Presentation on theme: "Quarterly Integrated Euro Area Accounts"— Presentation transcript:
1 Quarterly Integrated Euro Area Accounts ECB-RESTRICTEDFINALGabriel Quirós Head of MacroeconomicsStatistics DivisionEuropean Central BankQuarterly Integrated Euro Area AccountsJoint ECB NBRM Seminar on Statistics Skopje, 4 October 2013
2 Euro Area Accounts Why: ECB as a key user of statistics What are the EAA?How: Integration of data sourcesResults + UsesAnnexes:1 New ECB Guideline: Changes from 20142 Additional examples of uses3 Links to data and publications
4 ECB as key user of European statistics An evidence-based decision-making requires a large amount of high quality European statisticsPrimary objective of price stability(annual increase in HICP of close but below 2% over the medium term)Governing Council takesmonetary policy decisions basedon an overall assessment of therisks to price stabilityEconomic analysis focusing on a wide range of economic and financial indicators (short to medium-term risks to price stability)Monetary analysis (medium to long-term trends in inflation)cross-checkingEconomic and financial information4
5 What are the EAA ? Synopsis of inputs + outputs National Financial AccountsNational non-financial accountsIntegrated Euro Area AccountsFinancial AccountsNon-Financial AccountsEuro Area Building blocks : - BoP - MFI - IF + FVC - ICPF - GFSOther :BoP-euro area European Institutions (ECB, ESM)Quarterly ECB Press Release on Economic and Financial DevelopmentsQuarterly Eurostat Press Releases on Household saving + Business Investment
6 What are the EAA? Giving Indicators an Accounting Framework GDPM3HH ConsumptionGov DeficitGov Debt
7 Integrating data sources: National data and euro area building blocks The euro area accounts integrate a large number of different data sourcesNon-financial sector accountsFinancial accounts: The ECB “MUFA” GuidelineBuilding blocks:Balance of Payments (BoP)MFI Balance Sheet Items (BSI)Quarterly Financial Accounts for General Government (QFAGG)…
8 The MUFA Guideline and building blocks Monetary Union Financial Accounts (MUFA) are compiled by combining national data - coming through the ECB MUFA Guideline - and euro area financial building blocksWhich criteria are followed when deciding the source for each cell in the matrix ?Data reliabilityUser needs and preferencesMinimize horizontal imbalancesFuture development of the accounts, in particular in terms of timeliness
9 Data sources: National financial accounts and building blocks (BSI, BOP, QFAGG)
10 Uses – some example: Enriching monetary analysis Financial investment by householdsAnnual growth rateValue of analysing M3 developments by institutional sectorCloser link between M3 holdings by households and price developments (but headline M3 still better predictor of turning-points)Looking at M3 against total financial investment / broader portfolio of assetsRole of OFIs and ICPFs for financial intermediation & monetary analysis1) Excluding money market fund shares.*) Percentage point contributions to annual growth of financial investment.
11 Integrating real and financial perspectives (NFC accumulation accounts : financing and investment) Bulk of capital formation financed internally (gross saving)*Role of equity financing modest (except )Linked to financial investment / M&AResurgence of debt financing after consolidationReduction of debt financing in credit crisisPercentage of GDP, four-quarter moving sum* Internal financing (gross saving) includes retained earnings and consumption offixed capital. It is broadly equivalent to earnings before depreciation but aftertaxes and dividend payments in business accounting.
12 Changes in 2014: The new ECB MUFA Guideline New financial instrument and sub-sector details due toSNA 2008 and ESA 2010MUFA Guideline (quarterly), ESA TP (annual) and G-20 Financial accounts template are harmonised to a large degreeAdditional user needs for quarterly Euro Area AccountsPublication of Euro Area Aggregates at t+90=> transmission of selected “supplementary” qFA data at t+85 (82)Publication of national data=> second transmission of detailed (revised) qFA at t+100 (97)Other changes in volume and revaluations for all instrumentsWhom-to-whom for securities (in addition to deposits and loans)(See Annex 1 for more details)
13 Euro Area Accounts Overview Thank you for your attention!Any questions?
15 Annex 2: Additional examples of uses - ESRB : Households’ debt-to-gross disposable income ratio Notes: Gross disposable income adjusted for the change in net equity of households and pension fund reserves. For Luxembourg, the first observation refers to 2008.For Bulgaria the last observation refers to For Cyprus, Estonia, Greece, Hungary, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Latvia, Romania, Slovakia and Slovenia the last observation refers to Data for Malta and Croatia are not available.
17 Households gross disposable income Source ECB/Eurostat
18 Annex 3: Where to find? ECB Website: Euro Area Accounts in Statistics : EAA HomepageSDW Tables and downloadsMOBU Tables: Integrated economic and financial accounts by institutional sector, euro area non-financial accounts, households, non-financial corporations, insurance corporations and pension funds, and all euro area accounts time seriesEAA Detailed Tables: Main indicators, integrated economic accounts, institutional sectors, and who-to whom detailCountry Tables : Euro area and other EU countriesPress releases : EAA – press releaseArticlesMOBU Article 2007 NovemberMOBU Article 2011 October