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Yemen Urban Water Extreme challenges, practical solutions and lessons for the future – learning from the case of Taiz Presentation by James Firebrace to.

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Presentation on theme: "Yemen Urban Water Extreme challenges, practical solutions and lessons for the future – learning from the case of Taiz Presentation by James Firebrace to."— Presentation transcript:

1 Yemen Urban Water Extreme challenges, practical solutions and lessons for the future – learning from the case of Taiz Presentation by James Firebrace to ODI event Groundwater, Poverty and Development 28 Nov 2014 Study financed by UK’s Conflict Prevention Pool James Firebrace Associates Ltd +44 1473 735430 / +44 7866 495523

2 ODI Presentation Contents Scene setting: Taiz and extreme water scarcity Water and the Taiz economy Water options looking ahead Greater Taiz survey results – Affordability of new water, water demand projections – Situation of poorer households Transition issues, city distribution options Beyond Taiz: – Pipeline communities – Hinterland issues, Groundwater Protection Zones 2

3 Scene Setting An overview of the Taiz situation 3

4 Taiz location at c.1000m, nearest port at Mokha 4

5 5

6 Increasing problems, increasing urgency Taiz now the greatest urban water challenge in the world – “the iconic water scarce big city: too little water, too high, growing too fast, with insufficient tax-revenues to finance new infrastructure and much needed reforms” (Prof Tony Allan) City and hinterland conflicts – Fresh flare ups in Haima – Utility unable to enter new areas for drilling (insufficient potential anyway) – Delaying addressing the problem means increased conflict and a risk of collapse of the city’s ever-deteriorating piped supply All key water indicators show alarming deterioration – Price of water (tankers and kawthers) strongly rising (even before fuel price rises) – Per capita consumption declining – Quality deteriorating – Frequency of LC delivery declining 6

7 The situation in Taiz has been continually deteriorating but most seriously since 2010 7 Taiz Data1996200420102013 Population Greater Taiz ‘000320570750840 LC (piped water) LC Water Sold Mm3/yr2. Pop Served by LC ‘000255317336365 % Population of Greater Taiz served80%56%45%43% LC Served Population l/c/d26353722 (LC water over whole population l/c/d)20.519.716.49.5 LC Water Quality EC uS/cm2000300040005600 LC Water Delivery Interval3 weeks2 weeks4 weeks1 to 2 months Tankers Tanker users (% households) 58%80% Tanker price YR / 3m3 (av over year)1412160519902825 Tanker Water price $/m32. Tanker l/c/d 45.568.8 Dabbas (Kawther water) Dabba users (% households) 85%84% Dabba Water price YR / 10litres35 4050 Dabba Water price $/m316 1923 Dabba l/c/d LC + Tankers + Kawther water l/c/d over whole population 25.826.724.320.2

8 Greater Taiz – growing fast, out along the main roads where no mains connections and dependent on tankers 8

9 Taiz coping strategies to extreme water scarcity Pumping from the annual rainfall recharge – Problem of successive dry years (exacerbated by climate change) Utility only able to provide water every 1 to 2 months – and then to less than half the population of Greater Taiz The Taiz population has adapted with ingenuity and enterprise. For water: – Storage of utility water (when it comes) in drums, baths, tanks... – Private tankers (‘wyatt’) deliver from private wells – Corner desalination shops (‘kawther’) to purify for drinking – Private networks in non-utility areas where there is still accessible groundwater – Rainwater collection and storage – Free water for the poorest from mosques and wellheads For sanitation: – Household sanitation - outside utility served areas (38% for sanitation) households must construct their own tanks 9

10 Cartoon in Al-Jumhuriya Nov 2013, showing dependence on tankered water 10

11 Water scarcity hits the poorest households hardest Some 15% of the households of Greater Taiz have an income below 25,000YR/month ($120) – i.e. less than $4/day for an average household of over seven Low income households are further disadvantaged by their inability to store water from the utility supply – if connected – The lack of storage potential for poor households also means they cannot benefit from collecting rainwater during the rainy seasons – Poor often get utility water last, and have to pay for at least 5m3 whatever they actually receive The % of household income spent on water is much higher for the lower income groups – Unless they rely of free water from mosques or wellheads 11

12 12

13 Water and the Taiz economy 13

14 Industry: water is key to the future economy of Taiz Water will be critical to the future growth prospects of industry in Taiz – Revitalisation or relocation elsewhere – Key issues are water reliability, water quality as components of the investment climate (not so much price) Industrial growth will mean increased demand for desalinated water – potential unit cost savings with higher volumes – A revitalised industry in Taiz (7% growth) could require some 4x current water usage by 2030 000m3/day 2010 baseline of 6,000 m3/day

15 Supply chains Consumers Distribution & retail chains Water sector (better quality, more reliable, cheaper water) Water sector (better quality, more reliable, cheaper water) Increased disposable income Industrial sectors Wages spent in economy Business & health tourism revenues How better water supply affects industry (Dr C. Coles, JFA) DIRECT EFFECTS INDUCED EFFECTS INDIRECT EFFECTS DYNAMIC EFFECTS: Infrastructure development; innovation; skills upgrades etc.

16 The Future of Taiz – Urbanisation and prosperity 16 Two potential drivers for urbanisation, one stabilising, one destabilising: i) Urban economic revitalisation draws in a needed workforce ii) Rural economic collapse throws out population it can no longer support Reproduced from Economist 2.10.12

17 Options for increasing water supply Note: little opportunity for reducing demand (which is already way below international standards) 17

18 Integrated Water Resource Management Existing and alternative inland sources need to be used as far as possible But each of these potential sources faces constraints and volumes are limited Only desalination offers long term potential at the volumes (and quality) needed 18

19 Integrated water: the main options for Taiz (1) (illustrative, broad estimates only) 19

20 Integrated water: the main options for Taiz (2) (illustrative, broad estimates only) 20

21 Some options that have been proposed New well drilling further into the hinterland, but – Would need to be enforced by military zones – Limited water anyway, already used in agriculture Relocate city to the coast, but – Lack of infrastructure and services are major constraints on new business – Water vs energy trade-off at domestic level – Limitations to ground water (saline intrusion) Desalinated water – Cost of desalination + cost of pumping 21

22 Greater Taiz Survey 2013 Some Key Results 22

23 Greater Taiz income distribution x 23

24 % Income spent on water by income band Poorest households spend a lot higher proportion of household income than richer households – Band I is spending some 20% of household income on water – Middle income bands (III and IV) around 10% – Highest bands (VI and VII) only around 3 to 4% Kawther use is relatively constant across the bands – As you’d expect for essential drinking water for which it is difficult to economise – For lower bands this accounts for around half of water expenditure Expenditure on LC water declines from some 3% for lowest bands to around 1% for highest bands Water use per capita (litres per capita per day) highly constrained in poorest band – with high income groups using close to twice this amount 24

25 Affordability of New Water 25

26 The three components of desalination costs and hence consumer price (indicative figures only) A.Desal cost at the plant on the coast at Mokha. Depends critically on cost of energy, and water volumes supplied B.Pumping costs to Taiz reservoirs at c.1100-1400m. Depends on nature of capital financing for pipeline and pumps, and energy costs (coal vs HFO vs Diesel, subsidies) C.Urban distribution costs. Depend critically on method of distribution. Tankers are considerably more expensive than piped water, with fuel (and length of trip) critical to costs. Mokha Taiz A. Desal plant c.$1.25 - $2.0/m3 C. City distribution c. $0.4 to$1.5/m3, depending on pipe or tanker, (assuming numerous quick filling stations near to population) B. Transmission c.90¢ - $1.5/m3, assuming capital costs by grant

27 Affordability of new water – poorest households as the main beneficiaries Using the prices generated by our consumer price modelling (with assumptions on capital grants and energy costs) – $2.3/m3 for LC water with mixing – $3.9/m3 new clean water wyatts – $3.7/m3 private networks Those able to benefit from LC water would benefit from desal (assuming mix with best of existing supplies means drinkable water), except top band Those using only the new water wyatts, the poorest would benefit, middle bands would be spending largely the same as now, the top two bands about a quarter more rather more Those using private networks, the poorest would benefit, middle bands would be spending largely the same as now, the top two bands about 15% more 27

28 Distribution options for desalinated water in Taiz: A Revitalised Utility Tanker Franchises Private / Community Network Franchises

29 Mitigating distribution risks in Greater Taiz: Franchising Tankers – Phase I The initial step of franchising is to move from the existing informal poor quality System (above), to a trained and quality monitored approach for the distribution of the potable and relatively expensive New Water. This could build for example on the present ‘kawther’ water provision(below), which operate to a higher standard than tankers distributing untreated water. 29

30 As soon as possible, commencement of pipe network to nearest houses with continuing tankering to more distant housing Piped water supply Tankered water supply Mitigating distribution risks in Greater Taiz Franchising local networks – Phase II 30

31 Existing community network Expanding but now a dry borehole so no additional water resources 31 “Yes, 600YR, yes 800 if that is the cost – it is cheaper than the tankers”

32 Mitigating risks for the lowest income communities Prepaid Meters 32


34 Beyond Taiz: addressing the needs of: Pipeline communities Nearby towns Nearby agricultural settlements 34

35 Secure water for Pipeline Communities Following concerns from donors that the pipeline could become a point of vulnerability One solution is to ensure that pipeline communities explicitly benefit from the overall project But providing desal water makes little sense for communities that have relatively plentiful good quality water at low cost What they don’t always have is a local project that can deliver piped water into the home The JFA study has now identified a number of such projects The proposal is that they should be financed and implemented as part of the transition phase preparing Taiz, other nearby towns in need of water (such as Al-Qaida) for new water 35

36 Indicative location of recently Completed 8 lane outer ring-road Potential route of pipeline to Ibb ? Franchisee Distributor Franchisee Distributor Franchisee Distributor Franchisee Distributor Franchisee Distributor Groundwater Protection Zone Groundwater Protection Zone Groundwater Protection Zone Groundwater Protection Zone Groundwater Protection Zone Groundwater Protection Zones to include the entirety of the city and its environs 36

37 Groundwater protection around Taiz To ensure the viability of new water franchisees To protect the public health of the people – Protect consumers from shallow abstraction of polluted water To allow increased sewage flow to recharge areas – And later potentially treatment and re-use But also To support the sustainability of the hinterland for agriculture (and thereby mitigate the conflicts) – Protect surrounding areas which are currently heavily over- abstracted – Potential enforcement supported by local water user groups – Note encouraging evidence of local cooperation in defence of groundwater protection 37

38 End of presentation slides For further details on JFA’s work contact James Firebrace Office: +44 1473 735430 International Mobile: +44 7866 495523 Yemen: +967 713 149 741 Ethiopia: +251 935 31 99 09 Somaliland: 252 633 67 93 64 38

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