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03/11/14 SLUB - as – w2 1 SLUB Honours Class [Week 3 -- AS: Complexity, non-normal dists, networks and ABM; Sabina Kloppers: Dutch Medicine Law] AERNOUT.

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Presentation on theme: "03/11/14 SLUB - as – w2 1 SLUB Honours Class [Week 3 -- AS: Complexity, non-normal dists, networks and ABM; Sabina Kloppers: Dutch Medicine Law] AERNOUT."— Presentation transcript:

1 03/11/14 SLUB - as – w2 1 SLUB Honours Class [Week 3 -- AS: Complexity, non-normal dists, networks and ABM; Sabina Kloppers: Dutch Medicine Law] AERNOUT SCHMIDT SABINA KLOPPERS

2 For this Week: Week 3 (18/11/14) 03/11/14SLUB - as – w22 Project issues: Write a blog an a fundamental applied debate in the culture of your choice (and upload to dotlegalslub) Write a blog on a cross disciplinary debate between two cultures of your choice (and upload to dotlegalslub) Upload before Monday 17-11, h. Read: Wong, Gostin & Cabrera ( ) Prepare 1: Recital (I) – descriptive Prepare 2: Recital (I) – use wrt aim

3 Blog overview 03/11/14SLUB - as – w23 User/dlnrInternal discomf.External discomfortR-dR-a jjsteltmanMedical-medicalMedical-legal hsdegeusBeta-betaMedical-legal sofietolMedical-medcalStatistical-legal lorijnIncoherent beta tests?Psychiatry-law TahiraLaw-law (vague)Beta-law (test-interpretation) CharlieP Freweini Lizlieverse Ribberingbritt Melissa Kachotkan?

4 Side Lecture: Week 3 (18/11/14) 03/11/14SLUB - as – w24 Complexity, Networks and Non-normal distributions, Agent Based Modeling

5 Cross-disciplinary Discomfort Caused by POPH & CACH? & Specialization? If so, can Considering Complexity help further understand these causes? Lets do some terminology first! 03/11/14SLUB - as - w15

6 P. Of D.: Good & Bad science and -law do exist Applying Bad law is positivist behaviour (remedy: improve the democracy function) Applying Bad Science is immoral Law application (remedy: judges improve their c&c over science) The seminal example: Lucia de Berk (1): a victim of immoral law application Lucia de Berk (2): a subject of moral applied sciences in law YANO Morality: Willingness to act upon a conviction 03/11/14SLUB - as - w16

7 Conviction := a modality of Understanding, of comprehension 03/11/14SLUB - as - w17 All comprehension relates to imagery Knowledge := comprehension that most participants in a group/culture/institution are prepared to act upon (useful comprehension) Visceral creed := an individual’s (or an insitution’s) collection of gut-felt convictions or culturally constrained (normed) talents Culture CreedTalents ComprehensionKnowledge Culture

8 03/11/14SLUB - as - w18 Culturally constrained (normed) talents turn (with situated practice) into niche-dependent capabilities – e.g.: To survive (Darwin: repr., met. & eco. efficiency) To group (Sherif: Robbers Cave; Asch’s exp.) To band against bullies (De Waal) To worship & cooperate (religions, wars) To experiment, understand (convictions) To communicate (imagery, languages) Talents & Capabilities

9 A few references … Asch, S., Effects of group pressure upon the modification and distortion of judgment (Carnegie Press, Pittsburgh, Pa, 1951), 177–190. Barabási, A.-L. and R. Albert, Emergence of scaling in random networks, Science 286 (1999), 509–512. Bloom, P., Just Babies: The Origins of Good and Evil (Random House LLC, 2013). Darwin, C., On the Origin of Species by Means of Natural Selection or, The Preservation of Favoured Races in the Struggle for Life (Collector’s Library (2004), 1859). Dawkins, R., The extended phenotype: The long reach of the gene (Oxford University Press, 1982). Haidt, J., The righteous mind: Why good people are divided by politics and religion (Allen Lane, 2012). Page, S. E., A complexity perspective on institutional design, Politics, Philosophy & Economics 11 (2012), 5–25. Pinker, S., The stuff of thought: Language as a window into human nature (Viking Pr, 2007). Sherif, M., The Robbers Cave experiment: Intergroup conflict and cooperation (Wesleyan (available at 1961). 03/11/14SLUB - as – w29

10 03/11/14SLUB - as - w110 Models (also: theories) support useful comprehension, through fostering Connectedness (pattern recognition), Unification (diverse application), Simplicity, Falsifiability and Being Paradigmatic Lies are models or stories employed to cheat Stories are all other forms of imagery Imagery: Models, Lies & Stories

11 03/11/14SLUB - as - w111 Why 15 (partial) nuclear meltdowns in 60 years? (1954 BORAX-I – 2011 Fukushima) Morality of admitting ignorance (1) Application: … a total of 15 meltdowns with more than 15 victims, all within a time span of a mere 60 years comes as a shock to whom believes in the applicability of standard statistics in the standard manner on exceptional events. And nobody in his right wits does, of course. We all know that such numbers (as once in years to any member of the public) are crap. Theory: … a report by the UK Health & Security Executive, drafted in 1988 (two years after Chernobyl), and revised in 1992 (three years after Greifswald): “We propose to maintain our existing position that a risk of 1 in per annum to any member of the public is the maximum that should be tolerated”

12 03/11/14SLUB - as - w112 Morality of admitting ignorance (2) We cannot compute the probability that a nuclear plant will be hit by a meteorite, by a terrorist loner that succeeded to infiltrate or by a deranged local engineer resentful of his boss claiming his credits -- or by the endless list of other possibilities, among which wars and drones and pandemics and earthquakes and tsunamis etc. We simply don't know. Consequently: Admitting ignorance is of great moral impor- tance: stories presented as models breed lies.

13 Comprehension: Explaining the past? Predicting the future? Formal Games (math, fundamental) Universal laws (β, fundamental) Isolated Causality (machinery, ICT, applied) β-Embedded autonomy (α, γ, δ, contingency) Systems of all of the above, unfolding in ecologies (ABM, simulation, complexity) 03/11/14SLUB - as – w213

14 03/11/14SLUB - as – w214 WHAT CAUSED THE YUKUSHIMA NUCLEAR PLANT TO MELT DOWN?

15 03/11/14SLUB - as – w215 WHAT CAUSED THE YUKUSHIMA NUCLEAR PLANT TO MELT DOWN? (2)

16 03/11/14SLUB - as – w216 WHAT CAUSED THE YUKUSHIMA MELT DOWN? (3)

17 03/11/14SLUB - as – w217 A crude look at the whole yields a complex adaptive system, that is: a collection of heterogeneous, autonomous agents that are nodes that show individual behaviour in a communication network that constrains the generation of emergent, system-level behaviour. Communication networks in complex adaptive systems tend to emerge as small-world networks. Observable variables describing such networks tend have power-law distributions, which undermines naïve application and standard imterpretation of normal-distribution oriented statistics like standard errors, regressions, correlations.

18 A small-world network 03/11/14SLUB - as – w218

19 03/11/14SLUB - as – w219 Which lands us at the research difficulties that may have caused the alpha and a large part of the gamma disciplines to become less and less comfortable in research oriented communications with the betas and deltas. These areas of friction may be relieved by the recent developments that make agent based modelling and agent based simulations at long last feasible. After discussing what to do for next week I will give a single ABM example: Schelling’s segregation model.

20 For Next Week: Week 4 (25/11/14) 03/11/14SLUB - as – w220 Project issues: Create a simple table with for each relevant actor (agent) in the Lucia de Berk case a (numbered) row, and create two fields in each row. The first field contains a list with the agent-numbers that the actor’s efficacies depend on and the second field contains a list with the agent-numbers that the actor can unfluence through communication. Write a blog explaining your findings wrt the aim of this HC - Upload before Monday 24-11, h. Read: Kaye and Freedman ( ) Prepare: Recitals – descriptive, wrt aim

21 03/11/14SLUB - as – w221 THANKS & GOOD LUCK!


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