement of generic regional exposure models by using actual discharge pathway, treatment and river flow data into account. Diunduh dari: 6/1/2013

133 Development of a geography-referenced regional exposure assessment tool for European rivers—GREAT-ER T Feijtel, G Boeije, M Matthies, A Young, G Morris,, C Gandolfi, B Hansen, K Fox, E Matthijs, V Koch, R Schroder, G Cassani, D Schowanek, J Rosenblom, M Holt Journal of Hazardous Materials. Volume 61, Issues 1–3, August 1998, Pages 59–65Volume 61, Issues 1–3 Integration of the GREAT-ER methodology. Diunduh dari: 6/1/2013 Model Hidrologis Model Run off DAS Pengolahan data spatial Model Sungai (Perilaku/ Kualitas) Model Jalur-limbah (Perilaku/ Kualitas) Perhitungan & Visualisasi PEC (DAS, Sungai, Regional) Demografi Debit sungai Tanah, landuse, Iklim Database DAS

134 . Ecological vulnerability in risk assessment — A review and perspectives H.J. De Lange, S. Sala, M. Vighi, J.H. Faber Science of The Total Environment. Volume 408, Issue 18, 15 August 2010, Pages 3871–3879Volume 408, Issue 18 This paper reviews the application of ecological vulnerability analysis in risk assessment and describes new developments in methodology. For generic non-site-specific assessments (e.g. for the requirements of most European directives on dangerous chemicals) risk is characterised just on the basis of the ratio between an effect indicator and an exposure indicator. However, when the actual risk for a specific ecosystem is desired, the concept of ecological vulnerability may be more appropriate. This calls for a change in thinking, from sensitivity at the organism level to vulnerability at higher organization levels, and thus forms the link from laboratory toxicology to field effects at population, community or ecosystem level. To do so, biological and ecological characteristics of the ecosystems under concern are needed to estimate the ecological vulnerability. In this review we describe different vulnerability analysis methods developed for populations (of a single species), communities (consisting of different populations of species) and ecosystems (community and habitat combined). We also give some examples of methods developed for socio-ecological systems. Aspects that all methods share are the use of expert judgment, the input of stakeholders, ranking and mapping of the results, and the qualitative nature of the results. A new general framework is presented to guide future ecological vulnerability analysis. This framework can be used as part of ecological risk assessment, but also in risk management. We conclude that the further quantification of ecological vulnerability is a valuable contribution to vulnerability assessment. Diunduh dari: 6/1/2013

135 . Ecological vulnerability in risk assessment — A review and perspectives H.J. De Lange, S. Sala, M. Vighi, J.H. Faber Science of The Total Environment. Volume 408, Issue 18, 15 August 2010, Pages 3871–3879Volume 408, Issue 18 Scales and type of stressors of the different vulnerability methods. Methods are abbreviated as in and. Scales and type of stressors of the different vulnerability methods. Methods are abbreviated as in and. Diunduh dari: 6/1/2013 Biosfer Daratan Lanskap Region Ekosistem Populasi Organisme Habitat / Komunitas Ekologis Sosio-Ekologis

136 . Ecological vulnerability in risk assessment — A review and perspectives H.J. De Lange, S. Sala, M. Vighi, J.H. Faber Science of The Total Environment. Volume 408, Issue 18, 15 August 2010, Pages 3871–3879Volume 408, Issue 18 General framework for ecological vulnerability assessment for hazard or interaction of hazards. Bars on top indicate whether physico-chemical characteristics are the main determinant or biological characteristics or both. Environmental conditions indicated with the bar below have an influence on all aspects, but are also influenced by the long-term impact. Diunduh dari: 6/1/2013 Kondisi Lingkungan Biologis Fisiko-Kimia Kerentanan Bahaya Dampak jangka panjang

137 . Fish bioaccumulation and biomarkers in environmental risk assessment: a review Ron van der Oost, Jonny Beyer, Nico P.E Vermeulen Environmental Toxicology and Pharmacology. Volume 13, Issue 2, February 2003, Pages 57–149Volume 13, Issue 2 Fish bioaccumulation markers may be applied in order to elucidate the aquatic behavior of environmental contaminants, as bioconcentrators to identify certain substances with low water levels and to assess exposure of aquatic organisms. Since it is virtually impossible to predict the fate of xenobiotic substances with simple partitioning models, the complexity of bioaccumulation should be considered, including toxicokinetics, metabolism, biota-sediment accumulation factors (BSAFs), organ-specific bioaccumulation and bound residues. Since it remains hard to accurately predict bioaccumulation in fish, even with highly sophisticated models, analyses of tissue levels are required. The most promising fish bioaccumulation markers are body burdens of persistent organic pollutants, like PCBs and DDTs. Since PCDD and PCDF levels in fish tissues are very low as compared with the sediment levels, their value as bioaccumulation markers remains questionable. Easily biodegradable compounds, such as PAHs and chlorinated phenols, do not tend to accumulate in fish tissues in quantities that reflect the exposure. Semipermeable membrane devices (SPMDs) have been successfully used to mimic bioaccumulation of hydrophobic organic substances in aquatic organisms. In order to assess exposure to or effects of environmental pollutants on aquatic ecosystems, the following suite of fish biomarkers may be examined: biotransformation enzymes (phase I and II), oxidative stress parameters, biotransformation products, stress proteins, metallothioneins (MTs), MXR proteins, hematological parameters, immunological parameters, reproductive and endocrine parameters, genotoxic parameters, neuromuscular parameters, physiological, histological and morphological parameters. Diunduh dari: ………. 6/1/2013

138 . Fish bioaccumulation and biomarkers in environmental risk assessment: a review Ron van der Oost, Jonny Beyer, Nico P.E Vermeulen Environmental Toxicology and Pharmacology. Volume 13, Issue 2, February 2003, Pages 57–149Volume 13, Issue 2 All fish biomarkers are evaluated for their potential use in ERA programs, based upon six criteria that have been proposed in the present paper. This evaluation demonstrates that phase I enzymes (e.g. hepatic EROD and CYP1A), biotransformation products (e.g. biliary PAH metabolites), reproductive parameters (e.g. plasma VTG) and genotoxic parameters (e.g. hepatic DNA adducts) are currently the most valuable fish biomarkers for ERA. The use of biomonitoring methods in the control strategies for chemical pollution has several advantages over chemical monitoring. Many of the biological measurements form the only way of integrating effects on a large number of individual and interactive processes in aquatic organisms. Moreover, biological and biochemical effects may link the bioavailability of the compounds of interest with their concentration at target organs and intrinsic toxicity. The limitations of biomonitoring, such as confounding factors that are not related to pollution, should be carefully considered when interpreting biomarker data. Based upon this overview there is little doubt that measurements of bioaccumulation and biomarker responses in fish from contaminated sites offer great promises for providing information that can contribute to environmental monitoring programs designed for various aspects of ERA. Diunduh dari: ………. 6/1/2013

139 . Fish bioaccumulation and biomarkers in environmental risk assessment: a review Ron van der Oost, Jonny Beyer, Nico P.E Vermeulen Environmental Toxicology and Pharmacology. Volume 13, Issue 2, February 2003, Pages 57–149Volume 13, Issue 2 Schematic representation of the sequential order of responses to pollutant stress within a biological system. Modified from Bayne et al. (1985). Schematic representation of the sequential order of responses to pollutant stress within a biological system. Modified from Bayne et al. (1985).Bayne et al. (1985)Bayne et al. (1985) Diunduh dari: ………. 6/1/2013

140 . Fish bioaccumulation and biomarkers in environmental risk assessment: a review Ron van der Oost, Jonny Beyer, Nico P.E Vermeulen Environmental Toxicology and Pharmacology. Volume 13, Issue 2, February 2003, Pages 57–149Volume 13, Issue 2. The principal scheme of responses in organisms to the detrimental effects of pollutant exposure. Modified from McCarthy et al. (1991).McCarthy et al. (1991) Diunduh dari: ………. 6/1/2013

141 . Fish bioaccumulation and biomarkers in environmental risk assessment: a review Ron van der Oost, Jonny Beyer, Nico P.E Vermeulen Environmental Toxicology and Pharmacology. Volume 13, Issue 2, February 2003, Pages 57–149Volume 13, Issue 2 he relationship among the components of the risk characterization stage of retrospective assessments based on the process of ecological epidemiology, including their respective environmental monitoring methods.. he relationship among the components of the risk characterization stage of retrospective assessments based on the process of ecological epidemiology, including their respective environmental monitoring methods. Diunduh dari: ………. 6/1/2013 Sumber Indikator Efek Indikator Paparan Monitoring Kimia Sebab-sebab Lainnya Metode Pemantauan Lingkungan Faktor lingkungan yg memodifikasi Kepekaan Faktor lingkungan yg memodifikasi Paparan Bioakumulasi dan Monitoring efek biologis Efek biologis, Pemantauan kesehatan dan ekosistem

142 . Fish bioaccumulation and biomarkers in environmental risk assessment: a review Ron van der Oost, Jonny Beyer, Nico P.E Vermeulen Environmental Toxicology and Pharmacology. Volume 13, Issue 2, February 2003, Pages 57–149Volume 13, Issue 2. Bioaccumulation model for aquatic organisms. K OC : sorption coefficient; BCF: bioconcentration factor; BSAF: biota-sediment accumulation factor; BMF: biomagnification factor. C refers to a concentration and k to a rate constant. The subscripts S, W, F, B, EXC and MET refer to sediment, water, food, biota, excretion and metabolism, respectively. The digestible sediment fraction is considered to be part of the food. Adapted from Van der Oost et al. (1996a).Van der Oost et al. (1996a) Diunduh dari: ………. 6/1/2013

143 . Fish bioaccumulation and biomarkers in environmental risk assessment: a review Ron van der Oost, Jonny Beyer, Nico P.E Vermeulen Environmental Toxicology and Pharmacology. Volume 13, Issue 2, February 2003, Pages 57–149Volume 13, Issue 2 Possible toxication and detoxification pathways of xenobiotic compounds: (1) direct toxic effect (A); (2) metabolic activation; (3) formation of a stable metabolite which may cause a toxic effect (C); (4) detoxification. The reactive metabolite formed by bioactivation (2) may cause a toxic effect (B) through reaction with critical targets (5) or be detoxified through reaction with a protective agent (6). Adapted from Timbrell (1991), slightly modified.Timbrell (1991) Diunduh dari: ………. 6/1/2013 Efek Toksik Ekskresi SENYAWA ASING Metabolit Stabil

144 . Fish bioaccumulation and biomarkers in environmental risk assessment: a review Ron van der Oost, Jonny Beyer, Nico P.E Vermeulen Environmental Toxicology and Pharmacology. Volume 13, Issue 2, February 2003, Pages 57–149Volume 13, Issue 2 Simplified presentation of the fate of xenobiotic compounds in the liver cell. Route I, a possible mechanism for detoxification or toxication, and route II, a possible mechanism for enzyme induction. AhR, aryl hydrocarbon receptor; HSP90, 90 kDa heat shock protein; ARNT, Ah receptor nuclear translocator; DREs, dioxin responsive elements; cyt P450s, cytochrome P450 isozymes; GSTs, glutathione S-transferases; UDPGTs, UDP-glucuronyl transferases. Diunduh dari: ………. 6/1/2013

145 . Fish bioaccumulation and biomarkers in environmental risk assessment: a review Ron van der Oost, Jonny Beyer, Nico P.E Vermeulen Environmental Toxicology and Pharmacology. Volume 13, Issue 2, February 2003, Pages 57–149Volume 13, Issue 2 A theoretical visualization of the relationships between ecological relevance and time-scales of pollutant-induced biomarker responses. Adapted from Adams et al. (1989). Adams et al. (1989)Adams et al. (1989) Diunduh dari: ………. 6/1/2013

146 . Fish bioaccumulation and biomarkers in environmental risk assessment: a review Ron van der Oost, Jonny Beyer, Nico P.E Vermeulen Environmental Toxicology and Pharmacology. Volume 13, Issue 2, February 2003, Pages 57–149Volume 13, Issue 2 Linkage between P450 and other biochemical systems. This figure illustrates the complex interactions that are known to occur between biochemical systems involved in responses to pollutant exposure. Further linkages remain to be discovered. AhR, Ah receptor; ALAS, δ-amino-levulinic acid synthase; ARE, antioxidant responsive element (electrophilic response element); ARNT, Ah receptor nuclear translocator; BR, bilirubin; BV, biliverdin; CO, carbon monoxide; DRE, dioxin responsive element; EH, epoxide hydrolase; GSH, glutathione; GST, glutathione S-transferase; HAH, halogenated aromatic hydrocarbon; HO, heme oxygenase; HQ, hydroquinone; HSF, heat shock factor; HSP90, 90 kDa heat shock protein; HSRE, heat shock response element; M, metal; MRE, metal responsive element; MRF, metal response factor; MT, metallothionein; NO, nitric oxide; NOS, nitric oxide synthase; cyt P450, cytochrome P450; PP, protoporphyrin; Q, quinone; QR, quinone reductase (a.k.a. DT-diaphorase); SOD, superoxide dismutase; SQ, semiquinone radical; XRE, xenobiotic response element. Adapted from Stegeman and Hahn (1994)Stegeman and Hahn (1994) Diunduh dari: ………. 6/1/2013

147 . Fish bioaccumulation and biomarkers in environmental risk assessment: a review Ron van der Oost, Jonny Beyer, Nico P.E Vermeulen Environmental Toxicology and Pharmacology. Volume 13, Issue 2, February 2003, Pages 57–149Volume 13, Issue 2 The complexity of stress–response relationships. The dose–response paradigm, although necessarily simple for experimental practice, does not adequately account for the multiple, simultaneous stressors to which all species are subjected in natural environments. Adapted from Power and McCarty (1997).Power and McCarty (1997) Diunduh dari: ………. 6/1/2013 Stress - Cekaman

148 . Is there an environmental benefit from remediation of a contaminated site? Combined assessments of the risk reduction and life cycle impact of remediation Gitte Lemming, Julie C. Chambon, Philip J. Binning, Poul L. Bjerg. Journal of Environmental Management. Volume 112, 15 December 2012, Pages 392–403Volume 112 A comparative life cycle assessment is presented for four different management options for a trichloroethene-contaminated site with a contaminant source zone located in a fractured clay till. The compared options are (i) long-term monitoring (ii) in-situ enhanced reductive dechlorination (ERD), (iii) in-situ chemical oxidation (ISCO) with permanganate and (iv) long-term monitoring combined with treatment by activated carbon at the nearby waterworks. The life cycle assessment included evaluation of both primary and secondary environmental impacts. The primary impacts are the local human toxic impacts due to contaminant leaching into groundwater that is used for drinking water, whereas the secondary environmental impacts are related to remediation activities such as monitoring, drilling and construction of wells and use of remedial amendments. The primary impacts for the compared scenarios were determined by a numerical risk assessment and remedial performance model, which predicted the contaminant mass discharge over time at a point of compliance in the aquifer and at the waterworks. The combined assessment of risk reduction and life cycle impacts showed that all management options result in higher environmental impacts than they remediate, in terms of person equivalents and assuming equal weighting of all impacts. The ERD and long-term monitoring were the scenarios with the lowest secondary life cycle impacts and are therefore the preferred alternatives. However, if activated carbon treatment at the waterworks is required in the long-term monitoring scenario, then it becomes unfavorable because of large secondary impacts. ERD is favorable due to its low secondary impacts, but only if leaching of vinyl chloride to the groundwater aquifer can be avoided. Remediation with ISCO caused the highest secondary impacts and cannot be recommended for the site. Diunduh dari: 6/1/2013

149 . Is there an environmental benefit from remediation of a contaminated site? Combined assessments of the risk reduction and life cycle impact of remediation Gitte Lemming, Julie C. Chambon, Philip J. Binning, Poul L. Bjerg. Journal of Environmental Management. Volume 112, 15 December 2012, Pages 392–403Volume 112 Concept for combined evaluation of remedial performance, risk assessment and life cycle assessment. POC: Point of compliance. WW: Waterworks. Diunduh dari: 6/1/2013

150 . Is there an environmental benefit from remediation of a contaminated site? Combined assessments of the risk reduction and life cycle impact of remediation Gitte Lemming, Julie C. Chambon, Philip J. Binning, Poul L. Bjerg. Journal of Environmental Management. Volume 112, 15 December 2012, Pages 392–403Volume 112 Location of the Sortebrovej site and water supply wells in Tommerup. The transect runs along the groundwater flow direction and shows the initial aqueous TCE concentrations [μg/L] and the conceptual local geology and fracture setup used in the model. POC: Point of compliance for assessing groundwater quality criteria. The point is located 100 m downstream of the site. Diunduh dari: 6/1/2013

151 . Is there an environmental benefit from remediation of a contaminated site? Combined assessments of the risk reduction and life cycle impact of remediation Gitte Lemming, Julie C. Chambon, Philip J. Binning, Poul L. Bjerg. Journal of Environmental Management. Volume 112, 15 December 2012, Pages 392–403Volume 112 System boundaries of the life cycle assessment. Diunduh dari: 6/1/2013

152 . Is there an environmental benefit from remediation of a contaminated site? Combined assessments of the risk reduction and life cycle impact of remediation Gitte Lemming, Julie C. Chambon, Philip J. Binning, Poul L. Bjerg. Journal of Environmental Management. Volume 112, 15 December 2012, Pages 392–403Volume 112 Model results showing the (a) contaminant mass in the treatment zone, (b) contaminant concentrations at the POC in the groundwater aquifer 100 m downstream of the source (sum of TCE, DCE and VC), and (c) VC concentrations at 100 m. Note the different scales on the y-axes. Diunduh dari: 6/1/2013

153 . Is there an environmental benefit from remediation of a contaminated site? Combined assessments of the risk reduction and life cycle impact of remediation Gitte Lemming, Julie C. Chambon, Philip J. Binning, Poul L. Bjerg. Journal of Environmental Management. Volume 112, 15 December 2012, Pages 392–403Volume 112 (a) Contaminant concentrations at the waterworks (sum of TCE, DCE and VC), and (b) Individual waterworks concentrations of TCE, DCE and VC for ERD (low rate). (a) Contaminant concentrations at the waterworks (sum of TCE, DCE and VC), and (b) Individual waterworks concentrations of TCE, DCE and VC for ERD (low rate). Diunduh dari: 6/1/2013

154 . A priori assessment of ecotoxicological risks linked to building a hospital Yves Perrodin, Bazin Christine, Bony Sylvie, Devaux Alain, Bertrand- Krajewski Jean-Luc, Cren-Olivé Cécile, Roch Audrey, Brelot Elodie. Chemosphere. Volume 90, Issue 3, January 2013, Pages 1037–1046 Volume 90, Issue 3Volume 90, Issue 3 Hospital wastewaters contain a large number of chemical pollutants such as disinfectants, detergents, and drug residues. A part of these pollutants is not eliminated by traditional urban waste water treatment plants, leading to a major risk for the aquatic ecosystems receiving these effluents. After having formulated a specific methodology in order to assessment ecotoxicological risk for such a situation, we applied it to the project to build a new hospital shared by several towns in the French Alps. This methodology is based on the ecotoxicological characterisation of the hospital wastewater using a battery of three chronic bioassays (Pseudokirchneriella subcapitata, Heterocypris incongruens and Brachionus calyciflorus) and of genotoxicity tests (Ames fluctuation assay on Salmonella typhimurium, and a Fpg-modified comet assay on the trout liver cell line RTL-W1). The formulated methodology highlights a moderate risk of the hospital wastewater for the organisms of the water column of the river concerned. Nevertheless, this discharge contributes significantly to the global ecotoxicological risk when taking into account all the releases of the watershed into the river. This leads to recommending the implementation of a specific treatment system in the urban WWTP, or upstream to it, in view to protecting the aquatic organisms. Diunduh dari: ………. 6/1/2013

155 . A priori assessment of ecotoxicological risks linked to building a hospital Yves Perrodin, Bazin Christine, Bony Sylvie, Devaux Alain, Bertrand- Krajewski Jean-Luc, Cren-Olivé Cécile, Roch Audrey, Brelot Elodie. Chemosphere. Volume 90, Issue 3, January 2013, Pages 1037–1046 Volume 90, Issue 3Volume 90, Issue 3 General diagram of ecological risk assessment (US EPA, 1998). US EPA, 1998US EPA, 1998 Diunduh dari: ………. 6/1/2013

156 . A priori assessment of ecotoxicological risks linked to building a hospital Yves Perrodin, Bazin Christine, Bony Sylvie, Devaux Alain, Bertrand- Krajewski Jean-Luc, Cren-Olivé Cécile, Roch Audrey, Brelot Elodie. Chemosphere. Volume 90, Issue 3, January 2013, Pages 1037–1046 Volume 90, Issue 3Volume 90, Issue 3 Presentation of the studied scenario. With: S: Source of pollution studied (hospital effluent), C1: Environmental target no. 1 to be preserved (river), C2: Environmental target no. 2 to be preserved (groundwater). T1, T2 and T3: Transfers of pollutants between the source and the environmental targets. Diunduh dari: ………. 6/1/2013

157 . A priori assessment of ecotoxicological risks linked to building a hospital Yves Perrodin, Bazin Christine, Bony Sylvie, Devaux Alain, Bertrand- Krajewski Jean-Luc, Cren-Olivé Cécile, Roch Audrey, Brelot Elodie. Chemosphere. Volume 90, Issue 3, January 2013, Pages 1037–1046 Volume 90, Issue 3Volume 90, Issue 3 Conceptual model of the scenario studied. Diunduh dari: ………. 6/1/2013

158 Secondary Poisoning Risk Assessment of Birds and Mammals Exposed to Nickel in Their Diets The conceptual approach to conducting the environment section of the EU risk assessment of nickel included the following steps : 1. 1.Emmissions of nickel and nickel compounds to the environment were quantified for the whole life cycle, i.e., from production, use, and disposal; 2. 2.Concentrations of nickel resulting from these emissions were determined in relevant environmental media (water, sediment, soil, tissue) at local and regional scales (PECs); 3. 3.Critical effects concentrations (PNECs) were determined for each of the relevant environmental media; 4. 4.Exposure concentrations were compared to critical effects concentrations for each of the relevant environmental media (risk characterization); and 5. 5.Appropriate corrective actions (also described as risk management) were identified for situations where exposure concentrations were greater than critical effects concentrations. Where exposure concentrations were below critical effects concentrations, there was no need for concern or action. Diunduh dari: SecondaryPoisoningBirdsMammals.aspx ………. 6/1/2013

159 Secondary Poisoning Risk Assessment of Birds and Mammals Exposed to Nickel in Their Diets Schematic overview of the different steps involved in the EU environmental risk assessment Diunduh dari: SecondaryPoisoningBirdsMammals.aspx ………. 6/1/2013

160 Zhen Chen, Sukulpat Khumpaisal, (2009) "AN ANALYTIC NETWORK PROCESS FOR RISKS ASSESSMENT IN COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE DEVELOPMENT", Journal of Property Investment & Finance, Vol. 27 Iss: 3, pp The purpose of this paper is to introduce a novel decision-making approach to risks assessment in commercial real estate development against social, economic, environmental, and technological (SEET) criteria. It therefore aims to describe a multiple criteria decision-making model based on analytic network process (ANP) theory, and to use an experimental case study on an urban regeneration project in Liverpool to demonstrate the effectiveness of the ANP model. The paper commences with a description about risks related to commercial real estate development, and provides a list of risk assessment criteria based on literature review and experience in related areas. The ANP is then introduced as a powerful multicriteria decision-making method. An experimental case study is finally conducted with scenarios and assumptions based on a real urban regeneration project in Liverpool. The paper defines a group of risks assessment criteria against SEET requirements directly related to commercial real estate development. An ANP model is set up with 29 risks assessment criteria, and results from an experimental case study reveal that the ANP method is effective to support decision-making based on risks assessment to select the most appropriate development plan; and therefore it is applicable in commercial area. Diunduh dari: 6/1/2013

161 Zhen Chen, Sukulpat Khumpaisal, (2009) "AN ANALYTIC NETWORK PROCESS FOR RISKS ASSESSMENT IN COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE DEVELOPMENT", Journal of Property Investment & Finance, Vol. 27 Iss: 3, pp Diunduh dari: 6/1/2013


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