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©2013 CoreLogic, Inc. All rights reserved. Proprietary & Confidential Knowing where events are going to happen CANE – September 2014 Howard A Kunst, FCAS MAAA Chief Actuary, CoreLogic Spatial Solutions
©2013 CoreLogic, Inc. All rights reserved. Proprietary & Confidential The Casualty Actuarial Society is committed to adhering strictly to the letter and spirit of the antitrust laws. Seminars conducted under the auspices of the CAS are designed solely to provide a forum for the expression of various points of view on topics described in the programs or agendas for such meetings. Under no circumstances shall CAS seminars be used as a means for competing companies or firms to reach any understanding –expressed or implied – that restricts competition or in any way impairs the ability of members to exercise independent business judgment regarding matters affecting competition. It is the responsibility of all seminar participants to be aware of antitrust regulations, to prevent any written or verbal discussions that appear to violate these laws, and to adhere in every respect to the CAS antitrust compliance policy. Antitrust Notice
©2013 CoreLogic, Inc. All rights reserved. Proprietary & Confidential Session Objectives What determines the short term vs long term frequency? Geographical accuracy Models predict where the events are more likely to occur Geocoding accuracy – understanding granular data Validation of recent history of events Hail Tornado Wildfire Combination of multiple perils – Single Risk Score 3
©2013 CoreLogic, Inc. All rights reserved. Proprietary & Confidential Understanding where events can happen What affects the short term frequency of events? Climate change – frequency of events and geographic distribution Solar activity Heat – sunk in the earth, stored in oceans Drought conditions / Abundance of precipitation Time elapsed since last event Random variation It’s almost impossible to predict exactly when and where the next event is going to happen But if you can predict the locations with the highest risk for an event, isn’t that just as much or more important for setting a natural catastrophe plan/strategy? 4
©2013 CoreLogic, Inc. All rights reserved. Proprietary & Confidential Knowing where events are going to happen Scientists gather information on the both short/long term factors that increase/decrease the likelihood of natural catastrophic events Models are developed that set a risk level for every location across the US – extremely granular (10 meter grids) Revisions are made annually to adjust for more recent information (ie vegetation changes / drought conditions for Wildfires) Ongoing validation on the accuracy of the models by comparing where recent events have occurred to the estimated risk levels Do the actual events in fact occur in the higher risk areas that we expected? 5
©2013 CoreLogic, Inc. All rights reserved. Proprietary & Confidential The importance of granularity Parcel boundary data represents the legal extents of each taxable U.S. property address. There are an estimated 145 million privately owned parcels in the U.S. CoreLogic has converted and normalized about 140 million parcels from state, county, city, and town sources As these digital parcel boundaries become available they are rapidly being incorporated into applications to enhance: o Geocoding accuracy o Risk assessment o Risk concentration o Many other uses where “granular” accuracy is important What is Parcel Data?
©2013 CoreLogic, Inc. All rights reserved. Proprietary & Confidential Wildfire Risk Determination Data Elements Digital Elevation Model (DEM) Satellite Imagery Vegetation Condition Class data Data Granularity Input cell size based on 30m grid All layers sampled at 30m Vegetation Composition Class Aspect Slope Wildfire Risk 20% of Total Risk 80% of Total Risk Slope Aspect Fuel Load Condition Class Topography Fuel Wildfire Risk
©2013 CoreLogic, Inc. All rights reserved. Proprietary & Confidential NC QL2 LiDAR (2014) Actual Survey Elevations 30m Profile 10m Profile 4m Profile QL2 – 0.3m Profile QL2 nearly mirrors existing high precision survey data Cross-Section River Floodplain
©2013 CoreLogic, Inc. All rights reserved. Proprietary & Confidential Severe Convective Storms (SCS) Severe Convective Storms (SCS) refer to Tornado, Hail and Straight Line Wind events Prior to recent events, less attention given to SCS vs Hurricane and Earthquake Tornados and the storms that generate tornados account for more than half of the insured catastrophic losses (57%) that occur each year in the U.S. – and extend beyond “Tornado Alley” Frequency of observed events has increased Growing population Better observational tools (Doppler radar, etc.) Rising global temperature? 9
©2013 CoreLogic, Inc. All rights reserved. Proprietary & Confidential10
©2013 CoreLogic, Inc. All rights reserved. Proprietary & Confidential Distribution of 2”+ Hail events 11 52.4% of Damaging Hail events occur in areas with Extreme Hail Risk levels 85.6% of Damaging Hail events occur in areas of High, Very High or Extreme Hail Risk; those areas are only 40.7% of the land area of the USA.
©2013 CoreLogic, Inc. All rights reserved. Proprietary & Confidential 12
©2013 CoreLogic, Inc. All rights reserved. Proprietary & Confidential Annual EF0-EF5 Tornadoes 13
©2013 CoreLogic, Inc. All rights reserved. Proprietary & Confidential Distribution of F2 and above Tornado events 30.3% of F2 and higher events occur in areas with Extreme Tornado Risk levels 84.3% of F2 and above events occur in areas of High, Very High or Extreme Risk; those areas are only 40.0% of the land area of the USA. 14
©2013 CoreLogic, Inc. All rights reserved. Proprietary & Confidential Overview - CoreLogic Wildfire Hazard Risk Report Drought conditions (only 5 states in the western U.S. recorded precipitation at or above average in 2012) and high temperatures impact the number of wildfires 67,664 Wildfires in 2012 9,326,000 acres burned in 2012 For , on average over 2,500 structures destroyed each year, compared with less than 1,000 per year for all prior decades Over 1,260,000 residential properties in the western U.S are currently located in High or Very High Wildfire risk areas, with a value of more than $189 billion 15
©2013 CoreLogic, Inc. All rights reserved. Proprietary & Confidential Wildfire – Bastrop County, TX 16
©2013 CoreLogic, Inc. All rights reserved. Proprietary & Confidential Wildfire – Bastrop County, TX 17 Wildfire – Bastrop County, TX
©2013 CoreLogic, Inc. All rights reserved. Proprietary & Confidential Wildfire – Bastrop County TX 18 % of properties damaged increases with Wildfire Risk Score Damage % varies across Very High Risk scores, but increasing Wildfire Risk Score summary % of properties damaged or destroyed, by WF score
©2013 CoreLogic, Inc. All rights reserved. Proprietary & Confidential Hazard Risk Score Summary 19
©2013 CoreLogic, Inc. All rights reserved. Proprietary & Confidential There is an increasing number of events over the past decade Location of recent events seem to follow where the models predict they will occur Hail and Tornado damage extends and causes damage beyond just the traditional Tornado Alley 20 Summary
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