Presentation on theme: "Does Man-made CO2 really cause Global Warming ? Just running the numbers."— Presentation transcript:
Does Man-made CO2 really cause Global Warming ? Just running the numbers
or the FUTILITY of Man-made Climate Control by the limitation of Man-made CO2 emissions
The importance of the Greenhouse Effect On average the temperature of the planet is ~15⁰C This is sustained by the atmospheric Greenhouse Effect ~+33⁰C Without the Greenhouse Effect the planet would be at an un-inhabitable average temperature of about ~-18⁰C The Biosphere and Mankind need the Greenhouse Effect.
Achieving the Greenhouse Effect of 33⁰C The Greenhouse Effect is achieved by a mixture of Greenhouse gases: Water Vapor ~95.0% CO2 ~3.5% Other Greenhouse gases: Methane, Nitrous Oxide and CFCs: accounting for their greater Greenhouse potential. ~1.3%
But CO2 is not all Man-made the agreed natural “pre-industrial level” ~280 parts per million ~74% natural out-gassing from slightly warmer oceans and from the biosphere in the last 200+ years, since the end of the little ice age ~73 parts per million ~19% Man-made input from burning fossil fuels etc, a high estimate of ~27 parts per million ~7%
Impact of the various agents on the Greenhouse Effect The Man-made CO2 molecule is in no way different nor is it particularly potent when compared with any naturally occurring CO2. The following calculations measure the impact of the various causes of the Greenhouse Effect in terms of degrees centigrade (⁰C) to achieve the total of 33⁰C.
Of the 33⁰C Greenhouse Effect Water Vapor accounts for ~31.35⁰C Carbon Dioxide accounts for ~1.24⁰C Natural~1.15⁰C Man-made~0.09⁰C Other Greenhouse gases: Methane, Nitrous Oxide and CFCs Natural~0.30⁰C Man-made~0.12⁰C
Proportions of the Greenhouse Effect measured in ⁰C
Man-made Effects on Global Temperature As can be seen Man-made CO2 emissions have less temperature impact than Man-made emissions of other Greenhouse gases: Man-made CO2 ~0.09⁰C Man-made Methane, Nitrous Oxide and CFCs~0.12⁰C This is because the other gases even at much lower concentrations are more potent Greenhouse gases.
The Big Question Thus ~0.09⁰C is the full amount of temperature reduction that could be achieved by closing the whole World’s Carbon economies. So how are the World’s politicians going to limit warming to only +2.00⁰C by controlling something that can only ever have a Total Effect worldwide of ~0.09⁰C. ? This clearly shows the FUTILITY of any Man-made attempts to Control Climate via CO2
The extent of the temperature correction that could be achieved by CO2 reductions The following table shows the impact on global temperature in millionths of ⁰C of each territory: A.closing the Carbon economy of entire nations 100%. B.reducing CO2 emissions by just 20%, which in itself would be sufficient to destroy the western style economy of any developed nation. for example in the UK a 20% emission reduction could only ever result in a reduction global warming by an undetectable 348 millionths of a ⁰C.
Impact in millionths' of ⁰C of CO2 reductions A. 100%: close whole B. 20% carbon carbon economyreduction France 1,172 / 1,000,000 °C 234 / 1,000,000 °C South Africa 1,268 / 1,000,000 °C 254 / 1,000,000 °C Mexico 1,334 / 1,000,000 °C 267 / 1,000,000 °C Iran 1,428 / 1,000,000 °C 286 / 1,000,000 °C Italy 1,450 / 1,000,000 °C 290 / 1,000,000 °C South Korea 1,453 / 1,000,000 °C 291 / 1,000,000 °C Canada 1,665 / 1,000,000 °C 333 / 1,000,000 °C United Kingdom 1,738 / 1,000,000 °C 348 / 1,000,000 °C Germany 2,462 / 1,000,000 °C 492 / 1,000,000 °C Brazil 2,787 / 1,000,000 °C 557 / 1,000,000 °C Japan 3,955 / 1,000,000 °C 791 / 1,000,000 °C India 4,618 / 1,000,000 °C 924 / 1,000,000 °C Russia 4,784 / 1,000,000 °C 957 / 1,000,000 °C United States 17,588 / 1,000,000 °C 3,518 / 1,000,000 °C China 18,662 / 1,000,000 °C 3,732 / 1,000,000 °C Rest of World 20,437 / 1,000,000 °C 4,087 / 1,000,000 °C
The Bjorn Lomberg assertion These figures amply justify Bjorn Lomberg’s clear assertion that: “even if the Kyoto Protocol were to be implemented in full and applied world-wide that such strenuous action could only ever diminish by a matter of days a temperature rise by the year 2100”. of course if it were occurring at all by then.
Is CO2 a pollutant or the stuff of life ? Via plants, Carbon dioxide (CO2) a trace gas in the atmosphere, that all animals (including man) exhale + sunlight + water (H2O) creates and maintains the very Oxygen (O2) we all need to breath and simultaneously creates carbohydrates, and thus all other organic compounds. That is the real STUFF OF LIFE. Rile against that and you negate the ability of all the world’s biosphere to exist on planet earth.
Is CO2 a pollutant ? But, it is as if: entire political establishments: particularly, the US Environmental Protection Agency EPA, who have declared that CO2 is a dangerous pollutant under the Clean Air Act as well as the UK Department of Environment and Climate Change and the UK Royal Society much of the scientific establishment all Green activists. have collectively forgotten all their elementary school biology about photosynthesis and the carbon cycle.
Unmitigated Joy So the probability is that any current global warming, if it is continuing, is not man-made and that in any case it could be not be influenced by any remedial action taken by mankind. This prospect should be greeted with UNMITIGATED JOY.
Unmitigated Joy - if this is so: concern over CO2 as a man-made pollutant can be forgotten. it is not necessary to damage the world’s economy to no purpose. were some warming happening, it would lead to a more benign, productive and healthy climate for the biosphere and also for all mankind. any extra CO2 is already increasing the fertility of all plant life, reducing water demand and enhancing world food production. a warmer climate, within natural variation, would provide a future of greater opportunity and prosperity for human development. This has been well proven in the past and would especially benefit the third world.
Worthwhile Green matters But the unwarranted concentration on reducing CO2 emissions is deflecting serious and well-meaning Green activists from more immediate and worthwhile objectives. There are many more investments that should be prioritised for the benefit of mankind. This is especially so in the third world including: controlling malaria. clean water. stopping deforestation. AIDS prevention etc.
Worthwhile Green matters It remains absolutely clear that our planet is vastly damaged by many human activities, including: environmental pollution. over fishing. forest clearance. industrial farming. farming for bio-fuels. and other habitat destruction, etc. These are all things that should be tackled as priorities.
Nonetheless This is not to say that the world should not be seeking more efficient ways of generating its energy, conserving its energy use and stopping damaging its environment. There is a real need to wean the world off the continued use of fossil fuels on the grounds of: security of supply. increasing scarcity. rising costs. their use as the feedstock for industry rather than simply burning them.
Summary: just running the numbers Greenhouse Effect33.00⁰C Non H2O Greenhouse gases GHGs ~5%1.65⁰C CO2 ~75% of all GHGs1.24⁰C Worldwide Man-made CO2 <7% of total CO20.087⁰C UK contribution to CO2 ~2%0.00174⁰C expressed as millionths ⁰C1740 / 1,000,000⁰C Thus this is the maximum contribution to the Greenhouse Effect that closing down the whole UK Carbon economy could ever have on Global Temperature.
Reference Much of this original data was published in 2003 at http://www.geocraft.com/WVFossils/Greenhouse_data.html As the website says “Water vapour, the most significant Greenhouse gas, comes from natural sources and is responsible for roughly 95% of the Greenhouse Effect. Among climatologists this is common knowledge but among special interests, certain governmental groups, and news reporters this fact is under-emphasized or just ignored altogether.” Conceding that it might be "a little misleading" to leave water vapour out, they nonetheless defend the practice by stating that it is "customary" to do so!
Reference Much of this original data was published in 2003 at http://www.geocraft.com/WVFossils/Greenhouse_data.html Note that this report shows Man-made CO2 at only 3.27% of total atmospheric CO2 rather than the 7% used in these calculations. At 3.27% all the figures shown here for the total Man-made contribution to the Greenhouse Effect would be even lower at 0.0405⁰C. The 7% was calculated as 5 times the current worldwide annual emissions using a half life of 5 years for CO2 in the atmosphere. See also http://www.withouthotair.com/http://www.withouthotair.com/