Presentation on theme: "topics Burmese energy sector (compiled by MEE NET)"— Presentation transcript:
1Energy workshop for groups working on Burma: Thai and Burmese energy sector
2topics Burmese energy sector (compiled by MEE NET) Structure of Thai power sectorCentralized structure and its problemsGovernance issuesConsumption patternsPDP, load forecast, over-investmentDecentralized generationRenewable energy (target, VSPP regulations)
3Infographic about Burma’s Power sector Burma Power SectorInfographic about Burma’s Power sectorLinksDecision Making StructureActorsGeneration mix
4Decision Making Structure The electricity system is centralized and under the control and management of the government and state enterprises.Ministry of Electricity Power 2Gas-fired Thermal power plantTransmission & Distribution SystemLink to See StructureMinistry of Electricity Power 1Hydropower & Coal Fired power plantsLink to See StructureDpt. Of Electric PowerDpt. of Hydropower PlanningDpt. of Hydropower ImplementationHydropower Generation EnterpriseMyanmar Electricity Power EnterpriseGeneration,Transmission & Distribution SystemElectric Supply EnterpriseYangon City Electricity Supply Board (YESB)Ministry of Electricity Power established in 1997 and in 2006 was restructured and separated into 2 ministries:Ministry of Electricity power 1 (MOEP-1) takes responsibilities for:- Planning and Development of new hydropower plants and also operation and maintenance of hydropower stations and coal fired power plants.- Selling electricity to Ministry of Electricity power 2
5Decision Making Structure (Con’t) Ministry of Electricity power 2 (MOEP-2) in charge of transmission and distribution of electricity generated by Ministry of Electricity power 1Myanmar Electric Power Enterprise (MEPE) is a State own enterprise established in It is an implementing agency responsible for power generation, transmission and distribution throughout the country.- Thermal power plants: Operation and maintenance of Gas Turbine Power Stations and Combined Cycle Power Plants- Construction of Transmission, Distribution and substationYangon City Electricity Supply Board (YESB) was formed in 2005 and is tasked with approving businesses to supply electricity in areas that cannot be fully supplied.Other ministries and authorities involved with the energy is as follows:Ministry of Energy and Myanmar Oil and Gas Enterprise (MOGE) in charge of Oil and Gas managementMinistry of Mines in charge of Coal businessMinistry of Forestry is responsible for Biomass and Fuel WoodMinistry of Science and Technology is responsible for Renewable Energy
6Actors in the Power Sector MOPE-1Hydropower, CoalMEPEGas Turbine, CCPPIPPsSmall privatesGenerationTransmissionMEPE & MOEP-2MEPESmall PrivatesDistributionExport toIndia, ChinaDomestic CustomerTransmission system is under the control of the MEPE and MOEP-2. They will finance, construct and operate the transmission system. MEPE distributes electricity through the national grid to 5 states and 6 divisions. IPPs cannot own transmission lines. However, about private participation, private sector has been allowed to cooperate with MOEP-1, MOEP-2 and MEPE in generation, distribution, sale and service. IPPs can jointly invest with the ministries. Small generator enterprises can supply power to consumers.
8Generation MixHydropower is the main fuel source in the country. In 2008, electricity generated from hydroelectricity was 60.83% of total generation. Gas and steam power are the second ranked fuel used.Currently, there are the following power projects:-14 Hydropower stations-10 gas turbine and thermal power plants-1 Coal fired power station
9Electricity Installed Capacity and Peak Demand 200020012002200320042005200620072008Installed Capacity9761008.51038.51546.91571.91719.9Peak Demand721.1692.5701.2708.3864966.4995.710051061.2Per capita electricity consumption75.4368.6878.0685.5386.3581.0092.1994.0092.80Source : Myanmar Ministry of ElectricityWorld Bank, World Development IndicatorsFrom the figures, it is clear that there is a gap between installed capacity and highest demand for electricity. This can be due to a number of factors including the low efficiency of power plants in generating power. Another possible reason is that power generated is also exported to neighboring countries (peak demand in the graph is only an indicator for domestic demand).
11Trans-Burma dual pipelines construction begin soon
12Dynamics of Electricity Sector After Burma attained independence in 1948, the government established the Electricity Supply Board in 1951 and thus began the government’s monopoly on utilities (before that, some local business were able to generate electricity).In 1972, Electricity Supply Board was reorganized to become the ‘Electricity Power Corporation (EPC). The Ministry of Energy was also formed in 1985 as was responsible for the oil and gas sectors as well as for electricity generation and distribution.Ultimately, on the 15th of November 1997, under the State Law and Order Restoration Council, the Ministry of Electricity Power was established. The Myanmar Electric Power Enterprise (MEPE) was also formed at this time.MEPE continues to serve as the State utility company while the the Ministry restructured into to two ministries, the Ministry of Electricity Power (1) and (2). See Burma Power SectorSteps towards PrivatizationIn late November 2005, to meet increasing demands from new satellite towns and industrial zones, the government started to allow private agencies to supply electricity. Under the Yangon City Electricity Supply Board Law, small businesses in Yangon can generate and sell power to consumers. However, once implemented the government encountered protests from consumers who faced high costs from small generators fueled by an expensive commodity, oil. In addition, generators and other suppliers also faced higher costs once they had to conform to standards set by the government.Though the government has allowed for private investments, the main generation plants and the entire transmission system are still under the control of Burma’s government.
13Burma Power PolicyBurma’s economic development strategies, especially in its energy sector are driven by centralized government decision-making. The Burmese domestic energy market is influenced both by regional and international investment flows from major regional states looking for energy resources.Burma’s natural resource rich country including an abundance of gas and oil reserves and high hydropower potential are being exploited. Investors from the region including Thailand, China, South Asian Countries, South Korean, and the GMS countries are all involved in extractive industries within the country. In addition to reaping high profits from these trade opportunities, the government is also using the investment ventures as useful tools in its battle with minority ethnic groups who currently occupy large swathes of resource rich lands. In the name of development, the government has been expelling the groups from construction sites and economic development zones.Though the Burmese government claims that energy sector development is vital for meeting the population’s basic needs and overall development strategy, Burma’s electrification rate is very low, even after years of resource exploitation. In 2008, 42.8 Million of Burma’s million population lived without electricity. Or, according to UN statistics, only 5% of all Burmese citizens have access to electricity even though the government’s stated goal is to increase electrification rates to 60% by 2020.During , Burma’s energy sector plans to continue oil and gas pipeline construction, oil and gas extraction plans, hydroelectric power development, and transmission line construction both for domestic use and for regional interconnection plans.LinksPower Planning SubpageDynamics of Electricity Sector Subpage
14Burma Power PlanningIn order to achieve its economic and social development plans of 12% annual GDP Growth, Burma’s Fourth Short-Term Five-Year Plan (2006/ /2011) was formulated to meet this stated target. One of power-related objectives in the five year plan is ‘To develop electric power and energy sector to be in conformity with developing trend industries’.In addition, specific Long-term Policy for the Energy Sector is as follows:Sustainable use of natural resources to support the economic growth in a sustainable manner;Efficient utilization of available energy resources;Smooth and reliable energy supplies for building a modem agro industrial based nation;A well balanced use of energy resources by the creation of an equal distribution of the share of various primary energy sources for conservation;Promoting the development and utilization of all available renewable energy resources;Creating an attractive base for further investment in energy and energy related ventures.Regional policy and cooperation in infrastructure development in order to support investment and trade in the region results in theGovernment’s plans for near term cross-country cooperation activities as follows:Linked infrastructure including hydropower power plants, power lines, pipelines and supporting road networksShared infrastructure including road s, channels for navigations, bridges and etc.Shared link or independent infrastructure for import and export of oil, gas petrochemicals and other related productsMyanmar Electric Power Enterprise (MEPE), a state-owned enterprise, has been distributing electricity generated by major hydropower and gas turbine stations. The national grid supplies 94 % of the nation’s power needs while another 6% comes from off-grid isolated energy sources. MEPE’s objectives for the country’s development is as follows:Developing Hydropower for base load and gas turbine for peak loadIn order to optimize the use of natural gas by gas turbine, combined cycle power plants are implementedTo expand the national gridTo revive the study of alternative production of electricity by using waste products including rice husks, etc. Using electricity by firing boilers to generate electricity meeting local requirements instead of utilizing the main grid’s power is encouragedTo reduce loss of electricity incurred from transmission and distributionIn remote areas where electricity from hydropower through the national grid cannot be utilized, the generation and distribution of electricity will be performed by diesel generating sets, wind and solar facilitates
15Burma Power Planning (Con’t) Power Development Plans and Transmission Interconnection ProjectsAccording to its power demand forecast,in 2030, Burma will have a peak demand of7, MW (peak demand in 2008 was1,061.2 MW).During , several projects will beDeveloped. At present, 19 hydroelectric powerprojects are under construction. Furthermore,18 cross border hydropower power projectsare currently being planned through investments by companies and/or stateowned enterprises from China, Thailand and India. If these projects are completed, their total installed capacity will rise to 19,413 MW. Meanwhile, in 2009 Burma current installed capacity is only 2,255.9 MW.Transmission systemTo facilitate power transmission, during , the government plans to construct 62 transmission lines throughout Burma in the near future (at present, transmission lines are in operation )
16Infographic about Thailand’s Power sector Thailand Power SectorInfographic about Thailand’s Power sectorLinksDecision Making StructureActorsGeneration mix
17Decision Making Structure Thailand has Centralized Electricity Structure. Policy determination and planning including systemoperation are in hands of the government and the state owned enterprise; the Ministry of Energy and the Electricity Generation Authority of Thailand (EGAT).EPPO and EGAT are responsible for electricity supply planning.DEDE is mainly responsible for alternative energy developmentERC was established in 2009, as an independent authority, to regulate and ensure efficiency and transparency of electricity management, review final draft PDP, license to power producersCabinetNational Energy Policy Committee (NEPC)Energy Regulatory Commission (ERC)Ministry of EnergyEGATEnergy Policy and Planning Office (EPPO)PTT Public Co., Ltd. (State Enterprise)Dpt. of Alternative Energy Development and Efficiency (DEDE)Bangchak Petroleum Pub Co., Ltd. (State Enterprise)Dpt. of Energy BusinessEnergy Fund Administration Institute (EFAI) (Public Organization)Dpt. of Mineral Fuels
18Actors in Power Sector Generation Power Purchaser, System Operation, SPPsIPPsEGAT Power PlantsREGULATOPower Purchaser,System Operation,and TransmissionPower PurchaseSystem OperationTransmissionBulk Power SupplyEGATEnergy Regulatory Commission (ERC)Distribution/Retail SupplyPEAMEAEnd UsersEnd UsersVSPPDirectCustomersUnder Thailand ‘Enhanced Single Buyer Structure’, all producers have to sell electricity to EGAT that holds a monopoly over the transmission system. EGAT then sells power to MEA and PEA for distribution to consumers. Only a small amount of consumers directly purchase electricity rom EGAT/ IPPs/ SPPs, most of them are industries. In addition, ERC serves as a regulator in the system.
19Generation MixThailand uses natural gas as its major fuel to generate electricity, 72.5% in Lignite and coal are used 11% and 8.4% respectively.Installed generating capacity from April until August in 2010 reached 30, MW. In 2009, the installed capacity was 29, MW. Share of Power Generation by Fuel Type January to October 2010 The accumulated power generation from January to October is 134, GWh. At the end of 2008, the generation reached 148, Meanwhile, in 2009, the total generation was 145, GWh which represents a decrease between 2008 and 2009 of 2.04%. Peak Demand of 2010 happened in May, at 24,009.9 MW whereas in 2008 and 2009 peak demands were 22,045 MW and 22,568.9 MW respectively.
20Thailand Power PolicyOverview Thailand’s power policy is driven by two key factors: continued economic growth driven by the industrial sector and energy sector financiers as well as ambitious plans to be the energy leader in the region. Thailand’s stated goal of being the “Hub of the ASEAN Grid” is at the core of its energy investments. Thailand’s centralized power planning structure emphasizes increasing energy supplies to meet expected demands. These needs can only be met through continued investments in large scale power projects both domestically as well as in neighboring countries. Power planning also includes expectations that the regional transmission network will be realized allowing for both exports and imports of electricity with neighboring countries. International concern about climate change is also playing a role in Thailand’s power development plans. By pledging to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in the energy sector by 30% by 2020, Thailand is planning on increased investments in nuclear power projects, hydropower projects and the promotion of Clean Development Mechanism projects. Meanwhile, renewable energy development, Energy Efficiency and Demand-side management (DSM) are not adequately being promoted by the government. Links Power Planning History of Electricity Reform
21Power Planning Sub page The centralized government planning process and the National Economic and Social Development Plan in addition to regional development and power development plans are crucial in Thailand’s power sector planning.The National Economic and Social Development Plan such as Southern and Eastern Seaboard Development Projects, which are focused on heavy industries utilize large amounts of energy consumption and require infrastructure development that includes huge power plants. beenMoreover, current ‘Framework of Thailand’s Power Strategies’ have also been devised by the government, Ministry of Energy andstate-owned enterprise Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand (EGAT) to include the following:Maintaining energy stability and security: supplying sufficient energy to meet demand, promoting public participation especially in national power planning process, preparing readiness for gas supplied emergencyRegulating energy businessesStrengthening energy utilities and authoritiesPromoting generation and supply of alternative energyReducing energy use and lower greenhouse gas emissionPower Development Plan (PDP)Thus far, Thailand electricity sector propelled byPDP 2010 ( ) ลิ้งค์ไปที่ PDP 2010,the latest 20 year PDP approved in early2010. It has been formulated according tothe Ministry of Energy’s framework with specificinvestment and projects as illustratedIn the figure on Installed Capacity classified byFuel Type for Combined-cycle gaspower plants are main source, followed bypower purchase from Laos and coal fired power plants.Importantly, the Ministry of Energy is adamant toconstruct nuclear power plantsEven while opposition exists from local people livingaround the proposed sites. Renewable energy willbe account for 7-8% of the generation during the ext 20 years. throughout 20 years.According to the plan, Thailand’s installed capacity will reach 65,547 MW whereas present installed capacity is 30, MWPDP 2010 : GDP (Base Case)DieselRenewable EnergyHeavy Fuel OilImportNatural GasImported CoalLigniteNuclearHydro
22Power Planning Sub page (Con’t) Arguments made during PDP 2010:Thailand’s civil society criticized the 2010 PDP approval process due to lack of transparency and genuine public participation. The national plan was approved by National Energy Policy Council during the chaotic political situation that occurred in April in Thailand.It is the first PDP covering a 20 year period (Previous plans last 5 years and 15 years). Therefore, long-term demand forecast and investment planning will be less accurate and err from the reality.Notably, even though Thailand’s PDP noted an aspiration to harmonize its renewable energy component with its Link to 15-year Alternative Energy Development Plan (AEDP), for , developed by Department of Alternative Energy Development and Efficiency under Ministry of Energy, this is not reflected in the official PDP. According to the AEDP, generation capacity from AEDP is to reach 5,608 MW, however the official PDP only includes plans to increase generation capacity from renewable energy sources to 4,049.5 MWUnenthusiastic promotion on renewable energy such as decreasing adders (money support per unit) for solar power and excuse that limitations on the transmission system to support electricity from any renewable energy sources for the national gridEGAT has tried to preserve major shares in the generation market by determining that EGAT’s proportion in new power plants must be at least 50%Process of PDP development and approval:EGAT draft and propose to Ministry of Energy and Energy Regulatory Commission to reviewApproval process by National Energy Policy Committee (NEPC) comprised of Ministers, representatives from the National Economic and Social Development Board while the Prime Minister serves as Chairman.PDP will be proposed to the Cabinet as a final stepIn addition to PDP and AEDP, the government had just conducted a preliminary study of a 20 year energy-saving plan, which aims to review potential of all sectors in reducing energy demand by 25 % by 2030.LINKSArticles
23History of Electricity Reform Subpage Thailand’s initial centralized economic and social planning saw electricity projects as basic investments providing Thai citizen’s with basic infrastructure to improve their livelihoods and to to drive economic growth. Mega projects including generation stations, hydropower, coal fired power projects and transmission system were constructed gradually. State Control The government decided that the most efficient model for managing the power sector was to establish its own state owned enterprise. This led in 1968, to the consolidation of regional state owned generating companies into a central national electricity termed the Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand (EGAT). The distribution networks, Metropolitan Electricity Authority (MEA) and Provincial Electricity Authority (PEA) were respectively set up in 1958 and MEA became responsible for power distribution in Bangkok and neighboring provinces while PEA was responsible for power distribution in the remaining provinces. By the end of the 1960s, the power system was centralized under EGAT and the two distribution companies. Privates allowed to generation In 1992, Independent Private Power Producers (IPPs) were allowed into the system through long term concessions operative power plants in accordance with Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs) with EGAT. EGAT continued to hold sole control over the transmission system operation. At the same time, the Thai government also launched a Small Power Producers (SPPs) program to promote the use of clean efficient energy or the use of renewable energy sources for domestic use. However, the plan was also criticized for the overwhelming preference for large industrial producers (who received SPP licenses) over smaller power producers including rural cooperatives, municipalities, hospitals. The first step of privatization was completed with the relaxation of power tariffs. At that time the National Energy Policy Office (under the Ministry of Energy today) believed that marketizing the power tariff would lead to lower tariffs over time. However, the marketization of power tariffs led to a rapid increase due to rising oil and gas prices at the same time.
24History of Electricity Reform Subpage (Con’t) ‘Privatization without Extensive Liberalization’In 2000, the second step of privatization involving the introduction of the power pool model along with the unbundling of the generation, transmission and distribution systems was introduced. These were in preparation for complete market competition in the power market by However, with such attempt, it was However, the attempt at privatization was not a success. Many arguments were raised by parties including academics and consumers that it was too risky to allow for a market mechanism to control prices, regulatory body, etc. Two other options were proposed introduced, EGAT proposed a Third Party Access Model which allows consumers to independently choose suppliers while Academics proposed Single Buyer Model which allows for public ownership of distribution and even transmission.Later, EGAT proposed a different model moving from ‘private sector participation competition to achieve efficiency’ to one that allows for ‘national efficiency and competitiveness and secure regional leadership” and ‘To build strong national champions in the energy sector’. Within this model, EGAT would need remain a large major player in order to compete against multinational energy companies in the region.‘National Champion’ and Enhanced Single Buyer (ESB) in the present modelUnder this proposed model EGAT can be the National Champion and maintain its monopoly position. This modelis different from a single buyer in which private entities have to compete with EGAT in generation but EGAT retains amonopoly on the transmission system and a majority of generation.EGAT had plans to reform itself into a private company, listing itself on the stock market to raise capital and expand inthe region. However, this plan finally failed in 2006.LINKSArticles
26... Steps involved to deliver electricity to end-users Fuel procurementPowerGenerationRetail, MeterReading,Billing &settlementTransmissionDistribution
27Structure of Thai power sector Generation(% share)SPPs(7%)EGAT(50%)IPPs(41%)Import(2%)VSPPs(<<1%)Govt.ERCEGAT (100%)SOTransmissionDistributionPEA(67%)MEA(31%)Direct Customers(2%)UsersUsersRemarks: - Figure of % Share in 2008- ERC = Energy Regulatory Commissionที่มา: EPPO Aug 2009
28Generation by fuel type Power generation (May 2009)Generation by fuel typeGeneration by sourcesOil, 0.1%Natural Gas,70%Hydro, 6%Coal & Lignite, 21%Import & Others, 3%IPP 12,151 MW (43%)EGAT, 13,615 MW (48%)SPP 2,073 MW (7%)Import & Exchange 640 MW (2%)Total: 28,482 MWที่มา: EPPO Aug 2009
29Power Supply Management Review the Power Development Plan (PDP) every 6 months to be in line with the changing demand situationMaintain the reserve margin to be no less than 15%Diversify fuel types in power generation:Give importance to SPPs and VSPPs using renewable energy as fuelStudy the feasibility of nuclear power generation.Promote Clean Coal Technology for coal-fired power generationInternational cooperation in power development projects:Power purchase from LPDR, Myanmar, China, Cambodia and Malaysiaที่มา: EPPO Aug 2009
30Overview of Electricity Generating Capacity PDP 2007 (Revision 2: @ Mar09) Installed capacity as at Dec ,140 MWTotal increased capacity ( ) 30,155 MW,605 MW,550 MWDecommissioned plants -7,502 MWTotal generating capacity up to ,792 MWComparison of New Generating Capacity by Source of Supply (in MW)YearPDP 2007Revision 1PDP 2007 Revision 2EGATIPPSPPPurchase from AbroadVSPPNew Projects4,6154,4001,1935,4733,7691,9852642,187-8,9001,4005758,6908,0001,6003002,8504,800Total Increased Capacity13,5155,8001,76814,16311,7696,0005645,03735,24630,155Difference of New Capacity when compared with PDP 2007 (Revision 1)- 5,091ที่มา: EPPO Aug 2009
31IPPs: 1st IPP Solicitation in 1994 7 Selected IPPs with PPA Signed IPP PlantLocationFuelGen. Capacity(MW)CODIPTAow Pay, ChonburiNatural Gas70015 Aug 2000TECORatchaburi1 Jul 2000Ratchburi Power1,400Unit 1: 1 Mar 2008Unit 2: 1 Jun 2008Gulf PowerKhaeng Koi, Saraburi1,468Unit 1: 1 Mar 2007Unit 2: 1 Mar 2008BLCPPluakdaeng,RayongCoal1,346.5Unit 1: 13 Aug 2006Unit 2: 14 Nov 2006Glow IPPBowin, Chonburi71331 Jan 2003EPECKlong Mai, Samut Prakarn35025 Mar 2003Total6,677.5ที่มา: EPPO Aug 2009
32IPPs: 2nd IPP Solicitation in 2007 4 Selected IPPs with PPA Signed IPP PlantProject’s ShareholderFuel TypeCapacity (MW)LocationSCODGHECO-OneGLOW IPP2: 65%Hemaraj: 35%Coal660RayongNov 2011National Power Supply (NPS)NPS: 99.99%6 Thai Individuals: 0.01%540ChachoengsaoNov 2012/Mar 2013Siam EnergyGulf JP: 99.94%6 Thai Individuals: 0.06%Gas1,600Mar 2012/Sep 2012Power Generation SupplyIndividual Investors: 0.06%SaraburiJun 2014/ Dec 2014Total4,400Remarks:7 Dec 07: NEPC approved the next IPP Solicitation for power procurement duringที่มา: EPPO Aug 2009
33Promotion of SPP/VSPP Power Generation Small Power Producer (SPP)/ Very Small Power Producer (VSPP):A generator of a private entity, state agency, state-owned enterprise, using cogeneration system or renewable energy, agricultural waste or residues, residues from agricultural or industrial production processes to produce electricity.SPP Sale of electricity to the Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand (EGAT), is >10 MW up to 90 MW.Firm contract: yearsNon-firm contract: 5 years and renewed automaticallyVSPP Sale of electricity to the Distribution Utility, i.e. Metropolitan Electricity Authority (MEA) and Provincial Electricity Authority (PEA), is no more than 10 MW.ที่มา: EPPO Aug 2009
34Fuel Diversification in Power Generation Oil, 0.1%Natural Gas,70%Hydro, 6%Coal & Lignite, 21%Import & Others, 3%Share of Power Generation by Fuel Type May 2009)Currently, Thailand’s power generation depends heavily on natural gas as fuel. - Efforts are being made to boost greater use of renewable energy as fuel.Status of Power Generation from Renewable Energy and Potential & Target in 2011Existing MWTarget MWPotential MWBiomassExisting 1,610 MWTarget ,800 MWPotential 4,400 MWWindExisting MWTarget MWPotential 1, MWHydro- Sugarcane industry, etc.- Biomass power plants- Community power plantsWind farm in southernThailandMini Hydro and Micro HydroExisting MWTarget MWPotential MWExisting MWTarget MWPotential 50,000 MWExisting MWTarget MWPotential MWBiogasSolar PVMSW- Urban areasSolar homesHis Majesty’s projects0.1% of installation areasBiogas from livestock farms and agro, palm industry- Bangkok 9,000 tons/day- Municipality 6,300 tons/day- Industry 1,000 tons/day(Data as at Jan2009)ที่มา: EPPO Aug 2009
35Power Purchase from Neighboring Countries Thailand has cooperated in hydropower development with neighboring countries, on a bilateral basis.MOUs on power purchase have been signed with Laos, China and Myanmar, with a total power purchase of 11,500 MW.MOUs on Power Purchase SignedCountrySigning DatePurchase Cap.(MW)Within YearLPDR22 Dec 20077,0002015Myanmar14 Jul 19971,5002010PR China12 Nov 19983,0002017Imported power being supplied to Thailand’s Grid:LPDR 313 MWMalaysia 300 MW [High Voltage Direct Current (HVDC)]ที่มา: EPPO Aug 2009
36Power Purchase from LPDR ProjectSale to Thailand (MW)COD1) Currently supplying power to Thailand1.1 Nam Theun-Hinboun18731 Mar 19981.2 Houay Hoa1263 Sep 1999Sub-total3132) PPA signed but not yet supplied power to Thailand2.1 Nam Theun 2920Dec 20092.2 Nam Ngum 2615Mar 20112.3 Theun-Hinboun Expansion220Mar 20121,7553) Tariff MOU signed3.1 Hongsa Lignite1,4732013GRAND TOTAL3,541Status as at Jun09.ที่มา: EPPO Aug 2009
37Power Purchase from Myanmar 14 Jul 1997: MOU on Power Purchase from Myanmar (~1,500 MW by 2010).30 Nov 2005: MOU on Cooperation in the Development of Power Projects on Thanlwin and Tanintharyi Rivers.Initially, Myanmar has proposed 2 power projects on Thanlwin River:(1) Hutgyi hydropower project, 1,200 MW(2) Tasang hydropower project, 7,000 MWAlso, Tariff MOU signed for Mai Khot coal-fired power project (369MW)Tasang7,000 MW(Other potential projects: Upper/Lower Thanlwin ,4, MW)Hutgyi1,200 MW(Tanintharyi600 MW)ที่มา: EPPO Aug 2009
38Power Purchase from Cambodia Feasibility study is being conducted on 2 potential projects:Strung Nam Hydropower Project MWKoh Kong Coal-fired Power Project 3,660 MWPower Purchase from MalaysiaThailand (EGAT) and Malaysia (TNB) have had power trade between each other since 1980, starting with 80 MW.Current trade: 300 MW via HVDC (High Voltage Direct Current) system.ที่มา: EPPO Aug 2009
39NPIEP Milestones for Nuclear Power Program Implementation (17 November 2007)NPIEP Milestones for Nuclear Power Program ImplementationNPI: Nuclear Power InfrastructureNPIEP: NPI Establishment PlanNPPDO: Nuclear Power Program Development OfficeNPP: Nuclear Power PlantNRB: Nuclear Regulatory Body1st Milestone2nd Milestone3rd MilestoneMS 0.1MS 0.2MS 1: Policy DecisionMS 2 : Call for BidsMS 3: Start OperationNuclear power option included in PDP2007To prepare for policy decisionKnowledgeable CommitmentFinancial CommitmentsCommissioning 1st NPPGO NUCLEARPhase 0.1: Preliminary PhaseNPIPC & 7 Sub-committees appointedIssues & Milestones consideredNPIEP preparedPhase 1: Pre-project Activity Phase- approve NPIEP- set up NPPDO- infrastructure work started- survey of potential sites- feasibility study completed- public information & participationPhase 2: Program Implementation Phase- implement NPIEP with Milestones- full NRB established- legislation & international protocols enacted- suitable sites for bid selected- technology/qualified suppliers selected- prepare to call bidsPhase 3: Construction Phase- NPIEP fully implemented- bidding process completed- design & engineering- manufacturing- construction & installation- test runs & inspectionNPP commissioning licensePhase 4: Operation Phase- commercial operation- O&M- planning for expansionindustrial and technology development plan1 year3 years3 years6 years20072008201120142020ที่มา: EPPO Aug 2009
41Centralized structure of electricity Conflicts are a result of centralized structure of controlLoss of livelihood/health/forests for local people for the benefits of others, mainly urban commercial and industrial interestsCentralized grid: in many cases, makes economic and technical sense, however…Control of a central grid need not be monopolized by one groupStructure of control determined by Cold War politics, not technical superiority
42Problems with centralized control (1) Separation of consumption and production leads to inefficient consumption“Out of sight, out of mind”Ratio of Power demand growth to GDP growth = 1.4Perverse incentives to exclude customer-owned generationThe more to invest, the more to profit.Small-scale, renewable generators lack accessEnergy conservation measures are viewed as a threat to EGAT’s profits.
45Choice of supply options considered in the PDP by EGAT 700 MW Coal-fired power plant700 MW gas-fired combined cycle plant230 MW gas-fired open cycle plant1,000 MW nuclear plantHydro imports are politically negotiated outside of PDP processDSM/EE, RE, Distributed generation not considered as supply options
46Centralized energy is also more costly ThailandPDP 2007 requires 2 trillion baht to implement, comprising:million Bgeneration 1,482,000transmission ,000Transmission adds 40% to generation costsDecentralized generation brings down costsIreland – retail costs for new capacity to 2021Source: World Alliance for Decentralized Energy, April 2005
47Centralized generation wastes a lot of energy (~70% of heat value is lost & adds to climate change problem)Combined cycle13,540 MW47.5 %Hydro3,424.2 MW12.0 %Thermal9,666.6 MW33.9 %Gas turbines, diesel971.4 MW3.4 %Hydro import1.2 %Renewables288.1 MW1.0 %Import from MalaysiaTotal at end of ,530.3 MWInstalled capacity by types of generation in 2007Loss in conversion process61%Station use (in power plants)1%Loss in transmission3%Loss in distribution5-8%Useful electricity to end-users<30%
48Problems with centralized control (2) Lack of accountability, transparency, participation in centralized planning processesPolitical decisions masked in technical language“Big is beautiful”, fossil fuels dominateSocial and environmental concerns are ignored“Cost plus” incentive structurepasses risks to consumers“Overcapacity worth 400 billion Baht” (from total assets of 700 billion Baht and annual turnover of 240 billion Baht)– Prime Minister Thaksin Shinwatra
50Energy policy and its impacts on share prices of energy companies in the stock market The coup-installed government announced its policy on energy investment opportunities on 3 Oct 2006Energy policy, PDP approval and IPP bidding resulted in significant windfall benefits for selected companies1 year later, the share prices of companies benefiting from the PDP jumped 66% (other companies had a 8.7% rise)
51Change in energy companie’s share prices within 1 yr
52Conflict of interest : policy v business Board of directorsPermanent secretary of ministry of energyChairman of PTTChairman of EGATBoard member of PTT chemicalChairman of Rayong refineryDirector general,Energy fuelDep. permanent secretaryBoard member of Thai oilDep. permanent secretaryBoard member of RATCHDep. permanent secretaryBoard member of PTTEPDirector general of energy businessBoard member of PTTDirector general of Department of Alternative Energy Development and Efficiency energyBoard member of RATCHDirector of Energy Policy and Planning officialBoard member of PTTEPSenior official of ministry of energyBoard member of Aromatics PLCSenior official of ministry of energyBoard member of Bang chakBoard member of RATCHBoard member of Ratchaburi generation companySenior official of ministry of energy52
53Performance of high-level energy officials in serving the government vs. PTT Plc. (Thai gas/oil utility, the largest list company in Thailand)Attendance of PTT board meetings*Attendance of Automatic tariff (Ft) mechanism mtgs**Permanent secretary13/134/6Director of EPPO8/95/6100%67%90%83%*จากรายงานประจำปีบมจ. ปตท. ปี 2546**ตั้งแต่มีการปรับองค์ประกอบคณะอนุกรรมการ Ft โดยแต่งตั้งให้นายเชิดพงษ์เป็นประธาน และนายเมตตาเป็นรองประธาน (ปลายปี 46)Government officials serve energy companies better than the Thai public?53
54Structure reform of power sector proposed by Thai civil society กฟผ. (โรงไฟฟ้าพลังความร้อน)~ 15,000 MWไฟฟ้าพลังงานหมุนเวียน /ชุมชนท้องถิ่น /รายย่อย/ cogenสัญญาซื้อขายไฟฟ้า(IPP/Egco/Ratch/SPP)~ 10,000 MWโรงไฟฟ้าใหม่การไฟฟ้าฝ่ายระบบส่งระบบส่งศูนย์ควบคุมระบบเขื่อนการไฟฟ้าฝ่ายจำหน่าย (กฟน./กฟภ.)จัดหา/ค้าปลีกไฟฟ้า *ระบบจำหน่ายความต้องการที่เพิ่มขึ้น (บ้าน/รายเล็ก/อื่นๆ )ความต้องการที่เพิ่มขึ้น (รายใหญ่)* ในกรณีชุมชน/องค์กรท้องถิ่น มีความพร้อมและความสนใจ ให้สามารถใช้สิทธิในการจัดการและจัดหาไฟฟ้าได้เองโดย กฟน./กฟภ. ทำหน้าที่เป็นเพียงผู้ให้บริการระบบสายจำหน่าย แต่ไม่ผูกขาดสิทธิในการจัดหาความต้องการใช้ไฟฟ้าในปัจจุบัน~ 19,000 MWรัฐรัฐ/เอกชนองค์กรกำกับดูแลอิสระ
56Electrical consumption by sector in 2007 Others 5%Residential 21%Industrial 49%Commercial25%การใช้พลังงานไฟฟ้าแยกตามประเภทผู้ใช้133,132 GWhที่มา กฟผ.
57การกระจายตัวของการใช้ไฟฟ้าแยกตามพื้นที่ Distribution of electricity consumption by region SouthNorthNortheastCentralSource: Figure 19, Statistical Report Fiscal Year 2003 Power Forecast and Statistics Analysis Department System Control and Operation Division. Report No. SOD-FSSR
58Comparison of electricity consumption of three big malls vs Comparison of electricity consumption of three big malls vs. 16 provincesSiam ParagonGWh123MBK81278GWhCentral World75ที่มา: การไฟฟ้านครหลวง 2549ที่มา: พพ. รายงานการใช้ไฟฟ้า ปี 2549
59Siam Paragon MBK Pak Mun Central World 65 Dams Malls Province Electricity productionand consumption(GWh)MBK1238175Siam ParagonCentral WorldImpacts of Pak Mun Dam alone1700 familiesrelocatedLoss of livelihoodfor >6200 familiesLoss of 116fish species (44%)Fishery yielddown 80%Source: MEA, EGAT, Searin, Graphic: Green World FoundationPak Mun65MaeHongSongDams Malls Province59
60การกระจายของจำนวนผู้ใช้ไฟและปริมาณการใช้ไฟฟ้า Distribution of number of power users & energy consumedAgricultural pumpingGovernmentSpecific businessesLarge industrial/commercial)Small industrial/commercialSmall industrial/commercialLarge houses (>150 kWh/mo)Small houses (<150 kWh/mo)Number of customersElectricity consumptionที่มา : รายงานการปรับโครงสร้างอัตราค่าไฟฟ้า (มติ ค.ร.ม. วันที่ 3 ตุลาคม 2543)
61"Nature has enough for our need, but not enough for our greed." - Gandhi"Nature has enough for our need, but not enough for our greed." -- Ghandi6161
62Hourly Power Demand (2002)> 1,000 MW in 66 hours
68Power Demand: Projections vs Power Demand: Projections vs. Actual 1992 – 2008 If no systemic bias, the chance of over-projecting demand 12 times in a row should be 1/4096!!MW
69Incentive structure for utilities: the more expansion, the more profits Financial criteria for utilities link profits to investmentsThailand uses outdated return-based regulationWB’s promoted financial criteria such as self financing ratio (SFR) also have similar effectsROIC (Return on Invested Capital means: the more you invest, the more profitsROIC = Net profit after taxInvested capitalEGAT 8.4%MEAPEA4.8%Result :Demand forecast have systemic bias toward over-projectionsToo many expensive power projects get built
70Cycle of over-expansion under the centralized monopoly system Deterministic planning basedon demand forecast leadsto over-investmentin capital-intensivepower projectsPower demand(over-)projections12Utilities’Profits3Tariff structure that allows pass-throughof unnecessary investments
71Comparison of trend lines with historical peak consumption ExponentialLinearPast demand trajectory was linear but how come the official demand projections have always assumed exponential trend and over-estimated?
72The government forecast was based on the assumption of exponential growth 21 power plants
76Cost estimate (Baht/kWh) Supply optionsCost estimate (Baht/kWh)GenerationTransmission1Distribution2CO2 3Other envi impacts 4Social impactsTotalDSM0.50 – 1.505-SPPcogeneration(PES > 10%)2.60 60.440.080.713.83VSPP(Renewable)Bulk supply tariff(~ 2.62) +Adder(0.3 – 8)0 – 0.630 – low2.92 – 10.62gas CC2.25 70.370.090.79low – medium3.93Coal2.11 70.152.76High5.82Nuclear2.087–7.308High – very highหมายเหตุ ใช้สมมติฐานว่าต้นทุนร้อยละ 12.4 ของค่าไฟฟ้ามาจากธุรกิจสายส่ง2. ใช้สมมติฐานว่าต้นทุนร้อยละ 14.5 ของค่าไฟฟ้ามาจากธุรกิจจำหน่าย3. ค่า CO2 ที่ 10 ยูโร/ตัน4. ค่า Externality ตามการศึกษา Extern E ของสหภาพยุโรป และนำมาปรับลดตามค่า GDP ต่อหัวของไทยThe World Bank, Impact of Energy Conservation, DSM and Renewable Energy Generation on EGAT’s PDP,6. ตามระเบียบ SPP7. ที่มา : กฟผ.8. California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC), 2050 Multi-Sector CO2 Emissions Abatement Analysis Calculator, 20099. Cost of liability protection, Journal “Regulation” 2002 – 2003.
77Time to review gov’t subsidy to polluting industries with low value added to economy and low competitiveness?BOI investment privileges should take into account energy and environmental considerationsHigh energy intensityLow value addedLow competitiveness
78Macroeconomic Analysis Office of the National Economic and Social Development BoardO F F I C E O F T H E P R I M E M I N I S T E RLow Quality EducationLow Quality labourEnabling factors:MACROECONOMICMANAGEMENTLowValue CreationHighImport Contents& Sheer size ofexport to GDPEnergy Intensity& Low Efficiency& Unsustainablestructure(Low margin/return)Low Quality for Raw-material, machinery and equipmentInsufficient in R&D InvestmentNo immunity/ High volatility Financial SystemLack of SavingLack of regulation on industrial product’s quality controlLow Basic infrastructure and Logistic developmentSlow Technology Development
79Decentralized generation Decentralized generation: generation of electricity near where it is used
87Very Small Power Producer (VSPP) These Thai policymakers also knew that rice mills had a lot of waste rice husk. Pig farms have a lot of manure. Sugar factories have sugar cane bagasse. Sawmills have wood scraps. Each of these is a renewable energy source that can contribute to the national power mix, but only if generators have a market for their power. Selling to the national grid is a perfect market because it’s there 24 hours a day.8787
88$VSPP regulations essentially have two components: a set of technical regulations that provide for a safe flow of electricity from these generators to the national grid;and a set of commercial regulations regarding the flows of money to the VSPP generators.88
89$ Technical regulations: Allowable voltage, frequency, THD variations Protective relays1-line diagrams for all cases:InductionSynchronousInvertersSingle/multipleConnecting at different voltage levels (LV or MV)Communication channelsCommercial regulations:Definitions of renewable energy, and efficient cogenerationCost allocationPrinciple of standardized tariff determinationInvoicing and payment arrangementsArbitrationTechnical regulations include topics like allowable voltage, frequency variations and specify required protective relays. The commercial regulations focus on how costs are allocated, how tariff amounts are determined, and what happens in the event of disputes.A standardized PPA eliminates lengthy case-by-case negotiations with utilities.89
90Evolution of Thai VSPP regulations 2002VSPP regulations drafted, approved by CabinetUp to 1 MW export, renewables onlyTariffs set at avoided cost (bulk supply tariff + FT)2006Up to 10 MW export, renewables + cogenerationFeed-in tariff “adder”If > 1 MW then utility only pays for 98% of energy2009Tariff adder increase, more for projects that offset dieselThe Thai regulations were approved in Projects were allowed to come into the program as long as they used reenewable energy and they exported less than 1 MW.The tariffs were essentially set at the cost per kWh that Thailand’s distribution utilities pay for power they buy from EGAT.In 2006 the utilities felt comfortable enough with the initial VSPP projects to allow an increase in project size to 10 MW export and efficient cogeneration was also allowed. The government also recognized that VSPP could play a larger role in meeting the nation’s commitment of 8% renewable energy by the year 2011 (recently raised to 20% by year 2022). The upgrade to the regulations also created a technology-specific feed-in tariff subsidy adder.In 2009 the feed-in tariff was changed to provide additional payments for projects that offset diesel generation, which is still used in Thailand in some remote mountain and island areas.English versions of the Thai regulations are available at this website:for English version of regulations, and model PPA90
91Thai VSPP feed-in tariffs FuelAdderAdditional for diesel offsetting areasAdditional for 3 southern provincesYears effectiveBiomassCapacity <= 1 MW$$7Capacity > 1 MW$Biogas<= 1 MW> 1 MWWaste (community waste, non-hazardous industrial and not organic matter)Fermentation$Thermal process$Wind<= 50 kW$$10> 50 kWMicro-hydro50 kW - <200 kW$<50 kW$Solar$This table shows the current VSPP tariffs. Tariffs have evolved to vary depending on:Fuel typeGeographic location (more for provinces in 3 conflict-prone southern provinces)Whether or not the project offsets dieselCapacityThe total tariff is equal to this adder pluse the utility’s avoided cost of power.Ultimately consumers pay for the adder through a per-kWh pass-through mechanism to all consumers.Assumes exchange rate 1 Thai baht = U.S. dollarsTariff = adder(s) + bulk supply tariff + FT chargeBiomass tariff = $ $ $ = $0.085/kWh91
92Korat Waste to Energy – biogas … an early Thai VSPP project Uses waste water from cassava to make methaneProduces gas for all factory heat (30 MW thermal) + 3 MW of electricity3 x 1 MW gas generatorsHere are some of VSPP projects in operation in Thailand. Thailand is the world’s second largest producer of Cassava, much of which is turned into tapioca flower. The process generates waste water that, when digested, makes a lot of methane. The digester is a covered lagoon the size of a couple football fields – here you can see the lagoon’s black plastic cover. Methane provides thermal energy and electricity for the tapioca factory and excess is sold to the grid under the VSPP program.9292
93Biogas from Pig Farms Reduces air and water pollution Produces fertilizerProduces electricity8 x 70 kW generatorRatchaburiBiogas from Pig Farms9393
94Biogas from Pig Farms5000 pigs $31 / day elec.94
95Micro hydropower 40 kW Mae Kam Pong, Chiang Mai, Thailand This community run 40 kW micro-hydro project produces about $13,000 per year worth of electricity in the VSPP program.40 kWMae Kam Pong, Chiang Mai, Thailand95
96Rice husk-fired power plant 9.8 MWRoi Et, ThailandIn Thailand there are many rice mills. This is a 9.8 MW SPP that burns rice husk to generate electricity with a steam turbine.96
97Bangkok Solar 1 MW PV Project size: 1 MW Uses self-manufactured a-Si Feed-in tariffs have helped strengthen a burgeoning solar electric manufacturing industry in Thailand. This 1 MW plant uses solar panels manufactured in Thailand.97
98Thai VSPP MW applied, received permission, PPA signed, and selling – as of September 2009 Industry has responded strongly to the Thai VSPP program. This chart gives some indication of the pipeline of projects. The columns on the right are MW of VSPP generators that are currently online. There are over 100 projects with a combined capacity of over 725 MW. PPAs have been signed for over 2600 MW. Over 4000 MW have been approved. And over 7200 MW have applied. Clearly not all of the projects that have applied will end up being built, but at the very least it indicates considerable interest by industry.For reference, Thailand’s 2009 peak load was a bit over 22,000 MW. Cambodia’s peak load in 2007 of 262 MW is shown as this blue square..98