1. OUTLOOK FOR LATVIA ENERGY, GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS AND CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS 29-30 June 2004, EEA, Copenhagen Janis Rekis Latvian Investment and Development Agency

2. GHG emissions Energy consumption Outlook

3. GHG emissions

4. Latvian GHG emissions trend by gas excluding LUCF, Gg & %

5. Latvian GHG emission trend by sector gases excluding LUCF, Gg & %

6. GHG emission trend in energy sector by sub sector and gas, Gg & %

7. Energy consumption

8. GDP, GEC (TPES) and GHG indexes Indexes of energy and GHG intensities

9. Gross energy consumption (GEC), PJ & %

10. Structure of GEC in 2002, % Local energy sources

11. RES share in GEC and RES-E share in gross electricity consumption

12. Energy consumption in transformation, PJ

13. Consumption of DH, PJ

14. Final Energy Consumption, PJ & %

16. Fuel prices, US$(1994)/MWh

17. Forest density in administrative regions

18. Scenarios

19. GHG emission forecast according 3rd National Communication, Gg ???

20. Forecast of GDP

21. CO2 emissions in energy sector, Gg different growth rates for useful energy demand Annual growth of (1999-2034) ScenarioDM1DM2DM4DM6 Useful energy demand1.2%1.4%1.7%2.1% Electricity consumption1.4%2.1%2.8%3.8%

22. Gross energy consumption in DM2, PJ

23. Final energy consumption in DM2, PJ

24. Required additional RES-E, TWh with RES-E target 49.3%

25. CO 2 reduction, Gg with RES-E target 49.3%

26. CO2 in energy sector in DM2 case, Gg (1) with CO2 emission constraint Allowed cumulative CO2 emissions in energy sector for 45 years (1992-2036), Gg without constraint +30% above stabilization412542 +15% above stabilization375896 stabilization in level 2000 after 2001339250

27. CO2 emissions from energy sector, Gg (2) with CO2 emission constraint

28. CO2 emissions from energy sector, Gg (3) deterministic cases vs. stochastic cases