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Kyoto and Beyond : Evolution of Multilateral Agreements on Climate Change Updated September 8, 2009 ISCIENCES, LLC.

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Presentation on theme: "Kyoto and Beyond : Evolution of Multilateral Agreements on Climate Change Updated September 8, 2009 ISCIENCES, LLC."— Presentation transcript:

1 Kyoto and Beyond : Evolution of Multilateral Agreements on Climate Change Updated September 8, 2009 ISCIENCES, LLC

2 1. The Kyoto Protocol: What is it? 2. Pre-Kyoto Entry into Force 1970s-1980s 4. Kyoto 2005-2008 The Kyoto Protocol Past, Present, and Future 5. 2009 and Beyond 3. Pre-Kyoto Entry into Force 1990s-2005

3 What is the Kyoto Protocol? A multilateral environmental agreement with the goal of reducing global greenhouse gas emissions. Developed countries are assigned limits on emissions relative to 1990 levels. Targets vary by nation. First commitment period is 2008-2012. (Target status).(Target status). The Protocol has “Flexibility Mechanisms” for meeting targets: emissions trading and Clean Development Mechanisms (CDM).

4 Essential Points of Understanding The United Nations Framework on Climate Change (UNFCCC) is an international treaty drafted to deal with climate change. The Kyoto Protocol is a legally binding addition to the UNFCCC.United Nations Framework on Climate Change Signatories to the Protocol (84 countries) agree to the ideas and goals. Countries who have ratified (nearly all except the US) are bound by its requirements. Signatories are categorized into three groups based on their responsibilities: - Annex I: Industrialized countries that have agreed to reduceAnnex I emissions. - Annex II: Developed countries who have to pay for the costs ofAnnex II the emissions reducing technologies of Developing countries. - Non-annex: Developing countries who are not restricted by the Protocol. Although the Protocol is binding, there are no penalties if Annex I countries do not comply. China and India, non-annex countries not bound by the Protocol, are some of the world’s top emitters.

5 Ratification Status as of December 2007 6/13/2008 Ratification means that the countries agree to abide by the obligations stated in the Protocol. Ratification is open to all signatories regardless of whether they are Annex I, Annex II, or Developing countries.

6 Total CO 2 Emissions in 2001 ISCIENCES LLC The Top Ten Carbon Emitters of 2001

7 The Stages of the Kyoto Protocol More attention being paid to the environment. Several multilateral environmental agreements are implemented, beginning with the Ramsar Convention. The Protocol enters into force, but problems occur as countries reveal they cannot meet requirements. Discussions begin on a post-2012 framework despite some opposition. Meetings concerning the future of the Protocol and alternatives will take place. Also, rising temperature threats that scientists have already predicted may occur. 1970s-1980s1990s-2005 2005-20082008-2050 The UNFCCC is drafted. There is an increase in environmental initiatives and the Kyoto Protocol is formulated. The Protocol enters into force in 2005.

8 Pre-Kyoto entry into force: 1970s-1980s Multilateral environmental agreements begin to proliferate, culminating in agreements like Ramsar Convention (1971) and LRTAP (1979).Ramsar Convention LRTAP Decadal meetings are established which include an international discussion of the state of the world’s environment. These meetings are informally known as “summit meetings.” Important environmental reports are published. One of the major successes is the Brundtland Report (1987) which advocates sustainable development and targets pollution and other environmental problems as a significant contributing factor to poverty.Brundtland Report

9 Pre-Kyoto 1970s-1980s ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?

10 Pre-Kyoto Entry into Force: 1990s-2005 The UNFCCC (1992) is drafted marking a significant period during which a collective international decision is made for countries to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions. There are discussions about a binding framework that should be formulated, which would later become the Kyoto Protocol.UNFCCC The Kyoto Protocol (1997) is formulated and opened for signing. It takes years for enough countries to sign the Protocol and enable it to enter into force.Kyoto Protocol Decadal meetings continue to take place and the IPCC releases three reports that warn about the negative effects of climate change.

11 Pre-Kyoto 1990s-2005 ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?

12 Problems with the Protocol revealed as countries realized it would not be possible to meet their reduction targets. Despite some opposition, work proceeded on the development of a post-2012 framework. Kyoto Protocol 2005-2008

13 ! ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ! ?

14 2009 and Beyond One more Conferences of Parties has been set up for 2009 with established discussion topics centered on finding an international response to climate change.2009 Developing countries may be required to reduce emissions for the second commitment period of the Protocol, 2013-2017. Emissions reduction goals have been set by various organizations and conventions. The goal set by the Kyoto Protocol is for emissions reductions of 5.2% below 1990 levels. The IPCC has projected a threat of a 60% increase in greenhouse gas emissions levels by 2030. Scientists in the IPCC believe a 60%-80% emission reduction by 2050 is vital to avoid problems caused by rising temperatures.

15 2009 and Beyond ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?

16 Supporting Documents 1970s-1980s 2005-2008 2008-2050 1990s-2005 Agenda 21 Rio Declaration Forest Principles Convention on Biological Diversity UNFCCC Draft IPCC 2 nd Report First COP Second COP Third COP Fourth COP Fifth COP Sixth COP Seventh COP Marrakech Accords Eleventh COP Ramsar Convention First Earth Summit LRTAP Convention Vienna Convention Montreal Protocol Basel Convention Brundtland Report Twelfth COP Bali Meetings on Climate Change GAO Report on Climate Change Accra Meetings on Climate Change Climate Change Goals Kyoto Past and Future

17 References "Accra talks bode well for future climate change negotiations." UN News Centre. 27 Aug. 2008. UN News Service. 30 Sept. 2008 http:// http:// "Action on Climate Change Post 2012." 3 June 2008 "A New Era Starts." 2005. UNEP. "Background Information." 2006. United Nations Climate Change Conference. "Bali Preparing the After-Kyoto." 3 Dec. 2007. PIME. Basel Convention. Secretariat of the Basel Convention. 3 June 2008 “Climate Change Science” Clover, Charles. "IPCC 4th Report: Climate Change Happening Faster." 18 Sept. 2007.Telegraph Media Group Limited.23 Sept. 2008 "COP15 Copenhagen 2009." United Nations Climate Change Conference. 3 June 2008 Dufresne, Robert. "Kyoto Protocol Implementation Act." Publications List. 27 Nov. 2007. Library of Parliament. "Earth Summit History." Greenpeace. 9 June 2008 "Earth Summit Info." 9 June 2008 Goetze, Darren. "COP-5 in Bonn." Nov. 1999. Sound Science Initiative. IISD. 2006. "IPCC Third Assessment Report." Solving Global Warming. 2007. The David Suzuki Foundation. 19 Sept. 2008 Kyoto Protocol. Team Kyoto 06. 3 June 2008 McCarthy, Michael. "Bush declares he won't sign Kyoto's landmark treaty on global warming." The Independent. 29 Mar. 2001.The Independent.21 Oct. 2008 News on the Kyoto Protocol. 30 May 2008. INDECO. "Ozone Layer Depletion." 23 Nov. 2007. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. Shah, Anup. Climate Change and Global Warming. 29 Dec. 2005. "Sound Science Initiative." 11 Aug. 2005. "The Kyoto Protocol." 2008. The Woods Hole Research Center. "The Ramsar Convention on Wetlands." The Ramsar Convention Secretariat. 3 June 2008 "Top Emitters Meet in Paris this Week." Daily News. 16 Apr. 2008. Energy Saving Trust. 23 Sept. 2008 UNECE. United Nations Economic Commission for Europe. 3 June 2008 UNFCCC. 2008. United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. "United Nations Climate Change Conference." World Resources Institute. 3 June 2008

18 The Secretariat United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change is the secretariat for the Kyoto Protocol. Drafted in 1992 to slow global warming. A framework ratified by 189 countries, all of which agreed to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions amounts. UNFCCC hosts a conference of parties (COP) every year to discuss climate change and the Kyoto Protocol. GO BACK

19 Kazakhstan Kazakhstan is not considered a developed country and therefore is not included in the requirements of the Kyoto Protocol. However, the nation would like to be added into the list of developed countries that are assigned emissions reduction amounts and be bound by the commitments of the Protocol. Since Kazakhstan did not declare this when the protocol was adopted, the ratification process is still taking place because their assigned emissions target is currently being figured out. GO BACK

20 Top Ten Carbon Emitters of 2001 ISCIENCES LLC GO BACK

21 China is the Top Carbon Emitter GO BACK

22 The Ramsar Convention Date: February 2 nd, 1971 A treaty is signed that defines the framework for international cooperation in wise use/conservation of wetlands. The purpose of the Convention is to improve the conservation and management of internationally significant wetlands by creating an international framework for funding and monitoring wetlands and wetlands management. GO BACK

23 United Nations Conference on the Human Environment in Stockholm, Sweden Date: June 5 th – 16 th, 1972 An agreement for leaders from around the world to meet every 10 years to discuss the state of the world's environment. It is the beginning of the creation of an international environmental law, as well as the beginning of political and public awareness of environmental issues. At this summit, an action plan is produced, called the Stockholm Declaration, which deals with various environmental issues including human rights, pollution prevention, and natural resource management. The conference also spurred the development of the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), which helps developing countries to implement environmentally sustainable policies, as well as encourages sustainable development. UNEP headquarters is in Nairobi. GO BACK

24 LRTAP Convention Date: November 13 th, 1979 The beginning stages of the Convention on Long-Range Transboundary Air Pollution on Further Reduction of Sulfur Emissions can be traced back to the 1960s when scientists found a relationship between sulfur emissions in Europe and the acidification of Scandinavian Lakes. It is the first international legally binding instrument to combat problems of air pollution over a broader region. Its objective is to protect humans and their environment against air pollution and to endeavor to limit and, as far as possible, gradually reduce and prevent air pollution, including long-range transboundary air pollution. Its date of entry into force is March 16th, 1983. GO BACK

25 United Nations Conference on the Human Environment in Nairobi, Kenya Date: 1982 This is not considered an official "summit." The summit occurred at the height of the Cold War. Due to this tension between nations, the meeting was unsuccessful at producing actionable outcomes. GO BACK

26 World Commission on Environment and Development Date: 1983 The WCED, also known as the Brundtland Commission, is created by the United Nations. The Commission, named for WCED Chair Gro Harlem Brundtland, Prime Minister of Norway and Director General of WHO, addresses growing concerns about depleting natural resources and the effect on social and economic development. The establishment of the Commission marks a significant time when the UN is recognizing that issues in the environment are a global problem, and that it is important for nations to establish policies for sustainable development. GO BACK

27 Vienna Convention Date: March 22 nd, 1985 The Vienna Convention on the Protection of the Ozone Layer touches on the dangers that can be caused from a depletion of the ozone layer. In 1981 the Governing Council set up a working group to prepare a global framework convention for the protection of the ozone layer. Its aim is to secure a general treaty to tackle ozone depletion. GO BACK

28 Montreal Protocol Date: September 16 th, 1987 The Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone adopted freezes levels of production and consumption of certain identified ozone depleting substances. Later amendments to the Montreal Protocol require a complete phase out of production and consumption by 2010. The creators of the 1987 Montreal Protocol are the parties to the Vienna Convention for the Protection of the Ozone Layer. GO BACK

29 The Brundtland Report is Published Date: 1987 The World Commission on Environment and Development (WCED) publishes the Brundtland Report, also known as “Our Common Future.” The report states that critical global environmental issues are the primary source of poverty in the South, as well as non- sustainable consumption in the North. The Report’s goal is to unite efforts for global sustainable development and environmental practices. GO BACK

30 IPCC is Created Date: 1988 The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is created by the World Meteorological Organization and UNEP. Scientists from around the world meet to research climate change since the threats are becoming so serious, and they feel increasing pressure to combat the depletion of the ozone layer. GO BACK

31 Toronto Conference on Climate Change Date: June 27 th -30 th, 1988 The conference is considered to be the first major climate change conference, attended by more than 340 participants from 46 countries. They all recommend developing a global framework convention that will protect the atmosphere. Participants agree that there should be a 20% cut in global carbon dioxide emissions by 2005, and an eventual 50% cut. GO BACK

32 Basel Convention is Adopted Date: March 22 nd, 1989 The Basel Convention is adopted to combat the dumping of hazardous wastes in developing countries by developed countries. The Basel Convention establishes a global notification and consent system for the transboundary shipments of hazardous wastes. The main objectives of the Convention is to reduce transboundary movement of hazardous wastes, minimize creation of hazardous waste, and prohibit their shipment to countries lacking the capacity to dispose of hazardous wastes in an environmentally sound manner. GO BACK

33 The Climate Action Network is Established Date: March 1989 The Climate Action Network (CAN) is considered to be the umbrella NGO in international, national, and local negotiations pertaining to climate change and the environment. The CAN is made up of 300 environmental NGOs and has the overall goal of decreasing human-induced climate change. The CAN’s future meetings include representatives from the various NGOs meeting to strategize matters concerning the latest environmental developments. The CAN will later also make significant contributions to the development and adoption of the Kyoto Protocol. GO BACK

34 IPCC Releases First Report Date: 1990 The report says that the planet is warming due to human activities. It states that human activities are increasing the concentrations of greenhouse gases (CO2, methane, CFCs, and nitrous oxide), and will inevitably enhance the natural greenhouse effect causing a warming of the Earth's surface. The report also states that CO2 is one of the main contributors to the enhanced greenhouse effect. The IPCC predicts an increase of 0.3 degrees Celsius in the global mean temperature per decade during the 21st century, which is greater than any increase seen over the past 10,000 years. GO BACK

35 United Nations Conference on the Human Environment in Rio De Janeiro, Brazil Date: June 3 rd -14 th, 1992 The summit is considered the largest gathering of world leaders. They create the Rio Convention which calls all parties to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to the 1990 amounts. At the Rio Earth Summit a non-legally binding authoritative statement of principles for the management, conservation and sustainable development of all types of Forests is produced. One of the major achievements at the summit is an agreement on the Climate Change Convention, which eventually will lead to the Kyoto Protocol. Participants also agree that there should be no activities done on other countries' land that would cause harm to the environment or go against the culture. GO BACK

36 UNFCCC Drafting Date: 1992 The drafting of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) is done in preparation for the Rio Summit of 1992. The UNFCCC is a non-binding agreement ratified by 189 states to address climate change. All countries involved agree to report their emissions amounts for greenhouse gases. It is decided that a binding framework will be necessary in order to make a difference and so negotiations will begin to take place. GO BACK

37 COP in Berlin, Germany Date: March 28 th – April 7 th, 1995 The Conference of Parties meet for the first time in Berlin, Germany. The participants discuss concerns about the countries' abilities to meet the commitments constructed under the convention framework. The concerns are expressed in a document called the "Berlin Mandate." The Mandate creates a 2 year time period to negotiate a choice of actions for countries to pick from which include future options of how to address climate change in a way that will be the best from both economic and environmental viewpoints. It also exempts non- Annex 1 countries from any more binding obligations. GO BACK

38 IPCC Releases 2 nd Report Date: 1995 The report further confirms that human activities are causing drastic climate change. It states that the greenhouse gas concentrations are constantly increasing. It is the only report to include a chapter on the economic impacts of climate change. GO BACK

39 Second COP in Geneva, Switzerland Date: July 8 th -19 th, 1996 At the conference, countries that are part of the Rio Convention admit that climate change is threatening. There is also an acceptance of the findings on climate change made by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in its second report. Participants reject the idea of having uniform and harmonized policies because countries favor flexibility. GO BACK

40 Third COP in Kyoto, Japan Date: December 1 st – 10 th, 1997 The binding framework that the states had talked about is agreed upon; they title it the Kyoto protocol. The Protocol states that developed countries will have to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions to a certain amount. The binding amounts will have to be met between the years 2008-2012. Most industrialized nations agree to the legally binding reductions to levels below 1990 amounts; the U.S. does not. GO BACK

41 Fourth COP in Buenos Aires, Argentina Date: November 2 nd -13 th, 1998 Participants of the conference discuss the implementation of Protocol but decide to delay finalization. The resolving of the Protocol’s remaining issues does not happen because it becomes too difficult to reach agreement. As an alternative, a 2 year plan of action is created which will speed up efforts and create mechanisms for finalizing and implementing the Kyoto Protocol; the action plan is to be completed by 2000. GO BACK

42 Kyoto Protocol Opened for Signing Date: March 16 th, 1998 The Kyoto Protocol is open for signatures at the United Nations Headquarters in New York City, and 84 countries sign it between March 16 th, 1998 and March 15 th, 1999. GO BACK

43 Fifth COP in Bonn, Germany Date: October 25 th – November 5 th, 1999 At the meeting, 166 countries discuss the details of Kyoto Protocol that are necessary for its implementation. The participants are able to agree on the steps needed in order to make decisions on the issues stated in the plan of action created at the fourth COP. During the meeting, an effort is also made to finish a possible negotiations text, but the developing countries believe this is premature and so it does not happen. The developing countries want more time for countries to make proposals on how the flexibility mechanisms should operate. There is also a large push to have an early entry into force of the Kyoto Protocol by 2002 (U.S. does not want this). However, Russia was the final country that needed to ratify in order to reach the 55% of industrialized nations required by the Kyoto Protocol, so the 2002 goal did not end up happening. GO BACK

44 Sixth COP in the Hague, Netherlands Date: November 13 th -24 th, 2000 This COP is considered a failure due to a disagreement on carbon sinks. The US wants to include carbon sinks in the agreement, but very few other nations agree. European nations do not believe that the US should be allowed to meet greenhouse gas reduction targets without actually cutting emissions. This conflict is the main reason for the collapse of the meeting. GO BACK

45 IPCC Release 3 rd Report Date: 2001 The IPCC release their third report which represents the advances that scientists have made in the understanding of climate change and its possible effects. There were three major parts: 1) The Scientific Basis section confirmed that climate change is happening and that humans are the ones causing it. This section also states that the effects may be worse than was previously thought 2) The Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability section states that the impacts of climate change on humans and nature will be negative. It states that there is “potential for catastrophe” 3) The Mitigation Section states that there are options that exist for slowing down climate change, many of which could begin immediately with “no net cost.” GO BACK

46 Bush Declares Won’t Ratify the Kyoto Protocol Date: March 28, 2001 George Bush announces to the world that the United states will not be implementing the Kyoto Protocol. Bush claims that the agreement leaves out too many countries under its rules, and so does not agree with the Protocol. Bush claims that he is going to find an alternative plan that will include more of the world in its guidelines. GO BACK

47 Seventh COP in Bonn, Germany Date: October 29 th - November 9 th, 2001 At the meeting, 180 Nations finally agree on how to enforce the Protocol. Even with the agreement, however, some concerns arise that there will be little impact on the emissions, even with 55% of greenhouse gas emissions being accounted for. The US is not present during the meeting. GO BACK

48 The Marrakech Accords Date: 2001 Nations come together in Marrakech and create detailed rules for the implementation of the Protocol. The objective of the agreement is to finalize the agreement on operational details for commitments on reducing emissions of greenhouse gases under the 1997 Kyoto Protocol. The accords also are meant to finalize the agreement on actions to strengthen implementation of the UNFCCC. GO BACK

49 The World Summit on Sustainable Development Date: August 26 th – September 4 th, 2002 The World Summit on Sustainable Development (WSSD) convenes in Johannesburg, South Africa. At the summit, the United Nations discuss sustainable development. The main outcome of the summit is the Johannesburg Declaration, which further encourages sustainable development and mentions that multilateralism is the path forward. The United States is absent because George Bush boycotted the summit and so does not attend. GO BACK

50 World Climate Change Conference Date: September 9 th – October 3 rd, 2003 The climate talks are meant to be an opportunity for scientists to meet to discuss the latest research on climate change and its impacts. However, the talks end up being focused directly on the Kyoto Protocol. There is much doubt about whether Russia's president, Vladimir Putin, will ratify the Kyoto Protocol as he previously stated he would. This ends up receiving most of the attention of the conference instead of the scientists’ input. GO BACK

51 Russia Ratifies the Kyoto Protocol Date: November 18 th, 2004 This ratification is crucial and will fulfill the requirements necessary for the Protocol to take effect. The countries become collectively responsible for 55% of greenhouse gas emissions. Russia completes the 55% that is needed for the Protocol to enter into force. GO BACK

52 Eleventh COP in Montreal, Canada Date: November 28 th – December 9 th, 2005 It is the largest intergovernmental climate conference since the Kyoto Protocol was adopted. The issues discussed include rules and commitments by different countries, how to help developing countries reduce gas emissions, how to measure emissions reductions, and accountability. GO BACK

53 South Africa Is Unready for Emission Cap Date: October 18 th, 2005 South Africa’s environment minister, Rejoice Thizwilondi Mabudafhasi, states that, for economic reasons, it is too soon to set targets for the developing world to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Currently, the developing countries are exempt from the emissions caps of the Kyoto Protocol. The environment minister also believes that the large greenhouse gas emitters of the developing world (i.e. South Africa, India, China, and Brazil) will have to find ways to curb emissions before targets are created. GO BACK

54 Australia Rules Out Post-Kyoto Limits Date: October 31 st, 2005 Australia states that negotiating new greenhouse gas emissions levels for years after 2012 is not necessary. This dampens the hopes that a major environment meeting in Canada in November will be able to set new targets. Ian Campbell, Australia’s Environment Minister, stated that most countries will not be able to meet their Kyoto targets and that creating new limits will not accomplish anything. GO BACK

55 Technology Transfer Seminar Date: March 8 th -9 th, 2006 At the seminar, 144 participants from 11 Asian countries discuss technology transfer under the UNFCCC and Kyoto Protocol. It provides an opportunity for government representatives and policy makers to go over the best practices for technology transfer throughout Asia. The participants want to discuss the key success factors, as well as the best way to implement them. GO BACK

56 Canada Requests Leniencies Date: May, 2006 Canada makes the statement that it will be willing to remain in the Kyoto Protocol after 2012, but only if it receives breaks on meeting the required targets. In a report to the United Nations, the country states that the second phase of the Kyoto Protocol should be more lenient with longer deadlines, voluntary targets, and exceptions for Canada’s resource based economy. GO BACK

57 Date: June 2 nd, 2006 In Bonn, figures are submitted by the governments to the United Nations Climate Secretariat showing that emissions of carbon dioxide in at least 17 of 40 industrialized countries are missing targets set under the Kyoto Protocol. 17 Countries Behind on Targets GO BACKVIEW TABLE

58 International Conference on CDM Date: September 19 th -21 st, 2006 At the conference, participants discuss the Protocol in relation to Saudi Arabia. The objective is to provide those participating with an understanding of financial benefits that CDM can provide. It is important to increase the awareness of newer mechanisms such as CCS, or Carbon Dioxide Capture and Storage, which is the separation of carbon dioxide from industrial sources and its transportation to a storage location where it is isolated from the atmosphere. GO BACK

59 Twelfth Conference of Parties in Nairobi, Kenya Date: November 6 th -17 th, 2006 The participants of the second session of the Conference of the parties serving as the meeting of the parities to the Kyoto Protocol in Nairobi, Kenya adopt the first amendment to the Protocol that means including Belarus in the emissions reduction commitments stated under Annex B of the Protocol. The major focus of the meetings is long-term action on climate change, as well as what will happen after the first commitment period ends. Although it is not considered to be one of the most memorable COPs or CMPs, it still marks an important point for negotiators and post-2012 planning. GO BACK

60 Washington Declaration is Made Date: February 16 th, 2007 The heads of state from Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Russia, UK, US, Brazil, China, India, Mexico, and South Africa agree on an outline to the successor of the Kyoto Protocol. It is non-binding and is hoped to be in place by 2009. The agreement is a global cap and trade system that would apply to industrialized nations and developing countries. GO BACK

61 UNFCCC Asian Regional Workshop Date: April 11 th -15 th, 2007 The purpose of the UNFCCC Asian Regional Workshop on Adaptation is to highlight Asian Concerns about climate change adaptation and vulnerability reduction. It is taking place because a request was made at the tenth Conference of Parties for the UNFCCC to organize workshops and meetings for small island developing nations to enable information exchange and assistance in identifying adaptation needs and concerns. GO BACK

62 Canada States Protocol Not Possible Date: 2007 Canada claims that the Kyoto Protocol is not possible for the country. It creates an alternative plan that does not put a hard ceiling on greenhouse gases the way that the Kyoto Protocol does; instead, it makes intensity targets for emissions. The head of the international body overseeing the Kyoto Protocol says that this new plan does not guarantee that emissions will go down. There is worry that, since Canada is refusing to comply with the Kyoto Protocol, other countries might begin to do the same. Also, Canada is seen to be the role model for the U.S., so if Canada gives up, then the U.S. will have more reason not to ratify and comply with the Protocol. GO BACK

63 Vienna Climate Change Talks Date: August 28 th, 2007 The purpose of the meetings in Vienna is to discuss what will happen after the Kyoto Protocol ends. One of the main topics of discussion in the meetings is a United Nations report which shows how energy efficiency could bring significant cuts in emissions at low cost. The Vienna talks are meant to set the stage for the major international meeting that would be held in December of 2007. GO BACK

64 Australia Ratifies Kyoto Protocol Date: December 3 rd, 2007 Australia ratifies Kyoto Protocol in Bali. This is a very significant ratification because it results in the US being the only Annex I country who did not ratify the Protocol. GO BACK

65 Bali Climate Change Talks Date: December 2 nd – 15 th, 2007 The fifteen day Bali meeting on climate change focuses on the question of how to save the climate from the continuous harmful emissions. The conference is considered a success because there is an overall agreement on three important goals: 1. to launch negotiations on the global agreement of climate change issues, 2. to create an agenda for these negotiations, and 3. to agree to conclude the negotiations by 2009. The Bali Road Map is created here, which includes the Bali Action Plan. They both discuss the three goals and create a course for a new negotiating process that will become a post 2012 international agreement on climate change, also considered to be the second commitment period. At the Bali meetings, a provision is added that requires emission reports to be submitted and validated for each country. GO BACK

66 IPCC Release 4 th Report Date: November 17 th, 2007 The IPCC’s 4 th report states that halting global warming completely is no longer possible. It says that increased heat waves and floods cannot be avoided, and will happen at lower temperatures than predicted. The report also predicts that greenhouse gas emissions will rise by 90% by 2030. The most vulnerable regions to climate change are noted to be Africa, Asian mega deltas, and the Arctic. Also, in the countries seen in being at the highest risk, the people who will be impacted the most are stated to be the elderly, the young, and the marginalized. GO BACK

67 Top Emitters Meet in Paris Date: April 2008 The world’s top greenhouse gas emitters meet in Paris to work out ways to slow global warming. The participants were E.U, U.N, U.K, U.S, Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, France, Germany, India, Indonesia, Italy, Japan, South Korea, Mexico, Russia and South Africa. There are hopes for an agreement by the end of 2008 on curbs by the countries that emit 80% of the world’s greenhouse gases. Nations express skepticism about Bush’s late agreement for a need for more climate action. GO BACK

68 Bangkok Climate Change Talks Date: March 31 st – April 4 th, 2008 These talks mark the beginning of a new negotiating phase. A new work program is created to make a future international climate pact that will successfully halt the increase in global emissions within the next 10-15 years and halt the increase in emissions by mid-century. GO BACK

69 China is Declared Top Carbon Emitter Date: April 15 th, 2008 A general consensus emerges that China has become the top carbon emitter, as well as one of the world’s biggest polluters. This presents a problem because it is not included in the binding framework of the Kyoto Protocol since it is not an Annex I developed country. Researchers warn that any unchecked future growth will dwarf emission cuts made by rich nations under the Kyoto Protocol. GO BACK

70 Bush Announces Emission Reduction Goal Date: April 16 th, 2008 Bush announces he is setting a national goal for the US to curb growth of greenhouse gas emissions by 2025. He also repeats his objections to the Kyoto Protocol, saying that technology would be the solution to the climate issues. He says that the US is willing to build a plan focused around technology into a binding international agreement if other nations are willing. GO BACK

71 GAO Report on Climate Change Date: May 2008 The U.S. Government Accountability Office (GAO) releases a report that includes expert opinions on actions that might be considered to address climate change based on potential benefits, costs, and uncertainties of the actions, as well as strengths and limitations. It is agreed that Congress should use a market-based mechanism to create a price on greenhouse gas emissions, which the majority currently think should be between $1 and $20 per ton. The experts believe that a tax could be created to set a fixed price on every ton of emissions. There would also be a market established for trading permits to emit specific amounts of greenhouse gases. It is considered to be a hybrid approach between taxes and the cap-and-trade method. GO BACK

72 Bonn Climate Change Talks Date: June 2 nd -13 th, 2008 These talks are currently taking place. Various governments are meeting to continue preparing for the Bali Mandate that was created at the 13th Conference of Parties. It is what will help the governments to agree on a new climate deal by 2009. During this time period, the governments will also have to progress toward an ambitious outcome at the Poznan COP. They will need to figure out the options for a negotiations framework that will be agreed upon in Poznan and negotiated in 2009. GO BACK

73 Climate Change Talks in Accra, Ghana Date: August 21 st – 27 th, 2008 The main purpose of the talks is to negotiate a new international climate change deal, as well as to work on the emissions reduction rules set under the Kyoto Protocol. This meeting is meant to be a springboard for official negotiations to be started in Poznan, Poland in December and finalized in Copenhagen in 2009. Ideas and proposals for a future deal are compiled and will continue to be compiled until the Poznan meeting. The topic of deforestation is also discussed in relation to the effect it has on speeding up climate change. About 1,600 participants attend with delegates from 160 different countries. This is the last major international conference before the meeting takes place in Poznan. GO BACK

74 Fourteenth Conference of Parties in Poznan, Poland Date: December 1 st -12 th, 2008 The Conference of Parties results in governments committing to negotiate an international response to climate change in 2009. The meeting does not make progress on creating a new binding agreement by the end of 2009. It is emphasized that Barack Obama will be taking direct involvement in negotiating a new agreement in 2009. The meeting also focuses on the Kyoto Protocol’s Adaptation Fund, which now grants direct access to developing countries. GO BACK

75 Fifteenth Conference of Parties in Copenhagen, Denmark Date: December 7 th – 18 th, 2009 COP 15 takes place in Copenhagen, Denmark. Denmark is to host the UN’s very important climate summit in 2009 when a “new Kyoto agreement” is to fall in place. At least 10,000 participants from the entire world are expected to attend the summit, which will be the most significant since the Kyoto meeting in 1997. The EU’s state and government leaders previously set the stage for making a new global climate agreement about the limitation of the emissions of greenhouse gas at the latest in 2009. The summit is imperative if the agreement is to be legal and effective when the Kyoto protocol will expire at the end of 2012. GO BACK

76 Bali Road Map Date: 2009 Bali Roadmap should be ready for signing. A new pact to reduce greenhouse gases once Kyoto Protocol expires in 2012. It was created at the Bali Conference sponsored by the UN. The roadmap includes an agreement on the Adaptation Fund that will deliver funds for developing countries to deal with the impacts of climate change. The roadmap also includes an agreement to review how industrialized countries will meet emissions reduction targets in the second commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol. It also represents a program that is meant to strengthen the UN climate change regime beyond the initial Protocol concepts - this would mean a clear involvement of the developing countries. GO BACK

77 Kyoto Protocol Goal to be Reached Date: 2010 Goal by 2010: 5.2% reduction of greenhouse gas emissions below the 1990 Annex 1 countries. This is considered the overall goal of the Kyoto Protocol. GO BACK

78 Kyoto Protocol 2 nd Commitment Period Date: 2013-2017 In 2005 negotiations began for a second commitment period to possibly take place. There are goals to bring the United States, China, and India into the negotiations since they are large emitters of greenhouse gases. GO BACK

79 Prospective Temperature Growth Date: 2020 The IPCC projects a possible temperature growth of one degree Celsius. This would mean: 30-40% of all known species are threatened by extinction; coral reefs are bleached; heat waves, floods, and draughts will be causing a higher mortality rate amongst humans. GO BACK

80 Emission Reduction Goal to be Reached Date: 2020 Goal to reach emissions reductions discussed in Bali meeting in 2007. The goal range was between 25% and 40% reductions. GO BACK

81 Emission Reduction Goal to be Reached Date: 2020 In 2001, the EU Sustainable Development Strategy stressed that the EU should aim to reduce greenhouse gas emissions after 2012 by 1% per year up to 2020. It also specified that CO2 emissions alone should be reduced by 10% by 2020. This would in turn reduce emissions of pollutants that have adverse effects on public health. GO BACK

82 Energy Investment Goal to be Reached Date: 2030 According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), huge energy investment decisions need to be in place by 2030 that will determine the mix of energy technologies and magnitude of greenhouse gas emissions well into the 2 nd half of the century. In Europe alone, this new mix of energy technologies could save up to 40% of energy. GO BACK

83 Prospective Emission Growth Date: 2030 According to the IPCC, even though total emissions from industrialized nations that ratified the Kyoto Protocol will fall by a few percent, global emissions are actually expected to rise by 60% in 2030. This large increase would be caused mainly by the growth from the United States and China. The Protocol has not done much to reduce the growth of global emissions, and since the United States and China account for most of the world's emissions, but are not included in the Kyoto Protocol for different reasons (the United States did not ratify it and China is not obligated to meet the requirements since it is a non-annex country), they will cause the emissions to continue to increase. GO BACK

84 Emission Reduction Goal to be Reached Date: 2050 Representatives from the UK project that in 2050 the world's developed countries would need to have cut greenhouse gas emissions by 60 to 80%. If this doesn't happen, then experts believe that there will be a temperature rise above 2-2.5 degrees Celsius. This would mean a higher occurrence of heat waves, droughts, and heavy rainfall. It would also adversely affect agriculture, forests, water resources, industry, and human health. Developing countries and poorer areas of the populations would be the most seriously harmed. GO BACK

85 Prospective Temperature Growth Date: 2050 The IPCC projects a possible temperature growth of two degrees Celsius. This would mean: Biological systems experience massive change causing adverse effects on biodiversity and the supply of food and water worldwide. Also, millions of people would be living in severely flood- threatened regions. GO BACK

86 Annex I Countries Australia Austria Belarus Belgium Bulgaria Canada Croatia Czech Republic Denmark Estonia European Community Finland France Germany Greece Hungary Iceland Ireland Italy Japan Latvia Liechtenstein Lithuania Luxembourg Monaco Netherlands New Zealand Norway Poland Portugal Romania Russian Federation Slovakia Slovenia Spain Sweden Switzerland Turkey Ukraine United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland United States of America GO BACK

87 Annex II Countries Australia Austria Belgium Canada Denmark European Economic Community Finland France Germany Greece Iceland Ireland Italy Japan Luxembourg Netherlands New Zealand Norway Portugal Spain Sweden Switzerland United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland United States of America GO BACK

88 Source: National greenhouse gas inventory data for 1990 to 2006, U.N Framework Convention on Climate Change Status of Kyoto Targets Orange = Not meeting targets Gray = Achieving targets Note: The Protocol sets goals for individual countries in order to achieve a combined international emissions reduction of at least 5% below 1990 levels. Goals include reductions (ex. Germany must reduce to 79% of 1990 levels) as well as allowed increases (ex. Spain may increase emissions levels to 115% of 1990 levels).

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