1. Community Development under Ever Changing Climate Regime: Lessons Learnt from Southeast Asia Mainland Countries Anond Snidvongs Southeast Asia START Regional Center (SEA START RC) c/o Chulalongkorn University and National Research Council, Bangkok, Thailand

2. Outline Local and global threats Lessons learnt from Cambodia, Thailand and Vietnam Knowledge synthesis process Application of benefit/cost analysis

3. Problems of Scales between Events and Actions Household Farm Days/weeks Months/season Village Years District Province Country Decade Climate Cycle ENSO Century Climate Weather Events

4. Pressing Local Issues in Coastal Zone Economic: More service-based economy Social: Globalization in terms of livelihood, social cohesion and structure, less harmony with local environment (and climate) Environment, ecosystem and natural resource: Generally deteriorate Coastal inundation: –Short term causes (storm surge, monsoon driven coastal flooding, inland floods, tsunami) –Long term causes (coastal erosion, land subsidence, sea level rise)

5. Regional/Catchment Scale Issues Monsoon and typhoon variability Geology and tectonic Mega project developments and urban centers draw in resources (including human) Land use and agriculture policies: Food and energy crops Climate and upstream hydrologic changes

6. Trend of typhoon-class storm in South Vietnam (Khanh Hua, Ninh Thuan, Binh Thuan, Ba Ria-Vung Tao, Ben Tre, Tra Vinh, and Minh Hai (Ca Mau) 5-year sums Natural cycle Possibly climate change

7. Trends of Cyclonic Storms in the Central Gulf of Thailand

8. Vertical Displacement of Thailand Coastline CGPS data from Survey Engineering Department, Chulalongkorn University

9. Land subsidence (sediment layer depression only) around Bangkok (1986-2007)

10. Threats from Global Agenda GHG driven climate change and sea level rise (mean and extreme frequencies) S&T that serve ‘city’ livelihoods, capital cost for technologies (intellectual property)

11. GHG Driven Climate Change PRECIS RCM Output: Days with T > 35 o C SRES A2 SRES B2

12. GHG Driven Climate Change PRECIS RCM Output: Change in Rain Days SRES A2 SRES B2

13. GHG Driven Mean Sea Level Rise SRES A2 (High Emission) from DIVA

14. Why can’t problem be solved: Lessons learnt from past and present 1.Governments (usually dominate): Concern on where to get money, spend least and get visible (politically impact) quickly 2.Communities and civic societies: Lose faith and trust with centralized government (and its data and science), more inward focused, emotional, ‘idolization’ 3.Entrepreneurs and developers: Protect investments, want most value per dollar invested, uncertainty about future business environment lead to short-term returns 4.Scientists: Get involve and personal, does not understand roles, take side and carried away, sectoral and discipline oriented, fragmented and not holistic, not sufficiently funded, make too big research problems for limited funding, inability to communicate uncertainty and risks

15. Knowledge Synthesis through Participation Proactive/preventive scenario-based approach to avoid future conflicts of developments To bridge current gaps and adjust mentality/attitude among stakeholders Create sense of common belonging and togetherness Appropriate communication approaches

16. Some Success Factors for Knowledge Synthesis Fully participate to ensure sense of owbership and belonging Repetitive and patient Logical foresighting but with imagination Use maps and GIS as working platforms Not aim for agreement but allow for alternate options for development and how can they be harmonized with future environment and among one another

17. Roles of Scientists/Academia Not to become another part in the conflict Do not dominate but to provide scientific rationales Encourage for diversity Innovative communications Knowledge management

18. Benefit/Cost Analysis as a Communication Tool Inundation of coastal rice fields due to combinations of strong monsoon breaks, mean sea level rise and land subsidence Mean sea level rise (~22 cm/30y) + Land subsidence (~27 cm/30y) = Net sea level rise ~50cm/30y Klong Prasong, Krabi, Thailand

20. Strong Monsoon Breaks Frequency from PRECIS Land u v On shore monsoon surge In situ Extreme Sea Level (m) Occurrence Frequency (per 30y) Rice Field Area below Sea Level (Rai) 0.00300 0.25300 0.50300 0.7530546 1.0025998 1.25181,189 1.5081,357 1.7531,622 2.0011,793

21. 3 km dyke to 0.75 m Mangrove Rice 0.5 0.75 1.0 1.25 1.5 1.75 2.0 Saved for 5/30y 546 Rais 25/30 y Total damage cost: 921 M Baht /30y Dyke construction cost: 60 M Baht Damage cost reduction: 82 M Baht /30y

22. 5 km dyke to 1.5 m Mangrove Rice 0.5 0.75 1.0 1.25 1.5 1.75 2.0 3/30 y Saved for 27/30y 1,357 Rais Total damage cost: 151 M Baht /30y Dyke construction cost: 100 M Baht Damage cost reduction: 852 M Baht /30y

23. 7 km dyke to 2.0 m Mangrove Rice 0.5 0.75 1.0 1.25 1.5 1.75 2.0 Saved for 30/30y 1,793 Rais Total damage cost: 0 M Baht /30y Dyke construction cost: 140 M Baht Damage cost reduction: 1,003 M Baht /30y

24. Benefit:Cost of Dykes Optimum ~5 km at 1.5m B:C ~8.5

25. Damage Compensation Payment per rai per year for fields in intervals Dyke (km) Dyke Cost (MB) Total Damage Compens ation (MB/30y) 0.5- 0.75m 0.75- 1.0m 1.0- 1.25m 1.25- 1.5m 1.5- 1.75m 1.75- 2.0m 001,00330,00025,00018,0008,0003,0001,000 36092125,000 18,0008,0003,0001,000 48071118,000 8,0003,0001,000 4.5903558,000 3,0001,000 51001513,000 1,000 6120541,000 71400000000

26. Option 1: Optimal Infrastructure Cost Invest 100 M Baht to construct 5 km dike at 1.5 m above MSL Prepare 151 M for installed compensation (from government or shared cost by farmers/public sector) for damage over 30 y (about 5 M Baht per year) Total adaptation cost 251 M Baht Budget Bureau will prefer this option

27. Option 2: Most Security Invest 140 M Baht to construct 7 km dyke at 2 m above MSL Rice field will be completely protected and no compensation will be needed Total adaptation cost 140 M Baht Farmers and politicians will prefer this option

28. Retreat (Mixed Farming) Option Raise mud crabs in the lower area to provide compensation to damaged rice in the upper area Dig crab ponds down to -1 m below MSL

29. Mangrove Rice 0.5 0.75 1.0 1.25 1.5 1.75 2.0 998 Rais Crab Crab ponds to 1.0 m above MSL Total rice damage cost: 172 M Baht /30y Crab pond excavation cost: 278 M Baht Crab profit: 2,396 M Baht /30y Net profit: 2,224 M Baht /30y

30. Mangrove Rice 0.5 0.75 1.0 1.25 1.5 1.75 2.0 1,357 Rais Crab Crab ponds to 1.5 m above MSL Total rice damage cost: 29 M Baht /30y Crab pond excavation cost: 406 M Baht Crab profit: 3,257 M Baht /30y Net profit: 3,228 M Baht /30y

31. Mangrove Rice 0.5 0.75 1.0 1.25 1.5 1.75 2.0 1,793 Rais Crab Crab ponds to 2.0 m above MSL Total rice damage cost: 0 M Baht /30y Crab pond excavation cost: 596 M Baht Crab profit: 4,303 M Baht /30y Net profit: 4,303 M Baht /30y

32. Benefit:Cost of Crab Ponds Optimum ~1.1 m above MSL B:C ~8.2

33. Option 3: Optimum Mixed Farming By raising mud crabs in area below ~1.1 m (above MSL) and grow rice above that contour line Cost to excavate land to make crab pond ~280 M Baht Net profit from crabs will be ~2,500 M Baht /30y of which ~150 M Baht will be used to compensate rice farmers who loss their crops due to salt intrusion B:C ~8.2 which is closed to dyke option but may be more ecological friendly??

34. Climate Change Knowledge Management Center, Thailand A national center under the National Scientific and Technology Development Agency, Ministry of Science and Technology Provide knowledge support for systems and sectors to develop in harmony with future climate and other constraints/opportunities Multi scale approach (information gathering, dissemination, communication)

35. Thank You