Presentation on theme: "Gabriel Quirós Head of Macroeconomics Statistics Division European Central Bank Quarterly Integrated Euro Area Accounts Joint ECB NBRM Seminar on Statistics."— Presentation transcript:
Gabriel Quirós Head of Macroeconomics Statistics Division European Central Bank Quarterly Integrated Euro Area Accounts Joint ECB NBRM Seminar on Statistics Skopje, 4 October 2013 ECB-RESTRICTED FINAL
2 Euro Area Accounts Why: ECB as a key user of statistics What are the EAA? How: Integration of data sources Results + Uses Annexes: 1 New ECB Guideline: Changes from Additional examples of uses 3 Links to data and publications
Governing Council takes monetary policy decisions based on an overall assessment of the risks to price stability Monetary analysis (medium to long-term trends in inflation) Economic and financial information cross- checking Primary objective of price stability (annual increase in HICP of close but below 2% over the medium term) Economic analysis focusing on a wide range of economic and financial indicators (short to medium- term risks to price stability) An evidence-based decision-making requires a large amount of high quality European statistics ECB as key user of European statistics 4
What are the EAA ? Synopsis of inputs + outputs 5 Euro Area Building blocks : - BoP - MFI - IF + FVC - ICPF - GFS National non-financial accounts Other : BoP-euro area European Institutions (ECB, ESM ) Quarterly Eurostat Press Releases on Household saving + Business Investment Quarterly ECB Press Release on Economic and Financial Developments National Financial Accounts Financial Accounts Non- Financial Accounts Integrated Euro Area Accounts
6 What are the EAA? Giving Indicators an Accounting Framework GDP M3 HH Consumption Gov Deficit Gov Debt
Integrating data sources: National data and euro area building blocks The euro area accounts integrate a large number of different data sources Non-financial sector accounts Financial accounts: The ECB “MUFA” Guideline Building blocks: –Balance of Payments (BoP) –MFI Balance Sheet Items (BSI) –Quarterly Financial Accounts for General Government (QFAGG) –… 7
8 Monetary Union Financial Accounts (MUFA) are compiled by combining national data - coming through the ECB MUFA Guideline - and euro area financial building blocks Which criteria are followed when deciding the source for each cell in the matrix ? –Data reliability –User needs and preferences –Minimize horizontal imbalances –Future development of the accounts, in particular in terms of timeliness The MUFA Guideline and building blocks
9 Data sources: National financial accounts and building blocks (BSI, BOP, QFAGG)
10 Uses – some example: Enriching monetary analysis Financial investment by households Annual growth rate Value of analysing M3 developments by institutional sector Closer link between M3 holdings by households and price developments (but headline M3 still better predictor of turning- points) Looking at M3 against total financial investment / broader portfolio of assets Role of OFIs and ICPFs for financial intermediation & monetary analysis 1) Excluding money market fund shares. *) Percentage point contributions to annual growth of financial investment.
11 Integrating real and financial perspectives (NFC accumulation accounts : financing and investment) * Internal financing (gross saving) includes retained earnings and consumption of fixed capital. It is broadly equivalent to earnings before depreciation but after taxes and dividend payments in business accounting. Bulk of capital formation financed internally (gross saving)* Role of equity financing modest (except ) Linked to financial investment / M&A Resurgence of debt financing after consolidation Reduction of debt financing in credit crisis Percentage of GDP, four-quarter moving sum
12 Changes in 2014: The new ECB MUFA Guideline New financial instrument and sub-sector details due to SNA 2008 and ESA 2010 MUFA Guideline (quarterly), ESA TP (annual) and G-20 Financial accounts template are harmonised to a large degree Additional user needs for quarterly Euro Area Accounts Publication of Euro Area Aggregates at t+90 => transmission of selected “supplementary” qFA data at t+85 (82) Publication of national data => second transmission of detailed (revised) qFA at t+100 (97) Other changes in volume and revaluations for all instruments Whom-to-whom for securities (in addition to deposits and loans) (See Annex 1 for more details)
13 Euro Area Accounts Overview Thank you for your attention! Any questions?
14 Annex 1: New ECB Guideline: Changes from 2014
Annex 2: Additional examples of uses - ESRB : Households’ debt-to-gross disposable income ratio 15 Notes: Gross disposable income adjusted for the change in net equity of households and pension fund reserves. For Luxembourg, the first observation refers to For Bulgaria the last observation refers to For Cyprus, Estonia, Greece, Hungary, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Latvia, Romania, Slovakia and Slovenia the last observation refers to Data for Malta and Croatia are not available.
16 Net worth of households Source ECB/Eurostat
17 Households gross disposable income Source ECB/Eurostat
18 Annex 3: Where to find? ECB Website: Euro Area Accounts in Statistics : EAA HomepageEAA Homepage SDW Tables and downloads MOBU Tables: Integrated economic and financial accounts by institutional sector, euro area non-financial accounts, households, non- financial corporations, insurance corporations and pension funds, and all euro area accounts time seriesIntegrated economic and financial accounts by institutional sectoreuro area non-financial accountshouseholdsnon- financial corporationsinsurance corporations and pension fundsall euro area accounts time series EAA Detailed Tables: Main indicators, integrated economic accounts, institutional sectors, and who-to whom detailMain indicatorsintegrated economic accounts institutional sectorswho-to whom detail Country Tables : Euro area and other EU countriesEuro area other EU countries Press releases : EAA – press releaseEAA – press release Articles MOBU Article 2007 November MOBU Article 2011 October